Wednesday 1 October 2014

Operation Featherweight: Month 2, Week 4, Day 4.

Following widespread criticism of their operations on Monday (29/9/14) the US-led coalition against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) spent Tuesday (30/9/14) concentrating on more populist targets in both Iraq and Syria. They also provided public information about what they struck and where which is something they've been doing inconsistently throughout the operation.

In Syria they carried out three air-strikes close to Kobane/Ayn al-Arab which is around 140km (84miles) north of the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa and just 1km (0.6miles) from the border with Turkey. This is the Kurdish city that has been under attack from ISIL for several weeks and now appears to have been completely surrounded. The coalition's failure to provide support to Kobane/Ayn al-Arab has been seen as a major strategic failure because by allowing ISIL to advance they are being handed a massive propaganda victory while at the same time putting hundreds of thousands of Kurds at risk of extermination and other crimes against humanity.

The fall of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab would also hand a massive practical victory to ISIL by giving them a clear route to smuggle oil out of and fighters and weapons into Syria. It also massively complicates the mission because with Turkey itself being threatened by ISIL it increases pressure for Turkish ground troops to enter the fight. Given that Turkey has fought a 30 year civil war against Turkish Kurds and has happily supported ISIL in the hope of overthrowing the Syrian government the presence of Turkish troops on the ground in Syrian Kurdistan would make an already complicated situation even more unstable.

Despite the fact that stopping ISIL's advance on Kobane/Ayn al-Arab quite clearly being a strategic necessity the coalition strikes continue to be distinctly half-hearted. In Tuesday's operations they destroyed 2 ISIL rocket launchers, an ISIL artillery piece and damaged a second artillery piece. Although these strikes won't have made ISIL's life any easier they lack the intensity and co-ordination with Kurdish fighters on the ground needed to do real damage to ISIL in order to stop their advance.

Although they seem to lack the strength to carry out decisive strikes in Kobane/Ayn al-Arab the US was able to also carry out strikes in Dayr ar Zawr which is around 140km (84miles) south-east of Raqqa along the Euphrates River towards the border with Iraq and Aleppo which is around 200km (120km) to the west of Raqqa. In Dayr ar Zawr the 2 air-strikes destroyed an ISIL armoured vehicle and an armed "Technical" truck. The single strike close to Aleppo destroyed 4 buildings that are said to be under ISIL control but no details have been given as to what they were being used for. Aleppo is of course a very controversial place for the coalition to be striking because it is largely under the control of the Syrian government so one miss-aimed strike in the area could trigger a war between the coalition and the Syrian government.

The majority of the strikes in Syria (5 in total) were focused right on the border with Iraq where the Sinjar mountains which are around 70km (42miles) west of Mosul cross between Iraq and Syria. These strikes did a substantial amount of damage destroying 4 fighting positions (trenches), an observation post, two staging areas/"facilities," three technicals, one tank and an ISIL artillery piece. These air-strikes were carried out in support of an operation that primarily took place in Iraq.

Within Iraq Kurdish Peshmerga forces mounted an operation Tuesday to clear ISIL from their remaining positions around the Sinjar mountains and re-take the Rabia border crossing which is around 120km (72miles) from Mosul and provides a vital re-supply route from ISIL forces in Iraq. This operation appears to have been a complete success and a major factor in that success seems to be that the Peshmerga were provided with close air-support by the US. In total 9 air-strikes destroyed 5 technicals, an armoured vehicle, 2 transport trucks and a fighting position. Another technical was also damaged. The US also destroyed a technical north-west of Baghdad and a check-point close to Fallujah but neither of these strikes would have had a significant effect in relieving the pressure on Iraqi forces in the area.

Although the US strikes were important in support of the Peshmerga's advance it appears that they didn't go far enough. On Tuesday afternoon the Peshmerga called upon Britain to conduct an air-strike to destroy an artillery position that was attacking them. The British quickly obliged destroying the position with a Paveway laser-guided bomb marking Britain's first offensive strike against ISIL. While the British aircraft were flying that mission they identified a technical in the area and destroyed it with a Brimstone missile which is remarkably similar to a Hellfire missile.

As I write I have no information what - if any - strikes the US and other coalition members have engaged in today. However I do know that Britain has conducted further air-strikes in support of Iraqi forces close to Baghdad. These destroyed an ISIL command and control position with  Paveway bombs and an ISIL technical and a supply truck that were destroyed using Brimstone missiles.

Ideally I wouldn't have to be making the distinction between US air-strikes, British air-strikes, French air-strikes etc because all the air-strikes would be taking place under a central coalition command in order to achieve a unified mission. However with the US still failing to provide that mission and structure and Turkey still refusing to allow the coalition to use Incirlik airbase I'm beginning to wonder if the European members of the coalition (UK, France, Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium) along with Australia should all relocate themselves to the UK's Royal Air Force (RAF) Akrotiri airbase in Cyprus. With at least 30 combat aircraft between them from there they can act as a sort of coalition within the coalition flying round the clock armed patrols across the front-lines of Iraq to destroy offensive ISIL positions and at least stop ISIL from advancing.

Turkey is set to vote on Thursday (2/10/14) on sending ground troops into Syrian Kurdistan. Unless Turkey is prepared to show its commitment to the coalition mission and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution (2170/2014) that authorises it by allowing the coalition to fly from Incirlik there can be no suggestion of their ground forces being allowed to run riot in Syrian Kurdistan. After all it would be hugely awkward if one NATO member was forced to bomb another NATO member.

16:15 on 1/10/14 (UK date).

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