Over the past two days the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) have continued to make slow but steady progress in forcing the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from the city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab.
In an operation that began on Sunday (9/11/14) evening the YPG succeeded by Tuesday (11/11/14) in re-capturing five streets and several key buildings from ISIL in the south of the city. Although I don't have exact numbers it seems that heavy casualties were inflicted on ISIL during the battle and large amounts of weapons and ammunition were seized by the YPG. On Wednesday ISIL launched something of a counter-offensive on the southern front in order to dislodge the YPG from their newly gained territory. However the YPG were able to withstand this counter-attack killing at least 6 ISIL fighters during this long fight including a senior ISIL commander who has yet to be named.
In the east of Kobane ISIL launched two counter-attacks to recover the ground they had lost to the YPG on Sunday into Monday (10/11/14). The first of these counter-attacks was launched on Tuesday and lasted into the night. However the YPG were able to resist the push killing at least 6 ISIL fighters in the process.The second counter-attack which was launched on Wednesday (12/11/14) was much smaller and easily resisted with at least 5 ISIL fighters being killed.
The YPG made a much more substantial gain on Wednesday when their troops pushed out from north-east Kobane and the looped around to the south cutting through ISIL lines near the village of Helinj. That village is on the main road between Kobane and the ISIL of Raqqa which sits some 140km (84 miles) to the south-east of Kobane. As a result the YPG have now cut through ISIL's main supply route to Kobane and ISIL fighters on the strategically important Mishtenur Hill are now surrounded in much the same way that ISIL once had Kobane surrounded. Apparently when the remaining ISIL fighters are forced from Mishtenur Hill which may have happened as I write it will be renamed "Arin Mirxan Hill" in honour of a female YPG fighter who was killed in the Battle of Kobane back in early October.
ISIL have also been suffering significant losses in Iraq particularly around the city of Baiji which sits around 180km (105 miles) north or Iraq's capital Baghdad and around 30km (18 miles) north of the city of Tikrit. Following nearly a week of fighting Iraqi government troops backed by Shia militias have now forced ISIL from around 60% of the city itself. They have now set themselves a deadline of the weekend to break through ISIL positions to the north of Baiji in order to break the ISIL siege on the Baiji oil fields which has been going on since June.
The US-led coalition has continued the illusion of conducting air-strikes against ISIL having conducted just 57 strikes since last Friday (7/11/14). 23 of those strikes occured around Kobane while just 12 took place in support of the operation to liberate Baiji. The coalition did also find the time to conduct 16 strikes against ISIL oil facilities in Deir ez-Zur which is Syria around 115km (70 miles) south-east of Raqqa and Al-Haskah which is around 150km (90 miles) north-east of Raqqa and 130km (80 miles) north of Deir ez-Zur. Although I don't have specific information on these latest strikes it has been this targeting of oil facilities which have pushed the civilian casualties from coalition air-strikes up to 50 which along with the hardship they impose on local civilian populations make them very counter-productive to the operation's main goal of defeating ISIL.
Despite the defeats that are being handed to ISIL on an almost daily basis US President Barack Obama is said to be using a perceived failure of the coalition's operation as an excuse to shift the focus of the operation to overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. That of course would be completely illegal under international law and the logic behind it is flawed for two main reasons. Firstly the fact that Assad is the President of Syria has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that ISIL are massacring civilians in Iraq. Instead that is simply what ISIL do and is something they will continue to do unless stopped. In fact overthrowing Assad will probably make it easier for ISIL to operate.
Secondly the US-led coalition operation in Iraq has not failed for the simple reason that it has not yet begun. Obama has yet to draw up a coherent strategy to defeat ISIL in Iraq nor has he established a central coalition command to carry out that strategy let alone establish an airbase for that coalition to operate from. As a result the coalition has been prevented from mounting regular patrols over the frontlines of Iraq let alone provide effective close air support to the Iraqi and Kurdish troops on the ground.
One possible area where a desire not to overthrow the Syrian government may be delaying the operation in Syria is that it may be putting Arab rebel groups under the banner of both the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Islamic Front (IF) from joining the coalition. However in the form of the Kurds the coalition already has highly competent allies who are prepared to fight ISIL on the ground in Syria and win. So if the FSA and IF don't want to join the coalition that's their problem and I don't think IF should even be considered for the coalition.
On a related note over the weekend the USS Ross - US Navy destroyer - docked in Istanbul, Turkey as part of a routine deployment. On Wednesday two sailors from the ship were walking out of uniform around the city when they were attacked by more then a dozen Turkish nationalists who hooded and physically assaulted them whilst shouting slogans such as "Yankee Go Home," "Killers" and demanding that soldiers from the occupying nation should not be allowed to walk the streets. To me this is just the latest in a long line of incidents demonstrating that the US needs to be taking a far tougher line with Turkey over ISIL.
After all Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can either go into his equivalent of the mid-term elections in 2015 as the President who wrapped the US around his little finger or he can be the President whose support for ISIL brought crushing economic sanctions down on his country. It really is his choice.
17:45 on 13/11/14 (UK date).
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