The Battle of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab is continuing into it's 58th day. In this small but strategically important city that sits just 1km (0.6 miles) from Syria's border with Turkey the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) who are defending Kobane have continued to make gains against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
On Sunday (9/11/14) the YPG launched an offensive in the eastern Kaniya Kurdan neighbourhood. This offensive lasted for more then 18 hours in which unconfirmed casualties were sustained both sides. It succeeded in re-taking part of a single street along with a couple of key buildings. In the eastern governance/municipality district of the city clashes have continued in which at least 13 ISIL fighters have been killed although neither the YPG nor ISIL have attempted let alone succeeded in capturing fresh territory. In the south of the city there are reports - unconfirmed at this time - that the YPG have succeeded in re-capturing some territory following a fresh offensive that began on Sunday evening. However as with the city's western front the fighting seems to have eased in the past couple of days. So say it quietly but it is starting to look as though despite all their claims to the contrary ISIL have started to give up on Kobane.
Another possible reason behind ISIL's sudden lack of will to fight at Kobane could be confusion in the ranks over the fate of the group's commander-in-chief and self-appointed Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Almost as soon as the US carried out an air-strike on an ISIL convoy near Mosul, Iraq on Friday (7/11/14)/Saturday (8/11/14) rumours started to fly that al-Baghdadi had been killed in the strike. These were mainly being circulated by the US who were keen to boast about their exploits. However on Sunday evening ISIL confirmed that al-Baghdadi had been in the convoy that was struck but had only been lightly wounded rather then killed. A few hours later the Iraqi government announced that al-Baghdadi had been wounded but in an attack by the Iraqi Air Force that took place near the town of al-Qaim which is on Iraq's border with Syria and around 265km (160 miles) south-west of Mosul. Since then the US has started to deny that al-Baghdadi had even been wounded in any strike. This change in position by the US seems like a deliberate attempt to snub the Iraqi government.
This tension between the US and the Iraqi government could not have come at a worse time because a team of 50 US troops have deployed to al-Asad airbase in Anbar province around 160km (100 miles) west of the Iraqi capital Baghdad. You may remember that just two weeks ago (27/10/14) the Asad airbase was scene of a US airdrop to Iraqi troops who had been surrounded by ISIL. As such the deployment of this advance team puts US ground troops very much on the frontline of the fight against ISIL. It is also believed to be the first step in embedding US troops within Iraqi Army brigades so they can act as advisers as those units do battle with ISIL. That of course makes those US troops combat troops in all but name.
It has also been confirmed that the UK carried out its first drone strike in Iraq on Sunday. In itself this isn't particularly noteworthy because it doesn't make a huge amount of difference whether a Hellfire-type missile has been fired from a Reaper drone or Tornado jet. However the target was an ISIL mine/IED laying team just outside Baji - around 200km (130 miles) north of Baghdad - which the Iraqi Army have either re-captured or are in the process of re-capturing from ISIL amid extremely limited air-support. It was accompanied by a Tornado strike against a shipping container just outside Baghdad which is said to be "used by the terrorists to store equipment to support extortion and control of the local population." As such this seems to have been an attempt by the UK to jab US President Obama in the ribs to remind him that drone strikes against al-Baghdadi are no substitute for a coherent strategy to force ISIL out of territory they hold.
After all in the absence of a clear strategy, a main airbase from which coalition aircraft can operate from and an increasing number of military 'advisers' on the ground this operation is sadly developing a distinctly Vietnam-esque feel to it.
17:35 on 11/11/14 (UK date).
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