On Saturday October 7th 2023 (7/10/23) the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) launched a surprise and unprovoked attack from the Gaza Strip against Israel. Contrary to Hamas propaganda which, sadly, is often reported as fact in the Western media the Gaza Strip is not under Israeli occupation. It has not been under Israeli occupation since 2005.
Hamas' declaration of war against Israel saw the group temporarily seize control of some 480km² (260 miles²) of Israeli territory bordering the Gaza Strip. In that area Hamas set about systematically killing large numbers of people it believed to be Jews.
Prima facie (at first sight) this clearly constitutes multiple offences of the Crime Against Humanity of; "Murder," contrary to Article 7.1(a) of The Rome Statute of 1998. Prima facie it also seems to constitute multiple offences the Crimes Against Humanity of; "Extermination" or; "Genocide" with the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to Articles 7.1(b)(h) of the Rome Statute of 1998.
The wanton and sadistic violence with which Hamas carried out its killings makes it impossible to give an exact deathtoll at this time. However the current estimate is that Hamas exterminated 1,200 people they believed to be Jews. Simply because Hamas believed them to be Jews.
Hamas also took a very large number of people it believed to be Jews hostage, both civilians and members of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). At the very least, prima facie, each one of the hostages taken constitutes the Crimes Against Humanity of; "Imprisonment," "Enforced Disappearance" and; "Other Inhumane Acts [...] Causing Serious Injury to Body or to Mental or Physical Health." With the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to Article 7.1(e)(i)(k)(h) of the Rome Statute of 1998.
Again the gruesome violence with which Hamas committed its atrocities makes it impossible to give an exact total of the number of hostages taken at this time. However the current estimate is 240. So 960 Individual, Ongoing, Crimes Against Humanity.
Immediately Israel launched a counter-offensive in response to Hamas' declaration of war. On October 28th (28/10/23) this Israeli counter-offensive expanded to include IDF ground operations within the Gaza Strip.
On November 24th (24/11/23) a temporary ceasefire was agreed. In order to allow Hamas to release the female and child civilian hostages it was holding. In exchange for humanitarian aid and the release of Hamas' combatants being legally held in Israeli prisons. The agreed rate was 1 hostage for 30 Hamas prisoners. The ceasefire ran alongside Hamas unilaterally releasing other hostages, from Russia and Thailand, without receiving and concession in return.
It only took until the second day of the ceasefire for Hamas to start violating its terms. On Saturday (25/11/23) it refused to make the agreed hostages available at the agreed time. Instead attempting to leverage them for further concessions. An effort it failed at.
Hamas continued to violate the ceasefire at every opportunity. Failing to release the agreed hostages and attempting to have hostages released under the separate agreements counted as part of the ceasefire agreement. Hamas also executed hostages. 21 confirmed so far, 26 suspected.
On Thursday (30/11/23) Hamas failed to provide a list of hostages to be released in order for the ceasefire to be extended for a further day. Two hours before the ceasefire was set to expire on Friday (1/12/23) Hamas resumed indiscriminate rocket artillery fire against civilian targets in Israel. War Crimes contrary to Article 3 of The 4th Geneva Convention (1949).
As a result of Hamas' actions the ceasefire came to an end.
The ground element of the IDF's counter-offensive involved dividing the Gaza Strip into two zones. A Combat Zone in the North and a Non-Combat Zone in the South. In the week prior to the ceasefire going into effect the IDF had all but defeated Hamas in the Combat Zone in the North. Hamas had collapsed as a military force leaving the IDF with mopping up operations, the task of fully securing the area under its control.
Once the IDF had completed those mopping up operations there was always going to be a ceasefire of sorts. As the IDF rotated its troops and repositioned its forces in preparation for the next phase of its counter-offensive.
So if Hamas' release of hostages had been linked only to a ceasefire, as its release of Russian and Thai hostages was. Then Israel would have secured the release of 81 hostages in return for nothing more than something it was going to do anyway.
Unfortunately the ceasefire agreement also included the release of Hamas combatants. This was Hamas' secondary aspiration in launching its war. That the World would leap to its aid and impose a ceasefire on Israel. Allowing Hamas to collectively torture the Israeli population with an agonising process in which all Hamas combatants are released in exchange for some of the hostages Hamas had seized. The torturous negotiations over Hamas' release of the remains of Hadar Goldin are currently in their tenth year.
So in agreeing to the exchange of Hamas combatants for hostages alongside a ceasefire Israel was giving Hamas its secondary aspiration. Handing it victory. Something which those who fought against Hamas in the early days of its war might be inclined to take as a personal insult.
Giving Hamas any sense of victory, no matter how small, also gives it a sense of confidence. Hamas' primary aspiration in launching its war was that the Muslim world would rush to its aid on the battlefield and wipe Israel from existence in a recreation of the 1973 War. Despite the fact that not only did Israel face a far large force that Hamas would be able to raise today it won the 1973 War decisively and comprehensively.
So, clearly, anything which adds to Hamas' delusional sense of confidence is just really cruel on them. Atrocity Propaganda is central to Hamas' military strategy. So any confidence it is given to fight on is giving Hamas confidence to slaughter very large numbers of Palestinian civilians. Palestinian civilians who have already suffered greatly during Hamas' 16 years in control of the Gaza Strip.
Lead amongst those putting pressure on Israel to hand Hamas its secondary aspiration has been the US, under The Biden Regime.
The US Biden Regime seems to have a very strange view of Jews and Israel. They seem to see them as some sort of devils who exist only to enslave the true Master Race. This nation of demons was, apparently, driven mad with vengeance on October 7th (7/10/23). So they need to satisfy their bloodlust with enough to make their Matzos before they can be obediently forced to bow down to the heroes of Hamas and hand it its secondary aspiration.
I have a very different view of Jews and the IDF in particular.
In immediate response to Hamas' declaration of war the IDF was forced to call 360,000 reservists into fulltime military service. Those reservists immediately started a nationwide moustache growing competition. Something which is a major plot point of the 2008 US TV mini-series; "Generation Kill."
Generation Kill is an adaptation of the book by journalist Evan Wright about his time embedded with the US Marine Corps' 1st Reconnaissance Battalion during the 2003 Invasion of Iraq. It was adapted by David Simon of; "The Wire" fame before Trump Derangement Syndrome took hold of him.
David Simon was an elite US Reconnaissance Marine during the Second Indochina War, or the Vietnam War. A handful of the actors in Generation Kill aren't actors at all. They're US Reconnaissance Marines playing the roles they played in the 2003 Invasion of Iraq.
So while Generation Kill is an entertainment TV show rather than a documentary. It is one of the more realistic TV dramas about war that you'll see. In the sense that there are no great battles or stories of medal winning heroism. It's really just a group of men bitching, moaning and swearing their way through a very heavily armed roadtrip across Iraq.
One of the main characters is Staff Sergeant Brad "Iceman" Colbert. At one point it's claimed that he's Jewish. Although it's never made clear whether that's actually true or whether they're just trying to antagonise the Battalion's Protestant Christian Chaplin. Who they've been provided with instead of food and ammunition.
Around the time that Generation Kill was in development I was, I suppose, an approved human for a dog named; "Screwby-Ru" or, simply; "Screwby" for short. A joke which was continued in; "Euphoria," a US remake of an Israeli show.
Unbeknownst to us at the time. "Screwby" is actual US Marine Corp slang. For something which is messed up, not quite right or just a bit off. A term which seemed to rather suit a strange little rescue dog who didn't even know how to bark or bite.
So there are quite a few references to me in Generation Kill. Particularly in Episode 3; "Screwby." It uses the title track from Johnny Cash's portentous album; "American IV: The Man Comes Around" over its final scene.
I like to think I returned the compliment. Before I got banned from Twitter I used to use a little Ninja as my avatar. A little reference to the Screwby episode of Generation Kill. A really cleaned up version, obviously.
As a reconnaissance battalion the Marines in Generation Kill all travel around in lightly armoured Humvees. Something they complain about constantly.
So within, I think, the first week of its counter-offensive the IDF put on a big display to keep the foreign media entertained. Using young, attractive female conscripts to drive lightly armoured Humvees around. In a recreation of the opening scene of Generation Kill. These Humvees had big, phallic guns on their roofs. Although it's hard to tell exactly type of gun, as they were all covered by condom-like wrappers.
So from the very start of its counter-offensive not only was the IDF making jokes. They were making good jokes!
Those are not the actions of a group of devils and demons driven mad by vengeance and bloodlust. Those are the actions of a highly professional military calmly and methodically working towards clear objectives. As those objectives are essential to their survival they will not be stopped from achieving them.
So I'm not too concerned about Hamas being allowed to think it has achieved victory in its secondary aspiration. Although giving Hamas any sense of confidence will only encourage it to fight on. Fight on by maximising the suffering to Palestinian civilians.
My much more serious concern is the inclusion of humanitarian aid in the ceasefire agreement. Particularly the way that humanitarian aid is being delivered. To the South of the Gaza Strip via The Rafah Crossing from Egypt.
In its early attempts to pressure Israel to simply surrender to Hamas, rather than launching the ground element of its counter-offensive. The US made much reference to the 2016/17 Battle of Mosul. No doubt still traumatised by what a mess it made of the Battle of Mosul. The former Biden Regime fell very early on in that battle.
What the US seems to have forgotten is that I, or at least my desk, also fought in the Battle of Mosul. Largely trying to overcome what a mess the US was making of it. So it is a topic I'd be happy to talk discreetly and directly to the IDF about in a great amount of detail. Although the fact I was working alongside at least one of the Hezbollahs at the time makes that rather awkward for all concerned.
You can almost think of the Iraqi city of Mosul as two cities in one. On the West bank of the Tigris River you have the old city. Made up of tightly packed ancient buildings with streets too narrow for any sort of motor vehicle, let alone armoured vehicles, to use. Then on the East bank of the Tigris you have the new city. A modern city with open spaces and multi-lane highways.
The main mistake the US made in the Battle of Mosul was thinking that it could enter into some sort of agreement with The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). So if the anti-ISIL coalition forces began to push gently against the Eastern side of Mosul. Then ISIL would politely leave through the Western side. Regrouping in Syria.
This saw the US drag everyone into ISIL's trap. Of taking hostages from the Eastern side of Mosul and consolidating themselves in the Western side of Mosul. Establishing themselves in a sort of Castle Keep from where they were able to drag out the battle into months of some of the most brutal urban warfare anyone has ever seen.
What the US should have done is to attack Mosul from multiple directions at the same time. With the main focus being on the Western side of the city. In order to force ISIL from its Castle Keep and into the harder to defend Eastern side of the city.
Ideally at the same time opening Humanitarian Corridors in the Eastern side of the city, to allow civilians to escape. Although it always annoys me when politicians call for; "Humanitarian Corridors" not realising that establishing them involves ground troops having to fight to take full control of the area.
All standing armies plan and train. This is particularly true of the Israel-Palestine Conflict where there is the concept of; "The War Between The Wars." Throughout its rule over the Gaza Strip Hamas has indiscriminately fired rocket artillery at Israeli civilian targets. It has focused its effort on the North of the Gaza Strip as this makes it easier to target key cities in the centre of Israel such as Jerusalem and the capital Tel Aviv.
So one of the plans the IDF has long had on the shelf is to establish a demilitariesed Buffer-Zone in the North of the Gaza Strip.
Clearly the current US Biden Regime views Israel as a nation of devils and demons driven mad by vengeance and bloodlust. When it became clear to the Biden Regime that it wasn't going to be able to pressure Israel into meekly surrendering to Hamas it agreed to the IDF launching a ground operation inspired by the Northern Buffer-Zone plan. Thinking that would be enough to sate Israel's bloodlust and it could then be forced to meekly surrender to Hamas.
Now the ground element of the IDF's counter-offensive is underway I suppose I'm able to speak more freely about what I would have done instead.
Ideally I would have established Egypt's Sinai Peninsula as a Humanitarian Safe-Zone. Essentially a refugee camp where Palestinians were able to receive whatever humanitarian assistance they required after being freed from Hamas. After going through the necessary filtration processes at the border.
Having fought battles in Palestinian refugee camps in Syria before I am, obviously, aware of the longstanding issues surrounding the; "Palestinian Right of Return." However I genuinely do not think there is any desire on Israel's part to make the situation permanent. There is certainly enough international opposition, myself included, to silence any Israeli factions which do want to make it permanent.
Failing that I would divide the Gaza Strip into three, possibly four, zones. Running South to North. One at a time I would then designate these zones as the Combat Zone. With the others being designated as Non-Combat Zones.
I would have started with the South Zone on the Egyptian border as the first Combat Zone. Once it had been cleared it would then be established as a Humanitarian Bridgehead. Where Palestinians were able to receive whatever humanitarian assistance they required after being freed from Hamas. After going through the necessary filtration processes at the boundry with the zone to its North. I would then progress North until all the zones have been cleared.
Under pressure from the US Biden Regime the IDF has started doing this, only in reverse. As the Combat Zone shifts this creates the problem of trying to get Palestinians Civilians to move into the new Non-Combat Zone without that Humanitarian Bridgehead having being established.
The inclusion of Humanitarian Aid in the ceasefire agreement worsens that problem. Amassing that Humanitarian Aid and therefore Palestinian civilians in an area which, inevitably, become a Combat Zone. All but guaranteeing a bloodbath of a very large number of Palestinian civilians.
Obviously I hope that certain people learn to obey their superiors. So that bloodbath does not come to pass. It can be very easily avoided.
However if this planned bloodbath of Palestinian civilians does happen. Then I will have absolutely no problem making sure everyone knows exactly who is responsible.
19:00 on 2/12/13 (UK date).
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