Operation Featherweight: Month 20, Week 4, Day 6.

As I find myself saying all too often there is one fundamental problem with the war against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups.

It is simply that US President Barack Obama does not view ISIL as either a threat or an enemy. Instead Obama views them as vital ally in assisting the US its objective in ridding the entire Middle-East region of Shia Muslims. Quite why ridding the Middle-East of Shia Muslim's is a US objective remains something of a mystery.

Therefore when in August 2014 overwhelming public pressure forced Obama to take action against ISIL his objective was never to defeat them. Instead it was to stall for time in order to build up some of ISIL's associates as the acceptable public face of genocide.

A key part of this stalling has been to send US ground troops to Iraq to train the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). It is only when this seemingly endless training is fully complete will Obama allow the ISF to contemplate fighting ISIL. To give you an idea of the problem basic training in the British Army last for 6 months. The US has been training the ISF for 20 months.

When the US Train & Equip for insurgent fighters in Syria was forced to be shut down in October 2015 amid widespread defections to Al Qaeda Obama simply ordered the training of the ISF to increase in order by more time. The strategy behind this increased deployment of US ground troops to Iraq is what are known as; "Lilly-pads." This involves establishing a network of small bases close to the front-lines which US troops can hop between rather like a frog on lilly-pads.

This is the strategy that the US deployed at the start of the Vietnam War. There is actually a rather good portrayal of it in the 1968 John Wayne movie "The Green Berets."

Obviously if your strategy is to place US ground troops within range of ISIL positions but not allow them to fight ISIL and force them from those positions it is only a matter of time before ISIL will be able to kill some of those US ground troops. We were all warned of this by the (19/2/16) crash of a Bell Ranger - as in Army Ranger - helicopter in Pearl Harbour of all places.

Last Friday (18/3/16) that prophecy came true. Here ISIL were able to launch a sustained rocket attack against one the lilly-pads near Mahkmour in Iraq's Kurdish north. During this attack several US Marines were wounded and one was killed. On Sunday ISIL were able to mount another attack against the same US base. This time it was a ground attack that managed to reach the perimeter wire of the base. Fortunately no US troops were killed or wounded.

The weekend's attacks forced the US to not only confirm that it has been secretly building up the number of ground troops in Iraq but also expanded their mission. Rather than being a training base the base which came under attack is fire base. Its purpose is to fire artillery against enemy positions within range.

The location of the base is particularly alarming because it is on the Mahkmour front-line which is just outside of Mosul - ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq. The reason why the base has been built is to provide force protection for ISF and Kurdish Peshmerga forces that have begun to assemble in the region ahead of a possible operation to liberate Mosul.

The problem is that the operation to liberate the city of Ramadi and "All of Anbar Province" is still far from over. Just yesterday ISIL were able to use a British suicide bomber to attack the ISF near the town of Ain al-Assad in western Anbar province. ISIL claim that 30 soldiers were killed in the attack while the ISF claim that the suicide bomber succeeded in killing only himself.

Then of course there is the unresolved issue of this triangle of territory between Tikrit, Baiji and Kirkuk. This is of course a job from the Tikrit operation that was left undone before the Anbar operation began.

As such it is hard to explain why Iraqi forces are amassing close to Mosul when so much of the rest of the country is still under ISIL control. Particularly as the Kirkuk triangle operation seems to be a natural precursor to any Mosul operation. It is even harder to explain why the US is encouraging this behaviour by middle a fire base on the Mahkmour front-line.

I understand that this needs to be an Iraqi led operation. However I can't help but wonder if the World's largest and most experienced military should perhaps be strongly suggesting plans at this point rather than seeming to lead the ISF on a wild goose chase.

Iraq's Shia militias who are known collectively as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) have responded to the public announcement of the increased US troop presence as an American attempt to re-occupy Iraq. That strikes me as a very theatrical way of saying that they're starting to get sick of the US' constant delaying tactics.

There was actually an extremely odd incident on the front-lines between ISIL and the Peshmerga close to Mosul last Tuesday (15/3/16). 

Here an ISIL fighter who has since been identified as Mohamad Jamal Khweis - a US/Iraqi/Palestinian dual national - just simply walked up to the Peshmerga positions. The Peshmerga obviously pointed their rifles at him and demanded to know if he was surrendering. This appears to have really confused Khweis who having got lost assumed that he was crossing Iraq's border into Turkey and the Peshmerga were Turkish borders who would welcome him with open arms just like they've done with thousands of ISIL fighters before.

After Khweis had been interrogated for a couple of days though the story suddenly changed. He was now giving press conferences about how he'd realised how he'd made a terrible mistake joining ISIL and had been trying to flee the group rather than heading for a few days rest and relaxation in Turkey. I like to think this change of narrative was the Peshmerga posing questions about another element of the US' curious ISIL strategy.

In recent weeks and months particularly in Syria there has been a significant increase in the number of ISIL fighters have been defecting to go and fight for groups that the US terms the "moderate opposition." The US have been hailing these defections as sign of the success of its strategy. However I'm of the opinion that no matter how many times an extremist switches between differently named groups he's still an extremist. This exchange of personnel also of course highlights just how similar in ideology ISIL and these supposedly moderate groups actually are.

Mind you with Obama's strategy simply to re-brand ISIL I can see why he would consider this sort of thing to be a success.

On the subject of Turkey as I mentioned on the day there was another suicide bombing in Istanbul on Saturday (19/3/16) that killed five. 

With three of the dead and many of the wounded being Israeli citizens the Israeli foreign intelligence service The Mossad very rapidly got involved in the investigation. Within a couple of hours they'd been able to identify the bomber as a Turkish national - Mehmet Ozturk. They then discreetly made this information public fuelling speculation that Ozturk had been an agent of the Turkish services.

This obviously made it impossible for Turkey to blame the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) as they'd originally intended. So on Sunday (20/3/16) Turkey confirmed Ozturk as the bomber and claimed that he'd been working for ISIL. Fortunately in the increasingly elaborate conspiracy that is Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's mind the PKK and ISIL are the same organisation working as part of a global plot to otherthrow him.

On Sunday afternoon Turkey cancelled the always fiery Istanbul football derby between Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe due to an unspecified security threat. I suspect that 'threat' was a concern that if the Turkey's Ultras united in opposition to the regime as they did in Egypt during the 2011 revolution it would only be a matter of hours before Erdogan was handing himself in at the International Criminal Court (ICC) seeking the safety of a cell.

Obviously the secondary objective is to get someone like me to point that out. This would fuel domestic speculation that a global conspiracy is plotting another coup so the Turkish population had better rally around to defend Erdogan. Sadly the fact that there is a complete absence of a global conspiracy to criticise let alone oust Erdogan is a major source of disappointment for me at the moment.

On Monday (21/3/16) Turkey gave the official explanation of why the football match had be cancelled. Apparently they were aware of three suicide bombers who were plotting an imminent attack. Their concern was that they would target this football match like the Stade d'France had been targeted during the Paris Massacres.

In light of Friday's (18/3/16) agreement with the EU this obviously sent the message that Turkey is just like the EU facing the same threats as the EU. Therefore the EU should join with Turkey in its war against the infidels. However with a still much stressed France preparing to host the Euro2016 football tournament in June I felt this carried with it an air of menace.

Literally as the EU-Turkey Summit was ending on Friday (18/3/16) Belgian and French police moved into arrest Saleh Abdeslam - the alleged mastermind of the Paris massacres.

To the surprise of absolutely no-one Abdeslam was arrested in the Molenbeek district of Brussels where he had been sheltered by local residents ever since the Paris massacres. What was particularly alarming about this situation is that as news spread that the raid was targeting Abdeslam local youths tried to stop it by attacking the police with bricks and petrol bombs. Police had to be re-deployed from the EU-Turkey Summit to help contain this mini-riot.

I know I'm in danger of over doing the references to the Northern Irish Troubles but this really was like scenes out of Belfast in the 1970/80's. As such I'm really struggling to see what option the Belgian authorities have other than using the state of emergency legislation that has been in place for five months now to treat Molenbeek and elsewhere as areas under enemy occupation. Provided they stop short of using artillery fire and air-strikes Turkey certainly wouldn't be able to claim any sort of moral high ground.

The reason why I haven't prioritised the arrest of Abdeslam above other more recent events is that unlike the March 2013 Boston Marathon bombers or even the January 2015 Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris is that we already know that he is part of a much larger organisation. The 20 months of air-strikes against ISIL should be a clue to that. So although his arrest is most certainly not a bad thing and over time should uncover significant valuable intelligence in the immediate term Abdeslam's capture makes little difference to the terrorist threat facing the EU.

Also I've been quite concerned about giving a running commentary on events Abdeslam and his associates certainly watch the news. As an example of this in the months since the Paris Massacres certain news outlets have taking great pride in claiming that Abdeslam was supposed to carry out a suicide bombing that night but was too scared to go through with it. This cowardice has led to him being shunned by ISIL preventing him from returning to Syria/Iraq.

Almost immediately after capture Abdeslam confirmed this exact story to investigators. That surely is what they wanted to hear because if Abdeslam was on the run from ISIL too and only being sheltered by a few close friends and family the investigators could rule out the fact he'd stayed in Belgium to co-ordinate more ISIL attacks. I gather though as questioning has continued Abdeslam's story has begun to change as investigators drill down to the truth.

The excitement of the EU-Turkey summit, the capture of Abdeslam, the death of the Marine and the Istanbul bombing - two of the victims were US/Israeli dual nationals seems to send the US into a bit of noisy frenzy over the weekend.

The first curious incident occurred on Saturday (19/3/16) when a bus carrying the Griffen High School basketball team to game in Lafayette overturned on the I-65 Highway in Indiana. Despite being aware of events that occurred later on any reference in this incident was so obscure that I almost dismissed it as just an accident.

However after staring at various reports for about an hour I concluded that the main points were the reference to the Marquis de Lafayette. This member of the French aristocracy was of course George Washington's right-hand man during the US War of Independence as such the various districts and public buildings named after him are testament to fact that France has been the US' military ally for slightly longer than the US has been a country.

Most of the injured in the crash were transported to a hospital in Illinois which of course is US President Obama's adoptive home state. Obama once famously compared ISIL to a Junior Varsity (JV) or High School basketball team.

Demonstrating that there are many places in the US named after the Marquis de Lafayette in the US and living in one can be a bit dangerous at the moment Saturday (19/3/16) also saw 22 people - mainly children - being taken to hospital after being exposed to Chlorine gas at a local swimming pool in Lafayette, Colorado.

This seemed intended to mock Obama's outrage at poorly founded accusations that the Syrian government has used Chlorine as a chemical weapon compared with his ambivalence to ISIL and associated groups routine of Sulphur Mustard Gas. After all while - particularly when children are involved - you would prefer for people to be monitored by a medical professional Chlorine gas is actually pretty harmless.

However back at the end of February the US captured Daoud al-Afari- ISIL's chemical weapons chief. In this context a mention of chemical weapons alongside a show of US solidarity with France in the face of terrorism could trigger a lot of concern in the EU about exactly what Afari had revealed about ISIL's capabilities.

On Saturday (19/3/16) afternoon Los Angeles police announced that they had discovered a human skull close to the famous Hollywood sign in Griffith Park. This is similar to the Griffen High School involved in the bus accident. The skull is believed to belong to Hervey Medillin who was as Hispanic as his name would suggest.

As such Spain seemed to get the impression that all this US noise was directed at them. After all sitting extremely close to North Africa southern Spain actually used to be part of this medieval Islamic Caliphate that ISIL are trying to recreate. 

Plus the history of Irish Republicanism seems to have emerged as a theme for discussions about the war on ISIL. Both France & Spain are linked to this history through Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) who fought for an autonomous Basque nation straddling the border between Spain & France. I should point out though that due to the religious, sectarian element Irish lesson is probably of most use.

So on Sunday (20/3/16) 13 people were killed when a bus carrying Erasmus students crashed in similar fashion to the Griffen High School bus some 150km (90 miles) south of the Catalan capital Barcelona near the town of Freginals. That of course is not to be confused with Finglas in the Republic of Ireland.

Although the Basque region and the Catalan region are separate they both want independence for Spain. I've actually heard stories about the sort of firework display these Eramus students were returning from. Apparently when then fireworks finish and the bonfires are burning low the old rebel songs start coming out in force.  

At around 22:35 on 22/3/16 (UK date) this is sadly as far as I can get tonight. I will finish up tomorrow. Possibly in a separate post.

However in light of today's triple bombings in Brussels, Belgium I'm looking back at what I've covered and thinking of what I've still got to write. I can't help but wonder if maybe an important detail got missed amid all that noise.