On Syria's northern border with Turkey the Battle of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab is now into its 67th day. Although I don't want to jinx things it seems that we might now be at the beginning of the end of the battle or at least at the end of the middle.
On the cities southern front the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) who are defending Kobane completed a fresh offensive Sunday (16/11/14) to re-take several streets and key positions held by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In the days since this YPG success ISIL have made no attempt to re-capture the territory they have lost. This has left the YPG free to mount patrols in the area which have succeeded in killing 15 ISIL fighters, capturing large quantities of weapons and ammunition and defusing a number of booby traps (Improvised Explosive Devices/IED) left by ISIL.
On the eastern front the YPG on Sunday launched an operation to re-capture the Sukul Hal district along with areas around Azadi (Freedom) Square and the adjacent municipality/governance district. Much to the YPG's surprise ISIL simply melted away from the Azadi Square area meaning that a lot of territory was captured almost without a shot being fired. Along with large quantities of weapons and ammunition ISIL also abandoned their dead meaning that the first YPG fighters in discovered 23 bodies including two senior ISIL commanders known as Abu Haris and Saiful Islam.
Again ISIL made no attempt to launch a counter-offensive so after consolidating their position the YPG on Wednesday (19/11/14) launched a new operation to liberate parts of the Sukul Hal district. This operation was successful in liberating the small areas it targeted and it seems that ISIL were only able to put up light resistance with 7 ISIL fighters being killed bringing the total killed in that area since Sunday to 12. In that same period 1 YPG fighter has been killed across all fronts.
On the western front the YPG have continued to push out beyond Kobane's walls launching operations to liberate the villages of Minaz, Gire Iza and Mazra which sit around 5km (3 miles) from Kobane itself. In these villages it is still very much a case of the YPG launching an operation to seize territory from ISIL only for ISIL to launch a counter-attack forcing the YPG to consolidate these gains. However the YPG is succeeding in taking and holding territory and 22 ISIL fighters have been killed with no loss of Kurdish life.
Due to the continuing operations to liberate the south of Kobane which are by necessity slow and steady the YPG have not yet been able to liberate Mishtenur hill which overlooks the south-east of the city. However it has been almost a week since ISIL have been able to fire on Kobane from the hill so I think it is now best thought of as a sort of no-mans land rather then an ISIL fighting position.
Key to the silencing of ISIL positions on Mishtenur hill has been the YPG operation to liberate the village of Helinj which sits on the main road between Kobane and the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa some 140km (84 miles) to the south-east. The YPG have not only succeeded in holding Helinj but they have also succeeded in expanding their position to include the near-by village of Jalabiyah. This means that the YPG have now established an effective buffer zone between ISIL forces in Kobane and ISIL forces in Raqqa.
Although the fighting is not over these gains mean that we are now in a position where we can start thinking about establishing a defensive perimeter around Kobane so ISIL can never again get close to the city and it can be used as a safe haven for civilians in the area. In order to do this the YPG will need medium to long range weapons such as heavy artillery guns and Grad/Katyusha type rocket launchers along with plenty of ammunition. That way they can then rain down fire on ISIL forces located several kilometres away in order to prevent them from assembling an attacking force to launch a fresh attempt to capture Kobane.
That makes the assertion on Tuesday (18/11/14) by Masoud Barzani, President of Iraq’s Kurdistan region that the US-led coalition is simply not doing enough to support the Kurds with heavy weapons and ammunition sadly wholly accurate and incredibly well timed.
Despite the almost complete lack of support from the coalition Iraq's Kurds have also been making significant gains against ISIL. In Diyal province which sits to the west of Iraq's capital Baghdad the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga worked alongside the Iraqi Army to liberate the towns of Saadiya and Jalula which have been under ISIL control since June. Along with the liberation of Adhaim Dam over the weekend this latest operation helps to further reduce the amount of territory under ISIL control. In Kirkuk province which sits around 50km (30 miles) south of the Iraqi Kurdish capital of Arbil the Peshmerga liberated the town of Kharbaroot. Although it is not a particularly significant town and one that shows up on few maps the liberation of Kharbaroot means that ISIL have now been pushed at least 35km (22 miles) from the city of Kirkuk which has been under siege since June.
In light of all these gains it is tempting to celebrate rather then mourn the suicide car bomb attack in Arbil which killed 5 yesterday. After all it seems the occasional car bombing is all that ISIL can manage against the Kurds these days.
Unusually for operations of this type in their effort to liberate Kharbaroot the Peshmerga were provided with substantial close air support by the US-led coalition. Led by French and British aircraft the Peshmerga's advance was proceeded by a repeated air-strikes against a defensive trench/bunker/barricade network that ISIL had built around the town. Once those defensive positions had been destroyed it was much as easier for the Peshmerga to move in and take control of the territory.
US aircraft also played a small role in the operation because as they are leading the coalition any air operation must first receive US approval. I suspect the conversations between the US and the British and French commanders who were seeking permission for that particular operation were rather interesting.
Left to their own devices the US still seems much more interested in carrying out symbolic air-strikes that are of limited military value but provide plenty of interesting political talking points. On Tuesday the US once again struck targets belonging to the mythical Khorasan Group close to the town of Haram which sits on Syria's border with Turkey some 64km (38 miles) west of Aleppo City. As I explained in my previous post on the subject the Khorasan Group only really exist as a euphemism for Iran or more generally Shia Muslims while Aleppo City provides a microcosm of the entire Syria conflict.
Therefore this strike again seems to be the US attempting to discuss with Turkey using Sunni-Arab insurgents to fight ISIL in Syria. However as Haram is generally considered ISIL held territory and its name translates as "Sinful/Forbidden" it could have been an attempt to discuss the way in which Turkey seems to view ISIL as just another Sunni-Arab insurgent group.
Turkey's response to this was to announce that it had not yet confirmed its permission to train 2000 Sunni-Arab insurgents in Turkey as the US offered over the weekend. This really highlights want an absolute mess US President Barack Obama is making of this entire operation. The logical thing for the coalition to do would be to work with the Kurds to defeat ISIL in both Iraq and Syria while leaving the conflict between the Syrian government and the other Sunni-Arab insurgent groups to its own devices. However Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is blocking this firstly because he passionately hates Kurds and secondly because he wants to use the fight against ISIL as a sneaky way to build up the Sunni-Arab insurgent groups who are fighting the predominately Shia-Arab Syrian government.
Given how obstructive he is being most people would have told Erdogan to p*ss off by now but Obama's handling of the situation has been so poor that he now seems to be in the position where he is not only giving in to every one of Erdogan's demands but he is also being forced to make concessions in order to give into Erdogan's demands.
Within Iraq's capital Baghdad ISIL suicide car bombings continue often with such attacks occurring several times a day. The overwhelming majority of these target civilians in Shia neighbourhoods. However on Sunday ISIL succeeded in attacking a United Nations (UN) convoy as it made its way from Baghdad international airport to Baghdad's "Green Zone" along what is known to many as "Route Irish." Although no UN personnel were killed in this attack it is an extremely bad sign given Obama's plan to double the number of US troops on the ground in Baghdad. After all ISIL have made it extremely clear that they intend to kill American troops and this demonstrates that they have the capability to do so. Therefore I seriously think that the US Congress will have to look very hard at blocking Obama's proposal at least until they can secure concrete support for the Kurds in return.
US President Obama will tonight address the American public during a prime time televised speech. However he will not be talking about the recent killing of Peter Kassig nor how the wider fight against ISIL is progressing. Instead Obama - a Democrat - will use it as an opportunity to fire the starting pistol on a massive confrontation with the newly Republican Congress over immigration reform.
As such I think it's becoming clearer why Obama has such an affinity for domestic abusers such as Chris Brown. After all Obama's clearly too much of a coward to stand up for himself at work so instead he picks fights in his home(land) in a pitiful effort to prove that he's a tough guy.
17:50 on 20/11/14 (UK date).
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