Certainly since the summer of 2015 the defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has rested on anti-ISIL forces ability to control a roughly 100km (60 mile) strip of Syria's border with Turkey.
Stretching between the town of Azaz in the west and the Euphrates River in the east this is sometimes referred to as "Garvaghy Road" or "Erdogan's Pocket." It is used by Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan to supply ISIL with weapons. In return ISIL use the route to smuggle oil to Turkish refineries that are controlled by Erdogan's son-in-law Bilal.
In July of 2015 the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) expanded the roughly 12,000km^2 (7,200 miles^2) buffer-zone it controls by liberating the town of Sarrin from ISIL. This left the QSD in complete control of the area between the border with Iraq in the east and Sarrin on the eastern banks of the Euphrates.
Their logical next step would be to cross the Euphrates and liberate all ISIL positions to the west of the river.
In response to ISIL supply lines coming under threat in this way Erdogan drew up plans to use the Turkish military to invade northern Syria to stop the QSD's advance and keep ISIL's oil and weapons flowing.
Preparations for this formal Turkish invasion of Syria reached such advance stages that it was even given a codename - "Cerabulus" - and a prospective "D-Day" - December 16th (16/12/15). It was preceded by a smaller partial Turkish invasion of the Bashiqa region of northern Iraq close to Mosul - ISIL's de facto capital in the country.
Under intense international pressure Erdogan was forced to abandon the Cerabulus operation and the Turkish invasion force was withdraw from Iraq on December 19th (19/12/15).
With the threat of Turkish invasion lifted the QSD were able to cross the Euphrates River liberating the Tishrin Dam and surrounding town from ISIL on December 30th (30/12/15). However the US refused to support the QSD in advancing any further in liberating Erdogan's Pocket from ISIL.
In April 2016 the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) who are centred around the city of Afrin in north-west Syria began to advance of ISIL positions in and around Azaz. They succeeded in liberating the town of Tall Rifat which sits around 16km (9.5 miles) south of Azaz. Thus they has breached the western border of Erdogan's Pocket.
Erdogan responded to this by using the Turkish military to shell the YPG stopping their advance in their tracks allowing ISIL to remain in control of the area.
On May 31st (31/5/16) the QSD finally got permission to launch an operation to liberate the town of Manbij from ISIL. Manbij sits around 30km (17 miles) north-west of Tishrin on the western banks of the Euphrates. Despite granting permission US support for this operation was slight to non-existent.
Due to a curious but longstanding agreement between US President Obama and Erdogan aircraft belonging to the US-led anti-ISIL coalition - Combined Joint Taskforce: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - aren't really permitted to carry out airstrikes in this area surrounding ISIL's de facto Syrian capital Raqqa.
The US did allow the QSD to be supplied with ammunition to conduct the operation. However that ammunition would only be delivered by the US and would only be delivered on an almost day-to-day basis.
As a result the operation to liberate Manbij - a city just 8km^2 (5 miles^2) - has been painfully slow. It was only completed on August 13th (13/8/16) - 75 days and two months after it had begun.
The logical next step in cutting ISIL's supply-lines would be for them to advance roughly 30km (20 miles) north to the town of Jarablus. The problem is that Jarablus sits directly on Turkey's border with Syria.
As a result there has been a high degree of concern that if an operation to liberate Jarablus were to begin Erdogan would respond by using the Turkish military to fight alongside ISIL just as they did in Tall Rifat back in April.
While the US continued to dither in making Erdogan's mind up for him Erdogan moved to make Obama's mind up for him.
Today Erdogan has used the Turkish military to formally invade the Syrian town of Jarablus.
Erdogan is making absolutely no attempt to disguise the fact that this operation is to reinforce ISIL's presence in Jarablus against QSD attempts to liberate Jarablus. The operation is even codenamed "Euphrates Shield."
The launching of the operation has been timed to coincide with US Vice President Joe Biden's visit to Turkey. The thinking being that the US will be too afraid to condemn Erdogan's actions whilst sharing a press conference podium with Erdogan.
Sadly this act of Turkish aggression against US interests in the region has been far too easy to predict.
On Saturday (20/8/16) Erdogan supporters - a group that very much includes ISIL - carried out a bomb attack against a wedding of members of the People's Democratic Party (HDP) in the Turkish city of Gaziantep. This killed 54 people including 40 children.
The HDP are the only Turkish political party not to support Erdogan's purge of every aspect of Turkish civil society following the failed rising against him on July 15th (15/7/16). Therefore in conducting this attack Erdogan was simply able to murder a large number of his political opponents.
However through his silencing of the media and the persecution of his political opponents Erdogan has been rather successful in brainwashing the Turkish population into the sort of delusionally psychotic state in which Erdogan himself operates.
In this mindset groups as violently and clearly opposed to each other such as ISIL, the QSD and the Syrian government are in fact all secret allies conspiring against Erdogan.
Therefore few in Turkey would make a distinction between an ISIL attack and any number of largely fictional groups that Erdogan has warned are lurking behind every corner.
Erdogan though couldn't resist throwing his core support base a little bone by claiming on Sunday (21/8/16) that the Gaziantep attack had been carried out by a child bomber. It hadn't.
This claim was intended to show that Erdogan had prior knowledge of an ISIL attack that was to be carried out by a child suicide bomber in the Iraqi city of Kirkuk later that day. Fortunately that attack failed.
The purpose being to gloat to Erdogan's Islamist base that they would be soon joining their Muslim Brothers ISIL in open war.
On Monday (22/8/16) Erdogan used the Turkish military to shell positions in Jarablus. This was intended to serve as a warning to the QSD and the US that Jarablus was most certainly in the range of Turkish guns and Erdogan would not hesitate to use them to keep the town under ISIL control.
However the shelling of Jarablus was primarily used as a cover for the shelling of Manbij.
This is ironic because Erdogan refused to participate in the liberation of Manbij claiming that it was out of range of Turkish guns. When the US offered to position longer range Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) in Turkey for the operation Erdogan refused them permission.
Erdogan's shelling of Manbij should have been taken as a clear and direct threat to the US because it was American Special Forces troops that were coming under fire.
On Friday (19/8/16) the US scrambled aircraft when US Special Forces came close to being fired upon in the city of Hasakah on the southern boundary of the QSD buffer-zone. This was an absolutely appalling decision by the US that displayed a complete lack of understanding of the situation on the ground in Syria.
It also sent the fatal message to Erdogan that the US seemed to be looking for an excuse to abandon the anti-ISIL operation completely in order to act as ISIL's airforce against the Syrian government.
Once the US had made that mistake though it became utterly essential that they issued the same warning to Erdogan once he opened fire on US troops in Manbij.
Having failed to take appropriate and timely remedial action against Erdogan Obama has now played himself corner. The closure of Erdogan's Pocket and the cutting of ISIL's supply-lines is simply non-negotiable.
The worse case scenario from the current situation is that ISIL and their associates grow stronger and the Syrian government falls creating a nihilistic radical Islamist failed state on the shores of the Mediterranean. If Obama even suggests that those surrounding him seem to have no option other then to shoot him dead on the spot.
The best case scenario is that this conflict which is now well into it's fifth year simply continues for all eternity. That means the immense human suffering the UN Security Council claims to be so concerned about continues eternally. The flood of irregular migrants into Europe continues eternally as does the severe terror threat to Europe and beyond.
As such I am struggling to see what option CJTFOIR has other than to range its forces to expel the Turkish invasion force from Syria and seal Erdogan's Pocket. With Turkey nominally being a NATO member that is not a situation someone would wish on their worst enemy.
I can only assume then that Obama has finally accepted that Hillary Clinton won't be replacing him.
So he's decided to drop a massive turd on the Presidential desk for when Donald Trump takes over like some sort of petulant child.
16:05 on 24/8/16 (UK date).
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