Although I've not really had time to cover it the US-led coalition has been continuing with its policy of conducting air-strikes against oil storage and refinery facilities controlled by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) within Syria. For example on Friday (17/10/14) the coalition struck a facility in Shadadi - around 20km (12 miles) south-west of Al-Hasakah, 140km (84 miles) north-east of Dayr az Zawr - which contained a pump station and petroleum, oil and lubricant (POL) tanks. As with Khorasan Shadadi is also the name of a province in Iran.
As I've explained on multiple occasions these strikes against ISIL controlled oil facilities seem to have very little military value. Any effect they have on disrupting ISIL funding through the black market sale of oil is unlikely to be felt on the battlefield for months if not years and they certainly have no impact on foreign donations which is ISIL's main source of income. In the immediate term though these strikes are going to make life much more difficult for civilians trapped within ISIL controlled territory. This could well lead to those civilians starting to think that the coalition is attacking them rather than ISIL causing them to side with ISIL making it much harder for those areas to be liberated when the time comes.
Making matters even worse on Saturday (18/10/14) coalition air-strikes hit a fuel distribution depot in Khasham which is just 9km (5.4 miles) on the outskirts of Dayr az Zawr which is around 115km (70 miles) south-east of the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa along the Euphrates River. Although there are no details of any ISIL fighters being killed it is being reported that 8 civilians - who were likely being forced to work at gun point - were killed in the attack. I don't think I need to explain how this will be used to claim that the US is simply trying to kill Muslims rather then defeat ISIL.
What the coalition should be doing instead is concentrating its firepower into areas where ISIL are still trying to advance. This includes the area around Iraq's capital Baghdad and also the city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab which sits just 1km (0.6miles) from Syria's border with Turkey and some 140km (84 miles) to the north-west of Raqqa.
As I mentioned on Friday Kobane's Kurdish defenders had withstood a substantial attempt by ISIL to seize the city following a month long siege. By Friday night the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) had succeeded in reclaiming control of Kobane's south-western entrance and had contained ISIL fighters in three small pockets of the city around the north-eastern border crossing, the eastern "governance district" and the south-eastern entrance to the city.
As a result over Friday night there was sporadic fighting in all three of these areas and the north-eastern border crossing in particular. However unlike previous incidents of fighting in that area this seemed to be ISIL fighters trying to escape from Kobane rather then trying to cut it off from the outside world. The major concern is that because they still have at least partial control over the south-eastern entrance to Kobane ISIL have been able to bring in heavier weapons such as mortars. Armed with little more then assault rifles the YPG have little response to this type of weapon and are therefore very reliant on coalition air-strikes over which they seem to have little influence.
With the noose around Kobane being partially loosened by the YPG's recent gains they have been able to bring in a medium sized company (roughly 200) of fresh fighters from the surrounding villages. These have included stragglers from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) who are dotted around northern Syria. This is particularly interesting because it shows that the people that US President Barack Obama wants to lead the fight against ISIL - the FSA - have themselves been forced to admit that it is the Kurds who are the only ones capable of leading the fight and they are already doing so.
Despite the fact that the YPG have been able to bring in limited reinforcements ISIL have been able to bring in far more resources. Throughout Saturday ISIL called up fighters from across five separate areas to converge on Kobane. On Saturday night those ISIL fighters launched a concerted effort to enter Kobane via the south-western entrance and cut the city off from YPG units that are holding the western hill of Tall Shair. Although this attack was conducted using ISIL's standard tactic of driving suicide truck bombs at enemy positions before following up with infantry behind armoured vehicles the YPG were able to repel this attack although there is talk of substantial casualties. I am still waiting for details of what - if any - air-strikes the coalition carried out in order to help repel this latest assault.
This latest round of fighting does really serve to further underline why the re-supply of Kobane has become a critical priority. Although the YPG have been able to bring fresh fighters into the city those fighter will all need food, water, ammunition and medical supplies. If Turkey continues to refuse to allow those supplies to be brought in by road across its border then the coalition needs to conduct air-drops to deliver those supplies. After all it is clear that ISIL are desperate to re-capture the area to the west of Kobane where any such air-drop could occur and if those air-drops don't occur I doubt anyone will ever believe that the coalition is doing all it can to defend Kobane.
Due to the US' seeming inability to put pressure on Turkey to either open its border or allow the coalition to use United States Air Force (USAF) base Incirlik in the fight against ISIL it seems unlikely that Turkey will open its border to re-supply Kobane. In fact according to Turkey's Aydinlik Daily news agency Turkey has actually moved further towards establishing formal diplomatic ties with ISIL by allowing them to open an Consulate in the Cankaya district of Turkey's capital Ankara. This Consulate (basically a small Embassy) has apparently been issuing visas for those wishing to fight alongside ISIL and means that in effect Turkey has recognised ISIL occupied areas as a formal state.
A further indication of close co-operation between ISIL and Turkey came with the news that ISIL is training pilots to fly 3 Su-24 multi-role fighter aircraft that it captured from the Syrian air force. Although these are amongst the targets that should have been destroyed in the first wave of air-strikes in Syria I don't consider them a substantial threat because they can be quickly dealt with if they do start causing problems. However when you start to talk about resolving the threat of ISIL aircraft you start getting close to a discussion about imposing a no-fly zone which has been a key demand of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Therefore the relationship between the two seems to be that Erdogan demands so ISIL provide and vice versa.
As a result I think it is now time for the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to meet to discuss Turkey's violation of resolution 2170 (2014). After all it's pretty obvious that Erdogan is desperate to show Turkish nationalists that he can wrap the US and the international community around his little finger so they'll help him stay out of prison on corruption charges.
12:50 on 19/10/14 (UK date).
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