At around 04:00 (GMT) yesterday (25/8/16) Turkey launched an invasion of northern Syria. Its objective was to capture the town of Jarablus that sits right on Turkey's border on the western banks of the Euphrates River.
The US currently has Special Forces troops embedded with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) in the city of Manbij which sits around 30km (20 miles) south of Jarablus. They estimate that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) had a force of around 1,400 fighters in Jarablus.
The Turkish invasion force was made up of 1,000 regular Turkish troops and 200 members of the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). This is an irregular and therefore illegal division of the Turkish military that has been operating inside Syria since 2012.
One of their largest divisions are named after Murad IV - Sultan of the Ottoman Empire between 1623 and 1640. Other division are named after other Ottoman Sultans such as Mehmet the Conqueror and Selim II.
In total the Turkish invasion force was made up of 1,200 men. Although better equipped this saw them significantly outnumbered by an ISIL force 15% larger. As a result you would have expected this to be the start of a long and brutal battle. Although slightly larger the battle for the similarly sized Manbij raged for 72 days.
However the Turkish invasion declared that they had secured full control over Jarablus just 12 hours later at 16:00 (GMT) after sustaining no casualties.
This raises the obvious question of what happened to all these ISIL fighters?
There are two possible explanations;
Firstly the ISIL fighters simply merged into the STB force. This has been a constant problem.
For example in July 2014 the 1000 Dawud Brigade of the now defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) defected to ISIL in Idlib province. In January 2015 some 3,000 members of 7 FSA divisions defected to ISIL.
Even fighters supposedly screened and vetted by the CIA have not been immune. In September 2015 the US had to shut down its Train & Equip program after the Division 30 fighters they'd trained merged with Al Qaeda just a few hours after crossing into Syria from Turkey.
It has also been a growing problem as ISIL have continued to lose ground both in Iraq and to the QSD in Syria. Barely a week goes by without the UK's Channel 4 News excitedly showing fleeing ISIL fighters being welcomed with open arms into the ranks of the STB. Of course due to their own peculiar bias they're constantly trying to convince viewers that is a good thing.
Such is the extent of the revolving door between ISIL and the supposedly "moderate" forces that make up the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition such as the STB that they can in no realistic way be considered an anti-ISIL force.
After all an ISIL fighter's ideology or the threat that they pose will not have changed simply because they have changed the name of their organisation.
To anyone with even half a clue this lack of distinction between ISIL and the Army of Conquest would have highlighted the need for Combined Joint Task Force: Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) to give its full and sole backing to the QSD. This would have allowed this coalition of Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian forces to filter the Islamist extremist elements out of Syria.
I guess though there must be a concern that once you remove the Sunni extremist elements there won't actually much opposition to the Syrian government left.
Secondly ISIL may simply have left handing control of Jarablus to the Turks in much the same way they repeatedly handed the towns of Marea and Cobanbey back and forth with the STB at the command of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The calculation being that STB control of an area would have absolutely no negative impact on ISIL's operation whatsoever. Erdogan would simply use the STB to keep the guns and oil flowing.
The Turkish invasion was of course timed to coincide with US Vice President Joe Biden's visit to Turkey. The thinking being that this would help suppress public condemnation of Turkey's declaration of war. That visit has now ended meaning that I can now speak slightly more freely and constructively.
The first thing about Biden's visit is that it should never have happened.
The moment that Erdogan ordered the Turkish military to open fire on US Special Forces troops in Manbij on Monday (22/8/16) it should have been immediately cancelled. And everybody in Turkey should have been left in no confusion as to exactly why it had been cancelled.
As if going ahead with the visit wasn't enough of a screw up true to form Biden then proceeded to screw up even worse.
Ever since he crushed the July 15th (15/7/16) rising against his dictatorship Erdogan has been whipping the Turkish people up into an anti-American frenzy publicly accusing the US of trying to oust him.
In what I assume was an ill conceived attempt to quell rather than worsen this aggression Biden publicly declared that the US had no prior knowledge of the rising.
For those who are paranoid and deluded enough to believe in Erdogan that will only serve to further consolidate the conspiracy their poor, damaged minds. After all if the US had been behind the rising you'd expect them to deny it.
What Biden should have done is simply tell the truth and confirm that the US had prior knowledge that an increasing section of Turkish society were becoming deeply alarmed at Erdogan's conduct and were planning on stopping him from damaging the nation further.
Biden should then have detailed all things the US over a three month period to help Erdogan crush the rising. After all we all saw the US network CNN give Erdogan airtime to call his supporters to the streets.
Biden should then have explained that the US had supported Erdogan because despite the concerns of his countrymen the US remained confident that Erdogan continued to be committed to the shared values of the US.
The implication being that if Erdogan moved away from those shared values he would also move away from the US' protection and details of the Turkish arms shipments - including the nerve agent Sarin - to ISIL and Al Qaeda would be passed to the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Despite Erdogan's attempts to use Biden as some sort of bodyguard the international reaction to Turkey's declaration of war was literally earth shattering.
Erdogan has been threatening to launch this invasion of Syria since mid-2015. What has stopped up until now is the deterrent provided by Russia.
Simply Erdogan understood that the moment Turkish troops set foot in Syria they'd be wiped out by Russian airstrikes. Russian military doctrine allows for the use of small tactical nuclear weapons as a normal part of combat. So about an hour after a Turkish military invasion of Syria there simply wouldn't be a Turkish military.
Back in June the European Union (EU) renewed its sanctions against Russia imposed because of the deterrent it provides to ISIL. This was done almost on the command of Germany against the pleading of many EU states led by Italy.
As a result Russia decided that it can't be bothered doing the hardwork to protect the EU so repaired its relationship with Turkey removing the deterrent enabling the long planned invasion to go ahead.
Roughly two hours before Turkish tanks rolled into Syria a 6.2 magnitude earthquake struck central Italy killing at least 159 people and almost completely destroying the town of Amatrice.
The shock and horror at this earthquake along with the scenes of devastation it created serve as convenient metaphor for the effect that this Turkish invasion will have on Jarablus and the wider efforts to defeat ISIL and their allies.
As I mentioned yesterday if this Turkish invasion goes unchecked it could well lead to the collapse of the Syrian government and the creation of a Somalia-style Islamist failed state on the shores of the Mediterranean.
As you may have picked up on through the suspension of Hope Solo from the US national team there is growing concern even within the US that in the last months of his Presidency the agonisingly vain Barack Obama may have decided to make his legacy the creation of this failed state.
If the Syrian government is overthrown the first effect is that the majority of the Syrian people who support the Syrian government will have to flee as refugees to Lebanon. Due to the sectarian nature of this supposedly "moderate" opposition the conflict will likely spread to Lebanon.
This will force the Syrian refugees already in Lebanon along with the new refugees from Syria and the population of Lebanon to flee to Europe as refugees. We're talking in terms of 30 million new refugees - roughly half the population of the UK.
We already know that Erdogan is using refugees as a weapon against the EU and the ISIL and their associates are using the refugee routes to smuggler fighters into Europe to launch attacks.
So it's unlikely to be long before we have to get used to scenes of devastation like those in Amatrice in Europe. Just not from earthquakes but from terror attacks as ISIL try to follow through on their promise to conquer Rome.
About 8 hours later there was another 6.8 magnitude earthquake. This time striking in Burma/Myanmar. That provided rather an interesting case study that hopefully should show Putin the error of his ways.
Burma is run by a particularly nasty dictatorship. It was they who changed the name to Myanmar. Despite this the Burmese military junta has suddenly become America's best friend in the World.
The reason why the US has suddenly decided to overlook this nation's appalling human rights record is that it wants to politically and economically isolate China. It is trying to do the same thing to Russia.
However you will have noticed that China is not really involved in the Syria conflict and certainly isn't providing the same level of deterrent to ISIL and their allies that Russia has done.
Therefore it should be obvious to Putin that regardless of what he does in Syria the US is going to press for the sanctions to remain.
What Russia needs to do is win friends within the EU so they will disregard the sanctions in much the same way everyone completely ignored the longterm US sanctions on Cuba. Due to the destruction he has caused in Jarablus with his little tantrum I for one am not feeling much warmth towards Putin at the moment.
The UK has also been particularly vocal. Yesterday a member of the elite Royal Marines regiment was arrested on suspicion of helping dissident Republican terrorists in Northern Ireland.
The area between Azaz and the Euphrates River that Erdogan uses to supply ISIL is sometimes referred to as; "Garvaghy Road."
The actual Garvaghy Road is in the town of Portadown in Northern Ireland. It was key to the Northern Irish peace process that religious extremists were prevented from marching down Garvaghy Road calling for a genocide of the local civilian population.
As part of the discussions over Syria's Garvaghy Road there has been something of an increase in dissident Republican activity in Northern Ireland.
A non-Syria related of this came on the infamous July 12th which is the traditional day for marches in Northern Ireland. This year it fell just five days after the July 7th (7/7/16) terror attack against police officers in Dallas, Texas, US. Initially considered controversial because the attacker was killed by a bomb disposal robot.
So on the so-called "Glorious 12th" (12/7/16) these "dissident Republicans" left a simple pipebomb outside the BBC offices in Belfast. This gave the BBC the opportunity to video and broadcast globally a bomb disposal robot at work. It's really not that different to shooting someone with a gun.
The arrest of a member of a regiment so elite that a cousin of mine whom I speak to only every three years or so couldn't gain security clearance to join is the UK signalling that this 'terrorist' activity is in fact the fully permitted work of the British Crown.
It is a way of declaring that that these 'terror attacks' in Turkey are in similarly the work of the Turkish head of state - Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
It's since emerged that Turkey started gathering it's invasion force on August 19th (19/8/16). As such the bombing in Gaziantep the following day (20/8/16) was a scripted part of the invasion plan allowing Erdogan to murder a large number of members of a political party that opposes him in the process.
Erdogan's commitment to democracy has continued today. A convoy carrying Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu - leader of designated official opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) was fired on by Turkish police in Savsat. The police who are famously extremely loyal to Erdogan have blamed the attack on the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
The fact the attack occurred at completely the opposite side of the country to Turkey's Kurdish region doesn't seem to have bothered them in the slightest.
At around 17:20 on 25/8/16 (UK date) I try and pick this up after dinner but funnily enough my Internet connection has started to go a little sketchy.
Edited at around 18:55 on 25/8/16 (UK date) to add above and below;
Unfortunately in order to cover these coded conversations the UK Ambassador to the UN has taken to rather comically imitating the extremist rantings of the US everytime they call a Security Council session for everyone to publicly pledge their support for ISIL.
The problem is that as often happens to those blinded by their own egos Obama is somewhat lacking in the observational skills department. In fact Obama seems to be so lacking in any discernible skills rather than the role of President he seems better suited to the role of tramp or some sort of bum.
Speaking of which a British company is testing this strange Hybrid Air Vehicle known as "Airlander 10." Although they abandoned the project before completion this design was originally developed by the US military as a observation/intelligence gathering aircraft. Due to it's passing resemblance to Kim Kardashian the Airlander 10 has been nicknamed "The Flying Bum."
Yesterday a few hours after the Turkish invasion had began the Flying Bum suffered a seemingly catastrophic lack of support that sent it into a nosedive causing it to smash into the ground. Something Skateboarders would refer to as; "A Facepalm."
Later yesterday afternoon 5 men of Sri Lankan origin drowned off a beach in Camber Sands, Sussex, UK. Initially some thought they'd been chucked off the side of a people smuggle boat to highlight the 30 million extra refugees Obama seems intent on sending Europe's way. As it turned out that wasn't the case. Although it had been that sort of day.
The refugee issue of course was officially raised today with the rescuing of 6 irregular migrants from the Varne sandbank off the Kent coast.
Today Germany has given its latest update on Erdogan's refusal to grant access to German troops stationed at USAF airbase Incirilk as Turkey is obligated to do under its NATO member. Due to this continued obstruction that pre-dates the July 15th rising Germany feels that it can no longer consider Incirilk to be a NATO base and is to withdraw its forces to an alternative location in the region.
This comes less then a week after the US was forced to relocate between 50 and 90 nuclear to Romania from Incirilk over fears that Erdogan may attempt to seize them in order to supply them to ISIL.
During his speech yesterday Biden called on the QSD to withdraw from Manbij, Tishrin and all positions west of the Euphrates. This call was apparently reiterated by US Secretary of State John Kerry.
Despite having achieved the aim of clearing Jarablus of ISIL in a recording breaking 12 hours Turkey has so far made no attempt to withdraw its invasion force. In fact it has strengthened its force with 10 more tanks today and as I write is firing on retreating QSD forces as it advances towards Manbij - a key part of the supply route to ISIL's de facto capital Raqqa.
Manbij is of course the city that was liberated from ISIL on August 13th (13/8/16). You may remember this from the inspiring videos broadcast across social and conventional media showing women burning their Burqas and cutting off their beards in celebration of their liberation.
Manbij is also the city that;
US citizen Levi Shirley, 25 of Colorado,
US citizen Jordan McTaggart, 21 of Colorado,
US citizen Will Savage, 27 of Maryland,
UK citizen Dean Evans, 22 of Reading
Along with many others died to liberate.
20:00 on 25/8/16 (UK date).
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