Rather then provide an update on how the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is going I thought I'd take the opportunity to complain about how difficult writing these updates are.
One of the main problems is that rather then happening in isolation events in Iraq and Syria are largely inter-connected. Therefore if I talk in detail about an event I also have to talk in detail about all the other events and try and predict how they may be affected. Friday (17/4/15) actually provided a rather good example of the problem.
In my post that day I mentioned that on the previous Monday (13/4/15) ISIL had released a video entitled "We Will Burn America." Although I didn't get to see the video before it was taken down it seemed to be aimed at ISIL's existing supporters and was intended to portray the group as leading the fight against the crusader Christians - as ISIL views the US-led coalition - rather then a nasty, nihilistic organisation that spends most of it's time attacking other Muslims.
By using footage of their murders of James Foley and Moaz al-Kasasbeh alongside file footage of the 9/11 attacks ISIL were keen to show their supporters that they can do harm to the US-led coalition in the hope of inspiring those supporters to carry out lone-wolf style attacks in coalition countries - particularly the US.
As I was writing that post ISIL attempted to reinforce the message of the video by carrying out an attack against the US Consulate in Erbil - the capital of Iraq's Kurdish region. The plan seems to have been to detonate a car bomb on the street outside the Consulate and then the Consulate's security team responded to the first explosion use the chaos to drive a second car bomb - possibly carrying gunmen - into the Consulate compound.
Unfortunately for ISIL the Kurdish Peshmerga who are responsible for security in Erbil were alert to the threat and intervened to stop the moving vehicle before the parked vehicle was detonated. As a result the vehicle never made it into the Consulate compound at it's two occupants were killed outright at the scene. Sadly did succeed in detonating the parked car bomb which destroyed a cafe killing two Turkish Kurds and injuring 18 other people. However I'm hearing today that the person who detonated that bomb has been captured.
Although dramatic I have to say that within the context of a war I'm not that concerned about Friday's attack in Erbil. After all it is one thing to be able to sneak a small group of terrorists across the front lines in order to carry out a one-off attack that ultimately failed but it is quite another to sustain a covert cell capable of carrying out multiple attacks.
I'm actually much more concerned by the situation in the Iraqi capital Baghdad. Coinciding with ISIL advance into Anbar province in July of 2014 a covert ISIL cell started to operate carrying out dozens of bombings a week that killed hundreds. Fortunately that cell was captured and broken up in January 2015 leading to a few months of quiet. Unfortunately a new cell has begun to emerge and although initially it's attackers were amateurish and ineffective as they've gained more experience they've begun to become more deadly. For example on Friday in Baghdad 5 separate bomb attacks took place killing at least 31 people primarily in Shia neighbourhoods but members of the Sunni Sahwa fighters. Breaking up this latest cell is just another thing to add to the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) long list of priorities.
Despite Friday's bombings it has been a successful couple of days for the ISF with the main success coming at the Baiji oil refinery. You may remember that last Saturday (11/4/15) ISIL launched a fresh attempt to capture the Baiji refinery from the ISF. Initially this was repelled but on Monday (13/4/15) ISIL second attempt to seize the refinery. This was slightly more successful with ISIL managing to enter the refinery site and take control of some key areas including the distribution point and the garrison. The bigger problem though was that ISIL succeeded in surrounding the large refinery site cutting the ISF troops there off from reinforcements. This Saturday (18/4/15) the ISF managed to break ISIL's siege of the Baiji refinery and by Sunday (19/4/15) the reinforcements the ISF brought in succeeded in completely expelling ISIL from the refinery site.
As I mentioned when ISIL launched their first assault on the Baiji refinery it and the town of Baiji itself were one of the main starting points for the operation that liberated Tikrit some 50km (30 miles) to the south. Therefore I won't consider the Tikrit operation to be at an end until the area around it - including Baiji - has been secured. Key to this task is the roughly triangular area to the east between Tikrit, Baiji and Kirkuk known as the Hawija district with the town of Al-Hawija at its core.
Over the weekend the Peshmerga supported by coalition air-strikes took a huge step in completing this task by launching an offensive into the area. By Sunday (19/4/15) they'd succeeded in advancing some 84km^2 (32 miles^2) south-west around the main Kirkuk to Tikrit road liberating some 11 villages as they went. This puts the Peshmerga around 130km (80 miles) from Tikrit and around 25km (15 miles) from Hawija. If the ISF are capable of moving north-west from Tikrit it won't be long before the area is completely cleared of ISIL. Today ISIL launched a counter-attack on the Peshmerga from Hawija but that was repelled.
Unfortunately before the Tikrit operation had been fully completed the Shia Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) and some of the Anbar Sunni tribes who are loyal to the Iraq government wanted to rush in and launch a separate operation to liberate the cities of Fallujah and Ramadi that sit to the west of the capital Baghdad. In their haste this provoked ISIL into launching it's own Anbar offensive which saw the group making significant gains in and around Ramadi and by last Wednesday (15/4/15) the city looked poised to fall entirely into ISIL's hands.
Since then ISF reinforcements backed by coalition air-strikes have stabilised the situation by halting ISIL's advance. ISIL however are still able to shell positions within the city and local tribal leaders have warned that with ammunition and other supplies running low they would struggle to repel another ISIL advance. It is obviously important that Ramadi is reinforced to prevent any further ISIL advances but I think it must be said that completing the Tikrit operation needs to be the priority over starting a fresh operation elsewhere.
16:45 on 20/4/15 (UK date).
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment