Operation Featherweight: Month 20, Week 5, Day 1.

Ever since they rose to prominence in the summer of 2013 we've been assured that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were allied with the Syrian government against the so-called 'moderate opposition.'

When ISIL were defeated by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) at the Battle of Kobane in January 2015 we were assured that the YPG were allied both with ISIL and the Syrian government. Apparently that four month battle between the two was just a ruse to hide the alliance between ISIL and the YPG.

When Russia deployed air forces to Syria at the end of September 2015 we were assured that they too were part of the elaborate conspiracy of ISIL, the YPG and the Syrian government against the so-called 'moderate opposition.'

Nothing of course could be further from the truth. The clearest example of this was the Northwestern offensive that ran between April and June 2015.

Here the so-called 'moderate opposition' who are better known as the Al Qaeda led Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) launched a three pronged assault on Idlib City - the capital of Idlib province. Capturing the city in three days they went on to lay siege to the towns of Kafarya and al-Fu'a. That siege remains in place with the JAF blocking the delivery of humanitarian supplies. By mid-June JAF had captured the town of Jisr al-Shugur and the Ahria-Latakia Highway putting them in almost complete control of Idlib and Hama provinces.

The fourth prong of this offensive was conducted by ISIL. In May of 2015 they launched an assault from the town of Al-Sukhnah which sits around 130km (80 miles) south of ISIL's de facto capital in Syria Raqqa. By the end of May ISIL had advanced around 65km (40 miles) south-west seizing the historic city of Palmyra. They then proceeded to destroy many of the ancient artifacts in this UNESCO World Heritage site in yet another example of ethnic cleansing.

With Russian support the Syrian government launched a northwestern offensive of their own in October 2015. By the end of February 2016 this had succeeded in rolling back almost all the JAF gains of the previous year. The Syrian government regained control of the Ahria-Latakia Highway and liberated Jisr al-Shugur along with all of Latakia province and most of Idlib, Homs and Hama provinces leaving JAF contained around Aleppo City.

As a result on March 15th (15/3/16) Russia announced it was withdrawing the bulk of its forces from Syria.

Once you got past the initial surprise of the announcement it was obvious that Russia was not planning to withdraw all its forces from Syria. In fact they made quite clear that they would be maintaining the usual deployment of forces at the Khmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base along with a compliment of Special Forces troops.

Since mid-March those remaining Russian forces have been concentrating supporting the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in the liberation of Palmyra from ISIL. Just last Friday (18/3/16) five Russian Special Forces were killed in fierce fighting with ISIL in Qasr al-Halabat - a town just west of Palmyra.

Today comes the news that the SAA with Russian support have entered the city of Palmyra from the north and have liberated part of the hotel district forcing ISIL back into the city centre. The SAA are also advancing in the east from the direction of the airport. As such it seems that Palmyra is on the brink of liberation.

This news came as US Secretary of State John Kerry was meeting his Russian counterpart in Russia. In what I hope was judgement clouded by envy the US has today also decided to launch the operation to liberate Mosul - ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq.

Sadly we already know how this operation is going to go. We've already seen it in last spring's Tikrit operation and last winter's Ramadi operation. 

ISIL will flee from their positions and mix in with the local population in the surrounding country side. For there they will continue launching attacks long after the city itself has been declared liberated. This is why civilians continue to be attacked with chemical weapons in the town of Taza almost a year after the liberation of Tikrit and why ISIL continues to kill Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) troops near Ramadi several months after the city was declared liberated.

This shift from conventional-style warfare to asymmetric, guerrilla-style warfare will make it almost completely impossible eradicate ISIL. The result will be a permanently destabilised Iraq with all the security implications for the wider world that brings. As such I would have thought that much of the anti-ISIL strategy would be focused on denying ISIL that opportunity.

This is something I've be worried about ever since US President Barack Obama announced that he intended to; "Degrade and ultimately Destroy ISIL." After all the first part of that plan renders the second part impossible. However it is only now that we've been given not one but two examples of ISIL working that out for themselves that I've felt free to talk about it openly.

Therefore it is clear that this Mosul operation must cease immediately. The forces involved then need to be re-deployed to complete the Anbar operation - Fallujah being a particular concern - before they complete the Tikrit operation. After all the Kirkuk triangle seems to be a natural precursor to the Mosul operation.

While I appreciate that Obama sees ISIL as a vital ally rather than an enemy at worst he is only going to remain as President until January 2017. It would be nice if he was prevented from burning every opportunity to the ground before his successor takes over.

Although it probably goes against my better judgement the tone of the media coverage does rather force me to take a moment to comment on this Turkish claim that it warned Belgium about - Ibrahim El Bakraoui - one of the perpetrators of Tuesday's (22/3/16) terror attacks in Brussels.

You may remember that following the Paris Massacres it took me several months to confirm why the explosive TATP was being referred to as; "The Flower/Flour of Turkey." Well let's just say that when it comes to the Brussels attacks the coincidences are starting to pile up. 

The Turkish announcement was intended to head off an potential accusations. However if you look carefully Turkey stopped Ibrahim El Bakraoui as he was returning to Turkey from ISIL held territory in Syria at an undisclosed point in mid-June. This of course was in the midst of the fallout the June 7th (7/6/15) Turkish General Election in which Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice & Development Party (AKP) was shocked to not be able to secure an outright majority.

It was only at the end of June that Turkey deported Ibrahim El Bakraoui - a Belgian national - to the Netherlands rather than Belgium. The only explanation I can think of for this is that Turkey was making it is difficult as possible for Belgian authorities to realise that he had returned to Belgium. The actual Turkish notification was not sent to either the Netherlands or Belgium until mid-July - at least two weeks after Ibrahim El Bakraoui had arrived back in Europe.

So no, Turkey has not provided Belgium or any other European Union (EU) state with what can be termed actionable intelligence in this case.

It must also be said though that it is extremely difficult to discuss the increased terror threat that Belgium is currently experiencing without mentioning the enthusiasm with which its government embraced Glasgow bin Lorry and the Garbage Truck Express.

18:55 on 24/3/16 (UK date).