Operation Featherweight: Month 20, Week 3, Day 5.

On Friday February 26th (26/2/16) a 14 day ceasefire began in Syria. This obviously expired last Friday March 11th (11/3/16). However it seems to be continuing to rollover on a day-by-day basis.

Away from the formal ceasefire Russia and the Syrian government's unilateral decision to also stop fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Al Qaeda affiliated Al Nusra Front (ANF) and all associated groups also appears to be continuing.

With no plan of their own this situation seems to have left the US roaming the earth looking for someone to tell them what to do next.

The first part of this tour saw US Vice President Joe Biden travel to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) last Monday (7/3/16). Despite it being an Islamic Monarchy and Dubai's trashiness of the nations such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain that make up the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) the UAE is certainly the most moderate and sensible.

The main topic of conversation seemed to be this renewed threat to attack Russia if Russia continues to fight ISIL, ANF and associated groups.

This threat first emerged in the summer of 2013 and culminated in a series of suicide bombings in the Russian city of Volgograd in the weeks running up to the 2014 Winter Olympics that were held in the near-by city of Sochi. The overthrow of the Ukrainian government and the sanctions of Russia that followed were an American apology for helping to stop terror attacks on the Olympics itself.

With the 2016 Summer Olympics taking place in Rio de Janerio, Brazil in the coming months Turkey in particular seems to be lobbying hard for a repeat of what happened during the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. That is the Georgian government once again launching an attack on its ethnically Russian minority civilian population forcing Russia to intervene to protect them. As with Ukraine that would provide an excuse for sanctions to be placed on Russia. At Turkey's urging the frozen conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan also seems to be heating up again.

In order to promote discussion about this topic the US-led Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) on March 4th (4/3/16) carried out a targeted air-strike against a senior ISIL commander by the name of Tarkhan Tayumurazovich Batirashvili (AKA: "Abu Omar al-Shishani" "Omar the Chechen"). Although a member of the Chechen ethnic group Batirashvili is a Georgian national and a former member of the Georgian Special Forces who is both a veteran of the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq and the 2008 attack on Georgia's ethnically Russian minority.

In terms of senior ISIL commanders that CJTFOIR could locate to target with an air-strike who represent the growing tensions between Turkey and Russia one of Batirashvili's aliases "Al-Shishani" is close enough to the name of the Syrian town of "Al-Shadadi." This was the last place that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) were able to liberate from ISIL before US pressure forced them to stop.

In the days before Biden's arrival two US nationals were killed in a car crash in the UAE. One of the deceased - Victoria McGrath - was reasonably famous as one of the more photogenic survivors of the April 15th 2013 (15/4/13) bomb attacks on the Boston Marathon. The crash was a result of a two-seater sports car carrying four people being driven by a drunk man at over 100mph in a 25mph zone. Presumably the Canadian driver - Cody Nixon - thought he and Ms Nixon would only be making headlines for getting arrested.

The Boston Marathon bombing was many, many things. However the fact that the two attackers - the Tsarnaev brothers - were Muslims from the Russian Caucus region of Chechnya was intended as the US throwing it's support behind the threat to attack Russia if it continued fighting ISIL, ANF and associated groups.

Turkey clearly took all this as permission to launch attacks against Russia. So on Friday (11/3/16) a car bomb exploded outside a Mosque in the Nazran area of the Russian Caucus region of Ingushetia which sits right on the border with Georgia. Ingushetia is a majority Muslim area. 

However the dominant form of Islam practised there is Sufi Islam. Predominately but not exclusively a form of Shia-Islam Sufism represents the polar opposite of the extreme Salafi, Sunni-Islam practised by groups such as ISIL and Al Qaeda. The bombing seems to have been a Salafi attempt to assassinate a Sufi Iman who is opposed to ISIL, Al Qaeda and associated groups.  

In the hours before the explosion a Turkish newspaper with extremely close ties to the ruling Justice & Development Party (AKP) published an editorial announcing that Russia would soon experience the wrath of Turkey and the wrath of Islam. Sunni extremists like those who support the AKP do not consider Shias or Sufis to be Muslims.

In response to the Nazran attack the US State Department changed its advice to US citizens travelling to Turkey warning of looming terrorist threat. The message quite simply being that having carried out the Nazran attack Turkey represents an imminent terrorist threat.

Unfortunately that seems to have been too subtle for Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the AKP. So on Sunday (14/3/16) they unleashed yet another terrorist bombing on the Turkish capital Ankara. So far that bombing has killed 32 and wounded more then 100.

The specific location of the bombing is what I suppose you would describe as a public transport hub. It is a railway station where numerous different lines intersect. It is also a point where various different bus and tram lines intersect. As such it is packed with people changing between buses, trams and trains.

The Russia city of Volgograd which was targeted back in December 2013 functioned as the main transport hub for the Sochi Olympics. Rather than flying directly into Sochi visitors to the Olympics would fly into Volgograd and then either drive or use public transport to get to Sochi. The specific targets hit there were a railway station and a trolley bus/tram stop outside of a railway station. 

While it is yet to be determined how truthful it is the Turkish authorities are claiming that the bomb was loaded into a black BMW car. Although amid all the Russian I'm not fully aware of the context the recurring image of the Nazran bombing was of a black BMW - or possibly Mercedes - car torn apart by the explosion.

As such the Ankara bombing was staged to make it look like Russia had teamed up with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) to carry out an attack in revenge for the Nazran bombing. Therefore the entire World and the all of Turkey's voters had better unite behind Erdogan and the AKP to defend the nation from the scourge of Russian and PKK aggression.

I actually thought the decision to immediately blame the PKK directly showed a distinct lack of creative flair. I honestly expected them to go for something more exotic such as the Revolutionary People's Liberation Front/Party (DHKP-C) or the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) as they did with the February 17th (17/2/16) Ankara bombing or the October 10th (10/10/15) Ankara bombing.

The second leg of Biden's trip took him to Israel on Tuesday (8/3/16). Here the main topic of conversation seemed to be the massive number of lone-wolf terror attacks that Israel has experienced over the past six months. This is of course the result of ISIL sitting just across Israel's border in Syria calling for people to carry out lone-wolf terror attacks against the "Zionist Crusaders."

To this end the US staged a lone-wolf terror attack on Tuesday evening along the Tel Aviv sea-front close to Jaffa port. What made this attack slightly unusual is that most attacks in Israel occur near Jerusalem where Israel meets Palestine. Tel Aviv however is slap bang in the middle of Israel and isn't really disputed. The attack also occurred close to where Biden was dining with his family and a US tourist - Taylor Force - was killed.

What appears to have happened is that a local CIA asset has let it be known where and when Biden would be dining. At the same time they've nudged the Vanderbilt University tour group that Force was travelling with in the same direction. If the two met they would get the headline. If they didn't it would still be a terror attack close to where the US Vice President was dining.

It must be said though that even with a US citizen being killed I did initially struggled to distinguish that attack from the two other attacks that took place in Israel that day.

The third leg of Biden's trip took him to Jordan on Friday (11/3/16). Although an Islamic Monarchy Jordan is one of the most sensible nations in the region. Sitting directly on the border with Syria they can see that the war going on there has nothing to do with overthrowing a dictator and building a prosperous democracy. These days it's not even a sectarian Sunni/Shia conflict anymore. It's simply a nation and a people being destroyed. 

We need to put a stop to all that before we can even entertain discussions about niceties such as elections and constitutional reforms.

Sadly with lots of talk about it being a slow process that will take lots of patience the US' message to Jordan seemed to be that they should quit complaining and just learn to enjoy the bloodshed.

On Wednesday (9/3/16) the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) received a special briefing on Iraq's Mosul Dam. 

As with January's briefing on global warming in East Africa this type of session is normally used to give UN staffers an opportunity to sit the Americans down and explain to them exactly what they're doing wrong. Unfortunately I can't really tell what was being discussed because I think a range of topics were being discussed. Rest assured though that the actual Mosul Dam was at the absolute bottom of that list.

The problem with the Mosul Dam is that it was really badly designed to begin with. The weight of the structure combined with the effect of the water causes the porous rock on which it is built to erode forming effectively sinkholes. Eventually the Iraqis are going to have to build a whole new dam. However this problem has been known about since the dam opened in 1984 and is easily managed by constantly pouring cement into the holes. The current problem is that ISIL have seized control of the near-by factory that produces this cement.

You may remember that this year's Oscars was dominated by a 2012 French TV show "Les Revenants." Set in a French town a major plotline is concerns that the dam at the centre of the town will collapse flooding it. They are particularly interested in these sinkholes and caverns that keep mysteriously appearing beneath the dam.

Another big theme at the Oscars was the English Actress Charlotte Rampling. Particularly her work exploring the rise of ISIL-style nihilist ideology in Liliana Cavani's so-called "Nazi Trilogy." Although not part of the trilogy Rampling also appeared in the 1977 Nazi themed movie "The Damned." I suspect that of the four movies that is probably the easiest to hold a UNSC briefing on.

On Thursday (10/3/16) US Secretary of State John Kerry picked up the baton from Vice President Biden to make the trip to Saudi Arabia. As always this saw the US immediately throw itself prostrate at the feet of Saudi King Salman al-Saud.

Just before Kerry departed the US let it be known that it intends to blame Saudi Arabia's arch enemy Iran harmlessly hacking into a US dam back in 2013. This was the US going; "We didn't understand the UNSC briefing. BUT WE'RE GOING TO BLAME IRAN ANYWAY!!!!"

Later in the day there was the downright surreal announcement that a US Court had ordered Iran to pay USD10bn in compensation for the September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) terror attacks. Those attacks were of course planned by a Saudi national and carried out by 15 Saudi nationals including one who was housed in the Saudi Embassy. There is absolutely no indication let alone evidence that Iran was in any way involved in the attacks. 

In fact in a previous compensation case against Saudi Arabia the same Judge - George Daniels - had ruled that nations have what is termed Sovereign Immunity in the matter and therefore could not be held liable for compensation.

Judge Daniel's reasoning appears to be that Iran supports the Lebanese political party/militia Hezbollah who the US classes as a terror group. Therefore with all terrorists being exactly the same Hezbollah and therefore Iran must've been responsible for 9/11. Even if Hezbollah are on the opposite side of the sectarian divide to Al Qaeda.

At the invitation of the Syrian government Hezbollah are currently fighting in Syria against Saudi-backed terror groups such as ISIL and ANF. As such in February 2016 Saudi Arabia joined the US and Israel in declaring Hezbollah as a terrorist group and last week forced the Arab League to follow suit. The US is obviously signalling it's support for this move regardless of the destabilising effect it is having on Lebanon.

On Sunday (13/3/16) John Kerry travelled to Paris, France to discuss the way forward on Syria and Iraq with various European leaders. To make sure that King Salman's orders continued to ring in his ears that day Saudi Arabia carried out in Cote d' Ivorie (Ivory Coast) that so far has killed 18.

The main objective here seems to be this hideous Paris draft agreement which ratified will prevent any action being taken to combat climate change either now or at any point in the future. With the ratification process beginning with a signing ceremony in April Saudi Arabia is desperately trying to scare up votes to make the so-called 12/12 Atrocity a reality.

Initially the Saudis were trying to achieve this by putting pressure of East/Central African nations such as Kenya and Ethiopia through Al-Shabaab based in Somalia. However of late the US has begun gently indicating that it might be prepared to support those nations against the terrorist onslaught. For example last Sunday (6/3/16) the US claims to have killed 150 Al-Shabaab fighters in an air-strike. On Tuesday (8/3/16) the US appears to have carried out a Special Forces raid against Al-Shabaab.

In response the Saudis seem to be shifting their attention to West/Central African nations. There is obviously Boko Haram who are active in Nigeria and its neighbours. However the Saudis also seem to be resurrecting Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) who were responsible for the 2012 Islamist takeover of northern Mali. 

Although significantly weakened just before the 2015 COP21 Summit AQIM launched an attack on a hotel in Mali's capital Bamako. In an effort to show that they can operate outside of Mali's borders on January 15th (15/1/16) launched a similar attack against a hotel in Ouagadougou, the capital of Mali's neighbour Burkina Faso. 

Sunday's attack on hotels in Cote d' Ivorie sees AQIM's reach extend even further. The hope seems to be to give the impression that they will be able to threaten the areas of west Africa beyond Boko Haram's reach.  

At around 17:40 on 14/3/16 (UK date) I've still got a little more to add. After dinner.    
  
Edited at around 19:25 on 14/3/16 (UK date) to add;

Beyond threatening Cote d' Ivorie and its West African neighbours Sunday's attack was also intended as a threat to the US and the European nations John Kerry was meeting with in Paris.

Of the European colonialists France maintains a much closer relationship with its former colonies than anybody else. It's a bit of quiz trivia worth remembering that in terms of timezones France is actually the largest nation on Earth because it includes all of it's former colonies. Therefore if a terror attack occurs in a nation like Cote d' Ivorie it forces the French security and intelligence services to engage in much the same way as if the attack had occurred in France.

The nature of the attack with gunmen walking along the beaches of numerous hotels shooting at everything that moved is exactly the same as the June 26th 2015 (26/6/15) attack on tourists on the beaches of Sousse in Tunisia. Claiming the lives of 30 British citizens this was the UK's single worst loss of life in a terrorist attack since the July 7th 2005 (7/7/05) bombings in London. 

However it was not only British citizens who were killed in that attack and holiday makers from across Europe - particularly Germany and Russia - used to flock to winter holidays in Tunisia and Egypt. One suspects the attacks in those countries were intended to drive European tourists to Turkish beaches instead. 

Due to its colonial past and its more recent history of civil wars many Ivorians have actually migrated to Europe - particularly France and the UK. Seriously I think you would be surprised how frequently I overhear Ivorian French when I'm going to the shops or generally running errands. Many of these dual nationals frequently return to Cote d' Ivorie to go on holiday or meet up with relatives. 

Therefore if an attack occurs in a country like Cote d' Ivorie many European governments will have to prepare themselves for the death of their citizens and the evacuation of their relatives. Although its yet to be confirmed I strongly suspect that the four French nationals killed in the attack form part of this group.

The hotel that does seem to have been worst hit by the attack - Etoile du Sud - had been scheduled to host a recruitment fair for American universities including the University of Florida. The keynote speaker at that event was US Assistant Secretary of Commerce Marcus Jadotte although the US delegation had not arrived at the time of the attack. 

That of course sent the message to the US that not only could its citizens be attacked but also its senior government officials could be targeted. However I think mainly it was intended as an enquiry as to what conclusions VP Biden had come to following his similar brush with terror in Israel.

Today the latest round of UN sponsored negotiations between Al Qaeda affiliated groups and the Syrian government have begun in Geneva, Switzerland. 

At best the objective of these talks is to freeze the conflict giving ISIL, ANF and associated groups limited but permenant safe-haven within Syrian. At worst its objective is to overthrow the Syrian government giving ISIL, ANF and associated groups free-run of the place and whatever nation Erdogan wants to declare himself Emperor of next.

Displaying stunningly poor judgement both the US and France used the start of these talks to once again criticise Russia for fighting ISIL, ANF and associated groups. So this evening Russia announced that it is to start withdrawing its forces from Syria tomorrow.

This is essentially Russia turning around to the US and the EU and going; 

"Well if you can't keep a civil tongue in your heads you're going to have to solve this mess on your own."    

I believe that's known in the trade as; "Throwing a big gay hissy fit."

20:00 on 14/3/16 (UK date).