Operation Featherweight: Month 9, Week 2, Day 2.

My last post on the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) came all the way back on March 26th (26/3/15). This was of course the start of the latest round of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and the international sanctions that have been imposed as a result.

Those talks have actually been hugely important to the fight against ISIL - particularly in Iraq - because one of the reasons that US President Barack Obama has justified his failure to fight ISIL is that he's foolishly believed that ISIL can function as the US' ally in those talks by putting pressure in Iraq's neighbour Iran. Hopefully now a framework agreement has been reached Obama will have seen the error of his ways and realised that defeating ISIL should be the US' - and everybody elses' - main priority.

Despite the Iran talks anti-ISIL operations continued in Iraq and last Tuesday (31/3/15) the city of Tikrit which sits around 150km (90 miles) north of Iraq's capital Baghdad was fully liberated from ISIL. Although the exact situation on the ground in Tikrit has always been difficult to gauge when the Iraqi Security Force (ISF) operation was suspended on March 14th (14/3/15) I got the impression that as soon as a handful of key ISIL fighting positions were knocked out ISIL's defense of the city would very quickly collapse. With the US-led coalition finally joining the operation and carrying out their first bombing missions on March 23rd (23/3/15) this appears to be exactly what happened with the liberation of the city coming just 6 days later.

That reminded me just how perilous the situation in Kobane became and just how miraculous the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) fight-back which saw them not only avoid defeat but liberate the city and the surrounding Canton truly was.

In the immediate aftermath of the liberation of Tikrit the ISF have still had to undertake the vast task of making safe several thousand landmines and Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) that ISIL have left littering the city. A substantial proportion of those IED's are considered chemical weapons having been rigged to release a cloud of chlorine gas when detonated which rules out controlled explosion which is usually the quickest method of IED disposal.

The task of making the freshly liberated Tikrit safe have been substantially hampered by the actions of the Shia militias attached to the ISF who are know collectively as the Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF). They marked the liberation of the city with a wave of violence of their own which saw around a hundred buildings burnt down and shops looted. When I first heard about this my first thought was how much is reminded me of the UK's August 2011 riots so it's certainly not the worst thing that has ever happened in a warzone. Plus contrary to some of the reports in the western media the majority of those the buildings targeted didn't belong to Sunnis but to former members of Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party who sided with ISIL allowing Tikrit to be captured in the first place.

However pointing out that it wasn't a Shia on Sunni sectarian rampage is not the same thing as me defending the PMF or excusing their behaviour. In fact looting and reprisals of this type are considered war crimes contrary to Article 33 of the 4th Geneva Convention (1949). In this type of situation they are also likely to be hugely counter-productive tactically because any Sunni or Ba'athist who initially helped ISIL but now wants to change their allegiance are going to look at what happened in Tikrit and decide that they may be better off sticking with ISIL.

It must be said that the Iraqi government have not in any way tolerated the behaviour of the PMF and immediately issued instructions that anyone engaging in looting or other criminal behaviour in Tikrit be arrested.

To my mind the whole situation further serves to underline the coalition's failure to participate in the Tikrit operation from the start. With Obama seemingly terrified of actually defeating ISIL and constantly coming up with fresh excuses not to fight them the Iraqi government have been forced to rely on the PMF as the only willing partner. If the coalition had been prepared to work with the ISF from the start the entire operation could have been carried out by the Iraqi army and police with the PMF being left to take care of security in their local areas.

Now that the situation in Tikrit has been brought under control the ISF have begun the grim task of uncovering the mass graves left by ISIL including the 1,566 Iraqi soldiers who were massacred at Camp Speicher. So far they have identified 10 mass grave locations and recovered at least 47 bodies.

In response to their defeat at Tikrit there are rumours and reports that ISIL have begun to abandon Iraq with their core of foreign fighters returning to Syria. Those who remain in Iraq are said to be Iraqi members of the group who have long been exiled from the country along with what you could describe as "local hires" who were recruited - often forcibly - when the group swept into Iraq last summer. ISIL's mission in Iraq now seems to be to defend the retreat back into Syria by clinging onto areas such as Mosul, Ramadi and Fallujah for as long as possible. ISIL fighters along the Sinjar/Shingal frontline are even said to have offered the Kurdish Peshmerga a truce which apparently gave the Peshmerga a good laugh.

Within Syria itself the coalition were handed a significant set-back on March 28th (28/3/15) when the City of Idlib which sits around 250km (150 miles) north of the capital Damascus and around 15km (9 miles) south-west of the contested City of Aleppo was seized from the Syrian government by a coalition of rebels led by the Al Qaeda affiliated Al Nusra Front (ANF). I probably have more sympathy for Al Qaeda then any member of the US-led coalition. However I've not forgotten that they are a terrorist group and their objective within Syria is to create an ungoverned space from where they can launch terror attacks internationally. That is why they are listed alongside ISIL in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 2170 (2014) authorising military force to destroy them.

The fall of Idlib City is particularly embarrassing for the US because the rebel coalition that has formed up behind ANF includes many of the so-called "moderate" groups that the US intends to train and equip in Turkey. The day before Idlib fell Turkey announced that the US-led training mission had been suspended for unspecified reasons. However it now clearly needs to be scrapped entirely.

The loss of Idlib City also creates a significant strategic headache for the coalition. While I appreciate that many members of that coalition are not prepared to ally themselves with the Syrian informally it would be quite useful for the Syrian government to be kept in place so they can be used as something of an anvil that the coalition can hammer ISIL against. Then once ISIL and ANF have been defeated the coalition can return finding a solution between the Syrian government and the rebel groups with the added advantage of the Syrian government owing the coalition a favour.

The fact that it is a very bad idea to continue to try to overthrow the Syrian government while trying to defeat ISIL and ANF was underlined on April 1st (1/4/15) when ISIL able to take advantage of the Syrian government's loss of Idlib City to enter and quickly seize control of the Yarmouk camp for Palestinian refugees. Although I'm not going to get involved in the arguments surrounding the Palestinians right of return at this particular moment established in 1957 Yarmouk is effectively a Palestinian suburb of Damascus and sits just 8km (5 miles) from the centre of the Syrian capital.

I think ISIL's main reason for capturing Yarmouk is that controlled by Palestinian militias rather then the Syrian military it has always been a weak-point in the defence of the capital. Being able to control an area so close to the Syrian government's seat of power is a huge propaganda victory for ISIL giving the impression that they will soon be able to capture Damascus itself although that's not entirely accurate.

I also think that by targeting a Palestinian refugee camp ISIL are trying to force the Syrian government to fight them there. That will allow ISIL to play the anti-semitism card by comparing the Syrian government's treatment of Palestinian refugees to Israel's in the hope of portraying themselves as the true Muslim protectors of the Palestinian people. The US' Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power seems keen to assist ISIL in this aim by condemning the Syrian government's use of barrel bombs in Yarmouk rather then the ISIL invasion. Presumably she still thinks the bombs the US is dropping on ISIL explode into rainbows and lollipops.

ISIL's advance into Yarmouk has been just as brutal as their advance into anywhere else with civilians being summarily beheaded in the streets and the UN describing the situation as "beyond inhumane." Following now four years of war the situation for the 18,000 residents of Yarmouk has been just as perilous as it is for many Syrian civilians. The advance of ISIL has further worsened the situation with food, water and medical supplies all running low.

Yesterday (6/4/14) the UNSC issued a statement demanding that aid agencies be granted immediate access to Yarmouk. Based on the way they've behaved up until I'm sure that ISIL will immediately comply(!)

17:20 on 7/4/15 (UK date).