Overnight the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have continued their efforts to seize the strategically important city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab which sits just 1km (0.6miles) from Syria's border with Turkey.
Fortunately the town's Kurdish defenders seem to have been able to hold off yesterday's attempt by ISIL fighters to enter from the south-west. Unfortunately the advantage that ISIL have in night-fighting has allowed them to expand their control over the east of the city leaving them in control of around 40% of the city and poised to take over the cities so-called "security sector" which is home to the Kurdish fighters HQ.
The US-led coalition has continued to make some late efforts to help defend Kobane having carried out 9 air-strikes throughout Thursday (9/10/14). These destroyed 2 ISIL training facilities/troop barracks along with 4 ISIL vehicles including 1 tank and 2 small ISIL ground units. What is most interesting about these strikes though is that they were all carried out by a single B-1 Lancer bomber that was only operating at around 10% of it's capacity.
Primarily a nuclear bomber the B-1 is designed to fly a vast distance before dropping a huge number of bombs on a target before returning to base. However at Kobane it appears to be being used to circle over the area for several hours while picking off targets one by one. This obviously has the advantage that multiple bombs are being dropped and multiple targets are being destroyed. Plus being a very large and slow moving aircraft it is very easy to spot a B-1 from the ground which provides both a morale boost to Kurdish fighters on the ground and the assembled media with pictures proving that US President Obama is doing something.
The problem is that B-1 bombers operate from either Texas, South Dakota or California which are all well within the US. As a result even at supersonic speeds it takes at least 30 hours for a B-1 to fly to Kobane, drop its bombs, return to base, re-arm and return to Kobane. Obviously I don't want to be in the position where I'm giving ISIL tactical advice but I don't think it will be long before they realise that all they need to do is hide for the 2-3 hours that a B-1 is over Kobane and then do all their fighting in the over 27-28 hours between bomb runs.
As a result if the coalition seriously wants to defend Kobane then it needs to continue the B-1 operation but it also needs to fly Predator-type drones over Kobane 24 hours a day. These can be used to pass on the real-time co-ordinates of any ISIL ground units moving on the ground to 2 to 4 F/A-18-type aircraft who are on permanent stand-by. Those strike aircraft can then go into destroy those targets any time ISIL try and move anywhere close to Kobane.
The coalition clearly has the resources to mount this type of defence of Kobane because they certainly have the resources to continue their random bombing of targets across Syria and Iraq. On Thursday alone they destroyed a small ground unit near Al Hasakah which is around 200km (120 miles) north-east of the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa and 70km (42 miles) west of the border with Iraq. Also a strike in Dayr Az Zawr which is around 140km (84 miles) south-east of Raqqa destroyed an ISIL armoured vehicle staging area which is a high value target but one that would have been better dealt with by the B-1 that had been deployed to Kobane. In Iraq strikes close to the capital Baghdad destroyed 2 ISIL buildings and an ISIL ground unit.
Overnight the US Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel finally admitted to reporters that the coalition does need the use of United States Air Force (USAF) base Incirlik in Turkey to conduct a successful operation against ISIL. The US deputy Secretary of State is currently in Turkey to discuss the operation against ISIL so the announcement that Incirlik is to be used should becoming in the next few hours.
If the US is having trouble persuading Turkey to co-operate the fact that the Turkish police have killed a further 10 anti-ISIL protesters overnight should provide a lot of leverage. Not least because Turkish police have taken to flashing the 4 fingered salute of the Muslim Brotherhood that is commonly used by Islamist terrorists in Egypt.
The reason why protesters in Turkey are so angry is that according to Staffan de Mistura - the United Nations (UN) Special Envoy to Syria - there are at lest 700 elderly and disabled people trapped in Kobane itself and a further 10-13,000 trapped between Kobane and the Turkish border. All of them will likely be massacred if ISIL succeed in seizing Kobane. Turkey is continuing to seal its border in order to prevent them from fleeing to safety.
16:50 on 10/10/14 (UK date).
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