In my post yesterday I covered the liberation of the Iraqi city of Fallujah by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
I commented on how this marks the beginning of the end for ISIL in Iraq and how their senior leaders seem to have accepted this. They are now rumoured to be preparing to flee not only Iraq but also Syria for Libya and beyond.
ISIL's main escape route is likely to be a roughly 100km (60 mile) area of Syria's border with Turkey which has become dubbed either "Erdogan's Pocket" or "Garvaghy Road." This really stretches from the town of Azaz to the west to the Euphrates River in the east and Aleppo City to the south. This has long functioned as ISIL's main supply route between Turkey and ISIL's de facto capital in Syria - Raqqa.
As such sealing this area should always have been a high priority for the US-led anti-ISIL coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). However now that it is likely to become an escape route for ISIL sealing it should be the number one priority for anti-ISIL forces.
Fortunately in recent months Erdogan's Pocket has been coming under growing pressure from two different groups of forces. Both to south and to the east.
From the east Erdogan's Pocket has come under pressure from an operation to liberate the city of Manbij. This sits almost directly on the western bank on the Euphrates River around 25km (16miles) north-west of Tishrin Dam and 35km (22 miles) south of the border town of Jarabulus.
The operation to liberate Manbij is being conducted by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). Formed in October 2015 this is a coalition of the Kurdish People' Protection Units (YPG) along with local Arab tribal forces and Arab and Assyrian militias.
The operation to liberate Manbij has been painfully slow. It was launched on May 31st (31/5/16) in two directions from Tishrin which was liberated by the QSD in December 2015 and from Sarrin which sits on the eastern bank of the Euphrates almost directly opposite Manbij.
The first objective was to lay siege to Manbij by cutting the main roads north to Jarabulus, west to Aleppo City and south to Raqqa liberating the surrounding villages and countryside in the process. It was only on June 21st (21/6/16) that the QSD were able to enter Manbij itself.
During that time ISIL forces inside of Manbij have been repeatedly able to break the siege of. Most notably on June 13th (13/6/16) and June 15th (15/6/16). ISIL have also been able to launch attacks from Jarabulus in an effort to break the siege. Particularly on June 28th (28/6/16) and July 1st (1/7/16).
Some nine weeks into the operation the QSD have so far only succeeded in liberating around 70% of a city which is only home to around 100,000 and only roughly 8km^2 (5miles^2) in size.
At this rate it will be around February 2019 before Erdogan's Pocket is sealed and ISIL are denied their supply/escape route.
The sole reason for this agonising lack of progress is simply the US' refusal to commit itself to the objective of shutting down Erdogan's Pocket.
In warfare what you aim to do is to deploy the largest force you can muster to quickly and completely overwhelm your opponent. Ideally what you want to do is intimidate them to the extent that they simply surrender before you even have to fire a shot.
In the Manbij operation the US is flatly refusing to allow the QSD to do this. Instead it is imposing ridiculous conditions on the operation seemingly in order to drag it out for as long as possible if not cause it to fail completely.
For example at the demand of Turkey the US is refusing to allow the YPG part of the QSD coalition to play a leading role in the operation. The problem with this is that the YPG make up around 85% of the QSD strength of around 70,000. They are also the most longstanding, best trained and most experienced force within the QSD.
Turkey has also demanded that a Turkmen Brigade are assigned to the operation. Meanwhile in Aleppo City other Turkmen Brigades are actively trying to wipe out the YPG.
Likewise the US appear to be strictly rationing the ammunition being supplied to the QSD. The rumour has it that the US is only supplying the QSD with ammunition on an operation-by-operation, day-to-day basis.
That means that if the QSD liberate a village from ISIL as they did Ezam on June 6th (6/6/16) they then need to stop, carefully calculate what their next objective will be, request the ammunition and wait for US approval.
This obviously completely destroys the momentum of the operation and leaves the QSD extremely vulnerable to ISIL counter-attack.
The US' refusal to give the QSD the tools needed to do the job seem to stem from US President Barack Obama's apparent deep love affair with longterm ISIL collaborator Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Rather than simply telling Erdogan that his pocket is to be sealed and his support for ISIL is going to end the US seem to be trying to slow the Manbij operation down into a series of creeps and peeps. Simply the QSD are allowed to creep forward a few kilometres before the US forces them to wait to see if Erdogan is going to raise any objections.
Obama's cowardice in the Manbij operation is costing people their lives unnecessarily. Include European and American citizens who have gone to fight alongside the QSD.
In June Portuguese fighter Mario Nunes was killed in battle. On July 14th (14/6/16) the American Levi Shirley gave his life to defeat ISIL. On July 21st (21/7/16) Dean Evans from the UK was killed while on July 27th (27/7/16) Slovenian Martin Gruden made the ultimate sacrifice. These are just some of the 214 QSD fighters killed in the agonisingly slow operation.
To the south Erdogan's Pocket has come under pressure from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to the north of Aleppo City.
It is something of a misnomer that Aleppo City was ever fully captured from the Syrian government.
In 2012 a number of Islamist terror groups including Al Qaeda's affiliate the Al Nusra Front (ANF), the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) invaded the city. They went on to form the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.
At most the JAF have only ever been able to control around 50% of Aleppo City. However they have largely been confined to 20-30% of the north-east of the city with the SAA controlling around 50% and the YPG in control of the remaining 20%.
In order to sustain their occupation of Aleppo City the Army of Conquest coalition have relied on the "Erdogan's Pocket" supply line. Erdogan's Pocket runs south along two main roads from Azaz including the Highway 214. These roads enter Aleppo City via a ring-road called "Castello Road."
On June 25th (25/6/16) the SAA launched a long expected operation to liberate the northern portion of the Castello Road and the surrounding area.
By July 7th (7/7/16) the SAA had secured what is termed "fire control" over the Castello Road. Essentially this meant they could block all traffic on the road by firing on it. On July 17th (17/7/16) the SAA had taken physical control of Castello Road.
By July 27th (27/7/16) declared that they were in full control of the both the road and the surrounding area meaning that Aleppo City had been completely sealed off from Erdogan's Pocket.
At around 16:50 on 3/8/16 (UK date) I am still not quite 100%. I will try and pick this up after dinner my most likely in a seperate post tomorrow.
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