Just as anti-war rallies across Europe were coming to an end, the televised FA cup game was entering it's second half and Britain was holding it's breath awaiting the announcement of the new Doctor Who Israel decided to launch it's land invasion of Gaza.
At around 18:30 GMT 4 columns of infantry and light armour crossed the northern Gaza border and have pushed down seizing control of the main North-South road to just south of Gaza city surrounding major towns and refugee camps as they went. So far the IDF have reported to have killed at least 20 Hamas fighters and Hamas have reported killing 5 Israeli troops and capturing a further 2 although Israeli reporting restrictions mean that neither figure can be confirmed. It has also been reported that at 20 civilians have been killed by the Israeli artillery barrage.
The timing of this ground assault is particularly interesting because over the last couple of days there has been a lot of telephone chatter and diplomatic rumor suggesting that in spite of the extreme provocation they've been under for the last two years Hamas were beginning to be able to politically justify a ceasefire while the legalities and practicalities of the Israel blockade are discussed. If the Israelis were aware of these rumours then it would appear that the IDF rushed their ground offensive in order to get their killing done while they could still justify it as a defensive action.
Israeli officials have warned that this invasion and occupation of the North of Gaza could last for days if not weeks and I think there are two ways in which the situation could develop. It could be an attempt to establish a bridge head within northern Gaza from which Israelis will gradually expand their occupation. It is more likely though that the IDF will hold their ground and lay siege to towns like Gaza City and Beit Hanoun giving them their own individual, miniture versions of the wider Gaza blockade. As the Israeli intelligence picture begins to clear of what the Hamas assets are in these locations those assets will be destroyed by air-strike, artillery fire and as a last resort commando raid. The doomsday scenario is that the IDF will dig in World War 1 style and not stop shooting until every last Gazan has either charged the Israeli machine guns or starved to death.
As the current tactics of the Israeli army in Gaza are looking worryingly similar to the tactics the British Army deployed to control the 2008 Climate Camp I think it is important to look at yesterday's anti-war demonstration in London.
The Stop The War Coalition held their traditional march from the Embankment, past the Houses of Parliament and up Whitehall where organisers encouraged people to throw shoes at Downing street which gave the police the perfect opportunity to don their anti-projectile protective clothing (Riot shields and Helmets to you guv). The march then ended with a rally in the great public-order holding pen known as Trafalgar square. As the rally began to wind down a group of around 2000 protesters broke away and started to head for "Embassy Land" in Kensington. As this scenario has been played out dozens of times before the police acted quickly deploying lines of officers to filter the crowd and bring them under control. Once the break out group had been corralled into a moving cordon they were led down the Regent Street underpass which is essentially a tunnel with high walls and a concrete roof. Having trapped the protesters in a confined space away from prying eyes the police baton charged them three times, cracking heads and pissing everyone off in what the police have describes as; "one 10-metre advance into the crowd to regain control of the protest, using recognised and proportionate tactics". Following the beating the protesters were allowed to continue to the Israeli Embassy where a hard-core of masked up demonstrators clashed further with the police. Snatch squads were not deployed and the number of arrests is said to be quite low although quite a few needed medical treatment.
Although I don't wish to criticize anyone who is prepared to stand up and be counted I'm not quite sure exactly what this piece of street theatre hoped to achieve after all the British Government has already proved itself to be so whipped on the issue of Zionism it can't even call it's own troops to order let alone question the actions of the IDF. In fact the whole performance may well have made things worse because images of protesters in faux-Islamic dress clashing with police makes it much easier for the Israeli government to portray their own anti-war protesters as terrorist sympathisers and crack down on them as threats to domestic security. Plus long after the bruises have healed and the photographs have faded the British Police with analysing events and running scenarios to find more effective ways to pacify protests from young Arab men. Then, as part of a future "Peace process", Shin Beit will turn round and say to Britain that they would recognise a two state solution just as soon as those young Arab men on the West Bank would stop rioting. Britain will then no doubt furnish them with pages of data on the subject and the Israeli's will reverse engineer it to find ways to make West Bank protests more violent so they can justify yet another defensive action in much the same way they've fully understood for years that the Qassam rocket attacks from Gaza are an anarchic response to the blockade rather then any serious attempt to threaten Israels security.
Given all that I personally think the best way to show solidarity with the Palestinians is to go down the pub and watch the football. After all Israel seems to be bedding down for a long war.
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