As I covered at the time last Tuesday (3/2/15) the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) released a video showing their brutal murder of Jordanian pilot Moaz al-Kasaesbeh. The US' response to this video was to mock Jordan for their loss in one of the most offensive ways imaginable. Despite this Jordan's response to the killing of al-Kasaesbeh over the past week has been robust to say the least.
At the risk of giving too much away this type of air campaign involves building up an intelligence picture of how and where the enemy operates. This is then used to draw up a list of targets such as command centres, concentrations of troops and weapons stores to be destroyed. So far in this operation that target list has had to be passed all the way up the chain of command to US President Barack Obama. If and only if Obama cannot dream up a reason not to attack a target then a small number of targets can be destroyed per day.
Over the past week Jordan has essentially snatched the first couple of pages of the target list in Syria and said; "We're doing that now." Even amongst the hardened military personnel that make up the coalition no-one has had the courage to disagree with Jordan at this point.
After just two days of this intensified air campaign on Friday (6/2/15) ISIL screamed out in pain and begged for it to stop. This involved announcing that US hostage Kayla Mueller had been killed in a Jordanian air-strike on an ISIL controlled building in Raqqa. This was of course a complete lie and one intended to make the US so angry at Jordan that it used its influence within the coalition to protect ISIL from further Jordanian air-strikes.
Over the weekend ISIL then sent photographs of Ms Mueller's corpse to her family in an effort to provide proof of their claim. Although I have not seen these photographs I gather that they show Ms Mueller having died of the type crush/impact injures that you would associate with a building collapse following an air-strike. However these type of injures are very easily faked especially by a group that frequently stones women to death as punishment. You may also remember that the video showing al-Kasaesbeh's killing ended with several tonnes of rubble being dumped on him by a front-loader JCB-type digger.
Far from creating a rift Jordan's intensified campaign seems to have attracted deep support across much of the US-led coalition. Immediately following al-Kasaesbeh's capture the United Arab Emirates (UAE) suspended their air-operations against ISIL until the US could provide them with answers to some very technical questions about search & rescue procedures that struck me as a metaphor for the more general lack of direction the operation is suffering from. Following the release of Tuesday's video the US immediately gave into every specific demand that UAE had made and the UAE resumed their operation.
In fact the UAE haven't just resumed their operation but have moved to intensify it by moving their strike aircraft to bases in Jordan. They are soon to be joined by surveillance aircraft and signals intelligence troops from the UK meaning that Jordan is fast becoming the main base for coalition operations that we had hoped United States Air Force (USAF) base Incirlik in Turkey would be.
Although providing a centre of operations will help give the coalition some of the focus it has been seriously lacking I am a little concerned that Jordan sits to the south of Syria while the ISIL positions they will be striking are located in northern Syria. While it makes sense for coalition aircraft to skirt the front-lines of Iraq on their way too and from ISIL targets in Syria increasing the number of flights over Syria without the permission of the Syrian government increases the risk of a confrontation between the coalition and the Syrian government that will only aid ISIL.
While I cannot in any way fault the way that Jordan has intensified the air campaign even beforehand I was concerned that air operations may have already been too effective and may need to be scaled back in order for a ground force to be moved into position to manage ISIL's seemingly imminent collapse. In terms of putting that ground force together there is not a shortage of volunteers.
Having liberated the border city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab at the end of January the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) have continued to liberate the area around Kobane which is known as the Kobane Canton. Although they are continuing to meet with resistance from ISIL the YPG have managed to extend their control to around 35-40km (21-24 miles) from Kobane itself in all directions. As a result the entire canton in the centre of northern Syria is now on the brink of being fully liberated. The YPG of course never lost control of the Cizire Canton which borders Iraq to the east.
On the Iraqi side of the border the Kurdish Peshmerga now control the entire northern region as far as Iraq's second largest city of Mosul. Having recently liberated the town Tal Afar which sits on the main supply route between Mosul and ISIL's positions in Syria the Peshmerga have continued to close in on Mosul itself with limited close air-support from the coalition.
The 50% of the Iraqi national army (some 150,000 men) which the US classifies as either "good" or "very good" have stopped ISIL from advancing elsewhere in the country and having recently liberated the entire eastern Diyala province are now sitting around waiting for their next move.
The only real problem at this stage is US President Obama who is refusing to allow the coalition to back any of these available ground forces. Instead Obama wishes to delay ground operations until the US can train Sunni-Arab insurgents groups in Syria many of whom are allied to ISIL to act as a ground force. Sadly he has yet to provide any explanation of how these Syrian insurgent groups will come to operate in Iraq without them being considered an invasion force.
Obama's latest blocking tactic came on Friday (6/2/15) when it was claimed that US ground troops would have to be sent to liberate Mosul. The sub-text of this claim is that Shia militias who have backed the Iraqi army in previous operations cannot be trusted to enter Sunni areas without slaughtering the local population in revenge.
Although the US is massively over-stating the risk as always with militias there are some legitimate concerns over the levels of discipline amongst the Shia fighters. However if the US were to commit to supporting the liberation of Mosul it wouldn't be at all difficult to draw up a plan that saw the militia's back filling to provide security in areas when the Iraq government is already in control while the much more disciplined Peshmerga and Iraqi army units led the liberation operation.
Today Obama has sent a request for authorisation to use military force (AUMF) against ISIL to the US Congress. The timing of this move is extremely hostile because it comes in the middle of a global meeting to tackle climate change. Within that UN process this new breed of Islamist terrorists such as ISIL and Boko Haram in west Africa are viewed as an effort by the oil-rich Gulf states to intimidate nations into not taking action to combat climate change.
ISIL's Yemen affiliate recently managed to carry out an attack in Paris, France where this agreement is supposed to be signed at the end of 2015. The US has also today broken off diplomatic ties with a Yemeni government that intends to fight the ISIL branch that carried out the Paris attacks in what can only be viewed as tacit US support for the terrorists.
Amid the open threats of violence the last thing the climate change talks need is yet another complex political document that needs to be read and interpreted. I will though read through Obama's AUMF request as soon as I can track down a copy.
It must be said though that with France committing an aircraft carrier and New Zealand moving to send strike and support aircraft the coalition is most certainly not lacking in air-power. As such the best way forward may well be for the US Congress to deny Obama his AUMF because with him and his odd views removed from the equation the fight against ISIL will only intensify and pick up speed.
Hopefully though Obama will be prepared to break with the habit of his Presidency and engage in a sensible negotiation with Congress to draw up a viable plan that backs existing local forces defeat ISIL in the next six to twelve months.
17:00 on 11/2/15 (UK date).
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