On Saturday October 7th (7/10/23) the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) launched a surprise attack against Israel from the Gaza Strip. Under the cover of some 3,000 rockets this attack saw Hamas temporarily take control of 480km² (260miles²) of Israeli territory alongside the Gaza Strip.
Within that area Hamas set about systematically slaughtering a large number of they believed to be Jews. Simply because they believed them to be Jews. Something which, prima facie (at first sight) constitutes multiple offences of the Crime Against Humanity of; "Murder" contrary to Article 7.1(a) of The Rome Statute of 1998. Prima facie it also seems to constitute multiple offences of the Crime Against Humanity of; "Extermination" or; "Genocide" with the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to articles 7.1(b)(h) of the Rome Statute.
Hamas also took hostage a large number of people, both civilian and military, which it believed to be Jews. Each individual hostage taken prima facie constituting the multiple Crimes Against Humanity of; "Imprisonment," "Forced Displacement" and "Other Inhumane Acts [...]Causing Serious Injury to Body or to Physical or Mental Health." With the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to Article 7.1(e)(i)(k)(h) of the Rome Statute.
Although it took them until December 1st (1/12/23) and December 6th (6/12/23) respectively. Both the United Nations Entity For Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women) and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) have now acknowledged that Hamas also committed widespread and systematic acts of; "Rape and/or Sexual Violence." Further Crimes Against Humanity contrary to Article 7.1(g) of the Rome Statute.
Hamas has not provided a comprehensive list of the hostages it has taken. Let alone allowed the International Committee of the Red Cross/Crescent (ICRC) to visit them. Some hostages have been rescued, some have been freed and some have been killed in captivity. This coupled with the gruesome violence with which Hamas committed its crimes makes it impossible to give an exact number of those killed or taken hostage at this time.
However the current assessment is that Hamas is still holding 137 hostages. Representing a total of 548 Individual, Ongoing Crimes Against Humanity.
Almost immediately as Hamas attacked the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) launched a counter-offensive. This included airstrikes against military targets within the Gaza Strip. On October 28th (28/10) this counter-offensive expanded to include IDF ground operations within the Gaza Strip.
This initial phase of the IDF's ground operations saw them divide the Gaza Strip into two zones, broadly along the Wadi Gaza river. The southern Non-Combat Zone and the northern Combat Zone. Instructing and assisting civilians to move out of the Combat Zone and into the Non-Combat Zone.
By around November 13th (13/11/23) it seemed that the IDF had all but defeated Hamas in the Combat Zone in the North. Advancing Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun it had encircled and entered Gaza City, the main city in the Combat Zone. Hamas' main defensive positions in the Jabaliya and Shati districts of Gaza City had been overrun and it was assessed that 10 of Hamas' 24 battalions in the Combat Zone had lost Combat Effectiveness.
Combat Effectiveness is when any organised military formation such as a battalion has seen so many of its members killed, injured or captured it is no longer able to fight effectively. Rather like how if enough members of a football team are sent off it can no longer compete with the other team.
During The Second Indo-China War (1955-1975) which it called The Vietnam War the US became obsessed with statistical analysis. Focusing entirely on tangible things which could be measured such as the "bodycount" - the number of enemy fighters killed and the number of weapons seized as a measure of success. In doing this they ignored intangible things which are harder to measure and quantify. Ultimately losing the war.
So taken on its own there is no one accurate measure of how a war is going. The measure of Combat Effectiveness very much depends on the type of military formation you're trying to assess. For example a tank battalion which has not seen a single one of its troops killed, wounded or captured yet has lost all of its tanks is going to be completely ineffective in combat.
Although they like to give them incredibly elaborate names which wildly overstate their capacity. Hamas forces are really limited to combat infantry. This makes the Combat Effectiveness of each division a less accurate measure. As people can easily switch between infantry roles and formations can be easily reformed and reshaped. So while Hamas may have lost half of 10 of its 24 battalions in the North within a short pause they can quickly reform the 10 ineffective battalions into 5 effective battalions. Leaving them with 19 battalions over all.
Under international pressure Israel was forced to hand Hamas exactly that short pause to reform and reorganise. On November 24th (24/11/23) a ceasefire was declared. Initially this was intended to last for three days but ended up being extended until December 1st (1/12/23). During that time Hamas released 81 Israeli civilian hostages in exchange for 210 Hamas combatants legally held in Israeli prisons. Separetely but alongside that agreement Hamas also released 21 other non-Israel hostages, receiving nothing in return.
Under the current Biden Regime the US position on Hamas' attack on Israel has been remarkably, extremely close to the position of Hamas. Jews and particularly Israeli Jews are a race of sub-human demons who have no right not to be treated in this way. So should immediately surrender to Hamas by giving Hamas exactly what it wants in return for allowing Hamas to torture the nation as a whole in hope of one day getting some of its hostages released. Negotiations over the release of the mere remains of one Israeli hostage, Hadar Goldin, are currently in their tenth year.
However under the Biden Regime the US also assessed that these demon Jews have been driven mad by rage. So would need to be allowed to conduct a small, limited military operation against the Gaza Strip in order sate their bloodlust before they could be forced to meekly and obediently surrender to Hamas.
Really since it took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 Hamas has been indiscriminately firing rocket artillery against civilian targets in Israel. Each round of rocket artillery fired representing an individual War Crime, contrary to Article 3 of the 4th Geneva Convention of 1949. Hamas has concentrated the bulk of its military forces in the North of the Gaza Strip as, being closer, it is easier for them to fire rocket artillery at Central Israel, key cities such as Jerusalem and the capital Tel Aviv.
The North of the Gaza Strip is also contains to Gaza City, the nominal capital of the enclave. Home to Infrastructure of State such as the Parliament building and Palace of Justice courthouse complex.
Operating under constant fear that the US under the current Biden Regime would force it to surrender at any time, the US warships in the Mediterranean Sea and the US drones flying over the Gaza Strip seem more aimed at Israel than anyone else, Israel chose to launch its ground operations in the North of the Gaza Strip first. Thinking this gave it the best chance of doing the most damage to Hamas as quickly as possible.
I though have never found that to be a particularly useful way to think about the Gaza Strip. In terms of area the Gaza Strip is only around 360km² (215miles²). Compared to Britain's capital city London which covers some 1,500km² (600miles²). So rather than thinking of the Gaza Strip as almost a country made up of multiple battlespaces it is more appropriate to think of its a single battlespace. As the Iraqi city of Mosul was thought of as single battlespace during that much talked about 2016/17 Battle of Mosul.
So although Hamas has concentrated the bulk of military forces in the North of the Gaza Strip and Gaza's Infrastructure of State are located in Gaza City. It actually has military forces located across the Gaza Strip. Hamas' true seat of power, its Castle Keep if you like, is actually beneath the Gaza Strip. The vast 480km (300 mile) network of tunnels and bunkers known as the Gaza Metro.
From a purely military perspective you would want to attack the entire Gaza Strip as a single battlespace from as many directions as possible. The key mistake the US made in the Battle of Mosul was only attacking from the East. Thinking it would prompt the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to flee West.
The only reason you would divide the Gaza Strip into different battlespaces would be for humanitarian reasons. Undermining your military objectives in order to minimise the impact on civilians. Something no Western military, such as those in the NATO alliance, would ever contemplate doing.
As I appreciate the IDF's unparelleled attempts to minimise civilian casualties. Ideally what I would have done is divide the Gaza Strip into three, possibly four, zones. I would then attack the most southerly zone first making it the Combat Zone. Then once the IDF had taken control of it establish it as a Humanitarian Bridgehead where civilians could be provided with humanitarian aid. I would then advance the Combat Zone and then Humanitarian Zone North. Leaving the northern Gaza Strip, the area around Gaza City, as the last area to become a Combat Zone.
The US pressure on Israel under the Biden Regime has made that impossible. Forcing the IDF to start its ground operations in the North of the Gaza Strip. Leaving us unable to establish it as a Humanitarian Bridgehead as the border crossings needed to deliver humanitarian aid are at the opposite end of the Gaza Strip.
The ceasefire which Israel more-or-less had imposed on it has made the situation even worse. It has allowed Hamas to reform and regroup in the North. Meaning that what was a mopping up operation on November 24th (24/12/23) has now shifted back into more of a combat operation. There's absolutely no possibility that Hamas will be able to reverse its losses in the North. It's now just going to take a little bit longer to completely defeat them in the North and return the area to being a Non-Combat Zone.
At the same time the pressure the US under the current Biden Regime is placing on Israel has forced it to expand its ground operations into other areas of the Gaza Strip. Meaning that there are now other Combat Zones alongside the Combat Zone in the North. Risking all of the Gaza Strip becoming a Combat Zone. Something which is great from a military perspective but terrible from a humanitarian one.
The IDF launched the second phase of its ground element of its counter-offensive on December 3rd (3/12/23). Focusing on Khan Younis, arguably the Gaza Strips's second city, located roughly 6km (3.5 miles) from the Rafah Border Crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt and roughly 6km (3.5 miles) from the Gaza Strip's border with Israel.
The IDF very quickly advanced on and surrounded Khan Younis. They then advanced into the city from multiple directions taking control of the heart of the city by December 5th (5/12/23). Fighting continues within the city as the IDF continue to attempt remove Hamas and allied groups and take full control.
Obviously the IDF knew that the ceasefire was coming. It was actually supposed to start on November 22nd (22/11/23) before being delayed for two days. So the IDF were able to factor it into their planning. Declining to attack Hamas final defensive positions in the Beit Hanoun, the Jabliya Refugee Camp and the Shejayia district of Gaza City. Instead choosing to coordinate those attacks with the attack on Khan Younis in order to maximise the pressure on and confusion experienced by Hamas.
Certainly since it became the Governing Authority in the Gaza Strip in 2007 Hamas' strategy has centred around Atrocity Propaganda. It deeply embeds itself in the civilian population in order to maximise the number of civilian casualties in any conflict with Israel. The thinking being that this will generate outrage which can be translated into pressure on Israel to stop the fighting.
So alongside the US under the current Biden Regime Hamas has been thinking that it merely needs to wait out the IDF's counter-offensive in its underground tunnel and bunker network. Then when either the demon Jews bloodlust has been sated or international pressure has become too great Israel will be forced into a ceasefire. Meekly surrendering to Hamas by giving it is secondary aspiration in attacking Israel. Giving Hamas exactly what it wants in return for allowing Hamas to torture the nation as a whole in hope of one day getting some of its hostages released.
With Hamas not being able to force Israel into extending the ceasefire they seem to have started to lose faith in this plan. Instead emerging from their tunnels and bunkers. Leading to much fiercer fighting being seen both in Khan Younis and the Combat Zone in the North. Although it might seem strange. Once you've decided to go to war or had the decision to go to war forced upon you, as has happened to Israel here. Then you actually want to see fierce fighting. If you're not able to see you enemy immediately surrendering.
On December 1st (1/12/23), prior to launching its operations in Khan Younis, the IDF dropped leaflets over the city. Guiding residents to an online map which divided the city up into very small segments. The map is to be updated showing the exact areas that civilians should avoid as combat will be taking place.
The IDF has described this online map as a; "Red Alert System." Inviting comparisons with the Red Alert cellphone app Israel uses to warn its citizens about incoming rocket artillery fire, primarily from Hamas in Gaza. The Israel Red Alert app is powered by its Iron Dome radar system. A system which is unparalled in its accuracy being able to pinpoint projectile launches, flightpaths and landing sites in level of detail used in the online map.
The COP28 Climate Change Summit has been taking place in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from November 30th (30/11/23) until its scheduled end on December 12th (12/12/23). Last year's COP27 Summit was held in Egypt. Specifically in the Sinai Peninsula, right on the border with Israel. Many of the security elements for that summit are now very active.
How you predict the weather is always huge part of monitoring Climate Change. It was a particular focus at COP27 and its efforts to tackle Loss & Damage. Many developing nations don't actually know how their climate is changing as they don't have accurate weather records. Being able to predict Loss & Damage is the best way of being able to avoid it. The main way to forecast and record weather is by using radar. The same radar that is used in Iron Dome.
These discussions were very nearly dramatically disrupted at COP27. When Ukrainian Nazis fired a rocket at Polish Nazis. Triggering something of an international competition of radar based rocket tracking technology. Almost to the minute that happened there was the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PiJ) rocket which misfired and hit the Al-Alhi Hospital on October 18th (18/10/23).
Having lost the competition it started over radar based tracking technology the US has been pressuring Israel to provide Ukraine's Nazis with Iron Dome. Israel hasn't gone that far but it has shared some of technology behind the Red Alert app. In the short skirmish between Israel and PiJ in Gaza back in May 2023 Israel discovered the Red Alert app suddenly wasn't working as well as it did before the technology was shared with the Ukraine's Nazis. As a result the IDF is not publishing details of Iron Dome's performance during the conflict.
There is also an online mapping site called Wikimapia which is much more accurate than Google maps. Not least because it allows users to edit the maps down to the level of detail used in the IDF's online map of Khan Younis. Wikimapia was essential to my work in combating ISIL and associated groups. Unfortunately it's based in Russia. So US sanctions on Russia in the run-up to the 2016 US Elections gradually left it inaccessible. An example of US attacks on Russia aiding ISIL and associated groups.
Obviously the unreliability of the Internet in the Gaza Strip at the moment has led some to question how useful the IDF's interactive map will be. However it certainly better than nothing. Going far, far beyond the IDF's obligations under actual International Humanitarian Law. With Israel providing Palestinian civilians with air raid warnings. While Hamas, as the Governing Authority, isn't even providing Palestinian civilians with bomb shelters.
On or around December 3rd (3/12/23) the IDF put about a story that it was planning to flood Hamas vast network of tunnels and bunkers with sea water. Something COP27 host Egypt did with Hamas smuggling tunnels back in 2013. The problem with using seawater is that it's salty, causing Salination of the soil. Destroying that soil as potential farmland.
It may surprise many to learn that Environmental Damage is actually a War Crime. Under Customary Laws Of War which far pre-date any efforts to combat Climate Change. The reason most people don't know this is that its often the first Law of War that gets voided by the principle Military Exigency
Salination is a really common example of Loss & Damage. One which was really in focus at COP27. A topic I've still not been able to cover even as COP28 draws to a close. Due to certain elements deciding to dedicate all of 2023 to wasting my time and losing.
On December 6th (6/12/23) the IDF dropped more leaflets over Khan Younis. These leaflets quoted the Qu'ran's reference to Noah's biblical flood. Hamas' "Operation: Al Aqsa Flood" seems to have been inspired to what would have been Israel's 2023 Eurovision Song Contest entry. The Noah referencing; "Unicorn" by Noa Kirel. Obviously some took this as a reference to the IDF's supposed plan to flood Hamas' tunnel and bunker network.
Noah's flood is referenced in the 29th chapter of the Qu'ran. Which is often referred to as; "The Spider." There is a coarse Australian slang term for wasting time; "F*cking Spiders."
So, again. These really aren't the actions of the military of a race of subhuman demons traumatised and driven mad by bloodlust and revenge. These are the actions of a highly professional military that is well within its comfort zone, calmly and methodically working towards its legitimate objectives. With quite a fair bit of style too.
Even during the ceasefire, long before it launched the second phase of the ground element of its counter-offensive, the IDF designated a Safe-Zone for Palestinians civilians. In the Al-Mawasi area on the coast, around 4km (2.5 miles) West of Khan Younis.
As a former Bedouin traveller camp Mawasi has been attacked as being a barren wasteland, devoid of civilian infrastructure. The problem is that Hamas' Atrocity Propaganda strategy has them so deeply embedded in the civilian population that the only places where there aren't Hamas positions which need to be attacked are areas without any civilian infrastructure.
It really should be incredibly easy for international aid agencies like the ICRC, the UN and others to provide temporary civilian infrastructure at al-Mawasi. They are well used to working in the aftermath of natural disasters where the civilian infrastructure has been destroyed.
However the international aid agencies are refusing to provide humanitarian aid in al-Mawasi. Instead they are keeping the humanitarian aid which is being delivered in areas like Khan Younis. In an effort to keep civilians in those areas.
This is no longer a matter of poor planning or organisation. This is international aid agencies like the ICRC and the UN criminally conspiring with Hamas and its Atrocity Propaganda strategy by trying to kill the maximum number of Palestinian civilians possible.
19:06 on 11/12/23 (UK date).
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