Operation Featherweight: Month 7, Week 4, Day 7.

While I've been rather unprofessionally distracted by the Oscars it has been a somewhat busy period in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

In my last post on the subject I mentioned that ISIL had begun to regain the initiative with fresh offensives against Kurdish positions in northern Iraq and these attacks continued over the weekend. For example on Thursday (19/2/15) into Friday (20/2/15) ISIL attacked the village of Qoban and made three attacks against the Kurdish Peshmerga front-line at Badooshi and a single attack on the front-line at Khazir.

Although I think these were serious attempts to break through the Peshmerga's lines and seize territory these attacks were not on the scale of last Tuesday's (17/2/15) attacks on the towns of Gwer and Makhmour and were easily repelled. For example the threat of coalition air-strikes forced ISIL to make one of their attacks on foot without any vehicles which made it very easy to cut down with machine gun fire. These attacks do though force the Peshmerga to concentrate on defending their territory rather then liberating territory from ISIL and it does use up their resources.

There are also lingering concerns that the US-led coalition is still not providing the required level of air-support because these 6 attacks on resulted in 4 coalition air-strikes and I am confused as to why ISIL are still permitted to have heavy weaponry such as artillery in range of Peshmerga or Iraqi army positions.

As part of this fresh push against the Peshmerga on Monday (23/2/15) released a video showing what it claimed to be 21 Peshmergas who were captured during the recent fighting being paraded through Mosul in cages. Although I doubt it is the sort of thing that they would comment on unless forced to I'm not aware of any large scale capture of Peshmergas recently. As such I think it is likely that to produce this video ISIL instead rounded up pretty much every Kurdish male prisoner of military age they have to give the impression they've secured some significant military victory.

In the first instance the idea is to intimidate or terrorise the Peshmerga into thinking that they to could be the the next to captured in order to make them paranoid and afraid weakening their ability and possibly will to fight. In the second instance I think that ISIL is likely to attempt to use the fate of these prisoners to blackmail the coalition into changing their tactics. This is something the coalition simply cannot do and which is why I find it easier to think of ISIL prisoners as dead from the moment they are captured.

The ISIL attacks on the Peshmerga slowly petered out over the weekend. In part this is because once again bad weather has brought snow to the region. However a much larger reason is that on Sunday (22/2/15) the Iraqi Peshmerga and the Syrian Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) launched a co-ordinated offensive against ISIL positions close to the border with Iraq and the southern boundary of the Cizire Canton.

This operation is ongoing but it has already succeeded in pushing ISIL fighters away from the border where they were threatening the Sinjar/Shingal mountains, cutting a major supply route between Mosul and ISIL positions in Syria and pushing ISIL back from the canton border beyond the city of Al-Hasakah.

Unfortunately ISIL have responded to this offensive by launching almost commando-style raids in order to kidnap people from within the Cizire Canton. The most serious of these incidents occurred yesterday (24/2/15) when between 90 and 150 Christians belonging to the Assyrian ethnic group were kidnapped. As with the Peshmergas who were shown in Monday's (23/2/15) ISIL video the purpose of these kidnappings is to weaken the YPG line by spreading fear and possibly try and blackmail them into ending the offensive.

The only suggestion I can offer is that civilians are evacuated from their front-lines for their protection. The situation does though serve to further highlight why the coalition must co-ordinate more closely with the YPG to protect the cantons so they can be used as a safe haven for civilians while the fighting continues to drag on.

On Friday (20/2/15) it emerged that three British schoolgirls aged 14 and 15 had runaway from home to join ISIL in Syria via Turkey. This is a story that the western media in particular has been obsessed with over the past couple of days but if you are familiar with the conflict it is almost a routine event.

For the last two to three years European nations have been operating a pipeline to funnel Islamist fighters into Syria using just this route. Although the European nations have recently started making efforts to shutdown this pipeline (sometimes referred to as "The Garbage Truck Express") at their end Turkey has not been playing its part and seems intent to keep the pipeline open.

The reason why these teenage girls have decided to join ISIL is very much the same mix of teenage angst and raging hormones that drives other teenage girls to obsess over boy bands such as "One Direction" and sometimes run away to see them on tour. It is for these reasons why that in western societies girls of that age are considered children and therefore not allowed to vote, marry or have sex. However many Arab societies do not view young girls in the same way and ISIL in particular like their 'wives' to be very young.

As a result while we can discuss at length the complex reasons for why and how these girls were exploited into joining ISIL it strikes me that it is going to cause a lot of tension without achieving much success. After all it eventually comes down to one individuals ability to press another individuals buttons.

Therefore I think that it is much more important that efforts are concentrated physically stopping naive girls like this from travelling to join ISIL. Turkey are being absolutely no help whatsoever in this effort and are in fact exerting pressure on the US in particular for this pipeline to be kept open so it can challenge US trained and equipped Islamist fighters into Syria.

Due to these doubts over Turkey's commitment to fighting ISIL its demands that western intelligence agencies share more information with them seem like a trick to allow Turkey to combat and circumvent the methods used to fight ISIL.

As a result I think European nations in particular do need to seriously consider imposing an exit visa system for travel to Turkey. If such a system had been in place these girls would have had to provide parental consent and a credible reason for travelling to Turkey in order to be allowed to board their flight. In the unlikely event that they would be able to meet those criteria the two to three week delay in getting the application processed would have given them time to cool off or for an adult to notice what they were up to and intervene.

Speaking of Turkey on Sunday (22/2/15) they launched a bizarre military incursion deep into Syria. This involved them sending a convoy of around 100 tanks and armoured vehicles through the Kobane Canton to the tomb of Suleiman Shah which is an 8km^2 pocket of Turkish territory in Syria's Aleppo Province. The Turkish convoy then linked up with the 40 Turkish troops who had been guarding the site, took down the Turkish flag and destroyed the site itself before returning to Turkey with Suleiman Shah's remains.

On the face of it this was a hugely provocative and completely illegal move by Turkey. After all they have absolutely no authority to enter Syria without permission and the last time Turkey sent fighters into Kobane Canton they were ISIL fighters and it wasn't a sign of friendship.

However the operation also seems to have been a sign that Turkey is beginning to understand that it doesn't get a say in how the coalition are fighting ISIL. After all by removing their flag and destroying the site Turkey has now given up its claim to this part of Syrian territory and by removing the troops who had been guarding the site it is no longer able to argue that it has a duty to protect them.

At around 18:00 on 25/2/15 (UK date) I have a bit more about the situation in Libya but that will have to wait until after dinner.
 
Edited at around 19:45 on 25/2/15 (UK date) to add;

I should point out that I am aware that the Iraqi army has launched an operation to liberate al-Baghdadi and then there is the issue of the US' unprecedented decision to inform ISIL of its plans to liberate Mosul. My main objection to that is that it gave away far too much information and as such is a difficult subject for me to discuss here. I will though try and deal with it more fully tomorrow when I've had time to consider what I want to say.

However I think it is pretty common knowledge that protecting the seat of power is the first priority of any military strategy. As such I've always thought that removing ISIL from Anbar province is more important then liberating Mosul.

Away from Iraq and Syria there is now also the fight against ISIL in Libya. So far because there is not much happening I've been able to talk about this at the same time as talking about Iraq and Syria. However as efforts increase I may have to start treating that as a separate operation.

The main reason why things are so quiet in Libya at the moment is because there is an impasse between Egypt who want to work with the internationally recognised Libyan government in Tobruk and members of the UN who want to see the Libyan government become more inclusive before they lift the arms embargo. Annoyingly this is one of those chicken and egg scenarios where really both things need to happen at the same time in co-ordination with each other.

In the immediate aftermath of the overthrow of Qaddafi an inclusive government was elected in Tripoli.  Although after 40 years of Qaddafi I wouldn't say that anyone in Libya is particularly expert at democratic-style politics the Islamist factions in particular have had great trouble understanding that rather then getting everything you want there has to be a bit of give and take between different factions. I

nstead what they did was get the Islamist militias that eventually formed the Libyan Dawn militia to literally stick a gun to the head of the other members of the government until they gave in and did what the Islamists wanted. Eventually the Libya Dawn militia forced the government to leave Tripoli entirely.

As a result rather then being two entirely separate governments although they have both since added new members the self-declared government in Tripoli is actually just the Islamist factions of the Libyan government that is now located in Tobruk. Therefore at the risk of famous last words it shouldn't be impossible for the Islamist factions to simply rejoin the Tobruk government which will presumably then return to Tripoli. The big challenge is going to be getting the Islamists to understand that they cannot use force as part of the Parliamentary process.

In practical terms that means disarming and disbanding the Libyan Dawn militia. If they cannot be encouraged to do that voluntarily then military force will have to be used to destroy the weapons they do possess and the arms embargo will have to be properly enforced to make sure they don't get more weapons.

At the same time the arms embargo on the Libyan government in Tobruk will have to be at least loosened to allow them to fight ISIL and further deter the Islamists from using violence as part of the political process.

20:15 on 25/2/15 (UK date).