At this point last week it looked as though the city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab which sits just 1km (0.6 miles) from Syria's border with Turkey was on the verge of being over-run by fighters from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Kobane was surrounded from the west, south and east. ISIL fighters were in control of 40% of the city on the eastern side and they were advancing on the northern border crossing that provided Kobane and its predominately Kurdish residents with its only link to the outside world.
It seemed then that ISIL were just hours away from securing a corridor from their stronghold of Raqqa - some 140km (84 miles) away - to Turkey through which they could smuggle oil out of Syria in return for weapons and fighters being smuggled in. If ISIL had reached the border with Turkey it would also have provided a pre-text for Turkey to send ground troops into Syria. As Turkey has previously tried to force its North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) partners into a war against the Syrian government whilst blocking any attempts to fight ISIL and at the same time attacking the Kurds who have been fighting ISIL this would have been an absolutely disaster in the war against ISIL which would have only served to make them stronger.
Since last Saturday (11/10/14) the tide in the battle for Kobane seems to have turned firmly back in favour of its Kurdish defenders. First the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) fought ISIL to a stop. Then on Monday (14/10/13) they repelled yet another ISIL attempt to seize the northern border crossing before breaking out to re-capture the hill of Tall Shair which sits 4km (2.4 miles) to the west of Kobane. As of Thursday (16/10/14) the YPG had forced ISIL fighters from the south and the west of the city re-capturing the south-western entrance to Kobane in the process. That further secured both the city and the stretch of open land between Kobane and Tall Shair. ISIL now control less then 20% of Kobane and their forces are largely trapped into two small sections in the east of the city around the hospital and the so-called "governance sector" which contains the YPG's former HQ. However the YPG have yet to re-gain control of the south-eastern entrance to the city
In this latest effort to defend Kobane from ISIL's advances the YPG have been aided by a substantial increase in the level of air-support provided by the US-led coalition. Although this support has fallen far short of the coalition's capacity on Monday and Tuesday (15/10/14) the coalition carried out 39 air-strikes which were largely focused on destroying ISIL buildings, troop staging areas and weapons and ammunition stores on the out-skirts of Kobane. On Wednesday (16/10/14) through Thursday the coalition carried out a further 14 air-strikes. However the key differences to emerge is that it now appears that the most ISIL positions on the out-skirts of Kobane have been either totally or partially destroyed. As a result the latest round of strikes have focused on buildings inside of Kobane itself which hold ISIL fighters and were being used as sniper and other fighting positions.
This type of close air-support means that there is now very little distance between the ISIL positions being struck and positions being held by YPG fighters. In a chaotic urban warfare environment this leads to a very real possibility that the YPG rather then ISIL will be killed in the strikes. In fact on Thursday there were reports - later disproved - that 5 YPG fighters had been killed in a strike meant for ISIL. As a result we may have reached the point that air-strikes have become ineffective by posing a greater risk to the YPG then ISIL. Therefore it may be better for the YPG to try and liberate the remaining areas under ISIL control without air-strikes or simply just contain ISIL within those areas until they either surrender or can be picked off by sniper fire. That said drones armed with Hellfire-type missiles have proved themselves to be terrifyingly efficient at conducting highly targeted strikes within this type of urban warfare setting.
Sadly all these gains by the YPG and losses by ISIL do not mean that the battle for Kobane is over and that the city is suddenly secure. During the fighting YPG within the city have been significantly weakened/degraded with 258 fighters killed (ISIL lost 374) along with substantial amounts of ammunition, food, water and medical supplies being used up. This means that unless Kobane is relieved and re-supplied soon it would be much easier for another big push from ISIL to over-run the city. As part of its efforts to assist ISIL in any way possible Turkey is still refusing to open its border with Syria to allow Kobane to be re-supplied by land.
If this obstruction from Turkey continues then in the coming hours and days the coalition is going to have to mount air-drops to Kobane. Not only would this re-supply significantly strengthen Kobane's defence it would also send the very strong message to ISIL that Kobane is being protected by the coalition and ISIL will not be allowed to seize it.
11:45 on 17/10/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 15:00 on 17/10/14 (UK date) to add;
Turkey's continued support for ISIL in defiance of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 2170 (2014) appears to be starting to leave the nation increasingly isolated on the international stage. Yesterday Turkey was defeated by New Zealand and Spain in its efforts to secure a seat on the UNSC. Despite the fact that vote went to a third round run-off between Spain and Turkey it always seemed to be a case of Spain falling just short rather then Turkey ever coming close. In fact when it became a straight choice between Turkey and Spain Turkey ended up losing 10 votes.
Although these votes are always done by a secret ballot this would have been a perfect opportunity for the US to announce that is was not supporting Turkey in order to send the message that if Turkey continues to refuse to allow the coalition to use United States Air Force (USAF) base Incirlik in the fight against ISIL then the coalition will withdraw its support for Turkey.
Further evidence of Turkey's increased isolation emerged yesterday when the US confirmed that over the weekend it had held direct talks with the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) which the US has designated a terrorist organisation at Turkey's request. Basically what has been happening is that the US has been trying to make the war against ISIL go on for as long as possible while it searches for this mysterious moderate Arab opposition to ISIL along with other assorted Unicorns.
Meanwhile the Netherlands have given permission for its citizens to go and fight alongside the Kurdish Peshmerga in Iraq if they so wish. The UK has sent the Peshmerga heavy machine guns alongside troops to train them in their use. Germany has been supplying the Kurdish YPG with anti-tank missiles and other advanced weapons and has made clear that it intends to continue doing so regardless of what objections Turkey raises.
Therefore the US appears to have entered into these discussions with representatives of the PKK under severe duress from its NATO allies. As such the discussions are at a very early stage and the US is clearly not yet ready to announce that it will be asking to ask the Kurds to act as the ground forces in the coalition against ISIL. However it does seem that the meeting did provide an opportunity for the PKK to pass of details of ISIL positions in and around Kobane that were then hit by coalition air-strikes in the following days. This however does fall short of the real-time targeting that is required.
The reason why this face to face meeting between the US and representatives of the PKK has been kept so quiet is because Turkey has convinced the European Union (EU) who in turn have convinced the US that the PKK are a Marxist terrorist organisation. As a result I should probably clear up a few mis-conceptions about the PKK.
The main one of these is that the PKK actually only represent around 5% of the Kurds. For example the PKK aren't even the dominant party in Kobane which has always been a Kurdish stronghold. So the PKK and the YPG are most certainly not the same thing although obviously the people who already have para-military experience do hold key positions within the YPG. As such saying that all Kurds are terrorists because of the PKK is just as irrational as saying that all Muslims are terrorists because of ISIL.
Founded in 1978 the PKK are part of the radicalism of the 1970's alongside the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa, the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) in Northern Ireland, the Red Brigades in Italy and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) in Palestine. This golden age of international terrorism occurred during the height of the Cold War when there was a stark political choice between being either Capitalist or Communist with no middle ground. As a result all these groups that had non-economic disputes with Capitalist governments would play up their Marxist tendencies in order to form allegiances with each other and gain support. Since then the ANC have gone on to govern South Africa for 20 years and have so far singularly failed to turn it into a Communist nation. Meanwhile the PLO have moved so far away from their Marxist roots that most people have long forgotten that they ever had Marxist roots. As such I think that the allegation that the PKK are Communists is more then a little melodramatic.
In terms of violence the PKK along with the PLO have always sat at the more militant end of the spectrum. However they have always conducted themselves as a rebel army rather than a terrorist group. That is to say that all of the PKK's attacks have been directed against legitimate military targets such as Turkish soldiers and the Turkish security forces such as the police. The PKK have never carried out bombing campaigns against civilian targets and certainly have never shown any interest is carrying out Islamist-style mass casualty attacks. In fact during the 36 years that the PKK have been in existence only 185 civilians have been killed in any of their operations which is an incredibly low collateral damage rate for any military force. So if we are going to refuse to help the Kurds because they are terrorists then there is absolutely no-one in the Syria conflict that the coalition can support and we're going to have to invent a whole new word for what ISIL are.
Despite their increasing international isolation there are no indications that Turkey is going to side with the coalition over ISIL by allowing the coalition to use Incirlik. This is on the verge of becoming a major problem because if Kobane is hardened as a target then everything that ISIL have done up until now indicates that they will simply start going after softer targets instead. These softer targets are likely to be in and around Baghdad in Iraq and ISIL has already started launching waves of suicide attacks in Baghdad's Shia neighbourhoods. If ISIL do switch their focus to Baghdad the threat they pose can easily be contained by the coalition mounting "Operation Northern Watch" style air patrols over the front lines. However before they can do that they need a decision on whether Incirlik is to be used or whether they need to make alternative plans.
In order to plug the gap left by the indecision over Incirlik the UK has decided to deploy armed Reaper drones from a base in Kuwait. Although they lack a substantial punch these Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) drones can patrol the skies over Iraq for long periods of time and can take limited action to disrupt ISIL ground operations when the need arises.
On a final note I should point out that the main reason why UK Prime Minister David Cameron is coming out of this fight against ISIL looking rather good while US President Barack Obama is starting to look like a dangerous incompetent is very simple. While Obama seems to be telling his Generals what to do in order to deal with concerns about his Democrat Party's electoral chances Cameron is simply asking his Generals what needs to be done.
16:15 on 17/10/14 (UK date).
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