Operation Featherweight: Month 3, Week 3, Day 1.

Yesterday the US-led coalition air-dropped 27 bundles of weapons, ammunition and medical supplies provided by the Kurdish Peshmerga in Iraq to the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) who have been defending the strategically important city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab which sits just 1km (0.6 miles) from Syria's border with Turkey. Of those bundles 26 were successfully recovered by the YPG while the 27th missed it's target and was seized by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) who quickly released a video showing their success. What they have been a lot less keen to show you is what happened shortly afterwards when a coalition air-strike destroyed the enitre area around that 27th bundle.

Despite this air-drop which the YPG estimate will sustain them for roughly a week the battle of Kobane is still not over and the city is still far from secure. Although they have been forced out of most of the city ISIL continue to occupy three large sections of the east of the city close to the northern border crossing, the governance district and the south-eastern entrance to the city. This gives ISIL control of around 20% of the Kobane. They also continue to control the majority of the area surrounding the city including Mistenur hill to the south-east although they have been forced off Tall Shair hill to the west and the area between Tall Shair and Kobane.

From these positions ISIL have been able to continue raining artillery, mortar and tank fire down on the city. Last night ISIL launched something of a fresh assault on the northern border crossing area leading to significant fighting. However it is not yet clear whether this was a substantial attempt by ISIL to seize more territory, rescue fighters that are trapped in the area or simply harassment type raids intended to wear down the defenders ahead of a full assault. Whatever the intention the YPG were able to repel these attacks with the help of 6 coalition air-strikes that targeted ISIL mortar and other firing positions.

This latest wave of fighting goes to the core of the negotiations over bringing Peshmerga forces into Kobane via Turkey which Turkey promised to open shortly after the coalition air-drop. Although you can never have too many of them the YPG in Kobane don't really need large numbers of troops to reinforce them. What they need instead is a small number of highly trained field commanders with specialist skills such as acting as as forward air controllers. The main thing the YPG need though is advanced medium and heavy weapons such as mortars and MILAN-type anti-tank missiles.

At the moment if the YPG are faced with a tank, suicide truck bomb, heavy machine or even a well defended sniper position their only option is to request a coalition air-strike. As far as I can tell this involves the YPG telephoning someone in Turkey who in turn will telephone someone in Iraq who will speak to an American who will request an air-strike. If approved it will take an hour or so for the aircraft to turn up and carry out the strike. By that time the target may well have killed the YPG fighters requesting the strike, moved so the strike happens dangerously close to the YPG positions or has simply withdrawn from the area entirely. If the YPG had more advanced weapons they could simply take out any target as soon as they identify it making their defence that much more effective and freeing up coalition aircraft for other tasks.

As such rather then being about the number of Kurdish fighters being moved through Turkey and where they've come from (Iraq, Turkey or Syria) discussions with Turkey should be more focused on what types of equipment those fighters can bring with them.

One thing that is becoming increasingly apparent is that ISIL are growing deeply frustrated by their inability to seize Kobane. As a result they yesterday lashed out by launching a fresh attack in the Sinjar mountains region of Iraq. The main target here seems to have been the village of Sharfadin which contains one of the few remaining shrines belonging to the Yazidi religion. As such ISIL seem to have launched this attack in order to demonstrate that they are still capable of wiping out people they view as infidels and destroying their holy sites. Unfortunately for ISIL this effort failed with the attack being repelled by Peshmerga fighters following a day of fighting.

Also yesterday ISIL launched a suicide truck bomb against a Peshmerga check-point close to the Mosul Dam which is around 120 km (70 miles) north-west of the Iraqi Kurdish capital Arbil and 40km (24 miles) north-west of ISIL held Mosul. This suicide bomb was destroyed by the Peshmerga before it reached the check-point meaning that nobody other then the driver was killed in the attack. Also it was not followed up by any other ISIL vehicles or fighters meaning that it was not an attempt to seize the dam. As such it seems best described as ISIL throwing something of a childish tempter tantrum. 

Within Iraq's capital Baghdad ISIL's campaign of suicide bombings has continued with 12 people being killed in twin bombings in the predominately Shia district of Talbiyah this morning. This brings to 62 the total of people killed in bombings in Baghdad in the past 5 days. As I mentioned yesterday the purpose of these bombings seems to be to provoke Baghdad's Shia population into carrying out revenge attacks that will force Baghdad's Sunni population into supporting ISIL allowing ISIL to take control of Baghdad from within. Sadly there does seem to be some evidence that this is beginning to work with the Iraqi police in Baghdad's Karrada district engaging in gun battles overnight with the Shia Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia who are demanding better protection for Baghdad's Shias.

The events close to Sinjar and in particular at Mosul Dam and Baghdad serve to highlight what a serious mistake it was for the coalition to abandon operations in Iraq in favour of swanning off to bomb oil refineries in Syria. It is beyond dispute that the coalitions forces are at their strongest in Iraq because even the YPG will freely admit that the Peshmerga are larger in number and better equipped. Dwarfing both them and ISIL is the Iraqi military which even operating at only 50% strength still numbers some 135,000 men who are armed with tanks and other battlefield weapons. This massive advantage in strength - ISIL only number around 32,000 - should have been used to impose a series of quick defeats on ISIL that would have broken their morale reducing the risk of revenge attacks such as that seen in Canada where a "lone-wolf" jihadist today killed a Canadian soldier and wounded another.

In short by deciding to start bombing Syria before the operation in Iraq was completed US President Barack Obama has made exactly the same mistake that his predecessor George W Bush did when he decided to invade Iraq before the operation in Afghanistan was completed. Given this faithful recreation of the last decade of US history it seems a shame that Obama can't muster even a little bit of Dubya's "You're Either With Us Or Against Us!" bravado.

17:20 on 21/10/14 (UK date).