Sunday 9 November 2014

Operation Featherweight: Month 4, Week1 , Day 3.

Over the past several days the Battle of Kobane/Ay al-Arab has continued just 1km (0.6 miles) from Syria's border with Turkey. On what is now the 56th day of this battle if there is any momentum it is with the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) who have been defending the city from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

The YPG have been focusing their efforts on pushing ISIL fighters from positions in the east of the city particularly around Freedom Square and the Governance district. Here they have steadily been pushing ISIL back street-by-street and house-by-house. On Saturday (8/11/14) the YPG succeeded in liberating the area around the Reshad Mosque although sadly as they were retreating ISIL demolished the Mosque in what seems little more then an exercise in spite. During this fighting large amounts of weapons and ammunition have been captured from ISIL and at least 41 ISIL fighters have been killed. The YPG also succeeded in capturing alive Abdul-Hadi Obaid - a Saudi national who is believed to be the overall ISIL commander (Emir) in charge of the operation to capture Kobane.

In contrast ISIL seem to have been focusing on the western and in particular the southern portion of the city launching wave after wave of attacks in an effort to seize fresh territory. Fortunately the YPG have been able to repel all of these attacks killing at least 12 ISIL fighters in the process.

Despite these significant victories the progress in fully liberating Kobane remains painfully slow and the military balance between the YPG and ISIL remains precarious.

Sadly there is no sign that this balance will be dramatically tipped in the YPG's favour by the establishment of a supply corridor through Turkey. If anything following the US' rather strange air-strikes against the Free Men of the Levant (FML) group in Bab al-Hawa - around 45km (27 miles) west of Aleppo city on the border with Turkey - on Thursday (6/11/14) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to have been emboldened in his commitment to let Kobane fall.

Within hours of the strikes against FML Turkey moved to further seal the border between Kobane and Turkey. Initially Turkish troops opened fire on YPG units within Kobane effectively declaring war on Syria. Then when Kurdish protesters on the Turkish side of the border reacted angrily to this Turkish troops fired tear gas and then live ammunition into the crowds killing at least one women - 28 year old Kader Ortakaya, a Turkish citizen of Kurdish descent.

With Turkey renewing its commitment to killing Kurds and seeming to join the fight on ISIL's behalf on Friday (7/11/14) ISIL escalated its attempts to kill Kurdish civilians by shelling a group of refugees who have become trapped between Kobane and the Turkish border. At least 2 civilians were killed in this attack which was brought to an end by YPG forces in Kobane with absolutely no support from the US-led coalition.

Also on Thursday the UK confirmed that it is sending ground troops to Iraq in order to train Kurdish and Iraqi forces. As I mentioned at the time this seemed like an effort to remind the US that it is supposed to be conducting an operation to defeat ISIL and the main focus of that operation needs to be in Iraq. On Friday US President Obama responded to this by announcing that he intends to send a further 1,600 US troops to Iraq also to train local forces bringing the total up to around 4,200.

This strikes me as Obama trying to reduce the pressure on him to explain why after more then three months he still doesn't have a coherent operation to defeat ISIL up and running in Iraq. The argument that Obama is trying to put forward is that the operation cannot begin because Iraqi troops aren't up to standard yet and need more training. However those Iraqi troops seemed to be doing just fine at the start of September when the US suddenly decided to start bombing targets in Syria instead.

Although they won't be sent into front line combat the majority of these US troops will be stationed in Iraq's capital Baghdad. That is currently a city where if they only experience a single suicide bombing killing dozens they consider it a quiet day. ISIL have made it quite clear that they intended to force the US in particular to move away from air-strikes to which ISIL have no response towards sending in ground troops that ISIL can kill for huge propaganda value. So with memories of the 1983 suicide bombings at the US Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon in mind I think the US should consider this a hazardous deployment and its troops should be paid accordingly.

Obama has rather kindly decided to grant the newly Republican Congress a say in this deployment along with its financial costs. Given that Obama's ISILoperation is sketchy a best along with his plans to force through an amnesty for illegal immigrants and appoint the Al Sharpton linked Loretta Lynch as US Attorney General he seems to be demanding that Congress block his plan meaning that it may not actually happen. It also doesn't bode well for the next two years of US politics being particularly harmonious.

Given his seeming unwillingness to fight ISIL or even put pressure on Turkey Obama was clearly in the need of a big, headline grabbing victory against ISIL to show that he is taking the issue seriously. So on Saturday the US struck a convoy of around 10 vehicles believed to be carrying senior members of the ISIL leadership close to the Iraqi city of Mosul which is around 330km (198 miles) north of Baghdad. It has since been confirmed that ISIL commander-in-chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was lightly wounded in that attack. I though consider this attack to be both lacking in military value and even extremely reckless and counter productive. Annoyingly though I cannot expand any further on why I think that is the case.

However I think it is fair to say that since Obama became President in 2008 and instigated his drone program that US has fallen back into the old Vietnam-era trap of equating a high body count and crossing names off a kill list with military success. This has been a particular problem in Yemen where Obama has massively increased the number of Al Qaeda leaders being killed by drones. Those leaders are quickly replaced and the conflict continues. The conflict in Yemen is currently entering its 15th year and is showing no signs of ending any time soon.

18:45 on 9/11/14 (UK date).

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