On Wednesday (25/8/16) Turkey launched an invasion of Syria focused on the border town of Jarablus using a mixture of both regular and irregular troops.
Displaying their usual levels of journalistic integrity when it comes to Syria much of the western media reported that this operation was being conducted against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Turkey however has been quite clear that this invasion codenamed "Euphrates Shield" is to shield ISIL positions west of the Euphrates River.
It should come as little surprise then that ISIL not only welcomed Turkey's intervention on its behalf but openly celebrated it.
On Friday (27/8/16) ISIL released a video that had been shot in the group's de facto Syria capital Raqqa. It begins with the beheading of five men that it claims are members of the Sahawat group of Sunni tribes in Iraq's Anbar province who have been fighting ISIL.
The video then goes on to show five Kurdish prisoners being lined up in front of five of ISIL's child soldiers - known as the "Cubs of the Caliphate." After telling all Kurds to prepare their coffins and dig their graves each child then shoots a prisoner in the head killing them.
The nine minute video then ends with am adult ISIL fighter promising to kill all Shia's in the Qardaha, Tartus and Latakia parts of Syria. To emphasise this point he and three other adults then shoot and kill four Shias.
The children used as executioners are identified as coming from Uzbekistan, Egypt, Tunisia, a Kurdish area and Britain. The video is entitled "The Nations Are Uniting Against You" and seems intended to send that message that through Turkey the World has united behind ISIL against the region's Kurds, Shias, Christians, Yezidis and even Sunnis.
Early in the day on Friday morning ISIL launched twin suicide attacks against a refugee camp in the Kurdish region of Makhmour in Iraq. Fortunately it was foiled with only the attackers being killed. This came just five days after Kurdish security forces stopped a child on Sunday (21/8/16) before he was able carry out an ISIL suicide attack in Kirkuk, Iraq.
Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed to display almost psychic powers when he preempted this attack by falsely claiming that an ISIL child suicide bomber had been responsible for the attack on Erdogan's rival People's Democratic Party (HDP) in the Turkish city of Gaziantep the previous day.
With ISIL not only welcoming but celebrating Turkey's intervention to support them in their cause it almost goes without saying that they offered no resistance. Turkish forces were able to secure Jarablus in a matter of 12 hours whilst sustaining no casualties. Also missing from Jarablus was the civilian population that had fled in the face of Turkish forces.
Having seized Jarablus Turkish forces then increased their invasion force and began advancing towards the city of Manbij which sits around 35km (20 miles) south of Jarablus. Considered a key node in ISIL's supply lines between Raqqa and Turkey Manbij was finally liberated from the group on August 13th (13/8/16).
Although I don't think anyone is under any illusion of what Erdogan's true objective is Turkey claims that the purpose of this latest advance is to rid the area of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
The problem with this is that the PKK is a Turkish political party. Rather like other Turkish political parties such as the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) it has a paramilitary wing - the People's Defence Forces (HPG). The Turkish media is forbidden from referring to the HPG in an attempt to convince people that the PKK is the paramilitary group and the HDP which oppose Erdogan is its political wing.
The force that is operating against ISIL in northern Syria is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This coalition operating in a Kurdish majority area does contain a Kurdish element known as the People's Protection Forces (YPG) which is supported by all of Syria's Kurdish parties including the Democratic Union Party (PYD). However the SDF is a broad coalition of forces including;
The Quinta Brigada: Taking their name from the 15th Brigade of the Republican Army in the Spanish Civil War this is a brigade of international fighters who have volunteered to go and do what their own governments lack the courage to do.
During the recent Olympics British fighters in the brigade declared that they were splitting - Monty Python style - forming their own Bob Crow Brigade and going on strike. Now deceased Bob Crow was the RMT union leader who threatened to bring the 2012 London Olympic to a halt through strike action. So it should be pretty obvious what the British military thinks of them.
The Syriac Brigade: This is a brigade of fighters made up of the Assyrian or Syriacs who like the Kurds are indigenous to this part of northern Syria.
The Manbij Brigade: This is a brigade of Shia ethnic Turks from in and around the Syrian city of Manbij.
The Al-Sanadid Brigade: This is a brigade made up of members of the Arab Shammar tribe that is native to northern Syria.
The Al-Shaitat Brigade: This is a brigade made up of members of the Arab al-Shaitat tribe which is native to northern Syria.
Commandement des Opérations Spéciales: This is a brigade of French Special Forces troops that operated as part of the SDF in the liberation of Manbij.
SOCOM: This is a brigade of American Special Forces troops that operated as part of the SDF in liberation of Manbij.
The SDF also includes a number of Arab brigades that used to be part of the now defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA);
The Euphrates Volcano Brigade: These were the first former FSA group to work alongside the YPG helping to found the SDF.
The Raqqa Revolutionaries Brigade: As the name suggests this a brigade of Arab fighters originally from Raqqa who are obviously very keen to see it liberated from ISIL.
The Northern Sun Brigade: This is a brigade of Arab fighters from Syria's Aleppo province in which Manbij and Jarablus sit.
The Al-Qassas Brigade: This is a brigade of Arab fighters originally from Deir er-Zour to the south-east of Raqqa.
The Jarablus Brigade: This brigade of Arab fighters is originally from Jarablus.
It is worth noting though that none of these brigades comprise of what traditionally considered to be brigade strength.
In its efforts to drive these Arabs, Kurds, Assyrians and Shia Turkmen from their homes Turkey is primarily using its formal army backed by its airforce.
However it is also using a small group of around 300 irregular forces which it refers to as the "Free Syrian Army" but is referred to by everybody else as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).
Unlike the SDF's Manbij Brigade however members of the STB are not Syrians of Turkish ethnic origin. Instead they're simply just Turkish.
Probably their most high profile member is Alparslan Celik of the (Ottoman) Sultan Mehmet the Conqueror division. Celik is from the Turkish city of Keban where his father was the Mayor representing the MHP. The STB is simply another name for the Grey Wolves - the paramilitary wing of the MHP.
The fact that Celik has still not been prosecuted for his role the war crime of machine gunning two Russian pilots after the ejected on November 24th 2015 (24/11/15) is just a further example of Turkey failing to meet its obligations under international law.
In a bizarre act of appeasement to Erdogan following the invasion the US called on the YPG brigades of the SDF to withdraw to the eastern banks of the Euphrates River. On Thursday (26/8/16) the YPG brigades of the SDF began to comply with the US' request. The US has today formally acknowledged that there is no YPG presence west of the Euphrates.
Despite this Turkey has continued its advance towards Manbij attacking Arab elements of the SDF as it goes. However unlike where is supposedly faced off against ISIL in Jarablus as it has attacked Arab SDF forces Turkey's invasion force has been met with resistance. Particularly around the village of Amarinah which sits 8km (5 miles) south of Jarablus on the route to Manbij.
Sadly Turkish forces have responded to this Arab resistance with astonishing levels of brutality. On Thursday (26/8/16) they launched a chemical weapons attack on Amarinah's civilian population using Sulphur Mustard gas. Sadly this is something that the Sultan Murad division who make up the bulk of STB forces in and around Jarablus are notorious for.
Although it was the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) who claimed responsibility two previous Sulphur Mustard gas attacks have been launched against civilians in the Shaikh Maqsood district of Aleppo City from Sultan Murad occupied positions in the past five months. The fact that both the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and the United Nations (UN) have been wilfully blind to these attacks only serves to further underline the extent to which Erdogan is reliant on US protection.
On Sunday (29/8/16) the Turkey a conducted an airstike against the village of Bir al-Kusa which is around 13km (8 miles) south of Jarablus. This appears to have been a complete massacre with independent sources putting the civilian death toll in excess of 35. Today video footage has emerged of members of the Sultan Murad division kidnapping, tying up and then beating local children.
If Erdogan's claim that he simply wants to expel the PKK from west of the Euphrates wasn't bizarre enough Turkey is most certainly not limiting its aggression to the west of the Euphrates.
On Saturday (27/8/16) Turkey briefly sent troops and armoured vehicles to invade the city of Kobane. That sits 25km (15 miles) east of the Euphrates. Today Turkey has conducted artillery and airstrikes against the city of Qamishli. That stands 300km (180 miles) east of the Euphrates. Also today Turkey has conducted airstrikes against Kurdish positions in Gara. That's so far east of the Euphrates its in Iraq.
Turkey saw its first casualties of this invasion on Saturday (27/8/16) when Arab SDF forces destroyed three Turkish tanks killing one soldier and injuring several others.
The rumour I have heard is that these losses were incurred through the use of "Kornet" anti-tank missiles. This Russian made weapon is widely used across the region including by Turkey itself. Ironically these particular missiles may have come from Turkey's looting of the Libyan arsenal back in 2011 in order to arm ISIL only for the SDF to capture those weapons.
This is obviously an extremely concerning area for Turkey. Although US President Obama is still refusing to grant the official designation the SDF is widely considered the ground force of Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) in Syria. As a result many particularly European nations have supplied them with advanced weaponry such as the similar MILAN anti-tank system while Obama was busy handing out TOW anti-tank systems to Al Qaeda.
So on Saturday (27/8/16) night Turkey staged a rocket attack against the Diyarbakir military airbase from which it is providing ISIL with air support. In a complete violation of the laws of war Turkey has decided to shield this airbase from attack by locating it next to a civilian airport.
The purpose of staging this attack was to put pressure on CJTFOIR to stop supplying the SDF with weapons with which to fight ISIL. The idea being to whip Turkish people further into an anti-American frenzy by giving them the entirely false impression that weapons supplied to the SDF are being given to the HPG to be used against Turkey.
If that is the path Erdogan wishes to go down the flip side of that argument is that under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2170 CJTFOIR would well within its rights to start directly supplying the HPG with weapons to destroy ISIL's airforce
Today the US has issued a statement calling the fighting between Turkey and the SDF unacceptable and declaring that it must cease.
Although this statement is long overdue - many think it should have been issued as far back as June 2015 - it is far from robust as it needs to be. For example it includes no timeframe and it seems to equate Turkey's wholly illegal invasion with the SDF's inherent right to self-defence. Therefore there is an extremely high risk that Erdogan will interpret this to mean that Turkey can maintain some form of military presence in Syria.
As I've been saying to the past year the key to the defeat of ISIL is the cutting of their supply line between Azaz in the west and the Euphrates River in the east.
Moving the Turkish border deeper into Syria within that area is the complete and exact opposite of what it required. Not to mention a gross violation of international law.
Perhaps if Obama didn't rely on Erdogan as his only source of information on events in Syria he may have worked that out for himself by now.
17:30 on 29/8/16 (UK date).
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment