Sunday 6 February 2011

Daddy's Back!

And apparently I'm feeling a little bit arrogant.

In Egypt the daily rate for street thugs has risen from 50 Egyptian Pounds to 100 Egyptian Pounds but there are still very few takers. So while the anti-Mubarak protesters have been out in force, for this weekend, Egypt has been more peaceful then parts of the UK.

Meanwhile the European Union has joined the United States call for the process by which President Mubarak stands down to begin immediately. This is a diplomatic way of saying that Mubarak must leave and he must go sooner rather then later. This appears to have prompted the resignation/sacking of senior members of the ruling National Democratic Party's (NDP) politburo including Mubarak's son, Gamal. Criminal investigations have also been launched into senior Egyptian civil servants including those running the Interior Ministry who are responsible for Egypt's police. So, on the surface at least, the question in Egypt is no longer whether Mubarak will stay on as President but when will he leave and what will replace him.

Annoyingly the most sensible suggestion has come from the Muslim Brotherhood. Their idea is simply to follow the Egyptian constitution and have the speaker of the house take temporary charge much as would happen if an 82 year old President died in office. This would allow a new Parliament to be elected so it could debate and vote through the constitutional changes needed so a free and fair Presidential election can be held in September. As Egypt's uprising was driven by a wide variety of groups including business leaders, trade unions, the middle classes, Islamists and people who'd simply had enough getting these groups together within the open and civilised forum of a Parliament to negotiate a solution is by far the best idea. In fact you could say that this is exactly what Parliaments are designed to do in a democracy.

Although I don't agree the worry is that the Muslim Brotherhood will dominate this Parliament and use that dominance to swing the result of the Presidential election and future elections in their favour so they can set up an Iran-style theocracy. So the idea would be made much more palatable if the Muslim Brotherhood were prepared to limit their influence in that Parliament by capping the number of candidates they field to, say, forty.

Despite all this good news there are still worrying and not so subtle signs that Mubarak and those close to him have yet to fully accept that he will be leaving power. Therefore for the security and safety of those who have taken part in the protests I think that the street protests need to continue at a rate of at least one a week until Mubarak finally stands down. However I will be reducing my personal involvement in the situation because if it becomes a battle of wills between me and Mubarak this is likely to go on for far longer then it needs to.

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