When the Night Has Come. And the Land is Dark.

Just hold a press conference to pat yourself on the back.

On March 7th (7/3/16) the European Union (EU) met with Turkey to discuss the migrant crisis that Turkey has inflicted on the EU. As I explained this time last week the proposed agreement reached was ridiculous.

So in ridiculous in fact that the only rational explanation was that it had been designed specifically to force Hungary to veto it. In issuing that veto Hungary would be forced to admit that its demand that the EU seals its borders before putting in place a plan to distribute Syrian refugees is unworkable. This would increase pressure on Hungary to drop its legal challenge that is preventing that distribution plan going into effect.

The problem was that even before I wrote my post last week France and Germany didn't so much blink first as fully fainted in fear. As a result rather than forcing the Hungarian veto they instead replaced the March 7th agreement with one so watered down it is utterly meaningless.

Today's meeting where this new proposal appears to have been accepted has only just ended. As a result an official version of the agreement has not yet been released and I've not had time to properly digest the pirate version.

However the current situation is that if an irregular migrant lands in the EU from Turkey - typically on the Greek islands - they have to apply for political asylum. This is the process by which it is decided whether they are a refugee or not. If they are found not to be a refugee they can be deported back to their country of origin which in this case is Turkey. This process can take several years with numerous appeals until a decision becomes final.

Under the new agreement if an irregular migrant lands in the EU from Turkey they have to apply for political asylum. If they are found not to be a refugee they can be deported back to their country of origin which in this case is Turkey. This process can take several years with numerous appeals until a decision becomes final.

So under this new agreement the situation is exactly the same as it was before the agreement.

Rather than simply deporting failed asylum seekers - at this point "illegal immigrant" is the correct term - back to Turkey the EU has now agreed to accept a Syrian refugee for every illegal immigrant deported. However this is almost a moot point because we're unlikely to be actually deporting anyone until around 2019 and even then that will only be if Turkey stops the flow of irregular migrants into the EU.

Fortunately the EU has also decided to water down the ransom that will be paid to Turkey. The promised E3bn stays but the plans to increase that to E6bn appears to have been scrapped. The plans to grant Turkish citizens visa free access to the EU are still on the table but only if the conditions are met. That offer has been on the table for a very long time but Turkey has not yet been able to meet the conditions yet. It is unlikely that it will be able to meet them any time soon.

Likewise the plan to open new chapters on Turkish EU membership is still on the table. However the Turkish military continues to occupy northern Cyprus. As an EU member Cyprus has the power to veto the opening of all chapters except the one on budgetary standards. I suspect that's going to continue.

So in terms of the irregular migrant crisis I am really struggling to see what this new agreement changes in any way, shape or form.

On the bigger issue of how to end the conflict in Syria which is producing all the refugees sadly this agreement can only be counter-productive. I really think we are now at the point where Turkey needs to be formally designated not only as a state sponsor of terror but also as a state sponsor of genocide. Such a designation would lead to Turkey being cut off completely from the international community.

However through this agreement the EU has decided to pull Turkey close to it by locking the two in years of negotiation and diplomatic contact. That is only likely to embolden Turkey to escalate the crisis making the situation far worse.

16:20 on 18/7/16 (UK date).