Operation: Saxon Needles; Month 3, Week 4, Day 3.

On Saturday October 7th (7/10/23) the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) launched a surprise attack against Israel from the Gaza Strip. Under the cover of some 3,000 rockets this attack saw Hamas temporarily take control of 480km² (260miles²) of Israeli territory alongside the Gaza Strip.

Within that area Hamas set about systematically slaughtering a large number of they believed to be Jews. Simply because they believed them to be Jews. 

At first sight (prima facie) this constitutes multiple offences of the Crime Against Humanity of; "Murder" contrary to Article 7.1(a) of The Rome Statute of 1998. Prima facie it also constitutes the Crime Against Humanity of; "Extermination" commonly referred to as; "Genocide" with the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to articles 7.1(b)(h) of the Rome Statute.

Hamas also took hostage a large number of people, both civilian and military, which it believed to be Jews. Prima facie each hostage taken constitutes the multiple Crimes Against Humanity of; "Imprisonment," "Forced Displacement" and "Other Inhumane Acts [...] Causing Serious Injury to Body or to Physical or Mental Health." With the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to Article 7.1(e)(i)(k)(h) of the Rome Statute.

Following a humiliatingly long period of trying to ignore the fact. International bodies such as the United Nations Entity For Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women) and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) have now acknowledged that Hamas also committed widespread and systematic acts of; "Rape and/or Sexual Violence." Further Crimes Against Humanity contrary to Article 7.1(g) of the Rome Statute.

In committing its crimes Hamas used some of the most wanton and horrific violence ever seen. Going to great lengths to mutilate the corpses of those it killed. Seemingly in an attempt to maximise the suffering of their relatives individually and nation of Israel collectively. By violating a key tenet of Jewish religious law. That if a body is less then whole then it cannot be returned to God through Jewish mourning rites. As a result it is still impossible to give an accurate number of those killed on October 7th (7/10/23).

In a further effort to cause maximum suffering Hamas has still not provided a comprehensive list of the hostages it has taken. Each failure to do, prima facie, represents a War Crime contrary to Article 25 of the Geneva Convention of 1949. Hamas certainly hasn't allowed the International Committee of the Red Cross/Crescent (ICRC) to visit them, let alone render them Humanitarian Aid. Further War Crimes, contrary to Article 140 of the 1949 Geneva Convention.

Not that the ICRC has expressed any interest in contacting the hostages or providing them with any sort of aid. Even going so far as to refuse to accept deliveries of vital medicines for the hostages. Let alone ask Hamas to allow it to deliver it to the hostages. The rendering of medical aid to prisoners in conflict really being the ICRC's core, founding function under International Humanitarian Law.

Hamas' failure to provide a comprehensive list of the hostages it holds along with its wanton and gruesome violence also makes it impossible to give an exact number of those kidnapped on October 7th (7/10/23). However the current estimate is that Hamas and associated groups are still holding 121 live hostages. Constituting 484 Individual, Ongoing Crimes Against Humanity.

The difficulties of calculating the number of hostages taken are highlighted by the case of Gadi Haggai. A US-Israeli dual-national who was in the Nahal Oz Kibbutz on October 7th (7/10/23).

In October 1986 and Israeli warplane was conducting airstrikes against the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) in Maghdouche in Lebanon when it crashed. The pilot, Yishai Aviram, was quickly rescued by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). However the plane's weapons officer, Ron Arad, was captured by the Amal Movement. It's believed he was then handed to the Lebanese Hezbollah and then the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC). Thirty seven years later it is still not known whether Ron Arad is alive or dead. 

In an effort to spare the families of the October 7th victims the trauma and uncertainly experienced by Ron Arad's family Israel quickly established panels of medical experts. Their task is to examine the footage and other evidence from October 7th (7/10/23) to determine those who were taken alive by Hamas and those who were killed on the day only for their corpses to be taken hostage by Hamas.

Last Friday (22/12/23) that panel declared that Gadi Haggai had been killed on October 7th (7/10/23). Each individual set of human remains that Hamas fails to return constitutes, prima facie, a War Crime, contrary to Article 16 of the 1949 Geneva Convention.

In launching its attacks on October 7th (7/10/23) Hamas seems to have had two main aspirations. The first being that this would be the start of the war which wipes Israel from the map. Short of that Hamas' secondary aspiration was that Israel would be forced into long, torturous, negotiations. Negotiations which would see all Hamas combatants held in Israeli prisons released in return for some vague promise that some of the Israeli hostages might be released.

In the summer of 2014 Hamas and the IDF fought a short skirmish in the Gaza Strip. During the course of this fighting two IDF solidiers, Oran Shaul and Hadar Goldin, were killed by Hamas and their bodies taken hostage. For nearly 10 years Hamas has been trying to ransom those two sets of human remains. The Shaul and Goldin families can only console themselves with the fact they're in a slightly better position than Ron Arad's family. At least they know their loved ones are dead.

Almost immediately as Hamas attacked the IDF launched a counter-offensive. This included airstrikes against military targets within the Gaza Strip. On October 28th (28/10/23) this counter-offensive expanded to include IDF ground operations within the Gaza Strip.

This initial phase of the IDF's ground operations saw them divide the Gaza Strip into two zones, broadly along the Wadi Gaza river. The southern Non-Combat Zone and the northern Combat Zone. Instructing and assisting civilians to move out of the Combat Zone and into the Non-Combat Zone.

By around November 13th (13/11/23) it seemed that the IDF had all but defeated Hamas in the Combat Zone in the North. Advancing from Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun it had encircled and entered Gaza City, the main city in the Combat Zone. Hamas' main defensive positions in the Jabaliya and Shati districts of Gaza City had been overrun and it was assessed that 10 of Hamas' 24 battalions in the Combat Zone had lost Combat Effectiveness.

This left Hamas in control of the Shejaiya, Rimal, Tuffah and Daraj districts of Gaza City. Along with Jabaliya and the accompanying Jabaliya Refugee Camp, a city sitting just 4km (2.4 miles) from Gaza City. Although given how densely populated the Gaza Strip is all of the urban areas do tend to blur into one.

Beyond those areas IDF operations in the Northern Combat Zone had moved from combat to mopping up operations. That is to say indentifying remaining Hamas fighters and capturing or, frankly, killing them. Along with dismantling Hamas infrastructure such as its weapons stores, bases and underground tunnels. 

On November 24th (24/11/23) it looked as though Hamas may be successful in its secondary aspiration. A ceasefire was declared as Israel exchanged Hamas combatants held in Israeli prisons for civilian hostages held by Hamas. This ceasefire was extended several times with 81 Israeli civilian hostages being exchanged for 210 Hamas combatants. Alongside but separate from that agreement Hamas also released 21 non-Israeli civilian hostages, without obtaining any concession in return.

That ceasefire brokedown on December 1st (1/12/23). With both Hamas and then the IDF resuming airstrikes and artillery fire.

On December 3rd (3/12/23) the IDF launched a new phase of its ground operations. Attacking the Rimal and Shejaiya districts of Gaza City along with Jabaliya and Jabaliya Refugee Camp. This was closely coordinated with ground operations against Khan Younis, essentially the Gaza Strip's second city, which is located on the Southern Zone around 6km (3.5 miles) North of the Rafah Border Crossing with Egypt.

On December 19th (19/12/23) the IDF completed the combat phase of its operation in Jabaliya and the Jabaliya Refugee Camp (est. 1948). On December 21st (21/12/23) the IDF completed the combat phase of its operation in the Shejaiya district of Gaza City. In both Jabaliya and its refugee camp and the Shejaiyia district the IDF moved onto mopping up operations.

This comes after the IDF completed the mopping up phases of its operations in Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun on December 16th (16/12/23)and December 18th (18/12/23). In those areas the IDF's operations have progressed to a lower intensity phase. In which they simply hold the areas they have gained and secured.

In many ways this type of lower intensity holding operation can be more deadly than combat operations. While killing people is always a big part of war in conventional warfare it is really only a tool. The main objective is to secure territory. Killing is simply one of the most effective ways to either remove your enemy from territory or prevent your enemy from removing you from territory.

This is something we've seen in the combat phases of the IDF's ground operations in the North of the Gaza Strip. Hamas would establish fighting positions, often in civilian buildings, then attack IDF troops in an effort to keep them away from those fighting positions.

Now Hamas has lost all of its territory in Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun and most of its territory in Jabaliya and Gaza City it has shifted more towards Guerrilla warfare. In this type of warfare killing is no longer a tool, it is the main objective. It doesn't matter to Hamas is the IDF are quickly able to overrun a position Hamas has fired from as long as Hamas has been able to kill IDF troops with that fire.

This shift has been reflected in the number of IDF troops killed. Back on December 11th (11/12/23) the number of IDF troops killed since October 8th (8/10/23) stood at 103, including 20 who were killed in friendly fire incidents and accidents. Between December 12th (12/12/23) and December 25th (25/12/23) 49 IDF troops were killed in the Gaza Strip.

Those figures include the one and two individual fatalities which are inevitable in conventional battle. However they also include large single incidents. Such as the December 12th (12/12/23) ambush in Shejaiya in which 9 IDF troops were killed. Along with the 5 killed and two seriously wounded in a lucky hit from an Anti-Tank missile on their armoured vehicle on December 24th (24/12/23).

The IDF does seem to understand that in order to protect its troops during these holding operations it needs to increase its tempo to establish full control over all of the Gaza Strip. On December 21st (21/12/23) it expanded combat operations from Rimal into the Tuffah and Daraj districts of Gaza City expanding to the area between the South of Gaza City and Wadi Gaza. On December 23rd (23/12/23) the IDF conducted airstrikes in Deir al-Balah, South of Wadi Gaza. IDF ground operations now appear to have expanded South of Wadi Gaza into the centre of the Gaza Strip with 4 IDF troops being killed in the area on December 24th (24/12/23).

There are also strong indications that the IDF intends to expand its ground combat operations beyond Khan Younis in the South. On December 15th (15/12/23) it conducted its first airstrikes in the Philadelphi Corridor, a buffer-zone running the length of the Egypt/Gaza Strip border which is currently patrolled by Egyptian forces with Israel's permission. On December 23rd (23/12/23) Israel advised Egypt to withdraw its forces from the Philadelphi Corridor as the IDF could no longer guarantee their safety.

Meanwhile the IDF's ground combat operations in Khan Younis continue. Attacking from multiple directions the IDF were able to overrun Hamas main defences in the city within three days. After just eight days of fighting the IDF's control of the centre of the city was such that its Chief-of-Staff, Herzi Halevi, was able to hold meetings with ground commanders there on December 11th (11/12/23).

Since then the IDF have been engaging the in the heavy, grinding, combat of clearing the city house-by-house, street-by-street all while at risk of ambush by Hamas. The IDF estimate that four of Hamas' seven battalion commanders in Khan Younis have now been killed.

The IDF has also been able to move onto some limited mopping up operations in Khan Younis. Such as destroying the home of Mohammed Deif - the head of Hamas' Qassam Brigades - on December 23rd (23/12/23). The IDF were even able to take journalists on the tour of the site of the ruins of the home of Yahya Sinwar - Hamas's head within the Gaza Strip - which had been captured on December 6th (6/12/23) and then destroyed.

As the IDF's operations have shifted the nature of the airstrikes it has been conducting has evolved. Initially these were focused on so-called; "Suppressive Fire" destroying Hamas military assets within the Gaza Strip to prevent those military assets being used in the invasion of Israel.

With Hamas having been expelled from Israel the airstrikes then shifted to more strategic objectives. Such as killing senior Hamas commanders and destroying Hamas' defences ahead of the ground operation. Once the ground operation had begun air operations shifted again to focus, primarily, on providing close air support to troops on the ground.

That close air support role has continued, with the IDF averaging around 250 strikes per day. However as combat operations in the North of the Gaza Strip have largely come to an end it has shifted back to including more of a strategic element. Subhi Farwani - a key Hamas financier - was killed on December 19th (19/12/23), Bassem Ghaben - Hamas director of the Karem Shalom border crossing - was killed on December 20th (20/12/23) and Hassan Atrash - a key Hamas weapons smuggler - was killed on December 23rd (23/12/23). All in airstrikes in and around the southern city of Rafah.

Hamas's ability to commit the War Crimes, contrary to Article 3 of the 1949 Geneva Convention, of indiscriminately firing rocket artillery into civilian areas across Israel also seems to have been significantly reduced. 

On October 7th (7/12/23) Hamas fired some 3,000 rockets and other projectiles into Israel. Once Hamas had been expelled from Israeli territory that rocket fire dropped to an average of a 100 or so per day. Once the IDF ground operation began that average dropped again to around 30-40 per day. 

Following the resumption of fighting on December 1st (1/12/23) that figure has dropped even further. With Hamas seeming to have to forgo daily rocket fire in order to preserve its ammunition for big barrages on alternative days. Hamas now seems no longer able to do that. The last big barrage came on Saturday (23/12/23), the Jewish Sabbath. Indicating a clear religious/ethnic element to Hamas' rocket fire. Meaning that Hamas' War Crimes have to be viewed within the wider context of Crimes Against Humanity.

Despite the IDF's progress in securing areas of the Gaza Strip. There seems to be no corresponding progress from international bodies such as the United Nations (UN) and the ICRC in increasing Humanitarian Aid to Palestinian civilians within the Gaza Strip.

The UN and the ICRC are still flatly refusing to provide Humanitarian Aid to civilians in the designated Al-Marwasi Safe-Zone. Let alone attempting to establish a Humanitarian Bridgehead in either the South or the North of the Gaza Strip.

Today the UN actually ordered Israel to close the Karem Shalom border crossing to Humanitarian Aid.

18:46 on 28/12/23 (UK date).

 

Operation: Saxon Needles; Month 3, Week 3, Day 2.

On Saturday October 7th (7/10/23) the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) launched a surprise attack against Israel from the Gaza Strip. Under the cover of some 3,000 rockets this attack saw Hamas temporarily take control of 480km² (260miles²) of Israeli territory alongside the Gaza Strip.

Within that area Hamas set about systematically slaughtering a large number of they believed to be Jews. Simply because they believed them to be Jews. Something which, prima facie (at first sight) constitutes multiple offences of the Crime Against Humanity of; "Murder" contrary to Article 7.1(a) of The Rome Statute of 1998. Prima facie it also seems to constitute multiple offences of the Crime Against Humanity of; "Extermination" or; "Genocide" with the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to articles 7.1(b)(h) of the Rome Statute.

Hamas also took hostage a large number of people, both civilian and military, which it believed to be Jews. Each individual hostage taken prima facie constituting the multiple Crimes Against Humanity of; "Imprisonment," "Forced Displacement" and "Other Inhumane Acts [...]Causing Serious Injury to Body or to Physical or Mental Health." With the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to Article 7.1(e)(i)(k)(h) of the Rome Statute.

While it took them an embarrassingly long time to do so. International bodies such as the United Nations Entity For Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women) and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) have now acknowledged that Hamas also committed widespread and systematic acts of; "Rape and/or Sexual Violence." Further Crimes Against Humanity contrary to Article 7.1(g) of the Rome Statute.

In committing its crimes Hamas used some of the most wanton and gruesome violence ever seen. Going to great lengths to mutilate the corpses of those it killed. Seemingly in an attempt to maximise the suffering of their relatives individually and nation of Israel collectively. By violating a key tenet of Jewish religious law. That if a body is less then whole then it cannot be returned to God through Jewish mourning rites. As a result it is still impossible to give an accurate number of those killed on October 7th (7/10/23).

In a further effort to cause maximum suffering Hamas has still not provided a comprehensive list of the hostages it has taken. It certainly hasn't allowed the International Committee of the Red Cross/Crescent (ICRC) to visit them, let alone render them Humanitarian Aid. Not that the ICRC has expressed any interest in doing so. 

This coupled with Hamas' wanton and gruesome violence also makes it impossible to give an exact number of those kidnapped on October 7th (7/10/23). However the current estimate is that Hamas and associated groups are still holding 125 live hostages. Constituting 375 Individual, Ongoing Crimes Against Humanity.

Almost immediately as Hamas attacked the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) launched a counter-offensive. This included airstrikes against military targets within the Gaza Strip. On October 28th (28/10) this counter-offensive expanded to include IDF ground operations within the Gaza Strip.

This initial phase of the IDF's ground operations saw them divide the Gaza Strip into two zones, broadly along the Wadi Gaza river. The southern Non-Combat Zone and the northern Combat Zone. Instructing and assisting civilians to move out of the Combat Zone and into the Non-Combat Zone.

By around November 13th (13/11/23) it seemed that the IDF had all but defeated Hamas in the Combat Zone in the North. Advancing from Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun it had encircled and entered Gaza City, the main city in the Combat Zone. Hamas' main defensive positions in the Jabaliya and Shati districts of Gaza City had been overrun and it was assessed that 10 of Hamas' 24 battalions in the Combat Zone had lost Combat Effectiveness.

This left Hamas in control of the Shejaiya, Rimal, Tuffah and Daraj districts of Gaza City. Along with Jabaliya and the accompanying Jabaliya Refugee Camp, a city sitting just 4km (2.4 miles) from Gaza City. Although given how densely populated the Gaza Strip is all of the urban areas do tend to blur into one.

Beyond those areas IDF operations in the Northern Combat Zone had moved from combat to mopping up operations. That is to say indentifying remaining Hamas fighters and capturing or, frankly, killing them. Along with dismantling Hamas infrastructure such as its weapons stores, bases and underground tunnels. 

On Sunday (17/12/23) the IDF revealed publicly the largest Hamas tunnel network it had uncovered so far. Wide enough to accommodate large vehicles like SUV's this was 50 metres/yards underground and stretched for over 4km (2.4 miles). Linking Jabaliya with the very northern tip of the Gaza Strip, just metres from the Erez Border Crossing with Israel. The IDF had actually discovered this tunnel back in early November however has only gone public with the information now as it had taken them over a month to fully clear, secure and map it.

In launching its attack on Israel on October 7th (7/12/23) Hamas had a clear aspiration. That Israel would not fight back. Instead entering into lengthy and torturous negotiations which would see all Hamas combatants legally held in Israel prisons released in return for the vague hope of some of the Israeli hostages being released. If Israel did fight back then it would be something that Hamas could wait out. The sort of short skirmish which has been seen numerous times over the years since Israel ended its occupation of the Gaza Strip back in 2005. 

Led by the US under the current Biden Regime the vaguely defined International Community's position has been alarmingly similar to that of Hamas. Jews and particularly Israelis are a race of subhuman demons that have no right not to be treated as they were on October 7th (7/12/23). So once their bloodlust had been sated in another short skirmish they could be forced into negotiations. Allowing Hamas to emerge victorious.

On November 24th (24/11/23) it looked as though Hamas may be successful in its aspiration. A ceasefire was declared as Israel exchanged Hamas combatants held in Israeli prisons for civilian hostages held by Hamas. This ceasefire was extended several times with 81 Israeli civilian hostages being exchanged for 210 Hamas combatants. Alongside but separate from that agreement Hamas also released 21 non-Israeli civilian hostages, without obtaining any concession in return.

However when that ceasefire broke down on December 1st (1/12/23) the fighting immediately resumed. Even whilst the ceasefire was in place Hamas indiscriminately fired rocket artillery into civilians areas of Israel, War Crimes contrary to Article 3 of the Fourth Geneva Convention (1949). Waiting until the official end of the ceasefire the IDF resumed its airstrikes across the Gaza Strip and its mopping up operations in the Northern Combat Zone.

On December 3rd (3/12/23) the IDF launched a new phase of its ground operations. Attacking the Rimal and Shejaiya districts of Gaza City along with Jabaliya and Jabaliya Refugee Camp. This was closely coordinated with ground operations against Khan Younis, essentially the Gaza Strip's second city, which is located on the Southern Zone around 6km (3.5 miles) North of the Rafah Border Crossing with Egypt.

Perhaps with Hamas realising that this isn't just another short skirmish it can wait out and survive. Since this new phase of the IDF's operation has begun the fighting has become much fiercer.

Atrocity Propaganda has long been a central part of Hamas' military strategy. This involves it deeply embedding itself within the civilian population. Not to prevent the IDF from attacking but to maximise the death and injury to civilians when IDF does attack. All so Hamas can scream; "Atrocity!" and try to build international pressure against Israel.

This systematic strategy by Hamas constitutes A Specific Class of War Crime known as; "Perfidy." Contrary to Article 23 of the Hague Convention (1907). Examples of Perfidy include faking or feigning Non-Combatant or Civilian Status, faking the use of the White Flag of Surrender or Truce along with faking the use of other Recognised Emblems such as those of the ICRC or the United Nations (UN).

Such is the extent of Hamas' Perfidy in the Shejaiya district of Gaza City they're talking about every third civilian building really being a Hamas Fighting Position. 

On October 1st 2017 (1/10/17) the US experienced the deadliest mass shooting in its history. When a gunman opened fire from the Mandalay Bay Hotel in Las Vegas on the Route 91 Harvest Festival being held on the Las Vegas Strip below. This occurred shortly after that much talked about 2016/17 Battle of Mosul. In no small part it was intended to illustrate how much damage one person with an automatic weapon in an elevated position can cause.

Alongside using civilian buildings Hamas is also making extensive use of ambush tactics. On December 15th (15/12/23) the IDF released the details of one such ambush it had managed to thwart. 

Hamas had hidden speakers playing recordings of children singing and playing in Hebrew. Hamas had also scattered Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) disguised as children's toys and backpacks. The idea was to trick IDF troops into thinking that it had found some of the children Hamas kidnapped on October 7th (7/10/23). Then as they rushed towards the location Hamas would remotely detonate the IED's killing the IDF troops.

On December 12th (12/12/23) the IDF found itself caught in a particularly deadly Hamas ambush in Shejaiya. 

Hamas had buried IED's in the roadway and were monitoring them with remote cameras. When the IDF troops entered the ambush zone Hamas detonated the IED's separating four IDF troops from the main IDF force. Hamas then proceeded to attack the IDF force from two directions. Rather impressively the IDF then outflanked the Hamas force on three axis. Eventually overrunning it and causing it to flee following an hours long firefight. Unfortunately four IDF troops were killed in the initial IED attack, a further three were killed in a subsequent IED attack and two more were killed in the firefight. Those nine deaths representing the largest loss of life by the IDF if operations in the Gaza Strip so far.

Amid the ferocity of the fighting there are now more frequent signs that Hamas is starting to completely collapse as a military force. Particularly in the Northern Combat Zone.

One such sign is the massive increase in the number of Hamas fighters surrendering en masse. With entire platoons surrendering to the IDF at the same time. Having been abandoned by their commanders and running out of food, water and ammunition.

A particularly notable incident occurred on or around December 12th (12/12/23) when some 70 Hamas fighters surrendered at the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahia. Those captured included Ahmad Kahlot, who you may have seen appear in the international media portraying himself  as the director of the hospital. Particularly appealing for fuel to be delivered or refusing to evacuate patients as fuel began to run out, yet curiously never did.

In reality Ahmad Kahlot is a Brigadier-General in Hamas' military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades. His role since 2010 has been to command the Hamas military base at the Kamal Adwan Hospital where Hamas combatants wear the uniforms of medical staff, travel around in marked ambulances and fly the emblem of the ICRC. All very serious War Crimes of Perfidy.

Such is the sheer number of Hamas fighters surrendering that photographs and video of some of the incidents have begun to emerge online. 

There they have triggered some outrage over the fact that in surrendering the prisoners have been required to strip to their underwear. This is a standard and lawful tactic used wherever there is a concern that suicide bombers may be hiding themselves amongst those surrendering. The perfidious War Crime of faking the use of the White Flag of surrender. As its situation has become ever more desperate Hamas has been making increasing use of suicide bombers, particularly female suicide bombers.

Although far from entirely positive news. Another sign of Hamas' growing collapse has been the increasing number of the remains of Israeli hostages being recovered by the IDF. There have been five in the past week alone.

It is unclear whether these hostages have been murdered by Hamas while being held prisoners or whether they were murdered by Hamas on October 7th (7/10/23) and then their remains were then taken hostage. In 2014 Hamas seized the bodies of two IDF soldiers, Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin. Almost 10 years later Hamas is still trying to ransom those remains for the release of Hamas combatants. Regardless the fact that these five sets of remains have been recovered is further evidence of Hamas no longer being able to exert effective control over its positions and, what it considers, resources.

Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin were killed and their bodies kidnapped when Hamas ambushed an IDF Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC) in the Shejaiya district of Gaza City. Hamas celebrated the attack by erecting a statue of an APC with a clenched fist punching through it in the main square in Shejaiya. It is another sign of Hamas' collapse that on October 18th (18/12/23) members of Shaul and Goldin's Golani Brigade were able to secure the square and tear down that statue.

On December 15th (15/12/23) Hamas' growing collapse brought what should have been a moment of immense joy, only for it to turn into tragedy. Three of Hamas' civilian hostages - Yotam Haim, Samer Talaka and Alon Shamriz - were able to free themselves from captivity in Shejaiya. They approached IDF troops stripped to the waist with their hands raised and waving a makeshift White Flag or surrender.

Unfortunately to the IDF troops this looked exactly like one of the many perfidious Hamas ambushes they and their colleagues had faced before. So feeling threatened one of those IDF troops potentially broke with the Rules of Engagement (RoE) and opened fire. Resulting in all three being killed.

If there is any positive to be drawn from that situation. I'm sure that all IDF troops operating in the Gaza Strip now have a much better understanding of the RoE and are all well aware that they may well encounter hostages who have managed to free themselves amid Hamas' spreading collapse.

Another indication of the significant progress the IDF has been making in defeating Hamas has been Rocket Artillery Hamas has been able to fire into civilian areas of Israel. In another departure from previous rounds of fighting in the Gaza Strip the IDF is not publishing details of Hamas and associated groups rocket fire. Making it much harder for people whose access to the Red Alert App is Geolocked to keep track of.

However on October 7th (7/12/23) Hamas fired some 3,000 rockets and other projectiles into Israel. Once Hamas had been expelled from Israeli territory that rocket fire dropped to an average of a 100 or so per day. Once the IDF ground operation began that average dropped again to around 30-40 per day.

Amid the second phase of the IDF's ground operation it has dropped to an average of no more than a handful per day. There are now days without any rocket fire at all. Hamas have been able to put on periodic big displays. Such as on Saturday (16/12/23) and Tuesday (19/12/23). However it's clear that Hamas is running out of ammunition. So needs to forgo daily attacks in order to be able to mount those big displays.

One of the main reasons why the IDF began its ground operations with the North of the Gaza Strip is that this is where it was easiest for Hamas to launch rockets into Central Israel. Hamas is now only able to launch rockets from the Tuffah and Daraj districts of Gaza City. Hamas' ability to launch rockets from Khan Younis has also been significantly reduced.

Prior to launching its assault on Khan Younis the IDF established a Safe-Zone for civilians in Al-Mawasi, located on the coast around 4km (2.5 miles) West of Khan Younis. One of the first things the IDF did in launching its assault was to establish a Humanitarian Corridor for from Khan Younis to Al-Mawasi. 

Unfortunately international aid agencies such as the UN and the ICRC are still refusing to provide Humanitarian Aid to Palestinian civilians in Al-Mawasi. Hamas however has had no such qualms. Doing what the UN and ICRC have claimed to be impossible, establishing infrastructure at Al-Mawasi. Unfortunately Hamas has only bothered to establish infrastructure to fire rockets at Israel, rather than to help Palestinian civilians.

As it has been forced from other areas Al-Mawasi along with Rafah has now emerged as the main areas for Hamas rocket fire into Israel. Being further away from Israel this has only had extremely limited success. Something like 35% of the rockets Hamas are firing from Al-Mawasi fall short and land on Palestinian civilians within the Gaza Strip.

There are indications that the IDF's ground operations could expand to Rafah. On December 15th (15/12/23) the IDF conducted its first airstrikes in The Philadelphi Corridor. This is a 1km (0.6 mile) wide buffer-zone running the length of the border between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. It was established during the 1979 return of the Sinai Peninsula from Israel to Egypt. When it ended its occupation of the Gaza Strip in 2005 Israel withdrew its forces from the Philadelphi Corridor and gave limited Egyptian forces permission to operate there. Although Israel has always retained the right to reassert its control over the buffer-zone.

Personally I don't think the expansion of the IDF's ground operations to Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor can come soon enough. If I was commanding the IDF that's where I would have started its ground operations. Allowing the area to be established as a Humanitarian Bridgehead where Palestinian civilians can find safety and be provided with Humanitarian Aid as Hamas are cleared from the rest of the Gaza Strip.

However on Monday (18/12/23) the IDF completed its mopping up operations in Beit Hanoun. While on Tuesday (19/12/23) the IDF completed its combat operations in Jabaliya and the accompanying Refugee Camp. So while mopping up operations in Jabaliya and combat operations in the Shejaiya, Tuffah and Daraj districts of Gaza City will likely continue for some time. There is now a possibility that the North of the Gaza Strip could be established as that Humanitarian Bridgehead.

Unfortunately that will require international aid agencies like the UN and the ICRC to work with Israel to deliver Humanitarian Aid through the border crossings in the North, such as the Erez Crossing. Rather than the Kareem Shalom Crossing in the South which was opened on December 17th (17/12/23). 

Given the sheer number of Hamas combatants who've been captured wearing the uniforms of the UN and the ICRC, along with the experience of Al-Mawasi. That seems highly unlikely.

Supposedly neutral international aid agencies such as the UN and the ICRC seem even more committed than Hamas to maximising the suffering of the Palestinian people. 

18:51 on 20/12/23 (UK date).

 

 

 

Operation: Saxon Needles; Month 3, Week 1, Day 7.

On Saturday October 7th (7/10/23) the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) launched a surprise attack against Israel from the Gaza Strip. Under the cover of some 3,000 rockets this attack saw Hamas temporarily take control of 480km² (260miles²) of Israeli territory alongside the Gaza Strip.

Within that area Hamas set about systematically slaughtering a large number of they believed to be Jews. Simply because they believed them to be Jews. Something which, prima facie (at first sight) constitutes multiple offences of the Crime Against Humanity of; "Murder" contrary to Article 7.1(a) of The Rome Statute of 1998. Prima facie it also seems to constitute multiple offences of the Crime Against Humanity of; "Extermination" or; "Genocide" with the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to articles 7.1(b)(h) of the Rome Statute.

Hamas also took hostage a large number of people, both civilian and military, which it believed to be Jews. Each individual hostage taken prima facie constituting the multiple Crimes Against Humanity of; "Imprisonment," "Forced Displacement" and "Other Inhumane Acts [...]Causing Serious Injury to Body or to Physical or Mental Health." With the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to Article 7.1(e)(i)(k)(h) of the Rome Statute.

Although it took them until December 1st (1/12/23) and December 6th (6/12/23) respectively. Both the United Nations Entity For Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women) and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) have now acknowledged that Hamas also committed widespread and systematic acts of; "Rape and/or Sexual Violence." Further Crimes Against Humanity contrary to Article 7.1(g) of the Rome Statute.

Hamas has not provided a comprehensive list of the hostages it has taken. Let alone allowed the International Committee of the Red Cross/Crescent (ICRC) to visit them. Some hostages have been rescued, some have been freed and some have been killed in captivity. This coupled with the gruesome violence with which Hamas committed its crimes makes it impossible to give an exact number of those killed or taken hostage at this time.

However the current assessment is that Hamas is still holding 137 hostages. Representing a total of 548 Individual, Ongoing Crimes Against Humanity.

Almost immediately as Hamas attacked the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) launched a counter-offensive. This included airstrikes against military targets within the Gaza Strip. On October 28th (28/10) this counter-offensive expanded to include IDF ground operations within the Gaza Strip.

This initial phase of the IDF's ground operations saw them divide the Gaza Strip into two zones, broadly along the Wadi Gaza river. The southern Non-Combat Zone and the northern Combat Zone. Instructing and assisting civilians to move out of the Combat Zone and into the Non-Combat Zone.

By around November 13th (13/11/23) it seemed that the IDF had all but defeated Hamas in the Combat Zone in the North. Advancing Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun it had encircled and entered Gaza City, the main city in the Combat Zone. Hamas' main defensive positions in the Jabaliya and Shati districts of Gaza City had been overrun and it was assessed that 10 of Hamas' 24 battalions in the Combat Zone had lost Combat Effectiveness.

Combat Effectiveness is when any organised military formation such as a battalion has seen so many of its members killed, injured or captured it is no longer able to fight effectively. Rather like how if enough members of a football team are sent off it can no longer compete with the other team.

During The Second Indo-China War (1955-1975) which it called The Vietnam War the US became obsessed with statistical analysis. Focusing entirely on tangible things which could be measured such as the "bodycount" - the number of enemy fighters killed and the number of weapons seized as a measure of success. In doing this they ignored intangible things which are harder to measure and quantify. Ultimately losing the war.

So taken on its own there is no one accurate measure of how a war is going. The measure of Combat Effectiveness very much depends on the type of military formation you're trying to assess. For example a tank battalion which has not seen a single one of its troops killed, wounded or captured yet has lost all of its tanks is going to be completely ineffective in combat.

Although they like to give them incredibly elaborate names which wildly overstate their capacity. Hamas forces are really limited to combat infantry. This makes the Combat Effectiveness of each division a less accurate measure. As people can easily switch between infantry roles and formations can be easily reformed and reshaped. So while Hamas may have lost half of 10 of its 24 battalions in the North within a short pause they can quickly reform the 10 ineffective battalions into 5 effective battalions. Leaving them with 19 battalions over all.

Under international pressure Israel was forced to hand Hamas exactly that short pause to reform and reorganise. On November 24th (24/11/23) a ceasefire was declared. Initially this was intended to last for three days but ended up being extended until December 1st (1/12/23). During that time Hamas released 81 Israeli civilian hostages in exchange for 210 Hamas combatants legally held in Israeli prisons. Separetely but alongside that agreement Hamas also released 21 other non-Israel hostages, receiving nothing in return.

Under the current Biden Regime the US position on Hamas' attack on Israel has been remarkably, extremely close to the position of Hamas. Jews and particularly Israeli Jews are a race of sub-human demons who have no right not to be treated in this way. So should immediately surrender to Hamas by giving Hamas exactly what it wants in return for allowing Hamas to torture the nation as a whole in hope of one day getting some of its hostages released. Negotiations over the release of the mere remains of one Israeli hostage, Hadar Goldin, are currently in their tenth year.

However under the Biden Regime the US also assessed that these demon Jews have been driven mad by rage. So would need to be allowed to conduct a small, limited military operation against the Gaza Strip in order sate their bloodlust before they could be forced to meekly and obediently surrender to Hamas.

Really since it took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 Hamas has been indiscriminately firing rocket artillery against civilian targets in Israel. Each round of rocket artillery fired representing an individual War Crime, contrary to Article 3 of the 4th Geneva Convention of 1949. Hamas has concentrated the bulk of its military forces in the North of the Gaza Strip as, being closer, it is easier for them to fire rocket artillery at Central Israel, key cities such as Jerusalem and the capital Tel Aviv.

The North of the Gaza Strip is also contains to Gaza City, the nominal capital of the enclave. Home to Infrastructure of State such as the Parliament building and Palace of Justice courthouse complex.

Operating under constant fear that the US under the current Biden Regime would force it to surrender at any time, the US warships in the Mediterranean Sea and the US drones flying over the Gaza Strip seem more aimed at Israel than anyone else, Israel chose to launch its ground operations in the North of the Gaza Strip first. Thinking this gave it the best chance of doing the most damage to Hamas as quickly as possible.

I though have never found that to be a particularly useful way to think about the Gaza Strip. In terms of area the Gaza Strip is only around 360km² (215miles²). Compared to Britain's capital city London which covers some 1,500km² (600miles²). So rather than thinking of the Gaza Strip as almost a country made up of multiple battlespaces it is more appropriate to think of its a single battlespace. As the Iraqi city of Mosul was thought of as single battlespace during that much talked about 2016/17 Battle of Mosul.

So although Hamas has concentrated the bulk of military forces in the North of the Gaza Strip and Gaza's Infrastructure of State are located in Gaza City. It actually has military forces located across the Gaza Strip. Hamas' true seat of power, its Castle Keep if you like, is actually beneath the Gaza Strip. The vast 480km (300 mile) network of tunnels and bunkers known as the Gaza Metro.

From a purely military perspective you would want to attack the entire Gaza Strip as a single battlespace from as many directions as possible. The key mistake the US made in the Battle of Mosul was only attacking from the East. Thinking it would prompt the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to flee West.

The only reason you would divide the Gaza Strip into different battlespaces would be for humanitarian reasons. Undermining your military objectives in order to minimise the impact on civilians. Something no Western military, such as those in the NATO alliance, would ever contemplate doing.

As I appreciate the IDF's unparelleled attempts to minimise civilian casualties. Ideally what I would have done is divide the Gaza Strip into three, possibly four, zones. I would then attack the most southerly zone first making it the Combat Zone. Then once the IDF had taken control of it establish it as a Humanitarian Bridgehead where civilians could be provided with humanitarian aid. I would then advance the Combat Zone and then Humanitarian Zone North. Leaving the northern Gaza Strip, the area around Gaza City, as the last area to become a Combat Zone.

The US pressure on Israel under the Biden Regime has made that impossible. Forcing the IDF to start its ground operations in the North of the Gaza Strip. Leaving us unable to establish it as a Humanitarian Bridgehead as the border crossings needed to deliver humanitarian aid are at the opposite end of the Gaza Strip.

The ceasefire which Israel more-or-less had imposed on it has made the situation even worse. It has allowed Hamas to reform and regroup in the North. Meaning that what was a mopping up operation on November 24th (24/12/23) has now shifted back into more of a combat operation. There's absolutely no possibility that Hamas will be able to reverse its losses in the North. It's now just going to take a little bit longer to completely defeat them in the North and return the area to being a Non-Combat Zone.

At the same time the pressure the US under the current Biden Regime is placing on Israel has forced it to expand its ground operations into other areas of the Gaza Strip. Meaning that there are now other Combat Zones alongside the Combat Zone in the North. Risking all of the Gaza Strip becoming a Combat Zone. Something which is great from a military perspective but terrible from a humanitarian one.

The IDF launched the second phase of its ground element of its counter-offensive on December 3rd (3/12/23). Focusing on Khan Younis, arguably the Gaza Strips's second city, located roughly 6km (3.5 miles) from the Rafah Border Crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt and roughly 6km (3.5 miles) from the Gaza Strip's border with Israel.

The IDF very quickly advanced on and surrounded Khan Younis. They then advanced into the city from multiple directions taking control of the heart of the city by December 5th (5/12/23). Fighting continues within the city as the IDF continue to attempt remove Hamas and allied groups and take full control.

Obviously the IDF knew that the ceasefire was coming. It was actually supposed to start on November 22nd (22/11/23) before being delayed for two days. So the IDF were able to factor it into their planning. Declining to attack Hamas final defensive positions in the Beit Hanoun, the Jabliya Refugee Camp and the Shejayia district of Gaza City. Instead choosing to coordinate those attacks with the attack on Khan Younis in order to maximise the pressure on and confusion experienced by Hamas.

Certainly since it became the Governing Authority in the Gaza Strip in 2007 Hamas' strategy has centred around Atrocity Propaganda. It deeply embeds itself in the civilian population in order to maximise the number of civilian casualties in any conflict with Israel. The thinking being that this will generate outrage which can be translated into pressure on Israel to stop the fighting.

So alongside the US under the current Biden Regime Hamas has been thinking that it merely needs to wait out the IDF's counter-offensive in its underground tunnel and bunker network. Then when either the demon Jews bloodlust has been sated or international pressure has become too great Israel will be forced into a ceasefire. Meekly surrendering to Hamas by giving it is secondary aspiration in attacking Israel. Giving Hamas exactly what it wants in return for allowing Hamas to torture the nation as a whole in hope of one day getting some of its hostages released.

With Hamas not being able to force Israel into extending the ceasefire they seem to have started to lose faith in this plan. Instead emerging from their tunnels and bunkers. Leading to much fiercer fighting being seen both in Khan Younis and the Combat Zone in the North. Although it might seem strange. Once you've decided to go to war or had the decision to go to war forced upon you, as has happened to Israel here. Then you actually want to see fierce fighting. If you're not able to see you enemy immediately surrendering.

On December 1st (1/12/23), prior to launching its operations in Khan Younis, the IDF dropped leaflets over the city. Guiding residents to an online map which divided the city up into very small segments. The map is to be updated showing the exact areas that civilians should avoid as combat will be taking place.

The IDF has described this online map as a; "Red Alert System." Inviting comparisons with the Red Alert cellphone app Israel uses to warn its citizens about incoming rocket artillery fire, primarily from Hamas in Gaza. The Israel Red Alert app is powered by its Iron Dome radar system. A system which is unparalled in its accuracy being able to pinpoint projectile launches, flightpaths and landing sites in level of detail used in the online map.

The COP28 Climate Change Summit has been taking place in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from November 30th (30/11/23) until its scheduled end on December 12th (12/12/23). Last year's COP27 Summit was held in Egypt. Specifically in the Sinai Peninsula, right on the border with Israel. Many of the security elements for that summit are now very active.

How you predict the weather is always huge part of monitoring Climate Change. It was a particular focus at COP27 and its efforts to tackle Loss & Damage. Many developing nations don't actually know how their climate is changing as they don't have accurate weather records. Being able to predict Loss & Damage is the best way of being able to avoid it. The main way to forecast and record weather is by using radar. The same radar that is used in Iron Dome.

These discussions were very nearly dramatically disrupted at COP27. When Ukrainian Nazis fired a rocket at Polish Nazis. Triggering something of an international competition of radar based rocket tracking technology. Almost to the minute that happened there was the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PiJ) rocket which misfired and hit the Al-Alhi Hospital on October 18th (18/10/23).

Having lost the competition it started over radar based tracking technology the US has been pressuring Israel to provide Ukraine's Nazis with Iron Dome. Israel hasn't gone that far but it has shared some of technology behind the Red Alert app. In the short skirmish between Israel and PiJ in Gaza back in May 2023 Israel discovered the Red Alert app suddenly wasn't working as well as it did before the technology was shared with the Ukraine's Nazis. As a result the IDF is not publishing details of Iron Dome's performance during the conflict.

There is also an online mapping site called Wikimapia which is much more accurate than Google maps. Not least because it allows users to edit the maps down to the level of detail used in the IDF's online map of Khan Younis. Wikimapia was essential to my work in combating ISIL and associated groups. Unfortunately it's based in Russia. So US sanctions on Russia in the run-up to the 2016 US Elections gradually left it inaccessible. An example of US attacks on Russia aiding ISIL and associated groups.

Obviously the unreliability of the Internet in the Gaza Strip at the moment has led some to question how useful the IDF's interactive map will be. However it certainly better than nothing. Going far, far beyond the IDF's obligations under actual International Humanitarian Law. With Israel providing Palestinian civilians with air raid warnings. While Hamas, as the Governing Authority, isn't even providing Palestinian civilians with bomb shelters.

On or around December 3rd (3/12/23) the IDF put about a story that it was planning to flood Hamas vast network of tunnels and bunkers with sea water. Something COP27 host Egypt did with Hamas smuggling tunnels back in 2013. The problem with using seawater is that it's salty, causing Salination of the soil. Destroying that soil as potential farmland.

It may surprise many to learn that Environmental Damage is actually a War Crime. Under Customary Laws Of War which far pre-date any efforts to combat Climate Change. The reason most people don't know this is that its often the first Law of War that gets voided by the principle Military Exigency

Salination is a really common example of Loss & Damage. One which was really in focus at COP27. A topic I've still not been able to cover even as COP28 draws to a close. Due to certain elements deciding to dedicate all of 2023 to wasting my time and losing.

On December 6th (6/12/23) the IDF dropped more leaflets over Khan Younis. These leaflets quoted the Qu'ran's reference to Noah's biblical flood. Hamas' "Operation: Al Aqsa Flood" seems to have been inspired to what would have been Israel's 2023 Eurovision Song Contest entry. The Noah referencing; "Unicorn" by Noa Kirel. Obviously some took this as a reference to the IDF's supposed plan to flood Hamas' tunnel and bunker network.

Noah's flood is referenced in the 29th chapter of the Qu'ran. Which is often referred to as; "The Spider." There is a coarse Australian slang term for wasting time; "F*cking Spiders."

So, again. These really aren't the actions of  the military of a race of subhuman demons traumatised and driven mad by bloodlust and revenge. These are the actions of a highly professional military that is well within its comfort zone, calmly and methodically working towards its legitimate objectives. With quite a fair bit of style too.

Even during the ceasefire, long before it launched the second phase of the ground element of its counter-offensive, the IDF designated a Safe-Zone for Palestinians civilians. In the Al-Mawasi area on the coast, around 4km (2.5 miles) West of Khan Younis.

As a former Bedouin traveller camp Mawasi has been attacked as being a barren wasteland, devoid of civilian infrastructure. The problem is that Hamas' Atrocity Propaganda strategy has them so deeply embedded in the civilian population that the only places where there aren't Hamas positions which need to be attacked are areas without any civilian infrastructure.

It really should be incredibly easy for international aid agencies like the ICRC, the UN and others to provide temporary civilian infrastructure at al-Mawasi. They are well used to working in the aftermath of natural disasters where the civilian infrastructure has been destroyed.

However the international aid agencies are refusing to provide humanitarian aid in al-Mawasi. Instead they are keeping the humanitarian aid which is being delivered in areas like Khan Younis. In an effort to keep civilians in those areas.

This is no longer a matter of poor planning or organisation. This is international aid agencies like the ICRC and the UN criminally conspiring with Hamas and its Atrocity Propaganda strategy by trying to kill the maximum number of Palestinian civilians possible.

19:06 on 11/12/23 (UK date).

Operation: Saxon Needles; Month 2 Week 4, Day 6.

On Saturday October 7th 2023 (7/10/23) the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) launched a surprise and unprovoked attack from the Gaza Strip against Israel. Contrary to Hamas propaganda which, sadly, is often reported as fact in the Western media the Gaza Strip is not under Israeli occupation. It has not been under Israeli occupation since 2005.

Hamas' declaration of war against Israel saw the group temporarily seize control of some 480km² (260 miles²) of Israeli territory bordering the Gaza Strip. In that area Hamas set about systematically killing large numbers of people it believed to be Jews. 

Prima facie (at first sight) this clearly constitutes multiple offences of the Crime Against Humanity of; "Murder," contrary to Article 7.1(a) of The Rome Statute of 1998. Prima facie it also seems to constitute multiple offences the Crimes Against Humanity of; "Extermination" or; "Genocide" with the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to Articles 7.1(b)(h) of the Rome Statute of 1998. 

The wanton and sadistic violence with which Hamas carried out its killings makes it impossible to give an exact deathtoll at this time. However the current estimate is that Hamas exterminated 1,200 people they believed to be Jews. Simply because Hamas believed them to be Jews.

Hamas also took a very large number of people it believed to be Jews hostage, both civilians and members of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). At the very least, prima facie, each one of the hostages taken constitutes the Crimes Against Humanity of; "Imprisonment," "Enforced Disappearance" and; "Other Inhumane Acts [...] Causing Serious Injury to Body or to Mental or Physical Health." With the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to Article 7.1(e)(i)(k)(h) of the Rome Statute of 1998.

Again the gruesome violence with which Hamas committed its atrocities makes it impossible to give an exact total of the number of hostages taken at this time. However the current estimate is 240. So 960 Individual, Ongoing, Crimes Against Humanity.

Immediately Israel launched a counter-offensive in response to Hamas' declaration of war. On October 28th (28/10/23) this Israeli counter-offensive expanded to include IDF ground operations within the Gaza Strip.

On November 24th (24/11/23) a temporary ceasefire was agreed. In order to allow Hamas to release the female and child civilian hostages it was holding. In exchange for humanitarian aid and the release of Hamas' combatants being legally held in Israeli prisons. The agreed rate was 1 hostage for 30 Hamas prisoners. The ceasefire ran alongside Hamas unilaterally releasing other hostages, from Russia and Thailand, without receiving and concession in return.

It only took until the second day of the ceasefire for Hamas to start violating its terms. On Saturday (25/11/23) it refused to make the agreed hostages available at the agreed time. Instead attempting to leverage them for further concessions. An effort it failed at.

Hamas continued to violate the ceasefire at every opportunity. Failing to release the agreed hostages and attempting to have hostages released under the separate agreements counted as part of the ceasefire agreement. Hamas also executed hostages. 21 confirmed so far, 26 suspected.

On Thursday (30/11/23) Hamas failed to provide a list of hostages to be released in order for the ceasefire to be extended for a further day. Two hours before the ceasefire was set to expire on Friday (1/12/23) Hamas resumed indiscriminate rocket artillery fire against civilian targets in Israel. War Crimes contrary to Article 3 of The 4th Geneva Convention (1949).

As a result of Hamas' actions the ceasefire came to an end.

The ground element of the IDF's counter-offensive involved dividing the Gaza Strip into two zones. A Combat Zone in the North and a Non-Combat Zone in the South. In the week prior to the ceasefire going into effect the IDF had all but defeated Hamas in the Combat Zone in the North. Hamas had collapsed as a military force leaving the IDF with mopping up operations, the task of fully securing the area under its control.

Once the IDF had completed those mopping up operations there was always going to be a ceasefire of sorts. As the IDF rotated its troops and repositioned its forces in preparation for the next phase of its counter-offensive.

So if Hamas' release of hostages had been linked only to a ceasefire, as its release of Russian and Thai hostages was. Then Israel would have secured the release of 81 hostages in return for nothing more than something it was going to do anyway.

Unfortunately the ceasefire agreement also included the release of Hamas combatants. This was Hamas' secondary aspiration in launching its war. That the World would leap to its aid and impose a ceasefire on Israel. Allowing Hamas to collectively torture the Israeli population with an agonising process in which all Hamas combatants are released in exchange for some of the hostages Hamas had seized. The torturous negotiations over Hamas' release of the remains of Hadar Goldin are currently in their tenth year.

So in agreeing to the exchange of Hamas combatants for hostages alongside a ceasefire Israel was giving Hamas its secondary aspiration. Handing it victory. Something which those who fought against Hamas in the early days of its war might be inclined to take as a personal insult.

Giving Hamas any sense of victory, no matter how small, also gives it a sense of confidence. Hamas' primary aspiration in launching its war was that the Muslim world would rush to its aid on the battlefield and wipe Israel from existence in a recreation of the 1973 War. Despite the fact that not only did Israel face a far large force that Hamas would be able to raise today it won the 1973 War decisively and comprehensively.

So, clearly, anything which adds to Hamas' delusional sense of confidence is just really cruel on them. Atrocity Propaganda is central to Hamas' military strategy. So any confidence it is given to fight on is giving Hamas confidence to slaughter very large numbers of Palestinian civilians. Palestinian civilians who have already suffered greatly during Hamas' 16 years in control of the Gaza Strip.

Lead amongst those putting pressure on Israel to hand Hamas its secondary aspiration has been the US, under The Biden Regime.

The US Biden Regime seems to have a very strange view of Jews and Israel. They seem to see them as some sort of devils who exist only to enslave the true Master Race. This nation of demons was, apparently, driven mad with vengeance on October 7th (7/10/23). So they need to satisfy their bloodlust with enough to make their Matzos before they can be obediently forced to bow down to the heroes of Hamas and hand it its secondary aspiration.

I have a very different view of Jews and the IDF in particular.

In immediate response to Hamas' declaration of war the IDF was forced to call 360,000 reservists into fulltime military service. Those reservists immediately started a nationwide moustache growing competition. Something which is a major plot point of the 2008 US TV mini-series; "Generation Kill."

Generation Kill is an adaptation of the book by journalist Evan Wright about his time embedded with the US Marine Corps' 1st Reconnaissance Battalion during the 2003 Invasion of Iraq. It was adapted by David Simon of; "The Wire" fame before Trump Derangement Syndrome took hold of him.

David Simon was an elite US Reconnaissance Marine during the Second Indochina War, or the Vietnam War. A handful of the actors in Generation Kill aren't actors at all. They're US Reconnaissance Marines playing the roles they played in the 2003 Invasion of Iraq. 

So while Generation Kill is an entertainment TV show rather than a documentary. It is one of the more realistic TV dramas about war that you'll see. In the sense that there are no great battles or stories of medal winning heroism. It's really just a group of men bitching, moaning and swearing their way through a very heavily armed roadtrip across Iraq.

One of the main characters is Staff Sergeant Brad "Iceman" Colbert. At one point it's claimed that he's Jewish. Although it's never made clear whether that's actually true or whether they're just trying to antagonise the Battalion's Protestant Christian Chaplin. Who they've been provided with instead of food and ammunition.

Around the time that Generation Kill was in development I was, I suppose, an approved human for a dog named; "Screwby-Ru" or, simply; "Screwby" for short. A joke which was continued in; "Euphoria," a US remake of an Israeli show.

Unbeknownst to us at the time. "Screwby" is actual US Marine Corp slang. For something which is messed up, not quite right or just a bit off. A term which seemed to rather suit a strange little rescue dog who didn't even know how to bark or bite.

So there are quite a few references to me in Generation Kill. Particularly in Episode 3; "Screwby." It uses the title track from Johnny Cash's portentous album; "American IV: The Man Comes Around" over its final scene.

I like to think I returned the compliment. Before I got banned from Twitter I used to use a little Ninja as my avatar. A little reference to the Screwby episode of Generation Kill. A really cleaned up version, obviously.

As a reconnaissance battalion the Marines in Generation Kill all travel around in lightly armoured Humvees. Something they complain about constantly.

So within, I think, the first week of its counter-offensive the IDF put on a big display to keep the foreign media entertained. Using young, attractive female conscripts to drive lightly armoured Humvees around. In a recreation of the opening scene of Generation Kill. These Humvees had big, phallic guns on their roofs. Although it's hard to tell exactly type of gun, as they were all covered by condom-like wrappers.

So from the very start of its counter-offensive not only was the IDF making jokes. They were making good jokes!

Those are not the actions of a group of devils and demons driven mad by vengeance and bloodlust. Those are the actions of a highly professional military calmly and methodically working towards clear objectives. As those objectives are essential to their survival they will not be stopped from achieving them.

So I'm not too concerned about Hamas being allowed to think it has achieved victory in its secondary aspiration. Although giving Hamas any sense of confidence will only encourage it to fight on. Fight on by maximising the suffering to Palestinian civilians.

My much more serious concern is the inclusion of humanitarian aid in the ceasefire agreement. Particularly the way that humanitarian aid is being delivered. To the South of the Gaza Strip via The Rafah Crossing from Egypt.

In its early attempts to pressure Israel to simply surrender to Hamas, rather than launching the ground element of its counter-offensive. The US made much reference to the 2016/17 Battle of Mosul. No doubt still traumatised by what a mess it made of the Battle of Mosul. The former Biden Regime fell very early on in that battle.

What the US seems to have forgotten is that I, or at least my desk, also fought in the Battle of Mosul. Largely trying to overcome what a mess the US was making of it. So it is a topic I'd be happy to talk discreetly and directly to the IDF about in a great amount of detail. Although the fact I was working alongside at least one of the Hezbollahs at the time makes that rather awkward for all concerned.

You can almost think of the Iraqi city of Mosul as two cities in one. On the West bank of the Tigris River you have the old city. Made up of tightly packed ancient buildings with streets too narrow for any sort of motor vehicle, let alone armoured vehicles, to use. Then on the East bank of the Tigris you have the new city. A modern city with open spaces and multi-lane highways.

The main mistake the US made in the Battle of Mosul was thinking that it could enter into some sort of agreement with The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). So if the anti-ISIL coalition forces began to push gently against the Eastern side of Mosul. Then ISIL would politely leave through the Western side. Regrouping in Syria.

This saw the US drag everyone into ISIL's trap. Of taking hostages from the Eastern side of Mosul and consolidating themselves in the Western side of Mosul. Establishing themselves in a sort of Castle Keep from where they were able to drag out the battle into months of some of the most brutal urban warfare anyone has ever seen.

What the US should have done is to attack Mosul from multiple directions at the same time. With the main focus being on the Western side of the city. In order to force ISIL from its Castle Keep and into the harder to defend Eastern side of the city. 

Ideally at the same time opening Humanitarian Corridors in the Eastern side of the city, to allow civilians to escape. Although it always annoys me when politicians call for; "Humanitarian Corridors" not realising that establishing them involves ground troops having to fight to take full control of the area.

All standing armies plan and train. This is particularly true of the Israel-Palestine Conflict where there is the concept of; "The War Between The Wars." Throughout its rule over the Gaza Strip Hamas has indiscriminately fired rocket artillery at Israeli civilian targets. It has focused its effort on the North of the Gaza Strip as this makes it easier to target key cities in the centre of Israel such as Jerusalem and the capital Tel Aviv.

So one of the plans the IDF has long had on the shelf is to establish a demilitariesed Buffer-Zone in the North of the Gaza Strip.

Clearly the current US Biden Regime views Israel as a nation of devils and demons driven mad by vengeance and bloodlust. When it became clear to the Biden Regime that it wasn't going to be able to pressure Israel into meekly surrendering to Hamas it agreed to the IDF launching a ground operation inspired by the Northern Buffer-Zone plan. Thinking that would be enough to sate Israel's bloodlust and it could then be forced to meekly surrender to Hamas.

Now the ground element of the IDF's counter-offensive is underway I suppose I'm able to speak more freely about what I would have done instead.

Ideally I would have established Egypt's Sinai Peninsula as a Humanitarian Safe-Zone. Essentially a refugee camp where Palestinians were able to receive whatever humanitarian assistance they required after being freed from Hamas. After going through the necessary filtration processes at the border.

Having fought battles in Palestinian refugee camps in Syria before I am, obviously, aware of the longstanding issues surrounding the; "Palestinian Right of Return." However I genuinely do not think there is any desire on Israel's part to make the situation permanent. There is certainly enough international opposition, myself included, to silence any Israeli factions which do want to make it permanent.

Failing that I would divide the Gaza Strip into three, possibly four, zones. Running South to North. One at a time I would then designate these zones as the Combat Zone. With the others being designated as Non-Combat Zones.

I would have started with the South Zone on the Egyptian border as the first Combat Zone. Once it had been cleared it would then be established as a Humanitarian Bridgehead. Where Palestinians were able to receive whatever humanitarian assistance they required after being freed from Hamas. After going through the necessary filtration processes at the boundry with the zone to its North. I would then progress North until all the zones have been cleared.

Under pressure from the US Biden Regime the IDF has started doing this, only in reverse. As the Combat Zone shifts this creates the problem of trying to get Palestinians Civilians to move into the new Non-Combat Zone without that Humanitarian Bridgehead having being established.

The inclusion of Humanitarian Aid in the ceasefire agreement worsens that problem. Amassing that Humanitarian Aid and therefore Palestinian civilians in an area which, inevitably, become a Combat Zone. All but guaranteeing a bloodbath of a very large number of Palestinian civilians.

Obviously I hope that certain people learn to obey their superiors. So that bloodbath does not come to pass. It can be very easily avoided.

However if this planned bloodbath of Palestinian civilians does happen. Then I will have absolutely no problem making sure everyone knows exactly who is responsible.

19:00 on 2/12/13 (UK date).

 

 

Operation: Saxon Needles; Month 2, Week 4, Day 4.

Today (30/11/23) sees the start of the 28th Conference Of Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Held in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Needless to say, I'm on a bit of a pivot. A pivot not entirely unrelated to the pivot I found myself on during COP27. The security situation in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula in the wake of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War.

I do though have a quick moment to contemplate the difference between diplomacy and war.

COP20 took place in Lima, Peru back in 2014. Its closure was seriously delayed by the behaviour of the Ugandan delegation during the closing session of the Durban Platform. In a row over financing the Ugandan delegation essentially filibustered the closing vote, dealing with procedural matters relating to the next meeting. For the best part of eight hours.

Needless to say this was rather annoying. However as it was a diplomatic event everyone had to remain patient and polite. Any criticism had to be extremely subtle and in Latin.

This was in complete contrast to an incident I remember from the 2016/17 Battle of Mosul. An incident the US alluded to in the October 1st 2017 (1/10/17) Las Vegas Strip/Mandalay Bay Shooting.

Although I can't remember the exact address an Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) fireteam was holed up in a multistory apartment building in the east of the city. I think it might actually have been a single ISIL fighter equipped with a medium machine gun.

They too were being extremely annoying.

So we just dropped a big bomb on their heads. They were a lot less annoying after that.

And yes. We did destroy the entire apartment building in the process.

Then there was the March 17th 2017 (17/3/17) US airstrikes on the western al-Aghwat al-Jadidah of Mosul. 

There ISIL were making extensive use of Suicide-Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (S-VBIEDS). Essentially truck bombs of the size of the 1995 Oklahoma City Bombing or the Provisional Irish Republic Army (PIRA) bombing of London's Docklands in 1996. ISIL would drive these bombs at Iraq forces in an attempt to kill them.

On March 17th the US conducted an airstrike against one of these S-VBIED's to stop it reaching its target. The airstrike detonated the truck bomb. Destroying the entire city block of al-Aghwat al-Jadidah and killing the 278+ civilians who were in that city block at the time.

So given the mess the US made of not only the Battle of Mosul but also of Mosul itself. You'd think they'd be quietly grateful of the opportunity for the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) to show them how to do it properly in Gaza. 

17:00 on 30/11/23 (UK date).

Operation: Saxon Needles; Month 2, Week 3, Day 2.

On October 7th 2023 (7/11/23) the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) launched an attack on Israel. This saw Hamas temporarily seize control of some 480km² (260miles²) of Israeli territory along the border with the Gaza Strip.

Within the area under its control Hamas set about systematically taking a large number of hostages, both civilian and military. Something which prime facie (at first sight) appears to be the Crimes Against Humanity of; "Imprisonment," "Enforced Disappearance" and; "Other Inhumane Acts[...] Causing Serious Injury to Body or to Mental or Physical Health." Contrary to Article 7.1(e),(i),(k) of the Rome Statute (1998).

Hamas also set about killing every person they could find within that area that they did not want to take hostage. Something which prime facie represents the further Crime Against Humanity of; "Murder." Contrary to Article 7.1(a) of the Rome Statute (1998).

Although not all of those Hamas killed were Jews the vast majority of them were. Making a strong prime facie case that Hamas had also committed the Crime Against Humanity of; "Extermination", commonly referred to as; "Genocide" with the purpose of persecuting a Ethnic/Religious Group. Contrary to Article 7.1(b),(h) of the Rome Statute (1998).

The accusation that Hamas has committed Crimes Against Humanity is further strengthened by the manner in which it carried out its killings. Which not only seemed to show an understanding of the religious beliefs of the group they were targeting but also a desire to use those religious beliefs to inflict the maximum suffering.

Although I think it is a fundamental human truth, shared between all cultures and religions. The sanctity of the human body is particularly important within Judaism. The Torah states that the human body is created B'tselem Elohim (in the image of God) and remains the property of God. Humans are merely given the right to occupy that body for the duration of their lives. They have no more right to damage or destroy it than a tenant has the right to smash up an apartment they are renting.

This sanctity of the human body even extends into death. If a body is less than whole it cannot be returned to God. Through a funeral as defined by Jewish religious law, Halach.

In killing victims they believed to be Jews Hamas paid special attention to making sure their bodies were damaged and destroyed to the greatest extent possible. In order to maximise the pain experienced by their survivors by trying to deny them even burial and mourning rites.

It is certainly one of the more bizarre arguments I've heard over recent weeks. Whether Hamas deliberately burned a Jewish baby alive by putting it in an oven and then switching the oven on. Or whether Hamas deliberately burned a Jewish baby alive by setting fire to the entire house around it.

It might just be my delicate leftwing sensibilities showing. However I don't think there's a right way to deliberately burn any baby alive.

A great many of the bodies of those killed by Hamas were not just beheaded they were completely dismembered, cut up into multiple small pieces. Those small pieces were then burnt in an effort to cremate them. Something which is also forbidden under Halach.

As a result it has been very difficult to tell what is a body part. Let alone how many bodies those parts add up to. The gruesome work of recovering, tallying and identifying those killed is not so much being done by the Israeli police but Archaeologists from the Israeli Antiquities Board.

Due to the sheer complexity of the task Israel has not yet been able to give a final death toll nor a final total of those kidnapped. What they thought were the remains of many different bodies have turned out to be the remains of just one body. While what they didn't think were human body parts have turned out to be the remains of people they thought had been kidnapped.

One such example is Vivian Silver who was a Director of the legendary Israeli Human Rights charity B'Tselem. Whose name was specifically chosen to remind more religious, extremist, Israeli Jews that all of mankind is created in the image of God. Even Palestinian Muslims living on the Israeli Occupied West Bank.

With no evidence of a body or any contact from her Vivian Silver was considered missing, presumed kidnapped. However on November 14th (14/11/23) it was confirmed that remains found in her burned out home in Kibbutz Be'eri belonged to her. Confirming that she had been killed on October 7th.

Likewise on November 19th (19/11/23) the remains of the 12 year old Liel Hetzroni had also been found at Kibbutz Be'eri. The delay in identifying them being due to them being dismembered and burned. Then mixed in with the dismembered and burned remains of Liel's twin brother Yanai Hetzroni, her aunt, Ayala Hetzroni and grandfather Avia Hetzroni.

On September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) the US suffered one of the worst, if not the worst, terrorist attacks in history. Over 23 years later, to this day, I still don't think the US is able to provide a final, comprehensive death toll. It certainly hasn't been able to identify all of those killed.

Almost immediately as Hamas launched its attack the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) launched a counter-offensive. This included ground operations within Israel and airstrikes within the Gaza Strip.

With the Israel-Palestine Conflict there is a concept known as; "The War Between The Wars." Everyone involved knows that there is going to be another round of fighting. So they use the time between rounds of fighting to prepare for the next round of fighting.

Particularly for the IDF this means the maintenance of what's known as a; "Target Bank." A detailed intelligence picture of enemy military assets and what they do. Which ones will have to be destroyed and when in order to achieve particular military objectives.

The initial airstrikes that the IDF carried out in Gaza were what's known as; "Suppressive Fire." They destroyed Hamas military assets within the target bank. In order to prevent those military assets being able to join Hamas' war against Israel. A particular focus was on Hamas' Nahkba Commando force which led the ground attack into Israel. Over 1,000 members of the Nahkba force were killed in the first week of IDF airstrikes.

The IDF also paid particular attention to killing senior commanders who were part of Hamas' Command & Control system. In order to stop that Command & Control system from functioning in its efforts to continue its attack against Israel.

So this image of the IDF going on some sort of revenge fuelled rampage could not be further from the truth. They've been conducting a highly professional military operation against well researched targets in order to achieve clear military objectives.

By the early hours of October 10th (10/10/23), after a little over three days, the IDF had been able to completely expel Hamas from Israeli territory. From then onwards the IDF's airstrikes in Gaza began to evolve. From suppressing the enemy to shaping the battlefield. While the IDF continued to carry out strategic strikes against Hamas' Command & Control systems and military resources it began to focus much more on tactical targets. Individual fighting positions like bunkers, tunnels and, particularly, rocket launching sites.

Hamas has long focused the bulk of its operations in North Gaza. Its Parliament, the official seat of its government is located in Gaza City. The most northerly city in Gaza. Primarily this is because Hamas' main purpose is to attack Israel and kill Israelis. North Gaza is closer to central Israel, important cities like Jerusalem and the capital Tel Aviv. It is much easier to Hamas to deliberately fire rocket artillery at civilians in those cities from North Gaza than from South Gaza.

Being well aware of this the IDF knew that the bulk of its airstrikes were going to have to be directed against North Gaza. As that is where the bulk of Hamas' Command & Control systems and fighting positions are.

So as early as October 13th (13/10/23), just six days into the war they'd had imposed on them, the IDF started instructing civilians to evacuate North Gaza for their own safety. Using a variety of means including telephone calls, Direct Messages on Social Media and, the more traditional, airdropped leaflets.

Unfortunately Atrocity Propaganda has long been a central part of Hamas' military strategy, really since its formation in 1987. It deeply embeds its military forces into the civilian population. In order to make its military forces indistinguishable from the civilian population. The War Crime of; "Perfidy." Contrary to Article 23 of the Hague Convention (1907).

Hamas' widespread Atrocity Propaganda has been likened to the use of Human Shields. Itself a War Crime, contrary to Article 8.2(b)(xxiii) of the Rome Statute (1998). However it goes far beyond and is far more horrific than that.

I think most of us have a vague concept of what a Human Shield is. We've all seen it in some TV show or other. The baddie is cornered by the goodies who have got their guns draw. So the baddie grabs a hostage and holds them in the way of the goodies' guns. Knowing that the goodies won't risk hurting the hostage to kill the baddie.

Hamas's objective is not to use Palestinian civilians to stop the IDF from attacking them. Hamas' objective is to force the IDF to kill as many Palestinian civilians as possible. To allow Hamas to scream; "Atrocity!" and demand that action is taken to punish Israel.

If Hamas can't get the IDF to kill enough Palestinian civilians then Hamas will simply lie about the number of Palestinian civilians being killed. If that doesn't work then Hamas will simply murder Palestinian civilians itself.

We were given a good example of Hamas' Atrocity Propaganda at work on October 17th (17/10/23). When a rocket fired by the Hamas allied Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PiJ) struck the al-Alhi Hospital. Hamas immediately claimed that this had been an Israeli airstrike and the over 850 civilians had been killed. Once it had been explained to Hamas that we had all seen the evidence and could all clearly see that it was a PiJ rocket the death toll suddenly fell to below 500. Still a massive overstatement of the actual death toll of around 15.

So Hamas responded to the IDF's instruction for civilians to evacuate the North of Gaza by instructing them to stay where they were. Dismissing the IDF's instructions as propaganda. Something which I'm sure all those Western media outlets who been slavishly repeating Hamas' statements must have seen and heard for themselves.

Hamas' attempts to keep civilians in the firing line however extended much further that simply telling them to ignore the IDF's instructions. Hamas forcibly stopped civilians from leaving the Combat Zone by threatening them with imprisonment and beatings. Administering beatings and stealing people's cars so they couldn't leave. On October 15th (15/10/23) Hamas even bombed a convoy carrying civilians leaving the Combat Zone. Obviously blaming it on an IDF airstrike.

A key event occurred on November 10th (10/11/23) when the Commander of Hamas' Naser Radwan Company, Ahmed Slam, was killed by an IDF airstrike. In the school at al-Buraq where he had established his command centre. Ahmed Slam was specifically tasked with keeping 1,000 Palestinian civilians prisoner at the al-Rantisi Hospital, where Hamas had a major military base. Ahmed Slam's killing finally allowed those 1,000 Palestinians to flee. Joining a total of around 200,000 Palestinian civilians to flee the combat zone as Hamas' control of the area collapsed.

As early as October 14th (14/10/23), seven days after the war that had been imposed upon it, the IDF began mounting ground operations within the Gaza. Initially these were small, reconnaisance raids, intended to assess the terrain and search for the hostage. The largest of these operations came on October 26th (26/10/23). It was accompanied by a raid by the IDF's elite naval Special Operations Forces (SOF) Shayetet 13 in South Gaza targeting Hamas' own naval SOF's. It did not turn about to be a battle of the elites.

The IDF launched the main part of the ground element of its counter-offensive on October 28th (28/10/23) with its troops entering on three axis; Beit Lahia in the North-West, Beit Hanoun in the North-East and Juhar al-Din in the East. From that point onwards the IDF's airstrikes began to focus much more closely on providing; "Close Air Support" to its ground troops.

This Eastern, Juhar al-Din axis' task was to push West, splitting Gaza into two sections. North Gaza, the Combat Zone and South Gaza, the Non-Combat Zone. On October 30th (30/10/23) it reached the central Salah al-Din Road. On November 6th (6/11/23) it reached the coastal al-Rashid Road, completing its task and dividing Gaza into a Combat Zone and a Non-Combat Zone.

Having taken control of the Salah al-Din Road the IDF then opened a Humanitarian Corridor along it on November 5th (5/11/23). To allow civilians to flee from the Combat Zone into the Non-Combat Zone under a Daily Ceasefire operating between 13:00 and 16:00 (local). Unfortunately on that first day the IDF were not in full control of the area. This allowed Hamas to attack the Humanitarian Corridor with artillery and mortar fire. In a further effort to trap Palestinian civilians within the Combat Zone.

Fortunately by the following day, November 6th (6/11/23) the IDF had been better able to secure its control over the Salah al-Din Road. Allowing Palestinian civilians to use it without fear of attack by Hamas. That Humanitarian Corridor and the Daily Ceasefire has been in place ever since.

The North-West, Beit Lahia axis and the North-West Beit Hanoun axis advanced South clearing their way into Gaza City. On October 31st (31/10/23) they entered the Jabalia district of Gaza City.

The key series events occurred on November 9th (9/11/23) and November 10th (10/11/23). On November 9th (9/11/23) the IDF captured Hamas' so-called; "Outpost 17" in the Jabalia district. This triggered a collapse of Hamas forces in Jabilia. Giving the IDF control over the area city. 

On November 10th (10/11/23) the IDF captured Hamas' so-called; "Badr Outpost" in the coastal Shati district of Gaza City. The loss of this large complex of fighting positions and bases triggered another significant collapse of Hamas forces. Giving the IDF control over that area of the city.

By November 13th (13/11/23) 10 of Hamas' 24 battalions in North Gaza Combat Zone had lost what is known as; "Combat Effectiveness."

You can almost think of any conventional military force as being divided into small teams. From as; "Fire Team" made up of 3 people. All the way up to a; "Division" made up of 12,000 people. Although different militaries use different sizes and structures. A Hamas Battalion is 1,200.

I think we all know that a football team is made up of 11 players. If a player misbehaves during a match they can be sent off. If five players from the same team get sent off then the 6 remaining players are no longer considered to be effective as a team. So have to forfeit the match by a score of 2-0.

It's similar concept with the teams military forces are divided into. If enough members of one of these teams is killed, wounded or captured then it is no longer effective in combat. It has lost its combat effectiveness. Although, obviously if you have lost half a Division of 12,000 then you still have a pretty effective Brigade of 6,000.

With Hamas all but defeated as a military force in the North Gaza Combat Zone. The IDF then set to work clearing and securing the more politically sensitive Hamas facilities in the Combat Zone.

Central to Hamas' strategy is Atrocity Propaganda. The War Crime of; "Perfidy." They deeply embed their military forces within the civilian population in order to maximise the number of Palestinian civilians killed. A significant part of this strategy is the 480km (300 mile) network of underground tunnels and bunkers Hamas has constructed beneath civilian buildings across Gaza. The so-called; "Gaza Metro."

It is a particularly nasty element of Hamas' Atrocity Propaganda that they have deliberately built many of the largest bunkers and main nodes of this tunnel network under not just civilian buildings but hospitals. Particularly the al-Rantisi Hospital and the al-Shifa Hospital, the largest hospital in Gaza.

In the summer of 2014 the IDF fought a small skirmish against Hamas in Gaza; "Operation: Protective Edge." This grew out of an IDF operation against Hamas in the Occupied Palestinian West Bank; "Operation: Brother's Keeper." What caused Brother's Keeper to expand into Protective Edge was an attempt by Hamas to use a tunnel from Gaza to kidnap and kill Israeli civilians at Kibbutz Sufa. Forcing the IDF to go in to destroy the parts of the Gaza Metro which reached into Israel.

It was very much the rhythm of Protective Edge. That Hamas would loudly condemn the; "Evil, Genocidal, Zionist IDF!" for attacking a Mosque or school. Then three hours later the IDF would show the World the tunnels and weapons they had recovered from that Mosque or school.

That Hamas had a large military installation at/under al-Shifa hospital was known about even then. Gaza's economy actually took a significant hit when Hamas started building it around 2012. At that time Gaza's economy was heavily reliant on goods smuggled via tunnels from Egypt. That business was shut down when Hamas forced all the tunnel builders to move North.

Hospitals have a special protected status under the Laws of War, Article 18 of the First Geneva Convention (1884). However that doesn't mean you can just call any building a hospital and stop your enemy from attacking it.

To have; "Protected Status" a hospital has to be registered as such with all parties to the conflict and the International Committee of the Red Cross/Crescent (ICRC). Only the ICRC can afford a hospital Protected Status. It can only do so if certain conditions are met. The main one being that it is not being used for; "Harmful Acts."

The First Geneva Convention doesn't actually define; "Harmful Acts." Leaving it entirely up to the attacking force to decide. However it is customarily understood to mean the presence of any combatants - those in military uniform, the presence of weapons or the use in support of any military activity - other than the provision of medical treatment.

Protocol I (1977) to the Geneva Conventions attempts to narrow the definition of Harmful Acts to exclude; "Small-Arms and Ammunition" which are incidental to the hospital's function. However neither Hamas nor Israel are party to that Protocol. So it does not apply here.

Even if an attacking force decides that a hospital no longer has Protected Status as it is being used for Harmful Acts they can't just attack it. Instead they have to notify all parties to the conflict and the ICRC that they no longer consider it as having Protected Status. They then have to allow time for it to be evacuated.

On October 27th (27/10/23) the IDF informed all parties to the conflict, the ICRC and the entire World that it no longer considered al-Shifa to have Protected Status. Publically sharing some of the evidence it had that Hamas was using al-Shifa for Harmful Acts. Things which go far beyond the definition in Protocol I (1977), let alone the much border customary definition of the First Geneva Convention.

Yet Hamas refused to evacuate al-Shifa. Instead forcing uninjured civilians to remain there. Not really in the hope that it would prevent their military complex being attacked. More in the hope that the maximum number of Palestinian civilians would be killed when Hamas' military complex was attacked.

Worse than that the ICRC and the World Health Organisation (WHO) also refused to evacuate al-Shifa. It would be nice to believe that was simply because they were too afraid of Hamas to evacuate the hospitals. Sadly though I think it's because those supposedly neutral bodies have to come to not only support Hamas but its Atrocity Propaganda.

What is considered "Ample Time" is not really defined in the Laws of War. However I think that it would be hard to argue that the three weeks, 21 days, the IDF left between revoking al-Shifa's Protected Status and launching its operation were not sufficient.

In launching its operation to clear and secure al-Shifa the IDF didn't bomb it from the air, as the Laws of War permit it to. Instead it began its attack by opening a Humanitarian Corridor on November 12th (12/11/23). To allow civilians to evacuate along al-Wadha Street to the Salah al-Din Humanitarian Corridor.

When the IDF finally moved in on al-Shifa they didn't really do so treating it as a military operation. Instead they treated is as a civilian policing operation. Using the approach any Western police S.W.A.T team would use if they had to clear a hospital that had been overrun by a group of gunmen. Slowly clearing the building room-by-room, floor-by-floor. Placing the safety of civilians, patients, medical staff and even the gunmen above the safety of their own forces.

You were able to tell that the IDF had been able to take control of al-Shifa by November 19th (19/11/23). The ICRC and the WHO realised that, after three weeks of claiming it was impossible, they were suddenly able to evacuate patients from al-Shifa after all. An event which coincided with the realisation that they couldn't claim they'd been martyred in an IDF Atrocity.

Just as you could tell that Hamas had all but collapsed as a military force within the North Gaza Combat Zone by November 12th (12/11/23). By the 200,000+ Palestinians who were suddenly able to evacuate to safety in the Non-Combat Zone.

There is still some intense close quarter fighting going on in the North Gaza Combat Zone and the IDF is still taking casualties. However this is really just a mopping up operation now. With the IDF attempting to fully secure an area over which they have operational control.

 

 

 

20:17 on 21/11/23 (UK date).