Tuesday 30 December 2014

Wow, Palestine's a State.

Perhaps because they'd taken the BBC's "The Honourable Woman" a little bit too literally the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Israel - no, sorry the Fatah controlled Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank - responded to the summer's war in Gaza by tonight finally forcing through a vote on Palestinian statehood at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Obviously I am somewhat less then impressed that they're asking me to deal with this on a Tuesday night when, as always, I've been to the pub.

Although due to the festive break I didn't get the opportunity to obtain let alone study the blue text I understand that despite French attempts to soften the proposal the motion tabled by Jordan still required Israel to withdraw within the 1967 borders by, my lord, 2017. If you've had a look at the state of Israeli politics in the aftermath of the summer war you would know that this is simply not possible. On a related note although mine is an endorsement Netenyahu could probably live without I think all Israelis should think long and hard about the size of man they're trying to get rid off.

Honestly I think the best outcome of a resolution being adopted would have been for Israel to look around the room and go; "Supported ISIL in Syria,  Supported the UIA in Ukraine, Supported Boko Haram in Nigeria, Killed Qaddafi in Libya, Looked at Hitler in Germany and considered him a jolly nice chap." I think this is just another UN resolution we can safely ignore.

The worst outcome would be that when the next Islamic Jihad missile lands in Israel for Israel to go; "Oh look, the newly formed Palestinian state has just declared war on us. Under international law we can now invade and occupy "Palestine" until such a time as we know longer consider them a threat. In the meantime they will be expected to submit their INDC's to the UNFCCC in the first quarter of 2015."

Obviously then everyone knew that this was a stupid idea. However being vicious anti-Semites and proud Zionists as long as the al-Sauds run Zion the UK quietly supported the motion through the UNSC and UK Commonwealth members Rwanda and Nigeria. Rather then having the motion pass the UK' intention here was to put pressure on the US to veto because Obama is both a vicious anti-Semite and generally a bit of a coward. With question marks being raised over the US veto at the last minute Nigeria reversed their support to an abstention meaning that the motion fell just one vote short of the 9 vote majority that would require a veto. The UK need not have bothered though because at the very last minute the US decided to cast their veto carrying "No" vote. Australia also vote no but despite the infection no-one's ever really voted their balls.

While all this was going on I was actually watching the BBC's "Charlie Brooker's 2014 Wipe" which if you saw the Sochi 2014 Olympic Opening Ceremony you would understand is essential viewing. Despite the fact that he clearly went in hard on my little brother during the "Pharrell William's Happy is great music to run over your dog to" skit I'm going to be charitable and assume that he gave over part of the show to Adam Curtis and his "Power of Nightmares" foolishness to highlight the type of conspiracy theorist lunacy he'd be forced to accept if he was left working for Channel 4 and The Guardian newspaper full time.

After all it's quite clear Vladislav Surkov only published the article to highlight what the US is doing in Ukraine. The reason why the rest of the news is so unrelentingly miserable is that since 2010 the UK's been run by a bunch of mentals and so far Obama's been too cowardly to say "No."

00:15 on 31/12/14 (UK date).

Edited at around 12:10 on 31/12/14 (UK date) to add;

I've now had a good sleep and the alcohol induced headache is starting to fade. However my position on last night's vote has not changed.

As I've said throughout in order to achieve statehood Palestine must first build a functioning state in all but name. Only then can the Palestinians starting requesting that other nations recognise their state. Therefore true progress will come not from big and dramatic votes at the UNSC but a series of small agreements that strengthen the PA. Off the top of my head I would say that agreements that allow the PA to issue deeds of ownership and other building permits along with taking more responsibility for security in what will become the Palestinian state seem particularly important areas.

This very confrontational campaign for UN recognition actually seems to make that less likely. Although certainly not all Israeli Jews are are aggressive Zionist settlers people with those views make up a significant constituency within Israeli politics. The thing that the Palestinians seem unable to understand is that Israel is a democracy therefore if the government does something a large proportion of the population does not like the people will simply change the government. Through the 1995 assassination of Yitzhak Rabin it is clear that some Jewish extremists are prepared to go even further then that and simply kill Prime Ministers they don't agree with.

By aggressively pursuing the issue of statehood at the UN and in effect handing Israel a list of demands the Palestinians are substantially provoking the Jewish extremists. In response the extremists will themselves become even more aggressive and their demands will become even more extreme. This makes it next to impossible for the Israeli government to make the series of compromises that are required to allow Palestine to achieve statehood.

Then of course there is the issue of the extra responsibilities that statehood will place on the Palestinians. The one I obviously immediately think off is the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) but there are also a host of other international agreements that on becoming a state Palestine must immediately abide by. If a Palestinian state cannot abide by those conventions then often there will be immediate and serious consequences. For example if rockets were to be fired from a Palestinian state rather then an Israeli occupied territory it would be viewed as an act of aggressive war. That would immediately invalidate Palestinian statehood and allow Israel - or any other nation being attacked - to invade and occupy Palestine until such a time as they are satisfied that the threat has been eliminated.

Sadly looking at the way that Palestine is now with it being divided between Fatah and Hamas and government wages not getting paid because of internal feuds I simply don't think that Palestine is ready to take on the responsibilities that statehood brings.

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