As I mentioned at the time the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) yesterday launched a fresh assault on the city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab which sits just 1km (0.6 miles) from Syria's border with Turkey. This appears to have been primarily a propaganda stunt but also an effort to rescue ISIL fighters trapped there by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) who have been defending the city.
It has now become increasingly clear that this assault took place on two fronts. At the south-west entrance to Kobane ISIL dispatched a column of 3 tanks headed by 2 Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's/truck bombs) and supported by infantry. At the northern Mursitpinar border crossing that directly links Kobane to Turkey ISIL again dispatched 2 VBIED's backed by 3 suicide bombers and a small detachment of infantry fighters. The attack on the Mursitpinar border crossing was launched from an industrial site within Turkey that is owned and operated by the state-run Turkish Grain Board (TMO). As it was completely unexpected this attack killed 9 YPG fighters and 4 civilians.
In response to the attack from Turkey the YPG immediately requested that Turkey acted to bring the attack to an end. Turkey answered this request with artillery fire. Unfortunately though they appear to have completely missed any ISIL positions instead hitting the centre of Kobane where a reported 6 civilians have been killed. Turkey has also cut off power to the camps housing refugees from Kobane and is using the vast numbers of troops and security forces they have in the area to impose a lock-down to prevent Kurds from moving and communicating with the outside world. Non-Kurds are apparently still fine to do as they like. Also someone has set fire to the hundreds of vehicles dumped by refugees on the border creating a smoke-screen that completely obscures the view of Kobane from Turkey.
Despite all this the YPG did succeed in repelling the attack in quite some style. At the Mursitpinar crossing they quickly responded to the surprise attack killing many of the ISIL infantry fighters and chasing the remainder back to the TMO site in Turkey whether I gather there were few survivors. At the south-western entrance the YPG were most certainly not surprised and destroyed both of the VBIED's with anti-tank weapons before they reached YPG positions. 2 of the 3 tanks were also destroyed in this manner and again the ISIL infantry fighters were either killed or chased off. Aside from that the YPG were also able to gain control of several positions in the south-west that they'd been trying to liberate for a number of days. This suggests that the ISIL fighters in those positions simply used the assault as an excuse to flee Kobane.
Alongside the 9 YPG fighters who were died at least 86 ISIL fighters were killed on Saturday making it a particularly bloody day for the group.
Today ISIL have announced that during yesterday's assault they succeeded in capturing several female YPG fighters (technically YPJ fighters being feminine) including Gill Rosenberg - a Canadian national who recently joined up to fight alongside the Kurds. As a female Rosenberg would obviously be a high value hostage to a group most of whose members only signed up because they couldn't get a girlfriend. However Rosenberg's value to ISIL is increased because she is Jewish and received her military training in the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) although I gather Israel currently has an arrest warrant out for her on an unrelated matter.
Although I haven't spoken to Rosenberg myself I understand that this claim by ISIL is completely untrue. The dozen of so westerners who have gone to assist the Kurds have really done so to provide training and technical assistance rather then fight. After all the Kurds have never worked with an advanced air force before. Plus the YPG commanders are smart enough to realise the propaganda value to ISIL of western hostages- particularly Jews. Therefore there aren't actually any foreigners in Kobane and the last I heard Rosenberg was in a training camp on the Iraqi border around 500km (300 miles) to the east.
So it appears that having attempted to score a propaganda victory with their assault on Kobane yesterday only for it to fail miserably ISIL have simply made the Rosenberg story up in an effort to change the subject and spare their blushes.
Away from Kobane the spat between the US-led coalition and the Syrian government over which of them is ISIL's main ally has continued. Last Wednesday (26/11/14) the predominately Shia-Arab Syrian government carried out a massive series of air-strikes against the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa to demonstrate that the Sunni-Arab insurgent group most certainly isn't their ally. On Saturday (29/11/14) the US-led coalition also carried out a massive series of around 30 air-strikes on Raqqa in an effort dispel suggestions that they were closely allied with ISIL.
Also on Saturday the Syrian government declared that the coalitions air-strikes had not succeeded in weakening ISIL in any way. I think that is an overly harsh assessment but with France setting a target of less then 4 weeks to defeat a similar enemy in Mali it is hard to understand why after nearly 4 months ISIL have yet to be completely defeated.
The fact that Turkey - a supposed member of the coalition - are now allowing ISIL to launch attacks from within their territory makes the discussion about who ISIL's allies are even more heated and presents the diplomatic equivalent of a 5-alarm fire or a massive unexploded bomb. How that diplomatic challenge is responded to depends very much on the actions of US President Barack Obama because he is supposedly the leader of the nation that is leading the coalition.
Sadly at this point we're still waiting for the US to even acknowledge that the events of yesterday occurred.
Seriously over the past day I've been watching reports on CNN International which mentioned that there was fresh fighting in Kobane and that US aircraft had carried out fresh strikes to the east of the city. However they just couldn't bring themselves to report that there were even accusations that the attack had originated in Turkey.
18:10 on 30/11/14 (UK date).
Sunday, 30 November 2014
Police Body Cameras.
Throughout the three months it took to resolve the shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, US there has been lots of talk about forcing the police to wear video cameras on their uniforms to film everything they do while at work. Michael Brown's family have made it part of their campaign to make this a law and shares in Taser International who make the video cameras have soared. I however am not convinced.
Believe it or not due to my time as a traffic warden I am actually a fully trained and qualified law enforcement officer. Fair point it was only one law that I was enforcing and it wasn't a particularly important one. However the job did involve lots of wandering the streets in a semi-official uniform telling people news they didn't want to hear. Before that I used to steward at football/soccer games which involved effectively acting as a buffer between the public and law enforcement. In my time I have also been associated with activities of questionable legality and I've been arrested more times then I would care to remember.
If there's one thing I learnt from all that experience is that when it comes to the small, petty stuff justice comes more from a bit of common sense and discretion rather then a rigid enforcement of the letter of the law. It is much harder to use that discretion and common sense if every single thing you do is being filmed all the time.
A not particularly popular example given the circumstances comes from my football days. Throughout our training we were taught that our job was to politely and calmly defuse tension in order to avoid confrontation and violence. However once we actually started doing the job the first thing we were taught was basically how to subtly hit people in such a way as not to do them harm but to get your point across. This was very much less then lethal force and if you've seen a football match let alone a football crowd you would know that this is kind of expected. In fact it was often an important step in winning the respect needed to negotiate and defuse confrontations that would have led to much more serious violence. However if any of us officially admitted that was how the system worked we would expect to be sacked on the spot.
An example of how it can help the public comes from my time as a traffic warden. Without getting into tedious technical detail where I was working there were free parking bays where you could park for free but only for like a maximum of 2 hours. One day I was dealing with these bays when a guy who was either a plumber or an electrician came out and explained that he was working in a house nearby and had to keep going backwards and forwards to his van. However because it was an emergency call-out he hadn't been able to obtain the proper waiver so wanted to know if I could do him a favour.
I replied by explaining that I couldn't possibly ignore an offence but to be sure an offence had been committed I would have to carefully make note of all the vehicles in the bays and then come back in 2 hours. However if as I was doing this someone was talking to me like he was I might get confused and forget to note down a vehicle like that white van over there with a big picture of a tap on the side. He smiled, nodded and told me to get a proper job before walking off happy.
I've also benefited from this type of thing myself. What must've been 15 odd years ago now the police in London started using airport-style metal detectors at railway stations to cut down on the number of people carrying weapons like knives. One day I found myself at one of these checkpoints being forced to had over a bag to be searched knowing full well that it had a small (like 4g) amount of marijuana in it. The police officer carrying out the search immediately found the baggie of marijuana and held it in his hand while he continued to search the bag. When he'd finished he simply said; "No weapons there," put the marijuana back in my bag and let me continue on my way.
In that last example I'm pretty sure the police officer was committing a criminal offence by turning a blind eye and in the other two I was certainly committing a sackable offence. Therefore if we'd had a video camera recording our every move it would have much more likely that we would have enforced the letter of the law rather then the spirit of the law regardless of the consequences.
This strikes me as being a particular problem in Ferguson because the main complaint of racist oppression the protesters can manage is a system of financial penalties and asset seizures that mean if someone is seen by a police officer committing a crime such as driving an un-roadworthy vehicle they will not only be issued a ticket but also expected to pay the fine. In those circumstances I suspect that more video cameras will mean more tickets issued and more fines paid.
Of course one of the other main driving factors behind calls for the police to wear video cameras is that where they are used complaints against the police drop by about 90-95%. That's simply because people like those witnesses who claimed that Brown was shot in the back as he was running away learn not to make bullsh*t allegations of police brutality and racism when they know everything's been caught on camera.
13:45 on 30/11/14 (UK date).
Believe it or not due to my time as a traffic warden I am actually a fully trained and qualified law enforcement officer. Fair point it was only one law that I was enforcing and it wasn't a particularly important one. However the job did involve lots of wandering the streets in a semi-official uniform telling people news they didn't want to hear. Before that I used to steward at football/soccer games which involved effectively acting as a buffer between the public and law enforcement. In my time I have also been associated with activities of questionable legality and I've been arrested more times then I would care to remember.
If there's one thing I learnt from all that experience is that when it comes to the small, petty stuff justice comes more from a bit of common sense and discretion rather then a rigid enforcement of the letter of the law. It is much harder to use that discretion and common sense if every single thing you do is being filmed all the time.
A not particularly popular example given the circumstances comes from my football days. Throughout our training we were taught that our job was to politely and calmly defuse tension in order to avoid confrontation and violence. However once we actually started doing the job the first thing we were taught was basically how to subtly hit people in such a way as not to do them harm but to get your point across. This was very much less then lethal force and if you've seen a football match let alone a football crowd you would know that this is kind of expected. In fact it was often an important step in winning the respect needed to negotiate and defuse confrontations that would have led to much more serious violence. However if any of us officially admitted that was how the system worked we would expect to be sacked on the spot.
An example of how it can help the public comes from my time as a traffic warden. Without getting into tedious technical detail where I was working there were free parking bays where you could park for free but only for like a maximum of 2 hours. One day I was dealing with these bays when a guy who was either a plumber or an electrician came out and explained that he was working in a house nearby and had to keep going backwards and forwards to his van. However because it was an emergency call-out he hadn't been able to obtain the proper waiver so wanted to know if I could do him a favour.
I replied by explaining that I couldn't possibly ignore an offence but to be sure an offence had been committed I would have to carefully make note of all the vehicles in the bays and then come back in 2 hours. However if as I was doing this someone was talking to me like he was I might get confused and forget to note down a vehicle like that white van over there with a big picture of a tap on the side. He smiled, nodded and told me to get a proper job before walking off happy.
I've also benefited from this type of thing myself. What must've been 15 odd years ago now the police in London started using airport-style metal detectors at railway stations to cut down on the number of people carrying weapons like knives. One day I found myself at one of these checkpoints being forced to had over a bag to be searched knowing full well that it had a small (like 4g) amount of marijuana in it. The police officer carrying out the search immediately found the baggie of marijuana and held it in his hand while he continued to search the bag. When he'd finished he simply said; "No weapons there," put the marijuana back in my bag and let me continue on my way.
In that last example I'm pretty sure the police officer was committing a criminal offence by turning a blind eye and in the other two I was certainly committing a sackable offence. Therefore if we'd had a video camera recording our every move it would have much more likely that we would have enforced the letter of the law rather then the spirit of the law regardless of the consequences.
This strikes me as being a particular problem in Ferguson because the main complaint of racist oppression the protesters can manage is a system of financial penalties and asset seizures that mean if someone is seen by a police officer committing a crime such as driving an un-roadworthy vehicle they will not only be issued a ticket but also expected to pay the fine. In those circumstances I suspect that more video cameras will mean more tickets issued and more fines paid.
Of course one of the other main driving factors behind calls for the police to wear video cameras is that where they are used complaints against the police drop by about 90-95%. That's simply because people like those witnesses who claimed that Brown was shot in the back as he was running away learn not to make bullsh*t allegations of police brutality and racism when they know everything's been caught on camera.
13:45 on 30/11/14 (UK date).
Saturday, 29 November 2014
Operation Featherweight: Month 4, Week 4, Day 2.
For the last several weeks the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has been desperately trying to launch a fresh assault on the city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab which sits just 1km (0.6 miles) from Syria's border with Turkey. The reason for ISIL's urgency has been the need to relieve their fighters who are trapped in Kobane and gradually being forced from their positions by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG).
Despite air-strikes by the US-led coalition against ISIL staging areas on Monday (24/11/14) through to Wednesday (26/11/14) that fresh assault on Kobane began today on the 76th day of the battle.
At around 05:00(local)/03:00(GMT) a column of ISIL tanks backed by infantry advanced on the south-west entrance to Kobane. At the same time two Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's/truck bombs) backed by suicide bombers and infantry units attacked the northern Mursitpinar border crossing that directly links Kobane to Turkey. This was accompanied by an increase in ISIL shelling from positions several kilometres to the west of Tall Shair hill and the fighting between the YPG and ISIL fighters trapped in positions in the east and south of Kobane has continued.
Although 9 YPG fighters have been killed in these attacks at least 30 ISIL fighters have died meaning that neither attack came close to breaking through Kobane's defences allowing ISIL to seize more territory. In fact I've delayed writing this up for a few hours in the hope that it would be confirmed that the assault is over having being successfully repelled. However it now looks as though that confirmation will not come until morning as the YPG currently have more important things then paperwork to deal with at the moment.
However what cannot be ignored about today's assault is that the attack on the northern Mursitpinar border crossing originated from an industrial site owned and operated by the state-run Turkish Grain Board (TMO) which sits around 400metres (436 yards) away from the border crossing firmly on the Turkish side of the border. It was at this location that the VBIED's used in the attack were manufactured and where the infantry units that took part were assembled. As they repelled the attack the YPG chased the ISIL fighters from the border crossing to this TMO depot and engaged them at that location.
As we've all seen on countless occasions the border region close to Kobane/Surac is absolutely swamped with members of the Turkish military and the Turkish security forces who have been trying to stop the YPG receiving supplies and fresh fighters. It takes several days to construct VBIED's and assemble troops for an assault meaning that it is extremely unlikely that the Turkish government did not know that ISIL had established a staging area within their territory. In fact I'm hearing rumours from intelligence circles suggesting that not only did intelligence agencies in the US-led coalition know that ISIL were operating from within Turkey but they also knew that Turkey knew where ISIL were operating from. İzzettin Küçük - the Governor of the Turkey's Urfa border province has also confirmed that ISIL have been operating from within Turkey and today's attack originated from there.
As such it seems that Turkey has now joined the war against ISIL - on the side of ISIL. With Turkey being a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and therefore a formal ally of many of the nations in the coalition to fight ISIL Turkey's actions cannot be without consequences.
United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2170 (2014) authorises military action against ISIL and the Al Nusra Front (ANF) regardless of what nation state they are operating in. Therefore the most serious consequence of Turkey's actions would be for the coalition to now start attacking ISIL targets within Turkey including their semi-official Consulate in the Turkish capital Ankara. As the coalition has already mistakenly bombed grain storage depots by accident in this conflict if I worked for TMO I would be starting to worry about their viability of some of their assets.
Obviously the immediate suspension of Turkey's membership of NATO should also be seriously considered in response to Turkey's decision to ally itself with a terrorist group that is currently fighting other NATO members. It almost goes without saying that there will have to be a UNSC meeting to discuss this latest development and that meeting may well chose to add Turkish government officials including the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the list of individuals who are subject to economic sanctions and travel bans due to their support for ISIL.
At the very least you would expect for Turkey to be refused meetings with figures in the governments of the nations in the coalition it has just attacked and certainly for Turkey to be denied entry to any further meetings of that coalition.
However given the cowardly way that US President Barack Obama has handled this conflict in general and Turkey in particular it would be a miracle if we even got an acknowledgement of the attack let alone a public statement condemning Turkey's actions.
21:30 on 29/11/14 (UK date).
Despite air-strikes by the US-led coalition against ISIL staging areas on Monday (24/11/14) through to Wednesday (26/11/14) that fresh assault on Kobane began today on the 76th day of the battle.
At around 05:00(local)/03:00(GMT) a column of ISIL tanks backed by infantry advanced on the south-west entrance to Kobane. At the same time two Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's/truck bombs) backed by suicide bombers and infantry units attacked the northern Mursitpinar border crossing that directly links Kobane to Turkey. This was accompanied by an increase in ISIL shelling from positions several kilometres to the west of Tall Shair hill and the fighting between the YPG and ISIL fighters trapped in positions in the east and south of Kobane has continued.
Although 9 YPG fighters have been killed in these attacks at least 30 ISIL fighters have died meaning that neither attack came close to breaking through Kobane's defences allowing ISIL to seize more territory. In fact I've delayed writing this up for a few hours in the hope that it would be confirmed that the assault is over having being successfully repelled. However it now looks as though that confirmation will not come until morning as the YPG currently have more important things then paperwork to deal with at the moment.
However what cannot be ignored about today's assault is that the attack on the northern Mursitpinar border crossing originated from an industrial site owned and operated by the state-run Turkish Grain Board (TMO) which sits around 400metres (436 yards) away from the border crossing firmly on the Turkish side of the border. It was at this location that the VBIED's used in the attack were manufactured and where the infantry units that took part were assembled. As they repelled the attack the YPG chased the ISIL fighters from the border crossing to this TMO depot and engaged them at that location.
As we've all seen on countless occasions the border region close to Kobane/Surac is absolutely swamped with members of the Turkish military and the Turkish security forces who have been trying to stop the YPG receiving supplies and fresh fighters. It takes several days to construct VBIED's and assemble troops for an assault meaning that it is extremely unlikely that the Turkish government did not know that ISIL had established a staging area within their territory. In fact I'm hearing rumours from intelligence circles suggesting that not only did intelligence agencies in the US-led coalition know that ISIL were operating from within Turkey but they also knew that Turkey knew where ISIL were operating from. İzzettin Küçük - the Governor of the Turkey's Urfa border province has also confirmed that ISIL have been operating from within Turkey and today's attack originated from there.
As such it seems that Turkey has now joined the war against ISIL - on the side of ISIL. With Turkey being a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and therefore a formal ally of many of the nations in the coalition to fight ISIL Turkey's actions cannot be without consequences.
United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2170 (2014) authorises military action against ISIL and the Al Nusra Front (ANF) regardless of what nation state they are operating in. Therefore the most serious consequence of Turkey's actions would be for the coalition to now start attacking ISIL targets within Turkey including their semi-official Consulate in the Turkish capital Ankara. As the coalition has already mistakenly bombed grain storage depots by accident in this conflict if I worked for TMO I would be starting to worry about their viability of some of their assets.
Obviously the immediate suspension of Turkey's membership of NATO should also be seriously considered in response to Turkey's decision to ally itself with a terrorist group that is currently fighting other NATO members. It almost goes without saying that there will have to be a UNSC meeting to discuss this latest development and that meeting may well chose to add Turkish government officials including the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the list of individuals who are subject to economic sanctions and travel bans due to their support for ISIL.
At the very least you would expect for Turkey to be refused meetings with figures in the governments of the nations in the coalition it has just attacked and certainly for Turkey to be denied entry to any further meetings of that coalition.
However given the cowardly way that US President Barack Obama has handled this conflict in general and Turkey in particular it would be a miracle if we even got an acknowledgement of the attack let alone a public statement condemning Turkey's actions.
21:30 on 29/11/14 (UK date).
Friday, 28 November 2014
Operation Featherweight: Month 4, Week 4, Day 1.
Since my last post on the subject on Monday (24/11/14) things have been comparatively quiet in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Basically much like people in the rest of the world everyone in Syria and Iraq have been waiting to see if the US was going to slip into widespread race riots in response to the decision in Ferguson in the Micheal Brown case.
I can't help but feel though that perhaps if US President Barack Obama had turned up to the occasional intelligence briefing on Syria he may have learnt where making up stories about fictional instances of oppression in order to pursue a sectarian agenda can lead a country.
In the city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) have continued to mount patrols on all fronts to remove ISIL fighters from buildings/positions they occupy. I wouldn't go so far as to say that ISIL are no longer capable of fighting the YPG because every building is being fought over hard. However ISIL are certainly no longer able to take territory from the YPG and are instead desperately trying to hold onto the territory they do occupy without much success. Over the past three days the YPG have liberated around 15 ISIL positions, killed around 48 ISIL fighters and captured weapons and ammunition across all fronts.
The YPG have also started to mount commando-style raids against ISIL positions outside of Kobane. One such raid on Thursday (27/11/14) killed a senior ISIL commander known as Abu-Khansa along with his bodyguards in the village of Til Khazal.
On Saturday (22/11/14) and Sunday (23/11/14) it appeared as though ISIL were assembling forces just outside of Kobane in order to launch a fresh assault on the city. Although it seems to have been discouraged by the YPG themselves the US-led coalition did eventually move to eliminate the threat carrying out 10 air-strikes between Monday and Wednesday (26/11/14) which destroyed 7 ISIL fighting positions and 4 ISIL troop staging areas wiping out a large ISIL group unit and 2 smaller ground units in the process.
Although they turned up late as always these strikes were undoubtedly welcomed by the YPG. However with ISIL continuing to shell Kobane from artillery positions some 8km (4.8 miles) to the west I can't help but feel they are a poor substitute for establishing a supply corridor through Turkey that would allow the YPG to defend both Kobane and Serekanyie (Ras al-Ayn) without having to rely on coalition air-strikes which are difficult to organise and very, very expensive with Hellfire-type missiles costing around USD100,000 each.
Sadly there is still absolutely no indication that the US intends to exert any pressure whatsoever on Turkey to make this happen. This is despite Turkey announcing plans to dispatch heat-trapping blankets to Syria and Iraq to help ISIL fighters hide from coalition air-strikes which rely on infrared targeting systems. This of course hasn't stopped Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan unleashing another anti-US rant on Wednesday in which he condemned US "impertinence, recklessness and endless demands" over the suggestion that the world doesn't allow ISIL to carry out a genocide in Kobane.
On a related note on also on Wednesday Israel's internal security service the Shin Bet arrested 30 Hamas members who had been plotting a Mumbai-style terror attack against sports stadiums in Jerusalem. The attacks were planned in and the attackers trained in Turkey. Meanwhile the Palestinian Authority accused Turkey last Saturday (26/11/14) to trying to overthrow them.
On Wednesday the Syrian government launched a series of air-strikes against the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa. This is highly unusual because prior to ISIL making it their centre of operations Raqqa was of extremely limited strategic value. As a result it was the first major city that the Syrian government let fall to the Sunni-Arab insurgency. Since then the Syrian government has concentrated first on securing the capital Damascus and then slowly liberating the major cities along the west of the country such as Homs, Hama and they are currently fighting over Aleppo City.
The US has repeatedly tried to use the Syrian governments failure to fight ISIL in the north-eastern section of the country they hold to claim that ISIL are allied to the Syrian government rather then simply part of the Sunni-Arab insurgency that the US supports.
Therefore the US is utterly furious with the Syrian air-strikes against Raqqa. Firstly because they showed that the Syrian government is most certainly trying to fight ISIL but also because they showed that the years of sanctions and arms embargoes that the US has imposed on Syria in order to assist the Sunni-Arab insurgency has left the Syrian government incapable of carrying out the type of precision strikes that the US is capable. Therefore when the Syrian government carries out attacks against the insurgents it is forced to put civilian lives at risk.
Apart from furious condemnation by the US Ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Samantha Power the US also appears to have tired to punish the Syria government for its attacks on ISIL by instructing insurgents in the Free Syrian Army (FSA) grouping to launch a fresh offensive against government troops to the south of Damascus. This offensive stands absolutely no chance of over-running Damascus but is does give the Syrian government something else to think about.
It does also though serve to highlight the stupidity of the US' current approach to the fight against ISIL. Apart from this small band of positions to the south of Damascus and an ever shrinking number of pockets around Aleppo City the FSA grouping has no presence in a country which is divided between ISIL, the Al Qaeda allied Al Nusra Front (ANF) and the Syrian government. That means that it is simply impossible for the FSA grouping to be used as a ground force in the fight against ISIL and ANF.
It also means that if the Syrian government is overthrown as the US still wishes to do then the last substantial, moderate element in Syria will be removed and the entire country will be overrun by ISIL and ANF - two groups that are prescribed by the UN Security Council (UNSC) and the US-led coalition is supposed to be trying to defeat.
Finally during the Ferguson protests the US network FoxNews claimed that ISIL were trying to use the protests as a way to recruit Americans to their cause. This was widely mocked on Twitter but I was actually watching ISIL do this at the time. It is after all very much the way that ISIL operate.
Often describing jihad as their "Call of Duty" in reference to the popular video game their recruiting pitch is normally along the lines of; "Stuck in a dead-end job? Can't get a girlfriend? Sick of playing video games all day? Well join ISIL and give your life purpose by fighting oppression!" Of course once the recruits have been suckered in by the pitch they discover that the oppression doesn't exist and they're being forced into suicide squads so decide they'd much rather be back home playing computer games instead.
Therefore it has to be said that there's not a whole lot of difference between the way that ISIL recruit and the way that the Obama administration responded to the Micheal Brown shooting.
16:40 on 28/11/14 (UK date).
I can't help but feel though that perhaps if US President Barack Obama had turned up to the occasional intelligence briefing on Syria he may have learnt where making up stories about fictional instances of oppression in order to pursue a sectarian agenda can lead a country.
In the city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) have continued to mount patrols on all fronts to remove ISIL fighters from buildings/positions they occupy. I wouldn't go so far as to say that ISIL are no longer capable of fighting the YPG because every building is being fought over hard. However ISIL are certainly no longer able to take territory from the YPG and are instead desperately trying to hold onto the territory they do occupy without much success. Over the past three days the YPG have liberated around 15 ISIL positions, killed around 48 ISIL fighters and captured weapons and ammunition across all fronts.
The YPG have also started to mount commando-style raids against ISIL positions outside of Kobane. One such raid on Thursday (27/11/14) killed a senior ISIL commander known as Abu-Khansa along with his bodyguards in the village of Til Khazal.
On Saturday (22/11/14) and Sunday (23/11/14) it appeared as though ISIL were assembling forces just outside of Kobane in order to launch a fresh assault on the city. Although it seems to have been discouraged by the YPG themselves the US-led coalition did eventually move to eliminate the threat carrying out 10 air-strikes between Monday and Wednesday (26/11/14) which destroyed 7 ISIL fighting positions and 4 ISIL troop staging areas wiping out a large ISIL group unit and 2 smaller ground units in the process.
Although they turned up late as always these strikes were undoubtedly welcomed by the YPG. However with ISIL continuing to shell Kobane from artillery positions some 8km (4.8 miles) to the west I can't help but feel they are a poor substitute for establishing a supply corridor through Turkey that would allow the YPG to defend both Kobane and Serekanyie (Ras al-Ayn) without having to rely on coalition air-strikes which are difficult to organise and very, very expensive with Hellfire-type missiles costing around USD100,000 each.
Sadly there is still absolutely no indication that the US intends to exert any pressure whatsoever on Turkey to make this happen. This is despite Turkey announcing plans to dispatch heat-trapping blankets to Syria and Iraq to help ISIL fighters hide from coalition air-strikes which rely on infrared targeting systems. This of course hasn't stopped Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan unleashing another anti-US rant on Wednesday in which he condemned US "impertinence, recklessness and endless demands" over the suggestion that the world doesn't allow ISIL to carry out a genocide in Kobane.
On a related note on also on Wednesday Israel's internal security service the Shin Bet arrested 30 Hamas members who had been plotting a Mumbai-style terror attack against sports stadiums in Jerusalem. The attacks were planned in and the attackers trained in Turkey. Meanwhile the Palestinian Authority accused Turkey last Saturday (26/11/14) to trying to overthrow them.
On Wednesday the Syrian government launched a series of air-strikes against the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa. This is highly unusual because prior to ISIL making it their centre of operations Raqqa was of extremely limited strategic value. As a result it was the first major city that the Syrian government let fall to the Sunni-Arab insurgency. Since then the Syrian government has concentrated first on securing the capital Damascus and then slowly liberating the major cities along the west of the country such as Homs, Hama and they are currently fighting over Aleppo City.
The US has repeatedly tried to use the Syrian governments failure to fight ISIL in the north-eastern section of the country they hold to claim that ISIL are allied to the Syrian government rather then simply part of the Sunni-Arab insurgency that the US supports.
Therefore the US is utterly furious with the Syrian air-strikes against Raqqa. Firstly because they showed that the Syrian government is most certainly trying to fight ISIL but also because they showed that the years of sanctions and arms embargoes that the US has imposed on Syria in order to assist the Sunni-Arab insurgency has left the Syrian government incapable of carrying out the type of precision strikes that the US is capable. Therefore when the Syrian government carries out attacks against the insurgents it is forced to put civilian lives at risk.
Apart from furious condemnation by the US Ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Samantha Power the US also appears to have tired to punish the Syria government for its attacks on ISIL by instructing insurgents in the Free Syrian Army (FSA) grouping to launch a fresh offensive against government troops to the south of Damascus. This offensive stands absolutely no chance of over-running Damascus but is does give the Syrian government something else to think about.
It does also though serve to highlight the stupidity of the US' current approach to the fight against ISIL. Apart from this small band of positions to the south of Damascus and an ever shrinking number of pockets around Aleppo City the FSA grouping has no presence in a country which is divided between ISIL, the Al Qaeda allied Al Nusra Front (ANF) and the Syrian government. That means that it is simply impossible for the FSA grouping to be used as a ground force in the fight against ISIL and ANF.
It also means that if the Syrian government is overthrown as the US still wishes to do then the last substantial, moderate element in Syria will be removed and the entire country will be overrun by ISIL and ANF - two groups that are prescribed by the UN Security Council (UNSC) and the US-led coalition is supposed to be trying to defeat.
Finally during the Ferguson protests the US network FoxNews claimed that ISIL were trying to use the protests as a way to recruit Americans to their cause. This was widely mocked on Twitter but I was actually watching ISIL do this at the time. It is after all very much the way that ISIL operate.
Often describing jihad as their "Call of Duty" in reference to the popular video game their recruiting pitch is normally along the lines of; "Stuck in a dead-end job? Can't get a girlfriend? Sick of playing video games all day? Well join ISIL and give your life purpose by fighting oppression!" Of course once the recruits have been suckered in by the pitch they discover that the oppression doesn't exist and they're being forced into suicide squads so decide they'd much rather be back home playing computer games instead.
Therefore it has to be said that there's not a whole lot of difference between the way that ISIL recruit and the way that the Obama administration responded to the Micheal Brown shooting.
16:40 on 28/11/14 (UK date).
Wednesday, 26 November 2014
Felons Not Families: A Legal Position.
Last Thursday (20/11/14) US President Barack Obama unveiled a series of executive actions on immigration that he has dubbed the "Felons Not Families" policy. This has been hugely controversial over doubts whether Obama has any legal authority whatsoever to take this type of action. After all Obama himself said in 2013 that he does not have the authority to take this action because he is neither the Emperor nor the King of the US.
As always in the US the cornerstone document that determines what laws can be passed and by whom is the US Constitution. The section that deals with immigration policy is Article 1, Section 8, Clause 4 which quite clearly states that Congress has the power; "To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization .... throughout the United States." That means that Congress and only Congress can alter the law on immigration.
To understand the context of why the Constitution makes it quite clear that the President - as an executive power - cannot alter the law on immigration you have to look back to the US Declaration of Independence which is very much the parent document of the Constitution.The Declaration of Independence lays out the need to establish a political and legal system free from despotism and absolute tyranny. Amongst various examples of this type of tyranny and despotism it specifically lists that British King George III - as an executive power - "endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands."
Essentially what was going on at the time is that people who were born in America - a British colony at the time - wanted to become an independent nation. To prevent this King George III was using his executive power over immigration to prevent people who wanted America to be a Republic from living in America whilst making it easier for people who wanted America to remain as a British colony to live there. In short King George was using immigration as a way to change the demographics of America in order to make sure that it supported him politically.
As Obama's immigration action will disproportionally affect people from a Hispanic background and people from a Hispanic background overwhelmingly support Obama's Democrat Party over the opposition Republican Party it seems clear that Obama's immigration action is intended to alter the demographics of the US in order to make sure it supports him politically.
In short Obama's immigration is exactly the type of despotism and tyranny that A.1, S.8(4) of the US Constitution was specifically written to prevent.
Obviously though since the Declaration of Independence and then the US Constitution were passed the US has passed other immigration laws and other Presidents have taken executive actions some of which have been challenged in the Courts. I don't really have the access to the documents nor the time to check through all this case law to see if it is relevant. However a key legal principle is that every issue is considered on its individual merits. That means that while they provide guidance a precedent is only binding if it is exactly the same as the individual issue it is being applied to.
This is unlikely to be the case because all of the examples cited in the debate so far have involved an executive order that was taken in emergency circumstances that was later upheld by Congress. For example JFK used executive action in 1961 to protect Cuban refugees fleeing the revolution. In 1975-79 Ford and Carter both offered assistance to Vietnamese refugees fleeing the revolution. In 1987 Reagan took action to protect refugees fleeing from Nicaragua's Sandinista regime. George Bush Senior's use of executive action in 1990 was even more benign. All he did was to act to close a loophole in a law that had already been passed by Congress. Therefore he was simply saving Congress the effort of repealling a poorly written law and replacing it with a new law that essentially changed just one sentence.
In contrast Obama's proposals have been placed before Congress time and time again and as Obama keeps telling us time and time again Congress has refused to pass his proposals into law. Therefore it is quite clear that Obama is not using executive action because there is not time for Congress to act but instead using executive action to defy Congress which is a quite clear violation of the Constitution.
Therefore it seems obvious that the next step is that following the signing of the executive order which Obama - as supposed Constitutional law professor - chose to do at the close of business on Friday (21/11/14) is for an injunction to be sought and granted preventing the order being acted on at least until the Supreme Court has ruled on whether the suspension of the enforcement of a law constitutes a de facto change in the law.
The Supreme Courts task here was made a lot easier last night when Obama declared during a speech in Chicago that he views his immigration to be a change in the law. As such the Supreme Court can only really tell Obama that either he doesn't know what he is talking about or strike down his immigration actions as unlawful clearing the way for him to be impeached and removed from office.
Obviously before triggering what will be a major constitutional crisis in the US the Republican Party will need time to be very sure of what they are doing. Also with there being just two years left of Obama's term of office and a Supreme Court case taking just as long the Republicans might be tempted to avoid upsetting the election cycle with an impeachment provided Obama's immigration action can be blocked by an injunction.
On the subject of Obama's seemingly utter contempt for the rule of law we have the situation in Ferguson, Missouri, US. While we are still waiting for the riots to stop and the dust to settle it is clear that billions if not tens of billions of dollars worth of damage and property destruction has taken place. Unlike a tornado, a hurricane or some other natural disaster this destruction was entirely predictible and entirely avoidable if only senior US government officials had behaved differently.
After all Eric Holder's Justice Department must have known within hours that injuries to Darren Wilson and blood in his vehicle clearly proved that this fairy tale of an innocent black man being executed by a racist police officer simply had not happened. However Holder proceeded to open a Federal investigation and intendeds to continue that investigation long after it has been well established that it is entirely without foundation.
Therefore I think that it is only right that all those who suffered loss and damage to property as a result of Holder's rabble-rousing should be fully compensated. The Federal government should cover the cost of that compensation fund because the alternative is the affected states being forced to sue the Justice Department for damages. That would pretty much put the Obama administation in a state of all out war with the nation he is supposed to be leading.
17:05 on 26/11/14 (UK date).
As always in the US the cornerstone document that determines what laws can be passed and by whom is the US Constitution. The section that deals with immigration policy is Article 1, Section 8, Clause 4 which quite clearly states that Congress has the power; "To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization .... throughout the United States." That means that Congress and only Congress can alter the law on immigration.
To understand the context of why the Constitution makes it quite clear that the President - as an executive power - cannot alter the law on immigration you have to look back to the US Declaration of Independence which is very much the parent document of the Constitution.The Declaration of Independence lays out the need to establish a political and legal system free from despotism and absolute tyranny. Amongst various examples of this type of tyranny and despotism it specifically lists that British King George III - as an executive power - "endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands."
Essentially what was going on at the time is that people who were born in America - a British colony at the time - wanted to become an independent nation. To prevent this King George III was using his executive power over immigration to prevent people who wanted America to be a Republic from living in America whilst making it easier for people who wanted America to remain as a British colony to live there. In short King George was using immigration as a way to change the demographics of America in order to make sure that it supported him politically.
As Obama's immigration action will disproportionally affect people from a Hispanic background and people from a Hispanic background overwhelmingly support Obama's Democrat Party over the opposition Republican Party it seems clear that Obama's immigration action is intended to alter the demographics of the US in order to make sure it supports him politically.
In short Obama's immigration is exactly the type of despotism and tyranny that A.1, S.8(4) of the US Constitution was specifically written to prevent.
Obviously though since the Declaration of Independence and then the US Constitution were passed the US has passed other immigration laws and other Presidents have taken executive actions some of which have been challenged in the Courts. I don't really have the access to the documents nor the time to check through all this case law to see if it is relevant. However a key legal principle is that every issue is considered on its individual merits. That means that while they provide guidance a precedent is only binding if it is exactly the same as the individual issue it is being applied to.
This is unlikely to be the case because all of the examples cited in the debate so far have involved an executive order that was taken in emergency circumstances that was later upheld by Congress. For example JFK used executive action in 1961 to protect Cuban refugees fleeing the revolution. In 1975-79 Ford and Carter both offered assistance to Vietnamese refugees fleeing the revolution. In 1987 Reagan took action to protect refugees fleeing from Nicaragua's Sandinista regime. George Bush Senior's use of executive action in 1990 was even more benign. All he did was to act to close a loophole in a law that had already been passed by Congress. Therefore he was simply saving Congress the effort of repealling a poorly written law and replacing it with a new law that essentially changed just one sentence.
In contrast Obama's proposals have been placed before Congress time and time again and as Obama keeps telling us time and time again Congress has refused to pass his proposals into law. Therefore it is quite clear that Obama is not using executive action because there is not time for Congress to act but instead using executive action to defy Congress which is a quite clear violation of the Constitution.
Therefore it seems obvious that the next step is that following the signing of the executive order which Obama - as supposed Constitutional law professor - chose to do at the close of business on Friday (21/11/14) is for an injunction to be sought and granted preventing the order being acted on at least until the Supreme Court has ruled on whether the suspension of the enforcement of a law constitutes a de facto change in the law.
The Supreme Courts task here was made a lot easier last night when Obama declared during a speech in Chicago that he views his immigration to be a change in the law. As such the Supreme Court can only really tell Obama that either he doesn't know what he is talking about or strike down his immigration actions as unlawful clearing the way for him to be impeached and removed from office.
Obviously before triggering what will be a major constitutional crisis in the US the Republican Party will need time to be very sure of what they are doing. Also with there being just two years left of Obama's term of office and a Supreme Court case taking just as long the Republicans might be tempted to avoid upsetting the election cycle with an impeachment provided Obama's immigration action can be blocked by an injunction.
On the subject of Obama's seemingly utter contempt for the rule of law we have the situation in Ferguson, Missouri, US. While we are still waiting for the riots to stop and the dust to settle it is clear that billions if not tens of billions of dollars worth of damage and property destruction has taken place. Unlike a tornado, a hurricane or some other natural disaster this destruction was entirely predictible and entirely avoidable if only senior US government officials had behaved differently.
After all Eric Holder's Justice Department must have known within hours that injuries to Darren Wilson and blood in his vehicle clearly proved that this fairy tale of an innocent black man being executed by a racist police officer simply had not happened. However Holder proceeded to open a Federal investigation and intendeds to continue that investigation long after it has been well established that it is entirely without foundation.
Therefore I think that it is only right that all those who suffered loss and damage to property as a result of Holder's rabble-rousing should be fully compensated. The Federal government should cover the cost of that compensation fund because the alternative is the affected states being forced to sue the Justice Department for damages. That would pretty much put the Obama administation in a state of all out war with the nation he is supposed to be leading.
17:05 on 26/11/14 (UK date).
Tuesday, 25 November 2014
Justice For Dorian Johnson!
Seriously, anyone?!
Last night the Grand Jury verdict over whether to indict police officer Darren Wilson over the fatal shooting of Micheal Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, US on August 9th 2014 (9/8/14) was released. It was found that there was no criminal case to answer.
Apart from the verdict Courts in Missouri have also begun the complex task of releasing the evidence on which the Grand Jury based its decision. This is likely to be a slow process due to concerns about the safety of the witnesses who gave evidence. However from the information that has already been released a much clearer picture of the events of that day has begun to emerge.
At roughly 11:30 local time on the day in question Wilson was called to the Canfield Green apartment block close to where the fatal shooting took place to assist with a medical emergency involving a sick child. This is actually a pretty common tactic used by terrorists when they want to draw police officers into an ambush.
Whilst responding to this call Wilson heard an open call on the police radio identifying two young males who we now know to be Micheal Brown and Dorian Johnson as suspects in a robbery (theft involving the threat or use of violence) at a convenience store close to the apartment building where Wilson was responding to a call.
Having ensured that the sick infant was receiving proper medical care and that there was no evidence that crime had been committed Wilson got back into his vehicle and drove away to continue his patrol.
Whilst driving west on Canfield Drive Wilson saw Brown and Johnson walking in the middle of the street obstructing traffic which is an arrestable offence. However rather then arresting them Wilson instead politely advised them to walk on the side walk instead. Brown responded to this by saying; "F*ck what you've got to say" which represents a second arrestable offence.
It was at this point Wilson noticed that Brown was holding property (cigarillos) that had been stolen in the convenience store robbery and that both Brown and Johnson matched the descriptions of the suspects in that robbery. Wilson then called for back-up and proceeded to move to stop both Brown and Johnson on suspicion of having committed robbery.
Before Wilson could exit his vehicle Brown advanced and slammed the vehicle door shut on Wilson whilst screaming; "What the f*ck are you going to do?!" Wilson responded by telling Brown to; "Get the f*ck back" at which point Brown leaned in through the vehicle window and proceeded to start punching Wilson in the head. Wilson felt that this represented a clear threat to his life and safety.
No doubt many commentators each with their own agenda will dispute whether Wilson was genuine in this fear for his life but fortunately the Courts apply what is known as "The Reasonable Person Test" which asks people to consider what a reasonable person would think in the same circumstance.
In the US and, well, most democratic nations it is well established in the law that a person who was being repeatedly punched in the head would fear for their lives. After all a single blow to the head can kill and the case of Australian cricketer Phil Hughes certainly proves that point. By the sounds of things Hughes received a single blow to the head which killed him outright. It was only the fact that he received immediate medical resuscitation that means he is currently in intensive care in hospital. Also it is well established that a blow to the head can cause a person to lose consciousness rendering them unable to defend themselves putting their life at risk.
Having correctly identified that his life was in immediate danger Wilson then assessed his options of how to respond. After ruling out both his Mace/pepper spray and extendable (Asp) baton because they could not be used within the confines of the vehicle he drew his firearm - the only other weapon available to him. Brown responded to this by shouting; "You're too much of a p*ssy to shoot me" and grabbed at Wilson's firearm.
Legally this put Brown in possession of a lethal weapon and the possibility that the firearm would accidentally discharge represented an unacceptable risk to the wider public. During the struggle over Wilson's weapon it did indeed discharge twice grazing Brown on the hand/arm. Fortunately the bullets did not then go on to kill or injure any innocent bystanders.
Having sustained wounds to his hands/arms Brown then fled from the car. As is his duty under law as a fully uniformed police officer with full powers of arrest Wilson had no option other then to give chase on foot. The debate over the US' "Stand Your Ground" laws do not apply here because it is the fact that police officers have to give chase that allows civilians the option to run away and wait for police assistance.
After 150ft Brown turned and began to advance on Wilson. There is some dispute amongst witnesses as to whether his advance could be described as "walking" or "charging" but they all agree that he did not have his hands up and he most certainly was not surrendering. Again a reasonable person would consider this to be an immediate threat to their safety and life so Wilson opened fire again killing Brown.
This version of events is supported by the forensic evidence collected in both the Missouri state investigation and the Federal government investigation and is not challenged by the Brown family autopsy. It is also supported by a number of witnesses - both black and white - who consistently said that Brown was both aggressive and threatening towards Wilson throughout the encounter which lasted just 90 seconds. It is the safety of these witnesses that everybody is concerned about.
There were also a number of witnesses that claim to witnessed an encounter in which Brown was shot while surrendering with his hands up. There were also witnesses who claimed to have seen Brown being shot in the back as he was running away. However they all withdrew their testimony when the physical evidence demonstrated that it was impossible for them to have seen any such thing. Under the rule of law the process now due to those individuals is for them to face Grand Juries of their own to determine whether they should be charged with crimes such as perjury and attempting the pervert the course of justice.
The public response to this in Ferguson and other US cities was to run riot. At current count this has involved 89 arrests, 150 non-police involved shootings alongside widespread looting and arson in Missouri alone. As such many have suggested that there now needs to be a period of healing.
I think that healing process can only begin when rabble rousers like Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, Benjamin Crump, US Attorney General Eric Holder and, yes, even the current President of the United States Barack Obama come forward and publicly apologise for deliberately lying to the American people about the true nature of the case.
15:15 on 25/11/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 19:45 on 25/11/14 (UK date) to add;
Once again I'm back from the pub and once again I'm missing a really good soccer match. Therefore I'm worried I might fall short of the calm and sympathetic tone that the response to the Micheal Brown shooting requires.
However since I wrote the above there has been an important development in what has been a fast moving, dynamic and kinetic story.
Immediately following the announcement of the Grand Jury's verdict the Brown family and those who represent them collectively issued a statement. This ended with the phrase; "Let's not just make noise, let's make a difference." From experience I know that such as statement is dangerously close to incitement either to riot or otherwise commit criminal acts. Later video emerged showing Micheal Brown's step-father and his mother's current partner making the incitement even more explicit with the phrase; "Burn this b*tch down!"
This is important because it makes the Brown's part of a criminal conspiracy to commit, particularly, arson along with all other instances of criminal damage and murder of police officers is the big charge that will be thrown. It also makes them all individually liable under civil law for every cent of damage that is done to property in response to the verdict.
At a press conference Benjamin Crump - the Brown family lawyer - responded to these allegations by reminding everyone that these statements were given at an emotional difficult moment for the family. In a Court this would be considered a full admission of guilt and a plea of mitigation for a reduced sentence. Given the scale of what has gone on the expected sentence for such a crime would be around 25 years to life in prison or the death penalty should anyone be killed in states like Missouri along with any civil penalties. In short I'm getting the impression that Benjamin Crump is a pretty sh*t lawyer.
Although I didn't watch it I gather the rest of the Brown press conference was an equally shambolic affair. Apparently at one point a blogger asked a question that the 'community' did not like so they all rushed off stage to physically attack him in front of the assembled cameras of the world's media.
Beyond that I found Crump's accusation that Wilson had not been properly cross-examined to be particularly without foundation. Although I'm not going to go through the 90 odd pages I have before me line-by-line it is clear that whilst giving his testimony Wilson's examiner kept changing the subject seemingly at random. This is intended to confuse the witness in the hope that this confusion will make it harder to lie consistently. So while we can debate whether the prosecutor assigned to the case is particularly talented or not Wilson was rigorously cross-examined during his testimony.
Another thing that really annoyed me is that throughout the press conference everyone referred to Micheal Brown as; "The Victim." As any first year law student knows "Victim" is considered a prejudicial term because it asserts that the individual in question has been subject to an unlawful act. The correct term is "The Deceased" because the purpose of the Grand Jury was to establish if there was probable cause to suggest that the deceased had been the victim of an unlawful act.
So I think the lesson is that if you've been involved in a tragedy of this type and Benjamin Crump and Al Sharpton turn up on your doorstep offering to help it's probably a good idea just to shoot them.
Today there are said to be over 100 protests planned all across the US. I cannot overstate how important it is that these are peaceful and ideally do not happen at all. That is because although this isn't one of them there have been incidents where the US police have just murdered black men simply for being black. The Oscar Grant case is particularly burned in my memory for my online discussion board days.
Hopefully there will never be another case like that but if there is all anybody will remember is how people behaved during the Micheal Brown case.
20:35 on 25/11/14 (UK date).
Last night the Grand Jury verdict over whether to indict police officer Darren Wilson over the fatal shooting of Micheal Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, US on August 9th 2014 (9/8/14) was released. It was found that there was no criminal case to answer.
Apart from the verdict Courts in Missouri have also begun the complex task of releasing the evidence on which the Grand Jury based its decision. This is likely to be a slow process due to concerns about the safety of the witnesses who gave evidence. However from the information that has already been released a much clearer picture of the events of that day has begun to emerge.
At roughly 11:30 local time on the day in question Wilson was called to the Canfield Green apartment block close to where the fatal shooting took place to assist with a medical emergency involving a sick child. This is actually a pretty common tactic used by terrorists when they want to draw police officers into an ambush.
Whilst responding to this call Wilson heard an open call on the police radio identifying two young males who we now know to be Micheal Brown and Dorian Johnson as suspects in a robbery (theft involving the threat or use of violence) at a convenience store close to the apartment building where Wilson was responding to a call.
Having ensured that the sick infant was receiving proper medical care and that there was no evidence that crime had been committed Wilson got back into his vehicle and drove away to continue his patrol.
Whilst driving west on Canfield Drive Wilson saw Brown and Johnson walking in the middle of the street obstructing traffic which is an arrestable offence. However rather then arresting them Wilson instead politely advised them to walk on the side walk instead. Brown responded to this by saying; "F*ck what you've got to say" which represents a second arrestable offence.
It was at this point Wilson noticed that Brown was holding property (cigarillos) that had been stolen in the convenience store robbery and that both Brown and Johnson matched the descriptions of the suspects in that robbery. Wilson then called for back-up and proceeded to move to stop both Brown and Johnson on suspicion of having committed robbery.
Before Wilson could exit his vehicle Brown advanced and slammed the vehicle door shut on Wilson whilst screaming; "What the f*ck are you going to do?!" Wilson responded by telling Brown to; "Get the f*ck back" at which point Brown leaned in through the vehicle window and proceeded to start punching Wilson in the head. Wilson felt that this represented a clear threat to his life and safety.
No doubt many commentators each with their own agenda will dispute whether Wilson was genuine in this fear for his life but fortunately the Courts apply what is known as "The Reasonable Person Test" which asks people to consider what a reasonable person would think in the same circumstance.
In the US and, well, most democratic nations it is well established in the law that a person who was being repeatedly punched in the head would fear for their lives. After all a single blow to the head can kill and the case of Australian cricketer Phil Hughes certainly proves that point. By the sounds of things Hughes received a single blow to the head which killed him outright. It was only the fact that he received immediate medical resuscitation that means he is currently in intensive care in hospital. Also it is well established that a blow to the head can cause a person to lose consciousness rendering them unable to defend themselves putting their life at risk.
Having correctly identified that his life was in immediate danger Wilson then assessed his options of how to respond. After ruling out both his Mace/pepper spray and extendable (Asp) baton because they could not be used within the confines of the vehicle he drew his firearm - the only other weapon available to him. Brown responded to this by shouting; "You're too much of a p*ssy to shoot me" and grabbed at Wilson's firearm.
Legally this put Brown in possession of a lethal weapon and the possibility that the firearm would accidentally discharge represented an unacceptable risk to the wider public. During the struggle over Wilson's weapon it did indeed discharge twice grazing Brown on the hand/arm. Fortunately the bullets did not then go on to kill or injure any innocent bystanders.
Having sustained wounds to his hands/arms Brown then fled from the car. As is his duty under law as a fully uniformed police officer with full powers of arrest Wilson had no option other then to give chase on foot. The debate over the US' "Stand Your Ground" laws do not apply here because it is the fact that police officers have to give chase that allows civilians the option to run away and wait for police assistance.
After 150ft Brown turned and began to advance on Wilson. There is some dispute amongst witnesses as to whether his advance could be described as "walking" or "charging" but they all agree that he did not have his hands up and he most certainly was not surrendering. Again a reasonable person would consider this to be an immediate threat to their safety and life so Wilson opened fire again killing Brown.
This version of events is supported by the forensic evidence collected in both the Missouri state investigation and the Federal government investigation and is not challenged by the Brown family autopsy. It is also supported by a number of witnesses - both black and white - who consistently said that Brown was both aggressive and threatening towards Wilson throughout the encounter which lasted just 90 seconds. It is the safety of these witnesses that everybody is concerned about.
There were also a number of witnesses that claim to witnessed an encounter in which Brown was shot while surrendering with his hands up. There were also witnesses who claimed to have seen Brown being shot in the back as he was running away. However they all withdrew their testimony when the physical evidence demonstrated that it was impossible for them to have seen any such thing. Under the rule of law the process now due to those individuals is for them to face Grand Juries of their own to determine whether they should be charged with crimes such as perjury and attempting the pervert the course of justice.
The public response to this in Ferguson and other US cities was to run riot. At current count this has involved 89 arrests, 150 non-police involved shootings alongside widespread looting and arson in Missouri alone. As such many have suggested that there now needs to be a period of healing.
I think that healing process can only begin when rabble rousers like Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, Benjamin Crump, US Attorney General Eric Holder and, yes, even the current President of the United States Barack Obama come forward and publicly apologise for deliberately lying to the American people about the true nature of the case.
15:15 on 25/11/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 19:45 on 25/11/14 (UK date) to add;
Once again I'm back from the pub and once again I'm missing a really good soccer match. Therefore I'm worried I might fall short of the calm and sympathetic tone that the response to the Micheal Brown shooting requires.
However since I wrote the above there has been an important development in what has been a fast moving, dynamic and kinetic story.
Immediately following the announcement of the Grand Jury's verdict the Brown family and those who represent them collectively issued a statement. This ended with the phrase; "Let's not just make noise, let's make a difference." From experience I know that such as statement is dangerously close to incitement either to riot or otherwise commit criminal acts. Later video emerged showing Micheal Brown's step-father and his mother's current partner making the incitement even more explicit with the phrase; "Burn this b*tch down!"
This is important because it makes the Brown's part of a criminal conspiracy to commit, particularly, arson along with all other instances of criminal damage and murder of police officers is the big charge that will be thrown. It also makes them all individually liable under civil law for every cent of damage that is done to property in response to the verdict.
At a press conference Benjamin Crump - the Brown family lawyer - responded to these allegations by reminding everyone that these statements were given at an emotional difficult moment for the family. In a Court this would be considered a full admission of guilt and a plea of mitigation for a reduced sentence. Given the scale of what has gone on the expected sentence for such a crime would be around 25 years to life in prison or the death penalty should anyone be killed in states like Missouri along with any civil penalties. In short I'm getting the impression that Benjamin Crump is a pretty sh*t lawyer.
Although I didn't watch it I gather the rest of the Brown press conference was an equally shambolic affair. Apparently at one point a blogger asked a question that the 'community' did not like so they all rushed off stage to physically attack him in front of the assembled cameras of the world's media.
Beyond that I found Crump's accusation that Wilson had not been properly cross-examined to be particularly without foundation. Although I'm not going to go through the 90 odd pages I have before me line-by-line it is clear that whilst giving his testimony Wilson's examiner kept changing the subject seemingly at random. This is intended to confuse the witness in the hope that this confusion will make it harder to lie consistently. So while we can debate whether the prosecutor assigned to the case is particularly talented or not Wilson was rigorously cross-examined during his testimony.
Another thing that really annoyed me is that throughout the press conference everyone referred to Micheal Brown as; "The Victim." As any first year law student knows "Victim" is considered a prejudicial term because it asserts that the individual in question has been subject to an unlawful act. The correct term is "The Deceased" because the purpose of the Grand Jury was to establish if there was probable cause to suggest that the deceased had been the victim of an unlawful act.
So I think the lesson is that if you've been involved in a tragedy of this type and Benjamin Crump and Al Sharpton turn up on your doorstep offering to help it's probably a good idea just to shoot them.
Today there are said to be over 100 protests planned all across the US. I cannot overstate how important it is that these are peaceful and ideally do not happen at all. That is because although this isn't one of them there have been incidents where the US police have just murdered black men simply for being black. The Oscar Grant case is particularly burned in my memory for my online discussion board days.
Hopefully there will never be another case like that but if there is all anybody will remember is how people behaved during the Micheal Brown case.
20:35 on 25/11/14 (UK date).
Monday, 24 November 2014
Operation Featherweight: Month 4, Week 3, Day 4.
You may have noticed that over the past week or so my updates on the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have become less frequent. In part this has been because I've had to deal with other issues. For example US President Barack Obama's controversial decision to take executive action on immigration will have a huge impact on the political climate in which decisions about how the US-led coalition against ISIL operates will be taken.
However it is mainly because the tempo of the operation has slowed to the point where I'm struggling to find enough to talk about in daily updates. In Iraq we are still largely waiting for the coalition to decide that it wants to go and fight ISIL. In the Battle of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab on Syria's northern border with Turkey which has dominated much of the fighting in recent weeks the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) have proved themselves to be highly effective in both stopping ISIL's attempts to capture the city and slowing their operations in general.
Between Wednesday (19/11/14) and Saturday (22/11/14) operations within Kobane were largely limited to the YPG mounting patrols on the eastern and southern fronts and occasionally engaging the enemy. During this time the YPG succeeded in re-capturing a single position from ISIL in the Sukul Hal area and 22 ISIL fighters were killed across both fronts. A single YPG fighter was killed on Saturday.
The YPG have continued to hold the villages of Helinj and Jalabiyah which sit to the south-east of Kobane itself on the main road between the city and the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa which is around 140km (84 miles) to the south-east of Kobane. The YPG's control of this road has substantially reduced ISIL's ability to bring reinforcement and supplies to the Kobane battle but it has not stopped them completely because there are other roads and ISIL continue to occupy other positions around Kobane.
On Saturday it appeared as though ISIL were assembling their forces for a fresh assault on Kobane and that was accompanied by a significant increase in the daily shelling of the city which is now coming primarily from the west of Kobane. Although this shelling is coming from beyond the villages of Minaz, Gire Iza and Mazra which sit around 5km (3 miles) away the Peshmerga artillery units that have been seconded to the YPG responded in kind. Fortunately as I write there is no evidence that a new ISIL offensive has begun or is even probable.
One thing that may have discouraged a fresh offensive by ISIL is that on Sunday (23/11/14) the YPG launched a big operation of their own in the Sukul Hal area on the eastern front. This operation was a success which saw the YPG re-gain more territory in the area whilst killing 32 ISIL fighters and seizing significant amounts of weapons and ammunition. On the southern front the YPG also attacked an ISIL patrol destroying vehicles and killing 7 ISIL fighters. Also on Sunday the YPG moved to expand their positions around Helinj and Jalabiyah to include the village of Sheikh Choban further restricting ISIL's access to Kobane. During this operation 3 ISIL fighters were killed.
Although at this stage the attrition rate clearly favours the YPG over ISIL food, ammunition and medical supplies are being used up meaning that I will not feel totally confident of a YPG victory until a regular supply corridor to Kobane can be established through Turkey. With it beginning to look as though the Battle of Kobane might be starting to come to an end attention has started to shift to the YPG's other bastion of defence against ISIL in Syria - the city of Serekaniye/Ras al-Ayn.
Serekaniye sits on Syria's northern border with Turkey around 175km (105 miles) east of Kobane and around 240km (144 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border town of Khanik. As like Kobane Serekaniye directly borders Turkey it would also provide ISIL with a smuggling route across Turkey but sitting around 160km (96 miles) north-east of Raqqa it has no value for ISIL in terms of getting supplies to and from their positions in and around Aleppo City which is around 200km (120 miles) west of Raqqa. However if it becomes increasingly clear that Kobane will not fall it is possible that ISIL will instead turn their attentions to Serekaniye in an effort to kill Kurds in revenge and partly because that is just what ISIL does.
At the moment the YPG are doing a highly effective job of keeping ISIL away from Serekaniye itself and actually seem to be pushing ISIL back further into the villages amid frequent clashes. However if ISIL turn their attention fully to Serekaniye the YPG fighters there could find themselves overwhelmed although they've always been in a stronger position there than in Kobane. This risk of course makes it even more vital that a supply corridor across Turkey is established because it can then be used to supply both Kobane and Serekaniye creating the buffer-zone that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been demanding for months.
In terms of Turkey stepping up and joining the anti-ISIL coalition either by allowing coalition aircraft to fly from Incirlik airbase, establishing a supply corridor or simply stemming the flow of ISIL recruits passing through the nation it seems that there is currently little prospect of any progress. Over the weekend US Vice-President Joe Biden visited Turkey for two days of talks with Erdogan about the fight against ISIL. Despite it emerging that 3 months ago Turkey was given permission to train (read; "spy on") Peshmerga fighters in Iraq there was no announcement or indication that Turkey will be taking any steps or allowing the coalition to take any steps to fight ISIL.
Following that weekend of meetings between the US and Turkey it has today been announced that US Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel has stepped down from the post as part of what is being described as "a mutual decision." Although I didn't see the resignation itself coming it has been clear that tension between the Department of Defence and the White House has been building ever since the anti-ISIL operation begun. As such what I suspect has happened is that Hagel, speaking on behalf of the US military, has been telling Obama and his National Security Council (NSC) what needs to be done to defeat ISIL and Obama has really not liked the answers he has been given.
Therefore Hagel has either got sick and tired of being ignored and walked away or Obama has fired him in the hope of replacing him with someone who will give the answers that Obama wants to hear. This is obviously evidence of a very serious split at the heart of the US government and one that hints at Obama being gripped by the type of megalomania that led him to recently claim that he has a telepathic link with the US voters.
Even without Turkey granting permission for the coalition to use United States Air Force (USAF) base Incirlik there are still substantial steps that the coalition could take on its own to improve its effectiveness in fighting ISIL. The main one of these would be to establish a centralised command structure with a sole overall commander and coalition members being represented by senior officers. After all even if they are being forced to operate from small bases across the region their efforts can be made more effective through a central, joined up strategy.
The coalition came close to setting up this type of command cell on November 12th (12/11/14) when the US hosted a 10 day planning conference at MacDill USAF base in Florida, US. It was during this conference that the French/British plan to use close air-support to allow the Peshmerga to liberate the town of Kharbaroot was put into action last week. Sadly that conference came to an end of Friday (21/11/14) and presumably all the coalition nations are back to randomly doing their own thing.
17:55 on 24/11/14 (UK date).
Edited around 20:10 on 24/11/14 (UK date) to add;
Within Iraqi itself the Iraqi Army backed by Shia militias have continued to build on their success in liberating the towns of Saadiya and Jalula in Diyla province which were re-taken at the same time the Peshmerga liberated Kharbaroot. Over the weekend they have pushed out further to clear ISIL fighters from the surrounding areas. As Diyla is not of major significance to ISIL and its forces there are light this operation has primarily been undertaken because it needs to be done and it represents a relatively soft target for the Iraqi Army.
However the operation took place as talks in Vienna aimed at ending Iran's civilian nuclear program were reaching a climax and Diyla province borders Iran. This has led to some people to speculate on the fact that Obama seems to be delaying fighting ISIL because he continues to view them not as an enemy but as an ally helping to exert pressure on Iran. This is of course extremely dangerous behaviour that further underlines the fact of how little Obama understands middle-eastern politics. After all of the 6 nations negotiating with Iran the US appears to be the only one seeking a concrete agreement on what even Israel concedes is an existential issue.
Despite their gains in Diyla province the Iraqi Army suffered a set-back in the city of Ramadi which sits 100km (60 miles) to the west of the Iraqi capital Baghdad in Anbar province. You may remember that at the end of September the Iraqi Army was poised to liberate Ramadi which was around 90% held by ISIL only for coalition air-support to disappear as the US decided to bomb targets in Syria instead. On Friday ISIL launched an operation which succeeded in taking control of one of the remaining districts that had been under government control giving them possession of around 95% of Ramadi.
In response to ISIL even greater control over Ramadi the Iraqi government has pledged that more heavy weapons and air-support will be dispatched to Anbar province in order to prevent it falling fully under ISIL control. The last part of that pledge seemed to be a direct reference to the fact that despite the limited air-strikes they are carrying out and all the money they are spending the US-led coalition is still very far away from providing the required level of support to those who are fighting ISIL on the ground.
20:45 on 24/11/14 (UK date).
However it is mainly because the tempo of the operation has slowed to the point where I'm struggling to find enough to talk about in daily updates. In Iraq we are still largely waiting for the coalition to decide that it wants to go and fight ISIL. In the Battle of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab on Syria's northern border with Turkey which has dominated much of the fighting in recent weeks the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) have proved themselves to be highly effective in both stopping ISIL's attempts to capture the city and slowing their operations in general.
Between Wednesday (19/11/14) and Saturday (22/11/14) operations within Kobane were largely limited to the YPG mounting patrols on the eastern and southern fronts and occasionally engaging the enemy. During this time the YPG succeeded in re-capturing a single position from ISIL in the Sukul Hal area and 22 ISIL fighters were killed across both fronts. A single YPG fighter was killed on Saturday.
The YPG have continued to hold the villages of Helinj and Jalabiyah which sit to the south-east of Kobane itself on the main road between the city and the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa which is around 140km (84 miles) to the south-east of Kobane. The YPG's control of this road has substantially reduced ISIL's ability to bring reinforcement and supplies to the Kobane battle but it has not stopped them completely because there are other roads and ISIL continue to occupy other positions around Kobane.
On Saturday it appeared as though ISIL were assembling their forces for a fresh assault on Kobane and that was accompanied by a significant increase in the daily shelling of the city which is now coming primarily from the west of Kobane. Although this shelling is coming from beyond the villages of Minaz, Gire Iza and Mazra which sit around 5km (3 miles) away the Peshmerga artillery units that have been seconded to the YPG responded in kind. Fortunately as I write there is no evidence that a new ISIL offensive has begun or is even probable.
One thing that may have discouraged a fresh offensive by ISIL is that on Sunday (23/11/14) the YPG launched a big operation of their own in the Sukul Hal area on the eastern front. This operation was a success which saw the YPG re-gain more territory in the area whilst killing 32 ISIL fighters and seizing significant amounts of weapons and ammunition. On the southern front the YPG also attacked an ISIL patrol destroying vehicles and killing 7 ISIL fighters. Also on Sunday the YPG moved to expand their positions around Helinj and Jalabiyah to include the village of Sheikh Choban further restricting ISIL's access to Kobane. During this operation 3 ISIL fighters were killed.
Although at this stage the attrition rate clearly favours the YPG over ISIL food, ammunition and medical supplies are being used up meaning that I will not feel totally confident of a YPG victory until a regular supply corridor to Kobane can be established through Turkey. With it beginning to look as though the Battle of Kobane might be starting to come to an end attention has started to shift to the YPG's other bastion of defence against ISIL in Syria - the city of Serekaniye/Ras al-Ayn.
Serekaniye sits on Syria's northern border with Turkey around 175km (105 miles) east of Kobane and around 240km (144 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border town of Khanik. As like Kobane Serekaniye directly borders Turkey it would also provide ISIL with a smuggling route across Turkey but sitting around 160km (96 miles) north-east of Raqqa it has no value for ISIL in terms of getting supplies to and from their positions in and around Aleppo City which is around 200km (120 miles) west of Raqqa. However if it becomes increasingly clear that Kobane will not fall it is possible that ISIL will instead turn their attentions to Serekaniye in an effort to kill Kurds in revenge and partly because that is just what ISIL does.
At the moment the YPG are doing a highly effective job of keeping ISIL away from Serekaniye itself and actually seem to be pushing ISIL back further into the villages amid frequent clashes. However if ISIL turn their attention fully to Serekaniye the YPG fighters there could find themselves overwhelmed although they've always been in a stronger position there than in Kobane. This risk of course makes it even more vital that a supply corridor across Turkey is established because it can then be used to supply both Kobane and Serekaniye creating the buffer-zone that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been demanding for months.
In terms of Turkey stepping up and joining the anti-ISIL coalition either by allowing coalition aircraft to fly from Incirlik airbase, establishing a supply corridor or simply stemming the flow of ISIL recruits passing through the nation it seems that there is currently little prospect of any progress. Over the weekend US Vice-President Joe Biden visited Turkey for two days of talks with Erdogan about the fight against ISIL. Despite it emerging that 3 months ago Turkey was given permission to train (read; "spy on") Peshmerga fighters in Iraq there was no announcement or indication that Turkey will be taking any steps or allowing the coalition to take any steps to fight ISIL.
Following that weekend of meetings between the US and Turkey it has today been announced that US Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel has stepped down from the post as part of what is being described as "a mutual decision." Although I didn't see the resignation itself coming it has been clear that tension between the Department of Defence and the White House has been building ever since the anti-ISIL operation begun. As such what I suspect has happened is that Hagel, speaking on behalf of the US military, has been telling Obama and his National Security Council (NSC) what needs to be done to defeat ISIL and Obama has really not liked the answers he has been given.
Therefore Hagel has either got sick and tired of being ignored and walked away or Obama has fired him in the hope of replacing him with someone who will give the answers that Obama wants to hear. This is obviously evidence of a very serious split at the heart of the US government and one that hints at Obama being gripped by the type of megalomania that led him to recently claim that he has a telepathic link with the US voters.
Even without Turkey granting permission for the coalition to use United States Air Force (USAF) base Incirlik there are still substantial steps that the coalition could take on its own to improve its effectiveness in fighting ISIL. The main one of these would be to establish a centralised command structure with a sole overall commander and coalition members being represented by senior officers. After all even if they are being forced to operate from small bases across the region their efforts can be made more effective through a central, joined up strategy.
The coalition came close to setting up this type of command cell on November 12th (12/11/14) when the US hosted a 10 day planning conference at MacDill USAF base in Florida, US. It was during this conference that the French/British plan to use close air-support to allow the Peshmerga to liberate the town of Kharbaroot was put into action last week. Sadly that conference came to an end of Friday (21/11/14) and presumably all the coalition nations are back to randomly doing their own thing.
17:55 on 24/11/14 (UK date).
Edited around 20:10 on 24/11/14 (UK date) to add;
Within Iraqi itself the Iraqi Army backed by Shia militias have continued to build on their success in liberating the towns of Saadiya and Jalula in Diyla province which were re-taken at the same time the Peshmerga liberated Kharbaroot. Over the weekend they have pushed out further to clear ISIL fighters from the surrounding areas. As Diyla is not of major significance to ISIL and its forces there are light this operation has primarily been undertaken because it needs to be done and it represents a relatively soft target for the Iraqi Army.
However the operation took place as talks in Vienna aimed at ending Iran's civilian nuclear program were reaching a climax and Diyla province borders Iran. This has led to some people to speculate on the fact that Obama seems to be delaying fighting ISIL because he continues to view them not as an enemy but as an ally helping to exert pressure on Iran. This is of course extremely dangerous behaviour that further underlines the fact of how little Obama understands middle-eastern politics. After all of the 6 nations negotiating with Iran the US appears to be the only one seeking a concrete agreement on what even Israel concedes is an existential issue.
Despite their gains in Diyla province the Iraqi Army suffered a set-back in the city of Ramadi which sits 100km (60 miles) to the west of the Iraqi capital Baghdad in Anbar province. You may remember that at the end of September the Iraqi Army was poised to liberate Ramadi which was around 90% held by ISIL only for coalition air-support to disappear as the US decided to bomb targets in Syria instead. On Friday ISIL launched an operation which succeeded in taking control of one of the remaining districts that had been under government control giving them possession of around 95% of Ramadi.
In response to ISIL even greater control over Ramadi the Iraqi government has pledged that more heavy weapons and air-support will be dispatched to Anbar province in order to prevent it falling fully under ISIL control. The last part of that pledge seemed to be a direct reference to the fact that despite the limited air-strikes they are carrying out and all the money they are spending the US-led coalition is still very far away from providing the required level of support to those who are fighting ISIL on the ground.
20:45 on 24/11/14 (UK date).
Sunday, 23 November 2014
I Will Not Argue On Twitter.
I Will Not Argue On Twitter.
I Will Not Argue On Twitter.
Seriously one of the main reasons I gave up online political discussion boards is that I found I kept having to go back and clarify what was going on. Twitter rows are even more chaotic.
Last night on Twitter I read a report of a rumour that the Israeli government were planning to introduce a bill that would strip the associates (friends, family etc) of Palestinian terrorists of permits to live in Israel - particularly east Jerusalem - along with other social welfare benefits. I should point out that this rumour might not be true and we certainly don't have an exact text of the proposal to discuss. Plus if such a bill is introduced it will be subject to extensive debate within the Israeli Parliament which may even vote to reject it rather then making it law. However I did comment that it sounded dangerously close to an example of collective punishment to me.
This brought me to the attention of a proudly Zionist Israeli who was keen to argue why it wasn't an example of collective punishment. Given the time difference between the UK and Israel though I kind of got the impression that most of the arguments were between him and the voices in his head rather then anything I had to say.
However we started discussing the differences between a punishment against an individual which would have a knock-on (vicarious) effect on their associates and a punishment that specifically targeted an individuals associates. A rather benign example would be evicting a family from their home because the head of the household has failed to pay the rent versus evicting a family from their home because the guy across the road has failed to pay his rent.
Part of the discussion is the due process that is afforded to an accused before a punishment is imposed. For example in the UK if you don't pay your rent your landlord can't simply kick you out. Instead they first have to apply to a Court for an eviction order. This leads to a Court hearing at which you can argue why you shouldn't be evicted. In extremely exceptional circumstances the Court can deny an eviction order on the grounds that it would have an undue, negative effect on an individuals associates. For example in the case of an severely disabled child who needs the special modifications that are part of a specific building.
Throughout this discussion the Zionist seemed incapable of thinking of Palestinians ("Arabs" is the correct technical term) as individual human beings rather then as part of a single, amorphous blob.
However before I had time to raise this point he moved on to accusing me of trying to hold Israel to a higher standard then any other country on earth. This is sadly something that does happen and was a particular problem during this summer's Gaza war. However it certainly was not true in this case and to prove my point I used the European Convention on Human Right (ECHR) as an example.
Drafted just two years after the formation of the State of Israel and 43 years before the formation of the European Union (EU) the ECHR grants a number of rights such as the right to life, the right to liberty and the right to family life which would make the Israelis treatment of the Palestinians extremely difficult if Israel were a signatory to the convention. The ECHR frequently comes up in terrorism cases with the case of Abu Qatada al-Filistini/Omar Mahmoud Othman being a particularly high profile case recently although the UK Courts kept that particular saga going for around 2 years after the ECHR gave permission for him to be deported.
As such it seemed quite clear that I was actually holding Israel to a far lower standard then the 47 nations that have signed the ECHR hold themselves to.
This prompted the standard Zionist response that any criticism of Israel, no matter how slight, was anti-Zionist and anti-Zionists are all anti-Semites therefore I'm a Nazi. Long after I'd ended the conversation and gone to bed this person apparently reported me to Twitter for trolling which is interesting because I was sitting there minding my own business when he approached me.
Anyway I think the point is that this is what Israelis living in Kibbutz's on the Gaza border have to put up with on a daily basis. It would really help if Hamas wasn't constantly firing rockets at them.
12:40 on 23/11/14 (UK date).
I Will Not Argue On Twitter.
Seriously one of the main reasons I gave up online political discussion boards is that I found I kept having to go back and clarify what was going on. Twitter rows are even more chaotic.
Last night on Twitter I read a report of a rumour that the Israeli government were planning to introduce a bill that would strip the associates (friends, family etc) of Palestinian terrorists of permits to live in Israel - particularly east Jerusalem - along with other social welfare benefits. I should point out that this rumour might not be true and we certainly don't have an exact text of the proposal to discuss. Plus if such a bill is introduced it will be subject to extensive debate within the Israeli Parliament which may even vote to reject it rather then making it law. However I did comment that it sounded dangerously close to an example of collective punishment to me.
This brought me to the attention of a proudly Zionist Israeli who was keen to argue why it wasn't an example of collective punishment. Given the time difference between the UK and Israel though I kind of got the impression that most of the arguments were between him and the voices in his head rather then anything I had to say.
However we started discussing the differences between a punishment against an individual which would have a knock-on (vicarious) effect on their associates and a punishment that specifically targeted an individuals associates. A rather benign example would be evicting a family from their home because the head of the household has failed to pay the rent versus evicting a family from their home because the guy across the road has failed to pay his rent.
Part of the discussion is the due process that is afforded to an accused before a punishment is imposed. For example in the UK if you don't pay your rent your landlord can't simply kick you out. Instead they first have to apply to a Court for an eviction order. This leads to a Court hearing at which you can argue why you shouldn't be evicted. In extremely exceptional circumstances the Court can deny an eviction order on the grounds that it would have an undue, negative effect on an individuals associates. For example in the case of an severely disabled child who needs the special modifications that are part of a specific building.
Throughout this discussion the Zionist seemed incapable of thinking of Palestinians ("Arabs" is the correct technical term) as individual human beings rather then as part of a single, amorphous blob.
However before I had time to raise this point he moved on to accusing me of trying to hold Israel to a higher standard then any other country on earth. This is sadly something that does happen and was a particular problem during this summer's Gaza war. However it certainly was not true in this case and to prove my point I used the European Convention on Human Right (ECHR) as an example.
Drafted just two years after the formation of the State of Israel and 43 years before the formation of the European Union (EU) the ECHR grants a number of rights such as the right to life, the right to liberty and the right to family life which would make the Israelis treatment of the Palestinians extremely difficult if Israel were a signatory to the convention. The ECHR frequently comes up in terrorism cases with the case of Abu Qatada al-Filistini/Omar Mahmoud Othman being a particularly high profile case recently although the UK Courts kept that particular saga going for around 2 years after the ECHR gave permission for him to be deported.
As such it seemed quite clear that I was actually holding Israel to a far lower standard then the 47 nations that have signed the ECHR hold themselves to.
This prompted the standard Zionist response that any criticism of Israel, no matter how slight, was anti-Zionist and anti-Zionists are all anti-Semites therefore I'm a Nazi. Long after I'd ended the conversation and gone to bed this person apparently reported me to Twitter for trolling which is interesting because I was sitting there minding my own business when he approached me.
Anyway I think the point is that this is what Israelis living in Kibbutz's on the Gaza border have to put up with on a daily basis. It would really help if Hamas wasn't constantly firing rockets at them.
12:40 on 23/11/14 (UK date).
Friday, 21 November 2014
All Hail the Cartel!
Last night US President Barack Obama landed the first big blow in what looks likely to be two years of intense political confrontation and gridlock between the Democrat President and the Republican controlled Congress. To launch this latest round of the infamous "Culture Wars" Obama decided to use the issue of immigration because there are undeniable problems with the US immigration system and helpfully I've got a real-life case study to help prove my point.
On Tuesday I had dinner with my mother who has stayed friends with the mother of a boy I went to school with. Being one of the school's success stories that guy has gone on to achieve a PHD in nuclear physics which I think we all agree makes him a highly qualified professional. This UK citizen has also fallen in love with an equally well qualified American woman and the two plan to marry. However finding a country to live in after they get married is proving to be a major headache due to immigration controls.
If the woman wants to migrate to live in the UK despite the fact she will be migrating from a richer country my school friend will first have to get a permanent job earning around USD25,000 a year to prove that he can support them both. As there are always more jobs for nuclear physicists then there are nuclear physicists this isn't much of a problem. However in that field employers tend to want a long commitment of around 5-10 years. Therefore it can be a problem finding a position that is the right fit with lots of getting by in temporary, minimum wage jobs while you wait.
Despite being married to a US citizen if my school friend wanted to live in America he would not only have to find a job in the US but find also an employer who is also prepared to take on the risk of sponsoring him to live in the US. This is a problem because the US government only approves a fixed quota of these sponsorships every year and they are handed out on a first come, first served basis. That means that even if after interviewing every single US citizen and finding none of them qualified a US employer still couldn't offer my school friend a job as the only qualified candidate because that year's quota had already been used up to allow immigrants to fill less highly specialised jobs that could probably have gone to an American.
These problems don't just affect people that I went to school with and for years they have been starving the US economy of highly skilled immigrants who are often the only people on the planet who can contribute to the science and technology sectors including in the fields of computing, engineering, the energy and defence. So severe are the problems with immigration controls that they are threatening the US' status as a world leader in these sectors. It is this element of the immigration system that business leaders have been demanding is reformed and the element the Republican Party have been trying to reform throughout Obama's Presidency only to be blocked by the Democrats.
Sadly the actions announced by Obama last night only pay lip-service to these problems with the proposed solutions only taking up half a page. In this area Obama is going to make it easier for employees of large multi-nationals to temporarily switch between say the London office and the New York office, make it easier for those on temporary work permits to transfer between jobs and make it easier for foreign graduates of US universities to obtain work permits. None of these actions will help my school friend while the plans to make it easier to transfer temporary work permits seems to open the door to a fraud where an immigrant fakes qualifications to obtain a work permit in the highly skilled sector only be sacked before going on to work in the low skilled sector. The plan to make it easier for college graduates to obtain work permits sounds dangerously close to the DREAM Act only by a different name.
The main focus of Obama's actions have instead been on granting amnesty to poor, non-skilled illegal immigrants from South America because with 5 million+ people affected that is clearly where the votes are. Obama's plan has two main element; The first is to end the deportation of children (under the age of 18). The second is to delay the deportation of adult illegal immigrants who have children for three years while ending deportation of illegal immigrants who have given birth in the US - the so-called "Anchor Babies" - entirely. Rather then being deported those illegal immigrants will instead be granted Social Security numbers which allow them to vote in US elections and work in low skilled jobs which will drive down wages for all Americans.
Apart from driving down the living standards of most poor and middle income Americans and representing gerrymandering on a truly epic scale the main problem with this that the most urgent crisis in the US immigration system has been the vast number of unaccompanied, illegal child immigrants who have been overwhelming the US' Mexican border states. Obama himself admits that this is a very real humanitarian crisis.
It is a humanitarian crisis that has been created by human trafficking cartels in South American nations such as Honduras telling parents that for a huge fee of around USD20,000 they can take their children away from all the violence because once they arrive in the US they won't be deported and their parents can go and live with them later.
As human traffickers tend not to be very nice people a large number of the children they smuggle to the US will either die or be seriously injured on the journey. If their parents can't settle the bill in time they are also often sold off mid-way through the journey to work as child labour or as sex slaves. If they do make it into the US the border states then have a choice between locking them up in large camps where disease, physical and sexual violence are rife or dumping them out on the street where they are again at risk of being used by the cartels as child slaves or being sexually exploited.
By taking executive action to stop illegal child immigrants and their parents from being deported US President Obama is formalising the cartels sales pitch and giving his full endorsement to their activities. After all few child trafficking transactions come with a contract that explains in the small print that the parents only have three years to produce an anchor baby to stay permanently in the US.
12:25 on 21/11/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 15:00 on 21/11/14 (UK date).
Perversely Obama is trying to sell this deeply inhumane plan as caring President standing up for the poor and the oppressed. The hope seems to be that American voter's heart strings will be so tugged by heartwarming tales of children who came to the country as children who have graduate college with the help of their illegal immigrant parents that they'll be blinded to the horrific realities of what is actually being done. Helpfully this reminds me of the case study of the UK Green Party who recently took control of their first local council in Brighton, UK where I used to live.
Although they are primarily an environmental party that demonstrate the old Left v Right split is seriously outdated Green Party members are largely the sort of lefty, liberal types who like to fall in love with the romance of a story of a poor immigrant battling against adversity to build a new life for themselves in rich nation. However if you've seen films like "Brighton Rock" or "Mona Lisa" you would know that like many party towns Brighton society has a really dark underside to it. So after taking control of the council and local policing the Green Party were immediately forced to deal with human trafficking gangs and other gangsters. Faced with the brutal reality of what is often the true story of illegal immigrants the Green Party were so overwhelmed with shock and disgust they fell to bits and made a huge mess all over the city.
Obviously though Obama feels some level of guilt at his support for serious criminal activity so has decided to make a point of being seen to be tough on the South American cartels by promising to deport far more convicted felons as part of a policy he has dubbed "Felons not Families." Far from being tough on these cartels Obama's plan is actually likely to make their lives easier and in the process further increase the number of South Americans trying to enter the US.
While people who have been on the receiving end of its foreign policy will disagree the US is probably one of the best places on earth to live - they even have universal health care these days. This represents a significant pull factor which encourages migrants to want to travel to the US. However for South American migrants in particular there is also a significant push factor meaning that they simply want to leave their own country because it is a complete disaster area. Honduras for example is considered, excluding active war zones, the most dangerous country on earth and neighbours such as Guatemala and El Salvador aren't much better.
Many of South America's problems date back to the Cold War. During this time the US and the Soviets would frequently play out wars by proxy. Rather like they're currently doing in Ukraine at the moment this would involve the US backing fascist rebels to overthrow a Communist government that was friendly with the Soviets and vice versa. The CIA's operations were known as "The School of the Americas." One particularly nasty incident occurred in Nicaragua during the early 1980's when the US government of President Reagan discovered that Nicaraguan Sandinista government was giving support to Communist rebels in El Salvador. Reagan responded to this by giving the CIA permission to help another group called the Contras to start selling cocaine in the US on the black market. The Contras who were based in Honduras and Costa Rica used the proceeds of these drug sales to buy weapons to overthrow the Sandinista government. This program was eventually expanded to allow the Contras to sell weapons to Iran causing a lot of trouble that Oliver North still can't recollect.
It was Reagan's decision to allow the Contras to fund themselves through cocaine sales that really gave birth to powerful drug cartels across South America further increasing the damage across the entire sub-continent because although the Cold War's ended the drug wars are still in full swing. In something of terrible "Doh!" moment the Obama White House has actually been trying to use Reagan's Contra program as an example of what a wonderful success executive action on immigration can be.
Obama's immigration action will effectively legalise the cartel's human trafficking operations massively increasing the demand for their services. This in turn will provide the cartels with yet another high value revenue stream seemingly guaranteeing that they will forever be bigger, stronger and better funded then most South American governments. This will make these nations even more unstable and even more violent providing an ever bigger push factor for migrants wanting to get out at any cost. By deporting more and more felons and gang members back to South America Obama will also be providing the cartels with even more foot soldiers. After all two on the biggest gangs/cartels in El Salvador are the 18th Street Gang and the 38th Street Gang. The streets they are named after are in Los Angeles, USA where they were formed by people granted amnesty by President Reagan.
So Obama's immigration action will not fix America's broken immigration system and it is about as far away from a humanitarian action as it is possible to get. Even putting aside questions over whether Obama has the legal authority to bypass Congress through executive action I'm pretty sure this particular executive action violates several important federal laws. Therefore it seems to me that the Republicans have no choice other then to block this plan through the Courts and if need be by impeaching Obama to remove him from office.
As for Obama himself I'm not sure whether he has once again simply failed to think through the consequences of his actions or whether he's calculated that there's a political advantage for his Democrat Party and beyond that he simply does not care.
16:10 on 21/11/14 (UK date).
On Tuesday I had dinner with my mother who has stayed friends with the mother of a boy I went to school with. Being one of the school's success stories that guy has gone on to achieve a PHD in nuclear physics which I think we all agree makes him a highly qualified professional. This UK citizen has also fallen in love with an equally well qualified American woman and the two plan to marry. However finding a country to live in after they get married is proving to be a major headache due to immigration controls.
If the woman wants to migrate to live in the UK despite the fact she will be migrating from a richer country my school friend will first have to get a permanent job earning around USD25,000 a year to prove that he can support them both. As there are always more jobs for nuclear physicists then there are nuclear physicists this isn't much of a problem. However in that field employers tend to want a long commitment of around 5-10 years. Therefore it can be a problem finding a position that is the right fit with lots of getting by in temporary, minimum wage jobs while you wait.
Despite being married to a US citizen if my school friend wanted to live in America he would not only have to find a job in the US but find also an employer who is also prepared to take on the risk of sponsoring him to live in the US. This is a problem because the US government only approves a fixed quota of these sponsorships every year and they are handed out on a first come, first served basis. That means that even if after interviewing every single US citizen and finding none of them qualified a US employer still couldn't offer my school friend a job as the only qualified candidate because that year's quota had already been used up to allow immigrants to fill less highly specialised jobs that could probably have gone to an American.
These problems don't just affect people that I went to school with and for years they have been starving the US economy of highly skilled immigrants who are often the only people on the planet who can contribute to the science and technology sectors including in the fields of computing, engineering, the energy and defence. So severe are the problems with immigration controls that they are threatening the US' status as a world leader in these sectors. It is this element of the immigration system that business leaders have been demanding is reformed and the element the Republican Party have been trying to reform throughout Obama's Presidency only to be blocked by the Democrats.
Sadly the actions announced by Obama last night only pay lip-service to these problems with the proposed solutions only taking up half a page. In this area Obama is going to make it easier for employees of large multi-nationals to temporarily switch between say the London office and the New York office, make it easier for those on temporary work permits to transfer between jobs and make it easier for foreign graduates of US universities to obtain work permits. None of these actions will help my school friend while the plans to make it easier to transfer temporary work permits seems to open the door to a fraud where an immigrant fakes qualifications to obtain a work permit in the highly skilled sector only be sacked before going on to work in the low skilled sector. The plan to make it easier for college graduates to obtain work permits sounds dangerously close to the DREAM Act only by a different name.
The main focus of Obama's actions have instead been on granting amnesty to poor, non-skilled illegal immigrants from South America because with 5 million+ people affected that is clearly where the votes are. Obama's plan has two main element; The first is to end the deportation of children (under the age of 18). The second is to delay the deportation of adult illegal immigrants who have children for three years while ending deportation of illegal immigrants who have given birth in the US - the so-called "Anchor Babies" - entirely. Rather then being deported those illegal immigrants will instead be granted Social Security numbers which allow them to vote in US elections and work in low skilled jobs which will drive down wages for all Americans.
Apart from driving down the living standards of most poor and middle income Americans and representing gerrymandering on a truly epic scale the main problem with this that the most urgent crisis in the US immigration system has been the vast number of unaccompanied, illegal child immigrants who have been overwhelming the US' Mexican border states. Obama himself admits that this is a very real humanitarian crisis.
It is a humanitarian crisis that has been created by human trafficking cartels in South American nations such as Honduras telling parents that for a huge fee of around USD20,000 they can take their children away from all the violence because once they arrive in the US they won't be deported and their parents can go and live with them later.
As human traffickers tend not to be very nice people a large number of the children they smuggle to the US will either die or be seriously injured on the journey. If their parents can't settle the bill in time they are also often sold off mid-way through the journey to work as child labour or as sex slaves. If they do make it into the US the border states then have a choice between locking them up in large camps where disease, physical and sexual violence are rife or dumping them out on the street where they are again at risk of being used by the cartels as child slaves or being sexually exploited.
By taking executive action to stop illegal child immigrants and their parents from being deported US President Obama is formalising the cartels sales pitch and giving his full endorsement to their activities. After all few child trafficking transactions come with a contract that explains in the small print that the parents only have three years to produce an anchor baby to stay permanently in the US.
12:25 on 21/11/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 15:00 on 21/11/14 (UK date).
Perversely Obama is trying to sell this deeply inhumane plan as caring President standing up for the poor and the oppressed. The hope seems to be that American voter's heart strings will be so tugged by heartwarming tales of children who came to the country as children who have graduate college with the help of their illegal immigrant parents that they'll be blinded to the horrific realities of what is actually being done. Helpfully this reminds me of the case study of the UK Green Party who recently took control of their first local council in Brighton, UK where I used to live.
Although they are primarily an environmental party that demonstrate the old Left v Right split is seriously outdated Green Party members are largely the sort of lefty, liberal types who like to fall in love with the romance of a story of a poor immigrant battling against adversity to build a new life for themselves in rich nation. However if you've seen films like "Brighton Rock" or "Mona Lisa" you would know that like many party towns Brighton society has a really dark underside to it. So after taking control of the council and local policing the Green Party were immediately forced to deal with human trafficking gangs and other gangsters. Faced with the brutal reality of what is often the true story of illegal immigrants the Green Party were so overwhelmed with shock and disgust they fell to bits and made a huge mess all over the city.
Obviously though Obama feels some level of guilt at his support for serious criminal activity so has decided to make a point of being seen to be tough on the South American cartels by promising to deport far more convicted felons as part of a policy he has dubbed "Felons not Families." Far from being tough on these cartels Obama's plan is actually likely to make their lives easier and in the process further increase the number of South Americans trying to enter the US.
While people who have been on the receiving end of its foreign policy will disagree the US is probably one of the best places on earth to live - they even have universal health care these days. This represents a significant pull factor which encourages migrants to want to travel to the US. However for South American migrants in particular there is also a significant push factor meaning that they simply want to leave their own country because it is a complete disaster area. Honduras for example is considered, excluding active war zones, the most dangerous country on earth and neighbours such as Guatemala and El Salvador aren't much better.
Many of South America's problems date back to the Cold War. During this time the US and the Soviets would frequently play out wars by proxy. Rather like they're currently doing in Ukraine at the moment this would involve the US backing fascist rebels to overthrow a Communist government that was friendly with the Soviets and vice versa. The CIA's operations were known as "The School of the Americas." One particularly nasty incident occurred in Nicaragua during the early 1980's when the US government of President Reagan discovered that Nicaraguan Sandinista government was giving support to Communist rebels in El Salvador. Reagan responded to this by giving the CIA permission to help another group called the Contras to start selling cocaine in the US on the black market. The Contras who were based in Honduras and Costa Rica used the proceeds of these drug sales to buy weapons to overthrow the Sandinista government. This program was eventually expanded to allow the Contras to sell weapons to Iran causing a lot of trouble that Oliver North still can't recollect.
It was Reagan's decision to allow the Contras to fund themselves through cocaine sales that really gave birth to powerful drug cartels across South America further increasing the damage across the entire sub-continent because although the Cold War's ended the drug wars are still in full swing. In something of terrible "Doh!" moment the Obama White House has actually been trying to use Reagan's Contra program as an example of what a wonderful success executive action on immigration can be.
Obama's immigration action will effectively legalise the cartel's human trafficking operations massively increasing the demand for their services. This in turn will provide the cartels with yet another high value revenue stream seemingly guaranteeing that they will forever be bigger, stronger and better funded then most South American governments. This will make these nations even more unstable and even more violent providing an ever bigger push factor for migrants wanting to get out at any cost. By deporting more and more felons and gang members back to South America Obama will also be providing the cartels with even more foot soldiers. After all two on the biggest gangs/cartels in El Salvador are the 18th Street Gang and the 38th Street Gang. The streets they are named after are in Los Angeles, USA where they were formed by people granted amnesty by President Reagan.
So Obama's immigration action will not fix America's broken immigration system and it is about as far away from a humanitarian action as it is possible to get. Even putting aside questions over whether Obama has the legal authority to bypass Congress through executive action I'm pretty sure this particular executive action violates several important federal laws. Therefore it seems to me that the Republicans have no choice other then to block this plan through the Courts and if need be by impeaching Obama to remove him from office.
As for Obama himself I'm not sure whether he has once again simply failed to think through the consequences of his actions or whether he's calculated that there's a political advantage for his Democrat Party and beyond that he simply does not care.
16:10 on 21/11/14 (UK date).
Thursday, 20 November 2014
Operation Featherweight: Month 4, Week 2, Day 7.
On Syria's northern border with Turkey the Battle of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab is now into its 67th day. Although I don't want to jinx things it seems that we might now be at the beginning of the end of the battle or at least at the end of the middle.
On the cities southern front the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) who are defending Kobane completed a fresh offensive Sunday (16/11/14) to re-take several streets and key positions held by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In the days since this YPG success ISIL have made no attempt to re-capture the territory they have lost. This has left the YPG free to mount patrols in the area which have succeeded in killing 15 ISIL fighters, capturing large quantities of weapons and ammunition and defusing a number of booby traps (Improvised Explosive Devices/IED) left by ISIL.
On the eastern front the YPG on Sunday launched an operation to re-capture the Sukul Hal district along with areas around Azadi (Freedom) Square and the adjacent municipality/governance district. Much to the YPG's surprise ISIL simply melted away from the Azadi Square area meaning that a lot of territory was captured almost without a shot being fired. Along with large quantities of weapons and ammunition ISIL also abandoned their dead meaning that the first YPG fighters in discovered 23 bodies including two senior ISIL commanders known as Abu Haris and Saiful Islam.
Again ISIL made no attempt to launch a counter-offensive so after consolidating their position the YPG on Wednesday (19/11/14) launched a new operation to liberate parts of the Sukul Hal district. This operation was successful in liberating the small areas it targeted and it seems that ISIL were only able to put up light resistance with 7 ISIL fighters being killed bringing the total killed in that area since Sunday to 12. In that same period 1 YPG fighter has been killed across all fronts.
On the western front the YPG have continued to push out beyond Kobane's walls launching operations to liberate the villages of Minaz, Gire Iza and Mazra which sit around 5km (3 miles) from Kobane itself. In these villages it is still very much a case of the YPG launching an operation to seize territory from ISIL only for ISIL to launch a counter-attack forcing the YPG to consolidate these gains. However the YPG is succeeding in taking and holding territory and 22 ISIL fighters have been killed with no loss of Kurdish life.
Due to the continuing operations to liberate the south of Kobane which are by necessity slow and steady the YPG have not yet been able to liberate Mishtenur hill which overlooks the south-east of the city. However it has been almost a week since ISIL have been able to fire on Kobane from the hill so I think it is now best thought of as a sort of no-mans land rather then an ISIL fighting position.
Key to the silencing of ISIL positions on Mishtenur hill has been the YPG operation to liberate the village of Helinj which sits on the main road between Kobane and the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa some 140km (84 miles) to the south-east. The YPG have not only succeeded in holding Helinj but they have also succeeded in expanding their position to include the near-by village of Jalabiyah. This means that the YPG have now established an effective buffer zone between ISIL forces in Kobane and ISIL forces in Raqqa.
Although the fighting is not over these gains mean that we are now in a position where we can start thinking about establishing a defensive perimeter around Kobane so ISIL can never again get close to the city and it can be used as a safe haven for civilians in the area. In order to do this the YPG will need medium to long range weapons such as heavy artillery guns and Grad/Katyusha type rocket launchers along with plenty of ammunition. That way they can then rain down fire on ISIL forces located several kilometres away in order to prevent them from assembling an attacking force to launch a fresh attempt to capture Kobane.
That makes the assertion on Tuesday (18/11/14) by Masoud Barzani, President of Iraq’s Kurdistan region that the US-led coalition is simply not doing enough to support the Kurds with heavy weapons and ammunition sadly wholly accurate and incredibly well timed.
Despite the almost complete lack of support from the coalition Iraq's Kurds have also been making significant gains against ISIL. In Diyal province which sits to the west of Iraq's capital Baghdad the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga worked alongside the Iraqi Army to liberate the towns of Saadiya and Jalula which have been under ISIL control since June. Along with the liberation of Adhaim Dam over the weekend this latest operation helps to further reduce the amount of territory under ISIL control. In Kirkuk province which sits around 50km (30 miles) south of the Iraqi Kurdish capital of Arbil the Peshmerga liberated the town of Kharbaroot. Although it is not a particularly significant town and one that shows up on few maps the liberation of Kharbaroot means that ISIL have now been pushed at least 35km (22 miles) from the city of Kirkuk which has been under siege since June.
In light of all these gains it is tempting to celebrate rather then mourn the suicide car bomb attack in Arbil which killed 5 yesterday. After all it seems the occasional car bombing is all that ISIL can manage against the Kurds these days.
Unusually for operations of this type in their effort to liberate Kharbaroot the Peshmerga were provided with substantial close air support by the US-led coalition. Led by French and British aircraft the Peshmerga's advance was proceeded by a repeated air-strikes against a defensive trench/bunker/barricade network that ISIL had built around the town. Once those defensive positions had been destroyed it was much as easier for the Peshmerga to move in and take control of the territory.
US aircraft also played a small role in the operation because as they are leading the coalition any air operation must first receive US approval. I suspect the conversations between the US and the British and French commanders who were seeking permission for that particular operation were rather interesting.
Left to their own devices the US still seems much more interested in carrying out symbolic air-strikes that are of limited military value but provide plenty of interesting political talking points. On Tuesday the US once again struck targets belonging to the mythical Khorasan Group close to the town of Haram which sits on Syria's border with Turkey some 64km (38 miles) west of Aleppo City. As I explained in my previous post on the subject the Khorasan Group only really exist as a euphemism for Iran or more generally Shia Muslims while Aleppo City provides a microcosm of the entire Syria conflict.
Therefore this strike again seems to be the US attempting to discuss with Turkey using Sunni-Arab insurgents to fight ISIL in Syria. However as Haram is generally considered ISIL held territory and its name translates as "Sinful/Forbidden" it could have been an attempt to discuss the way in which Turkey seems to view ISIL as just another Sunni-Arab insurgent group.
Turkey's response to this was to announce that it had not yet confirmed its permission to train 2000 Sunni-Arab insurgents in Turkey as the US offered over the weekend. This really highlights want an absolute mess US President Barack Obama is making of this entire operation. The logical thing for the coalition to do would be to work with the Kurds to defeat ISIL in both Iraq and Syria while leaving the conflict between the Syrian government and the other Sunni-Arab insurgent groups to its own devices. However Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is blocking this firstly because he passionately hates Kurds and secondly because he wants to use the fight against ISIL as a sneaky way to build up the Sunni-Arab insurgent groups who are fighting the predominately Shia-Arab Syrian government.
Given how obstructive he is being most people would have told Erdogan to p*ss off by now but Obama's handling of the situation has been so poor that he now seems to be in the position where he is not only giving in to every one of Erdogan's demands but he is also being forced to make concessions in order to give into Erdogan's demands.
Within Iraq's capital Baghdad ISIL suicide car bombings continue often with such attacks occurring several times a day. The overwhelming majority of these target civilians in Shia neighbourhoods. However on Sunday ISIL succeeded in attacking a United Nations (UN) convoy as it made its way from Baghdad international airport to Baghdad's "Green Zone" along what is known to many as "Route Irish." Although no UN personnel were killed in this attack it is an extremely bad sign given Obama's plan to double the number of US troops on the ground in Baghdad. After all ISIL have made it extremely clear that they intend to kill American troops and this demonstrates that they have the capability to do so. Therefore I seriously think that the US Congress will have to look very hard at blocking Obama's proposal at least until they can secure concrete support for the Kurds in return.
US President Obama will tonight address the American public during a prime time televised speech. However he will not be talking about the recent killing of Peter Kassig nor how the wider fight against ISIL is progressing. Instead Obama - a Democrat - will use it as an opportunity to fire the starting pistol on a massive confrontation with the newly Republican Congress over immigration reform.
As such I think it's becoming clearer why Obama has such an affinity for domestic abusers such as Chris Brown. After all Obama's clearly too much of a coward to stand up for himself at work so instead he picks fights in his home(land) in a pitiful effort to prove that he's a tough guy.
17:50 on 20/11/14 (UK date).
On the cities southern front the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) who are defending Kobane completed a fresh offensive Sunday (16/11/14) to re-take several streets and key positions held by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In the days since this YPG success ISIL have made no attempt to re-capture the territory they have lost. This has left the YPG free to mount patrols in the area which have succeeded in killing 15 ISIL fighters, capturing large quantities of weapons and ammunition and defusing a number of booby traps (Improvised Explosive Devices/IED) left by ISIL.
On the eastern front the YPG on Sunday launched an operation to re-capture the Sukul Hal district along with areas around Azadi (Freedom) Square and the adjacent municipality/governance district. Much to the YPG's surprise ISIL simply melted away from the Azadi Square area meaning that a lot of territory was captured almost without a shot being fired. Along with large quantities of weapons and ammunition ISIL also abandoned their dead meaning that the first YPG fighters in discovered 23 bodies including two senior ISIL commanders known as Abu Haris and Saiful Islam.
Again ISIL made no attempt to launch a counter-offensive so after consolidating their position the YPG on Wednesday (19/11/14) launched a new operation to liberate parts of the Sukul Hal district. This operation was successful in liberating the small areas it targeted and it seems that ISIL were only able to put up light resistance with 7 ISIL fighters being killed bringing the total killed in that area since Sunday to 12. In that same period 1 YPG fighter has been killed across all fronts.
On the western front the YPG have continued to push out beyond Kobane's walls launching operations to liberate the villages of Minaz, Gire Iza and Mazra which sit around 5km (3 miles) from Kobane itself. In these villages it is still very much a case of the YPG launching an operation to seize territory from ISIL only for ISIL to launch a counter-attack forcing the YPG to consolidate these gains. However the YPG is succeeding in taking and holding territory and 22 ISIL fighters have been killed with no loss of Kurdish life.
Due to the continuing operations to liberate the south of Kobane which are by necessity slow and steady the YPG have not yet been able to liberate Mishtenur hill which overlooks the south-east of the city. However it has been almost a week since ISIL have been able to fire on Kobane from the hill so I think it is now best thought of as a sort of no-mans land rather then an ISIL fighting position.
Key to the silencing of ISIL positions on Mishtenur hill has been the YPG operation to liberate the village of Helinj which sits on the main road between Kobane and the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa some 140km (84 miles) to the south-east. The YPG have not only succeeded in holding Helinj but they have also succeeded in expanding their position to include the near-by village of Jalabiyah. This means that the YPG have now established an effective buffer zone between ISIL forces in Kobane and ISIL forces in Raqqa.
Although the fighting is not over these gains mean that we are now in a position where we can start thinking about establishing a defensive perimeter around Kobane so ISIL can never again get close to the city and it can be used as a safe haven for civilians in the area. In order to do this the YPG will need medium to long range weapons such as heavy artillery guns and Grad/Katyusha type rocket launchers along with plenty of ammunition. That way they can then rain down fire on ISIL forces located several kilometres away in order to prevent them from assembling an attacking force to launch a fresh attempt to capture Kobane.
That makes the assertion on Tuesday (18/11/14) by Masoud Barzani, President of Iraq’s Kurdistan region that the US-led coalition is simply not doing enough to support the Kurds with heavy weapons and ammunition sadly wholly accurate and incredibly well timed.
Despite the almost complete lack of support from the coalition Iraq's Kurds have also been making significant gains against ISIL. In Diyal province which sits to the west of Iraq's capital Baghdad the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga worked alongside the Iraqi Army to liberate the towns of Saadiya and Jalula which have been under ISIL control since June. Along with the liberation of Adhaim Dam over the weekend this latest operation helps to further reduce the amount of territory under ISIL control. In Kirkuk province which sits around 50km (30 miles) south of the Iraqi Kurdish capital of Arbil the Peshmerga liberated the town of Kharbaroot. Although it is not a particularly significant town and one that shows up on few maps the liberation of Kharbaroot means that ISIL have now been pushed at least 35km (22 miles) from the city of Kirkuk which has been under siege since June.
In light of all these gains it is tempting to celebrate rather then mourn the suicide car bomb attack in Arbil which killed 5 yesterday. After all it seems the occasional car bombing is all that ISIL can manage against the Kurds these days.
Unusually for operations of this type in their effort to liberate Kharbaroot the Peshmerga were provided with substantial close air support by the US-led coalition. Led by French and British aircraft the Peshmerga's advance was proceeded by a repeated air-strikes against a defensive trench/bunker/barricade network that ISIL had built around the town. Once those defensive positions had been destroyed it was much as easier for the Peshmerga to move in and take control of the territory.
US aircraft also played a small role in the operation because as they are leading the coalition any air operation must first receive US approval. I suspect the conversations between the US and the British and French commanders who were seeking permission for that particular operation were rather interesting.
Left to their own devices the US still seems much more interested in carrying out symbolic air-strikes that are of limited military value but provide plenty of interesting political talking points. On Tuesday the US once again struck targets belonging to the mythical Khorasan Group close to the town of Haram which sits on Syria's border with Turkey some 64km (38 miles) west of Aleppo City. As I explained in my previous post on the subject the Khorasan Group only really exist as a euphemism for Iran or more generally Shia Muslims while Aleppo City provides a microcosm of the entire Syria conflict.
Therefore this strike again seems to be the US attempting to discuss with Turkey using Sunni-Arab insurgents to fight ISIL in Syria. However as Haram is generally considered ISIL held territory and its name translates as "Sinful/Forbidden" it could have been an attempt to discuss the way in which Turkey seems to view ISIL as just another Sunni-Arab insurgent group.
Turkey's response to this was to announce that it had not yet confirmed its permission to train 2000 Sunni-Arab insurgents in Turkey as the US offered over the weekend. This really highlights want an absolute mess US President Barack Obama is making of this entire operation. The logical thing for the coalition to do would be to work with the Kurds to defeat ISIL in both Iraq and Syria while leaving the conflict between the Syrian government and the other Sunni-Arab insurgent groups to its own devices. However Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is blocking this firstly because he passionately hates Kurds and secondly because he wants to use the fight against ISIL as a sneaky way to build up the Sunni-Arab insurgent groups who are fighting the predominately Shia-Arab Syrian government.
Given how obstructive he is being most people would have told Erdogan to p*ss off by now but Obama's handling of the situation has been so poor that he now seems to be in the position where he is not only giving in to every one of Erdogan's demands but he is also being forced to make concessions in order to give into Erdogan's demands.
Within Iraq's capital Baghdad ISIL suicide car bombings continue often with such attacks occurring several times a day. The overwhelming majority of these target civilians in Shia neighbourhoods. However on Sunday ISIL succeeded in attacking a United Nations (UN) convoy as it made its way from Baghdad international airport to Baghdad's "Green Zone" along what is known to many as "Route Irish." Although no UN personnel were killed in this attack it is an extremely bad sign given Obama's plan to double the number of US troops on the ground in Baghdad. After all ISIL have made it extremely clear that they intend to kill American troops and this demonstrates that they have the capability to do so. Therefore I seriously think that the US Congress will have to look very hard at blocking Obama's proposal at least until they can secure concrete support for the Kurds in return.
US President Obama will tonight address the American public during a prime time televised speech. However he will not be talking about the recent killing of Peter Kassig nor how the wider fight against ISIL is progressing. Instead Obama - a Democrat - will use it as an opportunity to fire the starting pistol on a massive confrontation with the newly Republican Congress over immigration reform.
As such I think it's becoming clearer why Obama has such an affinity for domestic abusers such as Chris Brown. After all Obama's clearly too much of a coward to stand up for himself at work so instead he picks fights in his home(land) in a pitiful effort to prove that he's a tough guy.
17:50 on 20/11/14 (UK date).
Tuesday, 18 November 2014
Micheal Brown Grand Jury.
On Monday (17/11/14) the US state of Missouri issued a state of emergency in preparation of the announcement of the grand jury's ruling over the shooting of Micheal Brown.
As something uniquely American the purpose of a Grand Jury is to establish whether there is probable cause to move forward with a prosecution for a serious offence such as murder. It's intended is to further protect the individual from unwarranted prosecution by a malicious government/state prosecutor. Funnily enough I happen to think this is a brilliant idea. Although they can be unsealed after the event Grand Jury's are conducted in the utmost secrecy. Therefore all the off the record rumours and gossip I've heard about this particular Grand Jury might just be a pack of lies.
However the gossip that keeps coming out are that both the autopsy conducted by the state of Missouri and the autopsy conducted by the US Federal Government on the orders of Attorney General Eric Holder found physical evidence (blood transfer and gun shot residue) that strongly indicates that after committing a robbery Micheal Brown saw a police car (SUV) pull up alongside him and his accomplice Dorian Johnson. Brown responded to this by attacking the police officer (Darren Wilson) in the vehicle. During the course of this attack Wilson's sidearm was fired and Brown was struck by a bullet. Brown then ran away and as he is required by law Wilson gave chase. Brown then turned towards Wilson who being in genuine fear for his life opened fire killing Brown.
Despite the rather wild claims of Benjamin Crump the Brown family lawyer the autopsy conducted by the family found nothing to contradict this version of events. The main eyewitness - Dorian Johnson - whose testimony has been parroted by numerous other people who claim to have been in the area distinctly lacks credibility due to the fact he was engaged in a criminal enterprise at the time.
Juries are hard to predict and do have a habit of producing often strange verdicts. However based on this evidence and the law it would be almost impossible for this Grand Jury to indict Wilson because there is certainly no chance of a successful prosecution. It is though possible that this particular Grand Jury is being delayed by one or two members who simply want to kill the white guy regardless of what the evidence says. Under those circumstances that Grand Jury would then be dismissed and a new one assembled.
However the rumour I've heard is that the Grand Jury actually decided not to indict Wilson on Friday (14/11/14). The release of this information has been delayed though in the first instance to avoid clashing with this past weekend's G20 Summit. It is being delayed further to help manage the threat posed by a mob that despite all their demands for "Due Process!" have already decided that Wilson is guilty and must hang.
Complicating matters further although there is no planning the situation in Ferguson is very similar to the situation in the Palestinian West Bank with basically petty thugs lying their a*ses off in the hope of provoking a violent uprising.
21:20 on 18/11/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 22:00 on 24/11/14 (UK date) to add;
Although delegates began leaving several hours ago in little under an hour the Vienna talks on Iran's nuclear program will officially end. Therefore the US is about the release the verdict of the Grand Jury into the shooting of Micheal Brown so the inevitable rioting can take place without causing too much disruption to international politics.
As such I think this post is worth re-reading. However I should point out that post-pub and halfway through a football match I didn't quite make one thing clear. A lot of the talk surrounding the Grand Jury is how they will be able to unseal the transcripts while protecting the witnesses by keeping their identities secret. This suggests that a lot of people who appeared on TV claiming that Brown was surrendering with his hands up whilst shot said something very, very different whilst in secret and under oath. As such they are worried about retaliations from the Ferguson community.
Also I think it is worth remembering that it was shortly after the Federal autopsy was completed that Attorney General Eric Holder handed in his resignation.
As something uniquely American the purpose of a Grand Jury is to establish whether there is probable cause to move forward with a prosecution for a serious offence such as murder. It's intended is to further protect the individual from unwarranted prosecution by a malicious government/state prosecutor. Funnily enough I happen to think this is a brilliant idea. Although they can be unsealed after the event Grand Jury's are conducted in the utmost secrecy. Therefore all the off the record rumours and gossip I've heard about this particular Grand Jury might just be a pack of lies.
However the gossip that keeps coming out are that both the autopsy conducted by the state of Missouri and the autopsy conducted by the US Federal Government on the orders of Attorney General Eric Holder found physical evidence (blood transfer and gun shot residue) that strongly indicates that after committing a robbery Micheal Brown saw a police car (SUV) pull up alongside him and his accomplice Dorian Johnson. Brown responded to this by attacking the police officer (Darren Wilson) in the vehicle. During the course of this attack Wilson's sidearm was fired and Brown was struck by a bullet. Brown then ran away and as he is required by law Wilson gave chase. Brown then turned towards Wilson who being in genuine fear for his life opened fire killing Brown.
Despite the rather wild claims of Benjamin Crump the Brown family lawyer the autopsy conducted by the family found nothing to contradict this version of events. The main eyewitness - Dorian Johnson - whose testimony has been parroted by numerous other people who claim to have been in the area distinctly lacks credibility due to the fact he was engaged in a criminal enterprise at the time.
Juries are hard to predict and do have a habit of producing often strange verdicts. However based on this evidence and the law it would be almost impossible for this Grand Jury to indict Wilson because there is certainly no chance of a successful prosecution. It is though possible that this particular Grand Jury is being delayed by one or two members who simply want to kill the white guy regardless of what the evidence says. Under those circumstances that Grand Jury would then be dismissed and a new one assembled.
However the rumour I've heard is that the Grand Jury actually decided not to indict Wilson on Friday (14/11/14). The release of this information has been delayed though in the first instance to avoid clashing with this past weekend's G20 Summit. It is being delayed further to help manage the threat posed by a mob that despite all their demands for "Due Process!" have already decided that Wilson is guilty and must hang.
Complicating matters further although there is no planning the situation in Ferguson is very similar to the situation in the Palestinian West Bank with basically petty thugs lying their a*ses off in the hope of provoking a violent uprising.
21:20 on 18/11/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 22:00 on 24/11/14 (UK date) to add;
Although delegates began leaving several hours ago in little under an hour the Vienna talks on Iran's nuclear program will officially end. Therefore the US is about the release the verdict of the Grand Jury into the shooting of Micheal Brown so the inevitable rioting can take place without causing too much disruption to international politics.
As such I think this post is worth re-reading. However I should point out that post-pub and halfway through a football match I didn't quite make one thing clear. A lot of the talk surrounding the Grand Jury is how they will be able to unseal the transcripts while protecting the witnesses by keeping their identities secret. This suggests that a lot of people who appeared on TV claiming that Brown was surrendering with his hands up whilst shot said something very, very different whilst in secret and under oath. As such they are worried about retaliations from the Ferguson community.
Also I think it is worth remembering that it was shortly after the Federal autopsy was completed that Attorney General Eric Holder handed in his resignation.
Sunday, 16 November 2014
Operation Featherweight: Month 4, Week 2, Day 3.
The Battle of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab is now in its 63rd day. Over the past several days the fighting has once again settled into an attrition phase with the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) trying to consolidate their recent gains while the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) launched wave after wave of counter attack to re-gain territory they have lost.
In the east of the city the majority of the fighting has been focused on the Azadi (Freedom) Square and the Reshad Mosque areas. Despite almost two days of near continuous fighting it seems that no territory has been lost or gained by either side although the YPG have captured quantities of weapons and ammunition from ISIL and killed at least 18 ISIL fighters including 1 senior commander. In the south of the city there have been similar clashes although these seem to have been almost completely continuous in nature making it hard to assess exact details of what has taken place. However it is becoming clear that the YPG have not lost any significant territory.
On the outskirts of Kobane the YPG have pushed out west beyond Tall Shair hill and into the villages of Minaz and Gire Iza. This increases the buffer between Kobane and ISIL forces on the western front to around 8km (4.8 miles) substantially loosening ISIL's siege of the city. To the south-east the YPG have continued to expand and then consolidate their hold on the main road between Kobane and the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa - 140km (84 miles) to the south-east - at the village of Helinj. This of course cuts ISIL's main supply line into Kobane however the YPG have not yet been able to fully re-capture Mishtenur hill which would completely trap ISIL in the south of Kobane. This of course puts the YPG fighters in Helinj in a perilous position holding out between two large groups of ISIL fighters.
Across all fronts the YPG have lost 8 fighters in the last two days. Although they have been able to capture weapons and ammunition from ISIL it has been almost two full weeks since YPG units in Kobane were fully re-supplied and the fighting has once again moved into an attrition phase. Therefore it is becoming increasingly urgent that Kobane is soon re-supplied again - ideally by road from Turkey - or all the gains that have been made in the past two weeks risk being overturned.
ISIL have also been suffering substantial set-backs in Iraq. On Friday (14/11/14) the Iraqi government announced that it had not only liberated the town of Beiji which sits around 180km (105 miles) north of Iraq's capital Baghdad but also broken the siege of the large oil refinery that sits just outside Beiji. This is certainly more truth then lie. On Wednesday (12/11/14) the Iraq Army backed by Shia militiamen had liberated around 60% of Beiji including the critical central district. Throughout Thursday they pushed directly north out of the town liberating around a further 20% of the city in the process. From Beiji's northern border the Iraqi forces then quickly moved directly to the oil refinery which is around 5km (3 miles) to the north thus breaking the ISIL siege of the refinery which has been going on since June.
As a result the Beiji refinery which produces around 25% of Iraq's oil products including gasoline is close to being back in production. However the Iraqis still need to clear ISIL from the areas in Beiji town they still hold along with the areas to the north, east and west of the refinery alongside making the whole area safe from roadside bombs and booby traps. While I appreciate the need to for good news the speed at which the Iraqis announced that Beiji had been totally liberated is unlikely to win them any friends. That's because it gives the impression that they don't quite understand the scale of the task ahead of them and that doesn't inspire confidence in them as a fighting force.
Any concerns about the Iraqis fighting abilities that the premature announcement of victory at Beiji may have caused were quickly dispelled on Saturday (15/11/14) when they also re-captured the Adhaim Dam from ISIL. Sitting around 100km (60 miles) north of Baghdad and around 115km (70 miles) south-east of Beiji the Adhaim Dam is considered Iraq's third largest behind Mosul and Haditha Dams and is primarily used for irrigation of vital farmland in the surrounding area. As with Iraq's other dams it sits in front of a large reservoir which if the dam was destroyed could be used as a tsunami-style weapon on mass destruction.
13:45 on 16/11/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 16:15 on 16/11/14 (UK date).
Despite the Iraqis and the Syrian Kurds significant gains against ISIL the US-led coalition has seemed far more interested in carrying out symbolic, showpiece bombing rather then offering support to those fighting ISIL.
On Friday the US announced that it had again carried out air-strikes against the mythical "Khorasan Group." As I explain every time they're mentioned the Khorasan Group are more of a loose assembly of highly trained, core Al-Qaeda fighters rather then an actual group. Their name which was assigned by US intelligence comes from a large province in north-eastern Iran. As such the exist more as a euphemism for Iran or more generally Shia Muslims rather then an actual enemy. Unfortunately I've not been able to find out which Syrian group the US actually bombed in the attack but as the strikes occurred in Aleppo City it seems that the location of the attack was more important then the target itself.
Located 50km (30 miles) east of Syria's western border with Turkey Aleppo City sits around 100km (60 miles) west of the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa and around 450km (270 miles) north of Syria's capital Damascus. The capital of Aleppo province Aleppo City provides something of a neat microcosm of the entire Syria conflict. The majority of the city (65-70%) is controlled by the Syrian government while a further 20-25% is controlled by the Al Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF). The remaining 5-10% of the city is in the hands of other rebel groups in either the Free Syrian Army (FSA) or the Islamic Front (IF) groupings. However recently FSA groups in the area such as the Syrian Revolutionaries Front (SRF) and Harakat Hazm have recently switched their allegiance to ANF. The area outside of Aleppo City is under ISIL control.
Ever since Hezbollah joined the fight in Syria at the request of the Syrian government back in April 2013 all the Sunni-Arab insurgent groups have slowly and steadily been losing territory to the Syrian government. This is a large part of the reason why ISIL turned tail and headed off into Iraq in late 2013. As the Syrian government has been focusing its efforts on reclaiming territory along Syria's western side Aleppo City has recently become the next city on their list and they have steadily been re-capturing it. However as the insurgent groups grip on reality has always been a bit tenuous they have decided that it is the US-led coalition's air-strikes against ISIL that is causing the Syrian government to gain ground in Aleppo City. As such the United Nations Special Envoy on Syria - Staffan de Mistura - has been proposing a freeze on the fighting in Aleppo City. Primarily this is an effort to stop the insurgent groups being defeated but it is being presented as a way to seperate the fight against ISIL from the wider conflict in Syria.
Therefore the real reason behind the attack in Aleppo was US President Obama making concessions to the Sunni-Arab insurgent groups and Turkey by indicating that he is far more interested in starting an illegal war against the Syrian government and killing as many Shias as possible rather then defeating ISIL. The US made a further concession on Saturday when it announced that it is going to pay for 2000 fighters from Sunni-Arab insurgent groups to be trained in Turkey. As both the SRF and Harakat Hazm were trained and supplied with US weapons in Turkey before defecting to Al Qaeda and taking that US paid for training and weapons with them this doesn't strike me as the brightest idea the US has ever had.
Meanwhile Turkey is still refusing the allow the coalition to use USAF base Incirlik or move supplies to Kobane through Turkish territory. Also on Friday Turkey announced that 12 people who had been arrested for assaulting 2 US Navy sailors in Istanbul on Wednesday (12/11/14) were to be released without charge, bail or even questioning. This represents a very clear endorsement by the Turkish government of assaults on US service personnel and seems to confirm that the attacks themselves were planned in advance by the Turkish government.
Putting aside concerns over whether the Sunni-Arab insurgent groups can be trusted and the fact that making concessions to Turkey under these circumstances makes the US look extremely weak Saturday provided further evidence that this plan simply will not work when Syrian civilians rose up against the local Sunni-Arab insurgent group in Douma. What's been happening in this suburb around 15km (9 miles) to the north-east of Damascus is your pretty standard failed state gangsterism. Basically the Army of Islam who are part of the IF grouping had been exploiting food shortages to drive up prices and line their own pockets. Amid complaints from local residents the Army of Islam crucified a man who had led the complaints in the main square. This attempt to terrorise the local population into silence failed and on Saturday local residents attempted to storm the Army of Islam's food stores. The Army of Islam opened fire on them to stop them.
This morning ISIL released another of their propaganda videos. Lasting around 15 minutes this was divided into three main sections. The opening section gives a brief history of the group in which a clear effort was made to emphasise that it was formed to kill US troops in Iraq but was later forced to fight against the Syria's Shia led government (which is considered infidels) in order to avoid divisions with other Sunni-Arab insurgent groups that were fighting the Syrian government. This utterly destroys Obama's repeated claims that ISIL was formed in response to the actions of the Syrian government. It also almost seems to be celebrating Obama's promise to send more US troops to Iraq because ISIL obviously intends to kill them.
The second section of the video shows the beheading of 18 Syrian government soldiers and airmen. The video is keen to emphasise that they are members of the Shia Alawite sect and therefore considered infidels. This section seems primarily to terrify ISIL opponents but also reassure the other Sunni-Arab insurgents that ISIL is still committed to fighting Syria's infidel government and killing as many Shias as possible. The other thing I found interesting about this section is that it actually shows the beheadings. Hacking somebody's head off with a bayonet is really quite difficult especially when you have to cut through the spinal cord. Therefore previous beheading videos have actually only shown the victim's throat being cut before an edit and then footage of the decapitated corpse. This has led to ISIL supporters on the Internet and other conspiracy theorists to claim that the videos have actually been faked to provide a justification for fighting ISIL. So by actually showing the beheadings this time ISIL seem to be trying to convince their own supporters that yes they do indeed cut people's heads off.
The final section features audio recordings of different Islamist groups in places like Libya, Algeria and Yemen pledging allegiance to ISIL. It also features audio recordings of ISIL's self-styled Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi accepting those pledges of allegiance and welcoming the new members. Crucially this section includes the pledge by Ansar Beit al-Maqdis - an Egyptian group based in the Sinai. Ansar Beit al-Maqdis only pledged allegiance to ISIL last Monday (10/11/14) several days after al-Baghdadi was injured in an air-strike near Mosul in Iraq. Therefore this is intended to prove that al-Baghdadi was not killed or even seriously wounded in the US attack.
Really driving home that point the video ends with British born ISIL "executioner-in-chief" who is known as "Jihadi John" standing with the decapitated head of former US Army Ranger Peter Kassig at his feet. This is intended to be a big "F*ck You!" to America over the Mosul air-strike by showing that it was not a success and ISIL are still most certainly in business. It actually appears as though prior to the release of the video ISIL put around a false rumour that Jihadi John had also been injured in the strike in order to maximise the impact of his shock return. Finally although he was in Syria as an aid worker and converted to ISIL's branch of Islam whilst in captivity the video ignores all that and instead focuses on the fact that Kassig served with the "armies of the cross" (US Army) in Iraq.
That struck me as ISIL practically demanding that Obama sends more US troops to Iraq for ISIL to kill. I however think it should make Obama think long and hard about the way he is prepared to sacrifice American lives for political convenience.
17:40 on 16/11/14 (UK date)
In the east of the city the majority of the fighting has been focused on the Azadi (Freedom) Square and the Reshad Mosque areas. Despite almost two days of near continuous fighting it seems that no territory has been lost or gained by either side although the YPG have captured quantities of weapons and ammunition from ISIL and killed at least 18 ISIL fighters including 1 senior commander. In the south of the city there have been similar clashes although these seem to have been almost completely continuous in nature making it hard to assess exact details of what has taken place. However it is becoming clear that the YPG have not lost any significant territory.
On the outskirts of Kobane the YPG have pushed out west beyond Tall Shair hill and into the villages of Minaz and Gire Iza. This increases the buffer between Kobane and ISIL forces on the western front to around 8km (4.8 miles) substantially loosening ISIL's siege of the city. To the south-east the YPG have continued to expand and then consolidate their hold on the main road between Kobane and the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa - 140km (84 miles) to the south-east - at the village of Helinj. This of course cuts ISIL's main supply line into Kobane however the YPG have not yet been able to fully re-capture Mishtenur hill which would completely trap ISIL in the south of Kobane. This of course puts the YPG fighters in Helinj in a perilous position holding out between two large groups of ISIL fighters.
Across all fronts the YPG have lost 8 fighters in the last two days. Although they have been able to capture weapons and ammunition from ISIL it has been almost two full weeks since YPG units in Kobane were fully re-supplied and the fighting has once again moved into an attrition phase. Therefore it is becoming increasingly urgent that Kobane is soon re-supplied again - ideally by road from Turkey - or all the gains that have been made in the past two weeks risk being overturned.
ISIL have also been suffering substantial set-backs in Iraq. On Friday (14/11/14) the Iraqi government announced that it had not only liberated the town of Beiji which sits around 180km (105 miles) north of Iraq's capital Baghdad but also broken the siege of the large oil refinery that sits just outside Beiji. This is certainly more truth then lie. On Wednesday (12/11/14) the Iraq Army backed by Shia militiamen had liberated around 60% of Beiji including the critical central district. Throughout Thursday they pushed directly north out of the town liberating around a further 20% of the city in the process. From Beiji's northern border the Iraqi forces then quickly moved directly to the oil refinery which is around 5km (3 miles) to the north thus breaking the ISIL siege of the refinery which has been going on since June.
As a result the Beiji refinery which produces around 25% of Iraq's oil products including gasoline is close to being back in production. However the Iraqis still need to clear ISIL from the areas in Beiji town they still hold along with the areas to the north, east and west of the refinery alongside making the whole area safe from roadside bombs and booby traps. While I appreciate the need to for good news the speed at which the Iraqis announced that Beiji had been totally liberated is unlikely to win them any friends. That's because it gives the impression that they don't quite understand the scale of the task ahead of them and that doesn't inspire confidence in them as a fighting force.
Any concerns about the Iraqis fighting abilities that the premature announcement of victory at Beiji may have caused were quickly dispelled on Saturday (15/11/14) when they also re-captured the Adhaim Dam from ISIL. Sitting around 100km (60 miles) north of Baghdad and around 115km (70 miles) south-east of Beiji the Adhaim Dam is considered Iraq's third largest behind Mosul and Haditha Dams and is primarily used for irrigation of vital farmland in the surrounding area. As with Iraq's other dams it sits in front of a large reservoir which if the dam was destroyed could be used as a tsunami-style weapon on mass destruction.
13:45 on 16/11/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 16:15 on 16/11/14 (UK date).
Despite the Iraqis and the Syrian Kurds significant gains against ISIL the US-led coalition has seemed far more interested in carrying out symbolic, showpiece bombing rather then offering support to those fighting ISIL.
On Friday the US announced that it had again carried out air-strikes against the mythical "Khorasan Group." As I explain every time they're mentioned the Khorasan Group are more of a loose assembly of highly trained, core Al-Qaeda fighters rather then an actual group. Their name which was assigned by US intelligence comes from a large province in north-eastern Iran. As such the exist more as a euphemism for Iran or more generally Shia Muslims rather then an actual enemy. Unfortunately I've not been able to find out which Syrian group the US actually bombed in the attack but as the strikes occurred in Aleppo City it seems that the location of the attack was more important then the target itself.
Located 50km (30 miles) east of Syria's western border with Turkey Aleppo City sits around 100km (60 miles) west of the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa and around 450km (270 miles) north of Syria's capital Damascus. The capital of Aleppo province Aleppo City provides something of a neat microcosm of the entire Syria conflict. The majority of the city (65-70%) is controlled by the Syrian government while a further 20-25% is controlled by the Al Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF). The remaining 5-10% of the city is in the hands of other rebel groups in either the Free Syrian Army (FSA) or the Islamic Front (IF) groupings. However recently FSA groups in the area such as the Syrian Revolutionaries Front (SRF) and Harakat Hazm have recently switched their allegiance to ANF. The area outside of Aleppo City is under ISIL control.
Ever since Hezbollah joined the fight in Syria at the request of the Syrian government back in April 2013 all the Sunni-Arab insurgent groups have slowly and steadily been losing territory to the Syrian government. This is a large part of the reason why ISIL turned tail and headed off into Iraq in late 2013. As the Syrian government has been focusing its efforts on reclaiming territory along Syria's western side Aleppo City has recently become the next city on their list and they have steadily been re-capturing it. However as the insurgent groups grip on reality has always been a bit tenuous they have decided that it is the US-led coalition's air-strikes against ISIL that is causing the Syrian government to gain ground in Aleppo City. As such the United Nations Special Envoy on Syria - Staffan de Mistura - has been proposing a freeze on the fighting in Aleppo City. Primarily this is an effort to stop the insurgent groups being defeated but it is being presented as a way to seperate the fight against ISIL from the wider conflict in Syria.
Therefore the real reason behind the attack in Aleppo was US President Obama making concessions to the Sunni-Arab insurgent groups and Turkey by indicating that he is far more interested in starting an illegal war against the Syrian government and killing as many Shias as possible rather then defeating ISIL. The US made a further concession on Saturday when it announced that it is going to pay for 2000 fighters from Sunni-Arab insurgent groups to be trained in Turkey. As both the SRF and Harakat Hazm were trained and supplied with US weapons in Turkey before defecting to Al Qaeda and taking that US paid for training and weapons with them this doesn't strike me as the brightest idea the US has ever had.
Meanwhile Turkey is still refusing the allow the coalition to use USAF base Incirlik or move supplies to Kobane through Turkish territory. Also on Friday Turkey announced that 12 people who had been arrested for assaulting 2 US Navy sailors in Istanbul on Wednesday (12/11/14) were to be released without charge, bail or even questioning. This represents a very clear endorsement by the Turkish government of assaults on US service personnel and seems to confirm that the attacks themselves were planned in advance by the Turkish government.
Putting aside concerns over whether the Sunni-Arab insurgent groups can be trusted and the fact that making concessions to Turkey under these circumstances makes the US look extremely weak Saturday provided further evidence that this plan simply will not work when Syrian civilians rose up against the local Sunni-Arab insurgent group in Douma. What's been happening in this suburb around 15km (9 miles) to the north-east of Damascus is your pretty standard failed state gangsterism. Basically the Army of Islam who are part of the IF grouping had been exploiting food shortages to drive up prices and line their own pockets. Amid complaints from local residents the Army of Islam crucified a man who had led the complaints in the main square. This attempt to terrorise the local population into silence failed and on Saturday local residents attempted to storm the Army of Islam's food stores. The Army of Islam opened fire on them to stop them.
This morning ISIL released another of their propaganda videos. Lasting around 15 minutes this was divided into three main sections. The opening section gives a brief history of the group in which a clear effort was made to emphasise that it was formed to kill US troops in Iraq but was later forced to fight against the Syria's Shia led government (which is considered infidels) in order to avoid divisions with other Sunni-Arab insurgent groups that were fighting the Syrian government. This utterly destroys Obama's repeated claims that ISIL was formed in response to the actions of the Syrian government. It also almost seems to be celebrating Obama's promise to send more US troops to Iraq because ISIL obviously intends to kill them.
The second section of the video shows the beheading of 18 Syrian government soldiers and airmen. The video is keen to emphasise that they are members of the Shia Alawite sect and therefore considered infidels. This section seems primarily to terrify ISIL opponents but also reassure the other Sunni-Arab insurgents that ISIL is still committed to fighting Syria's infidel government and killing as many Shias as possible. The other thing I found interesting about this section is that it actually shows the beheadings. Hacking somebody's head off with a bayonet is really quite difficult especially when you have to cut through the spinal cord. Therefore previous beheading videos have actually only shown the victim's throat being cut before an edit and then footage of the decapitated corpse. This has led to ISIL supporters on the Internet and other conspiracy theorists to claim that the videos have actually been faked to provide a justification for fighting ISIL. So by actually showing the beheadings this time ISIL seem to be trying to convince their own supporters that yes they do indeed cut people's heads off.
The final section features audio recordings of different Islamist groups in places like Libya, Algeria and Yemen pledging allegiance to ISIL. It also features audio recordings of ISIL's self-styled Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi accepting those pledges of allegiance and welcoming the new members. Crucially this section includes the pledge by Ansar Beit al-Maqdis - an Egyptian group based in the Sinai. Ansar Beit al-Maqdis only pledged allegiance to ISIL last Monday (10/11/14) several days after al-Baghdadi was injured in an air-strike near Mosul in Iraq. Therefore this is intended to prove that al-Baghdadi was not killed or even seriously wounded in the US attack.
Really driving home that point the video ends with British born ISIL "executioner-in-chief" who is known as "Jihadi John" standing with the decapitated head of former US Army Ranger Peter Kassig at his feet. This is intended to be a big "F*ck You!" to America over the Mosul air-strike by showing that it was not a success and ISIL are still most certainly in business. It actually appears as though prior to the release of the video ISIL put around a false rumour that Jihadi John had also been injured in the strike in order to maximise the impact of his shock return. Finally although he was in Syria as an aid worker and converted to ISIL's branch of Islam whilst in captivity the video ignores all that and instead focuses on the fact that Kassig served with the "armies of the cross" (US Army) in Iraq.
That struck me as ISIL practically demanding that Obama sends more US troops to Iraq for ISIL to kill. I however think it should make Obama think long and hard about the way he is prepared to sacrifice American lives for political convenience.
17:40 on 16/11/14 (UK date)
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