On Saturday October 7th (7/10/23) the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) launched a surprise attack against Israel from the Gaza Strip. Under the cover of some 3,000 rockets this attack saw Hamas temporarily take control of 480km² (260miles²) of Israeli territory alongside the Gaza Strip.
Within that area Hamas set about systematically slaughtering a large number of they believed to be Jews. Simply because they believed them to be Jews. Something which, prima facie (at first sight) constitutes multiple offences of the Crime Against Humanity of; "Murder" contrary to Article 7.1(a) of The Rome Statute of 1998. Prima facie it also seems to constitute multiple offences of the Crime Against Humanity of; "Extermination" or; "Genocide" with the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to articles 7.1(b)(h) of the Rome Statute.
Hamas also took hostage a large number of people, both civilian and military, which it believed to be Jews. Each individual hostage taken prima facie constituting the multiple Crimes Against Humanity of; "Imprisonment," "Forced Displacement" and "Other Inhumane Acts [...]Causing Serious Injury to Body or to Physical or Mental Health." With the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to Article 7.1(e)(i)(k)(h) of the Rome Statute.
While it took them an embarrassingly long time to do so. International bodies such as the United Nations Entity For Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women) and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) have now acknowledged that Hamas also committed widespread and systematic acts of; "Rape and/or Sexual Violence." Further Crimes Against Humanity contrary to Article 7.1(g) of the Rome Statute.
In committing its crimes Hamas used some of the most wanton and gruesome violence ever seen. Going to great lengths to mutilate the corpses of those it killed. Seemingly in an attempt to maximise the suffering of their relatives individually and nation of Israel collectively. By violating a key tenet of Jewish religious law. That if a body is less then whole then it cannot be returned to God through Jewish mourning rites. As a result it is still impossible to give an accurate number of those killed on October 7th (7/10/23).
In a further effort to cause maximum suffering Hamas has still not provided a comprehensive list of the hostages it has taken. It certainly hasn't allowed the International Committee of the Red Cross/Crescent (ICRC) to visit them, let alone render them Humanitarian Aid. Not that the ICRC has expressed any interest in doing so.
This coupled with Hamas' wanton and gruesome violence also makes it impossible to give an exact number of those kidnapped on October 7th (7/10/23). However the current estimate is that Hamas and associated groups are still holding 125 live hostages. Constituting 375 Individual, Ongoing Crimes Against Humanity.
Almost immediately as Hamas attacked the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) launched a counter-offensive. This included airstrikes against military targets within the Gaza Strip. On October 28th (28/10) this counter-offensive expanded to include IDF ground operations within the Gaza Strip.
This initial phase of the IDF's ground operations saw them divide the Gaza Strip into two zones, broadly along the Wadi Gaza river. The southern Non-Combat Zone and the northern Combat Zone. Instructing and assisting civilians to move out of the Combat Zone and into the Non-Combat Zone.
By around November 13th (13/11/23) it seemed that the IDF had all but defeated Hamas in the Combat Zone in the North. Advancing from Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun it had encircled and entered Gaza City, the main city in the Combat Zone. Hamas' main defensive positions in the Jabaliya and Shati districts of Gaza City had been overrun and it was assessed that 10 of Hamas' 24 battalions in the Combat Zone had lost Combat Effectiveness.
This left Hamas in control of the Shejaiya, Rimal, Tuffah and Daraj districts of Gaza City. Along with Jabaliya and the accompanying Jabaliya Refugee Camp, a city sitting just 4km (2.4 miles) from Gaza City. Although given how densely populated the Gaza Strip is all of the urban areas do tend to blur into one.
Beyond those areas IDF operations in the Northern Combat Zone had moved from combat to mopping up operations. That is to say indentifying remaining Hamas fighters and capturing or, frankly, killing them. Along with dismantling Hamas infrastructure such as its weapons stores, bases and underground tunnels.
On Sunday (17/12/23) the IDF revealed publicly the largest Hamas tunnel network it had uncovered so far. Wide enough to accommodate large vehicles like SUV's this was 50 metres/yards underground and stretched for over 4km (2.4 miles). Linking Jabaliya with the very northern tip of the Gaza Strip, just metres from the Erez Border Crossing with Israel. The IDF had actually discovered this tunnel back in early November however has only gone public with the information now as it had taken them over a month to fully clear, secure and map it.
In launching its attack on Israel on October 7th (7/12/23) Hamas had a clear aspiration. That Israel would not fight back. Instead entering into lengthy and torturous negotiations which would see all Hamas combatants legally held in Israel prisons released in return for the vague hope of some of the Israeli hostages being released. If Israel did fight back then it would be something that Hamas could wait out. The sort of short skirmish which has been seen numerous times over the years since Israel ended its occupation of the Gaza Strip back in 2005.
Led by the US under the current Biden Regime the vaguely defined International Community's position has been alarmingly similar to that of Hamas. Jews and particularly Israelis are a race of subhuman demons that have no right not to be treated as they were on October 7th (7/12/23). So once their bloodlust had been sated in another short skirmish they could be forced into negotiations. Allowing Hamas to emerge victorious.
On November 24th (24/11/23) it looked as though Hamas may be successful in its aspiration. A ceasefire was declared as Israel exchanged Hamas combatants held in Israeli prisons for civilian hostages held by Hamas. This ceasefire was extended several times with 81 Israeli civilian hostages being exchanged for 210 Hamas combatants. Alongside but separate from that agreement Hamas also released 21 non-Israeli civilian hostages, without obtaining any concession in return.
However when that ceasefire broke down on December 1st (1/12/23) the fighting immediately resumed. Even whilst the ceasefire was in place Hamas indiscriminately fired rocket artillery into civilians areas of Israel, War Crimes contrary to Article 3 of the Fourth Geneva Convention (1949). Waiting until the official end of the ceasefire the IDF resumed its airstrikes across the Gaza Strip and its mopping up operations in the Northern Combat Zone.
On December 3rd (3/12/23) the IDF launched a new phase of its ground operations. Attacking the Rimal and Shejaiya districts of Gaza City along with Jabaliya and Jabaliya Refugee Camp. This was closely coordinated with ground operations against Khan Younis, essentially the Gaza Strip's second city, which is located on the Southern Zone around 6km (3.5 miles) North of the Rafah Border Crossing with Egypt.
Perhaps with Hamas realising that this isn't just another short skirmish it can wait out and survive. Since this new phase of the IDF's operation has begun the fighting has become much fiercer.
Atrocity Propaganda has long been a central part of Hamas' military strategy. This involves it deeply embedding itself within the civilian population. Not to prevent the IDF from attacking but to maximise the death and injury to civilians when IDF does attack. All so Hamas can scream; "Atrocity!" and try to build international pressure against Israel.
This systematic strategy by Hamas constitutes A Specific Class of War Crime known as; "Perfidy." Contrary to Article 23 of the Hague Convention (1907). Examples of Perfidy include faking or feigning Non-Combatant or Civilian Status, faking the use of the White Flag of Surrender or Truce along with faking the use of other Recognised Emblems such as those of the ICRC or the United Nations (UN).
Such is the extent of Hamas' Perfidy in the Shejaiya district of Gaza City they're talking about every third civilian building really being a Hamas Fighting Position.
On October 1st 2017 (1/10/17) the US experienced the deadliest mass shooting in its history. When a gunman opened fire from the Mandalay Bay Hotel in Las Vegas on the Route 91 Harvest Festival being held on the Las Vegas Strip below. This occurred shortly after that much talked about 2016/17 Battle of Mosul. In no small part it was intended to illustrate how much damage one person with an automatic weapon in an elevated position can cause.
Alongside using civilian buildings Hamas is also making extensive use of ambush tactics. On December 15th (15/12/23) the IDF released the details of one such ambush it had managed to thwart.
Hamas had hidden speakers playing recordings of children singing and playing in Hebrew. Hamas had also scattered Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) disguised as children's toys and backpacks. The idea was to trick IDF troops into thinking that it had found some of the children Hamas kidnapped on October 7th (7/10/23). Then as they rushed towards the location Hamas would remotely detonate the IED's killing the IDF troops.
On December 12th (12/12/23) the IDF found itself caught in a particularly deadly Hamas ambush in Shejaiya.
Hamas had buried IED's in the roadway and were monitoring them with remote cameras. When the IDF troops entered the ambush zone Hamas detonated the IED's separating four IDF troops from the main IDF force. Hamas then proceeded to attack the IDF force from two directions. Rather impressively the IDF then outflanked the Hamas force on three axis. Eventually overrunning it and causing it to flee following an hours long firefight. Unfortunately four IDF troops were killed in the initial IED attack, a further three were killed in a subsequent IED attack and two more were killed in the firefight. Those nine deaths representing the largest loss of life by the IDF if operations in the Gaza Strip so far.
Amid the ferocity of the fighting there are now more frequent signs that Hamas is starting to completely collapse as a military force. Particularly in the Northern Combat Zone.
One such sign is the massive increase in the number of Hamas fighters surrendering en masse. With entire platoons surrendering to the IDF at the same time. Having been abandoned by their commanders and running out of food, water and ammunition.
A particularly notable incident occurred on or around December 12th (12/12/23) when some 70 Hamas fighters surrendered at the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahia. Those captured included Ahmad Kahlot, who you may have seen appear in the international media portraying himself as the director of the hospital. Particularly appealing for fuel to be delivered or refusing to evacuate patients as fuel began to run out, yet curiously never did.
In reality Ahmad Kahlot is a Brigadier-General in Hamas' military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades. His role since 2010 has been to command the Hamas military base at the Kamal Adwan Hospital where Hamas combatants wear the uniforms of medical staff, travel around in marked ambulances and fly the emblem of the ICRC. All very serious War Crimes of Perfidy.
Such is the sheer number of Hamas fighters surrendering that photographs and video of some of the incidents have begun to emerge online.
There they have triggered some outrage over the fact that in surrendering the prisoners have been required to strip to their underwear. This is a standard and lawful tactic used wherever there is a concern that suicide bombers may be hiding themselves amongst those surrendering. The perfidious War Crime of faking the use of the White Flag of surrender. As its situation has become ever more desperate Hamas has been making increasing use of suicide bombers, particularly female suicide bombers.
Although far from entirely positive news. Another sign of Hamas' growing collapse has been the increasing number of the remains of Israeli hostages being recovered by the IDF. There have been five in the past week alone.
It is unclear whether these hostages have been murdered by Hamas while being held prisoners or whether they were murdered by Hamas on October 7th (7/10/23) and then their remains were then taken hostage. In 2014 Hamas seized the bodies of two IDF soldiers, Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin. Almost 10 years later Hamas is still trying to ransom those remains for the release of Hamas combatants. Regardless the fact that these five sets of remains have been recovered is further evidence of Hamas no longer being able to exert effective control over its positions and, what it considers, resources.
Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin were killed and their bodies kidnapped when Hamas ambushed an IDF Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC) in the Shejaiya district of Gaza City. Hamas celebrated the attack by erecting a statue of an APC with a clenched fist punching through it in the main square in Shejaiya. It is another sign of Hamas' collapse that on October 18th (18/12/23) members of Shaul and Goldin's Golani Brigade were able to secure the square and tear down that statue.
On December 15th (15/12/23) Hamas' growing collapse brought what should have been a moment of immense joy, only for it to turn into tragedy. Three of Hamas' civilian hostages - Yotam Haim, Samer Talaka and Alon Shamriz - were able to free themselves from captivity in Shejaiya. They approached IDF troops stripped to the waist with their hands raised and waving a makeshift White Flag or surrender.
Unfortunately to the IDF troops this looked exactly like one of the many perfidious Hamas ambushes they and their colleagues had faced before. So feeling threatened one of those IDF troops potentially broke with the Rules of Engagement (RoE) and opened fire. Resulting in all three being killed.
If there is any positive to be drawn from that situation. I'm sure that all IDF troops operating in the Gaza Strip now have a much better understanding of the RoE and are all well aware that they may well encounter hostages who have managed to free themselves amid Hamas' spreading collapse.
Another indication of the significant progress the IDF has been making in defeating Hamas has been Rocket Artillery Hamas has been able to fire into civilian areas of Israel. In another departure from previous rounds of fighting in the Gaza Strip the IDF is not publishing details of Hamas and associated groups rocket fire. Making it much harder for people whose access to the Red Alert App is Geolocked to keep track of.
However on October 7th (7/12/23) Hamas fired some 3,000 rockets and other projectiles into Israel. Once Hamas had been expelled from Israeli territory that rocket fire dropped to an average of a 100 or so per day. Once the IDF ground operation began that average dropped again to around 30-40 per day.
Amid the second phase of the IDF's ground operation it has dropped to an average of no more than a handful per day. There are now days without any rocket fire at all. Hamas have been able to put on periodic big displays. Such as on Saturday (16/12/23) and Tuesday (19/12/23). However it's clear that Hamas is running out of ammunition. So needs to forgo daily attacks in order to be able to mount those big displays.
One of the main reasons why the IDF began its ground operations with the North of the Gaza Strip is that this is where it was easiest for Hamas to launch rockets into Central Israel. Hamas is now only able to launch rockets from the Tuffah and Daraj districts of Gaza City. Hamas' ability to launch rockets from Khan Younis has also been significantly reduced.
Prior to launching its assault on Khan Younis the IDF established a Safe-Zone for civilians in Al-Mawasi, located on the coast around 4km (2.5 miles) West of Khan Younis. One of the first things the IDF did in launching its assault was to establish a Humanitarian Corridor for from Khan Younis to Al-Mawasi.
Unfortunately international aid agencies such as the UN and the ICRC are still refusing to provide Humanitarian Aid to Palestinian civilians in Al-Mawasi. Hamas however has had no such qualms. Doing what the UN and ICRC have claimed to be impossible, establishing infrastructure at Al-Mawasi. Unfortunately Hamas has only bothered to establish infrastructure to fire rockets at Israel, rather than to help Palestinian civilians.
As it has been forced from other areas Al-Mawasi along with Rafah has now emerged as the main areas for Hamas rocket fire into Israel. Being further away from Israel this has only had extremely limited success. Something like 35% of the rockets Hamas are firing from Al-Mawasi fall short and land on Palestinian civilians within the Gaza Strip.
There are indications that the IDF's ground operations could expand to Rafah. On December 15th (15/12/23) the IDF conducted its first airstrikes in The Philadelphi Corridor. This is a 1km (0.6 mile) wide buffer-zone running the length of the border between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. It was established during the 1979 return of the Sinai Peninsula from Israel to Egypt. When it ended its occupation of the Gaza Strip in 2005 Israel withdrew its forces from the Philadelphi Corridor and gave limited Egyptian forces permission to operate there. Although Israel has always retained the right to reassert its control over the buffer-zone.
Personally I don't think the expansion of the IDF's ground operations to Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor can come soon enough. If I was commanding the IDF that's where I would have started its ground operations. Allowing the area to be established as a Humanitarian Bridgehead where Palestinian civilians can find safety and be provided with Humanitarian Aid as Hamas are cleared from the rest of the Gaza Strip.
However on Monday (18/12/23) the IDF completed its mopping up operations in Beit Hanoun. While on Tuesday (19/12/23) the IDF completed its combat operations in Jabaliya and the accompanying Refugee Camp. So while mopping up operations in Jabaliya and combat operations in the Shejaiya, Tuffah and Daraj districts of Gaza City will likely continue for some time. There is now a possibility that the North of the Gaza Strip could be established as that Humanitarian Bridgehead.
Unfortunately that will require international aid agencies like the UN and the ICRC to work with Israel to deliver Humanitarian Aid through the border crossings in the North, such as the Erez Crossing. Rather than the Kareem Shalom Crossing in the South which was opened on December 17th (17/12/23).
Given the sheer number of Hamas combatants who've been captured wearing the uniforms of the UN and the ICRC, along with the experience of Al-Mawasi. That seems highly unlikely.
Supposedly neutral international aid agencies such as the UN and the ICRC seem even more committed than Hamas to maximising the suffering of the Palestinian people.
18:51 on 20/12/23 (UK date).
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