Tuesday 7 October 2014

Operation Featherweight: Month 3, Week 1, Day 1.

Over the past 24 hours the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have continued their assault on the strategically important city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab which sits just 1km (0.6miles) from the Syrian border with Turkey and is around 140km (84miles) north of the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa.

With ISIL forces entering the eastern district of Kobane yesterday the battle has now moved into intense street to street fighting which makes it very difficult for even the people doing the fighting to be sure of what exactly is going on. However it is clear that Kurdish forces have been unable to repel ISIL from the eastern district and ISIL fighters have now also entered the southern and western districts of the city.

The horror at what is taking place has caused widespread outrage and triggered protests in a number of European cities including at the European Parliament building in the Hague which was briefly occupied by protesters last night. This seems to have been enough to shame the US into finally taking some action to help the defenders of Kobane. In the past 18 hours the US led coalition has carried out 8 air-strikes close to Kobane.

These strikes have all been of the pin-prick type that seems to have become the US' signature in this conflict with two aircraft (normally F/A-18's) flying over Kobane every 2 hours or so and dropping a couple of 227kg (500lb) Paveway type bombs on a fighting position (trenches) here or a tank there. While these strikes have been welcomed by fighters on the ground they are far too small and have come far too late to have a decisive effect on the battle. In fact they may actually work to hand ISIL a greater propaganda victory because if Kobane falls they will be able to claim that they have managed to defeat coalition air-power. The strikes though do allow US President Barack Obama to claim that he is doing something and apparently that is the only thing that matters.

Although it would be unwise for the coalition to engage in air-strikes within Kobane itself in order to launch their assault on the city ISIL have had to surround it by placing fighting positions and artillery position in the open areas to the east, south and west of the city including Mistenur Hill which was seized on Sunday (5/10/14). These ISIL positions have been used for several days to shell Kurdish fighters within Kobane in order to weaken the city's defences.

So what the US should do is deploy some its B-1 Lancer bombers which were used in the initial air-strikes on Syria on September 23rd (23/10/14). Unlike the F/A-18 Hornet or similar aircraft which can only really carry 6 x 227kg (500lb) bombs the B1 Lancer can carry up to 84 x 227kg (500lb) bombs. As such a single B1 Lancer can do the job of 14 F/A-18 Hornets meaning that all ISIL positions around Kobane could be almost completely destroyed within minutes. This would obviously stop those ISIL positions firing in support of ISIL fighters within Kobane and would also cut those fighters off from their support/supply teams outside of the city making them much easier for the Kurdish defenders to defeat. It would also in one fell swoop destroy a lot of ISIL's fighters and equipment - that is what Obama means when he says he is going to "degrade ISIL" whether he has realised it or not.

In the absence of effective action by the coalition the prospect of Kobane falling into ISIL's hands seems to be filling the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with glee. While his security forces continue to kill Kurds within Turkey Erdogan is now putting pressure on the coalition to allow him to send in Turkish ground troops to occupy Syrian Kurdistan. Erdogan's behaviour has been likened to Stalin's behaviour during the battle of Warsaw in 1944 where Soviet tanks stood by and watched Nazi troops massacre the free Polish forces in order to allow Soviet Union to occupy Poland.

As such the coalition cannot even entertain the idea of allowing Turkish troops to enter Syria until Turkey gives the coalition permission to fly aircraft from United States Air Force (USAF) Incirlik which is around 800km (500 miles) for Kobane in order to mount "Operation Northern Watch" style armed patrols over Iraq. The prospect of Kobane falling dramatically increases the urgency that the coalition begins this type of operation immediately. If Kobane falls then ISIL are likely to re-deploy their forces to strengthen their positions in Iraq around Ramadi and Fallujah in order to renew their efforts to seize Iraq's capital Baghdad which is just 50km (30 miles) from Fallujah.

Perhaps underlining the necessity that the coalition gets a plan for Iraq up and running Belgium flew their first combat operation on Monday (6/10/14) while today the Dutch carried out their first air-strikes against ISIL targets in northern Iraq.

16:25 on 7/10/14 (UK date).

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