Brexit and the
Northern Irish Question: Of the 41 nations competing at this year's contest 28
of them are members of the European Union (EU). Of the ones that aren't it is
quite common for them to use the Song Contest to show off their liberal,
western credentials in order to increase their chances of becoming EU members.
Therefore
Britain's decision to Exit the EU (Brexit) has certainly caught attention this
year.
The United
Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK): At the 2016 Song Contest
Britain was represented by Joe and Jake with the song; "You're Not
Alone." This was intended as the British state reassuring the EU that it
would do everything in its power to ensure that Britain remained and EU member
following the June 2016 referendum.
With the
resolution of MP Jo Cox the British state clearly upheld its promise. However
voters saw things differently.
As such this
year's song; "Never Give Up On You" is intended as the British state
saying that it wasn't lying when it made last year's promises and still very
much wants to remain a member of the EU.
It then goes on
to look at some of the reasons why people voted the way they did. Obviously the
bulk of the song is written from the perspective of people who voted to remain.
However it also touches on people who voted to leave out of a patriotic
devotion to Britain and others who voted to leave because they feel the EU is
no longer working.
It also touches
on people like me who I think you would describe as; "Reluctant
Leavers." I voted to leave not because of any patriotic devotion to
Britain or any passionate opposition to the principles of the EU. Instead I
voted to leave out of more of vague feeling that both Britain and the EU would
be better off if they went their separate ways.
One of the main
things that came out of the Court cases following the Brexit vote is that
despite being an EU member the UK does not officially recognise any of the
treaties of the EU. This is just a symptom of the fact that Britain has never
really felt comfortable as an EU member.
Then of course
there is the fact that Britain is not a member of the EU's single currency -
the Euro. Following the Eurozone crisis triggered by the 2008 economic crash
Britain eventually had to be excluded from EU meetings on how to respond.
That's because Britain kept disrupting the meetings to keep the crisis going in
order to make the British economy look good by comparison.
A similar thing has
happened with Britain being one of the main nations pushing for EU sanctions on
Russia. This hasn't been done because Britain is a huge supporter of either
Shamali Province or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Instead it
has been done because Britain knows that the sanctions will damage the Eurozone
economy making the British economy look good by comparison.
In fact
following the Brexit vote the value of the British Pound which had been kept
artificially high due to Britain's meddling in the Eurozone collapsed revealing
its true value against the Euro.
Britain's song
this year is performed by Lucie Jones who is Welsh. If my famously Welsh
grandmother were still alive I don't doubt she'd find a way to prove we're
distantly related.
Particularly in
the stage performance the song tries to invoke the theme songs from the famous
James Bond movies. Particularly the ones sung by that other famous Welsh singer
Shirley Bassey. However Lucie Jones clearly has neither the impressive vocal
power nor range of Shirley Bassey.
As I've said
before I think it is unwise for the Brits to turn Brexit negotiations into a
contest of who the EU loves more; Them or me. After all I think we all know who
Britain's most dashing spy is.
Shirley Bassey
was actually played by recently Oscar nominated Irish actress Ruth Negga in a 2011
British TV movie; “Shirley.” Ruth Negga went on to appear in Marvel's Agents of
S.H.I.E.I.L.D. However she remains a completely different sort of; "Black
Irish."
One of the most
interesting things to come out of the Brexit vote is the Northern Irish
question.
Even throughout
the 600 some years of British occupation Ireland was always a united country.
In was only during the wars of independence in the 1920's that the country was
partitioned creating Northern Ireland to allow Protestants who despised being
ruled by Catholics to remain part of the UK under Protestant rule.
The people of
Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU at the June
referendum. So if they decided they want to be part of the EU more than they
want to be part of the UK it would be relatively easy for them to vote to end
the roughly 100 year old partition and rejoin the Republic of Ireland which
remains an EU member.
The Good Friday
Agreement that ended the Northern Irish Troubles actually prevents the British
government blocking a referendum on Irish re-unification. The only thing that
has stopped it happening already is that being the largest party in the
power-sharing government gives Protestant parties a veto power.
The Protestant
parties have just lost that veto power due to a shrinking majority. As such the
EU has already established as part of their Brexit negotiating position a
united Ireland will automatically be a full EU member.
The Good Friday
Agreement also forbids the creation of border controls between Northern Ireland
and the Republic of Ireland. Its membership of the UK prevents the
establishment of border controls between Northern Ireland and the British
mainland. However one of the main drivers of the Brexit vote was a desire to
establish border controls between the British mainland and the EU.
So this all has
the potential to get very interesting.
The Republic of
Ireland: This year they were represented by Brendan Murray. He was reasonably
successful within Ireland in the boyband "Hometown" before going
solo Harry Styles style. He is from the western Irish city of Galway.
Located just
north of Athenry Galway has become reasonably famous of late. The British
singer Ed Sheeran has topped charts across Europe with his plagiarised version
of the traditional Irish song; "Galway Girl." Breaking from this
boyband past and picking up and Ed Sheeran style guitar Brendan Murray is very
much a Galway Boy.
So it seems that
if there is one thing to unite the island of Ireland it is mockery of Ed
Sheeran.
Ireland's song
this year is; "Dying to Try." Taken at face value this suggests that
the Republic of Ireland is desperate to try and take advantage of Brexit to
create a united Ireland.
The thing is
though that not everyone living in the Republic of Ireland is an Irish Catholic
and not everyone living in Northern Ireland is a British Protestant. Hence all
the troubles.
For example I've
never set foot in any part of Ireland but I qualify for Irish citizenship and
have a very Irish family name. I've got relatives who've lived all their lives
in the Republic of Ireland but have very English family names.
Traditionally it
is the few remaining Irish Protestants who control the Republic of Ireland's
Eurovision entry. So this song Dying to Try carries with it an air of;
"Try it & We'll Kill You."
This suspicion
that Ireland's Protestants are not being honest about their desire for a united
Ireland was added to by the fact that heir to the hated British Crown Prince
Charles spent Eurovision week touring Northern Ireland and the Republic of
Ireland.
At the same time
Ireland’s outgoing blueshirted Fine Gael Prime Minister Edna Kenny
had invited the EU Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier to tour both Northern
Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
Prince Charles’
first stop on his tour was a centre celebrating famous Nobel Prize winning poet
Seamus Heaney in London/Derry.
Amongst politicians
and diplomats Heaney's most famous work is the poem; "Wheels Within
Wheels." This is about the non-linear nature of life that means within
politics the most effective route is rarely the most direct one. For example on
a bicycle you peddle up and down in order to move forward.
This is something
that is particularly relevant to ISIL and their northern or Shamali Province.
According to the
US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) their former President Barack Obama
created ISIL and supported them with an undying devotion. Russian President
Vladimir Putin of course has always opposed ISIL.
That meant that
Obama wanted to sanction Russia for opposing ISIL. However he couldn't admit to
voters that's what he wanted to do.
So instead Obama backed Nazis and neo-Nazi
militias to overthrow Ukraine's government creating Shamali Province and
plunging the region into seemingly never ending chaos. Obama could then use
that chaos as a publicly acceptable excuse to impose pro-ISIL sanctions on
Russia.
The sanctions
Obama imposed on Russia actually have very little to do with those involved in
the current fighting in Shamali Province. Instead they target wide sectors of
the Russian economy such as banking and the oil industry.
They also target
people within Putin’s inner social circle. Although I’m using a bit of artistic
license they go after people like Putin’s wife’s hairdresser, his pet’s dog
groomer and his children's school.
The intention of
these sanctions is not to bring peace to Shamali Province. Instead they are intended
to heap pressure on Putin personally. Now Putin is a man of the world so he
knows these sanctions are over his opposition to ISIL.
Therefore the US’
objective is that Putin will respond to this personal pressure by dropping his
opposition to ISIL. There even seems to be a hope that he will compensate for
this public climb down by starting to interfere in Shamali Province making the
situation much worse then it currently is.
As such key to
the defeat of ISIL is the removal of these sanctions on Russia. The first step
in doing that was preventing Obama's designated successor Hillary Clinton
becoming President.
Once that had
been achieved the Democrats tried turning a cog back in the opposite direction
by accusing Russia of interfering with the US election to defeat Hillary
Clinton.
The intention being to portray President Trump as a Russian spy in
order to make it impossible for him to remove Obama's sanctions on Russia. Effectively
holding Trump and the world to ransom
In order to end
the fighting in Shamali Province America needs to replace Obama's sanctions
against Russia with a new package targeting all those and only those who are in
violation of the Minsk Protocol.
Shamali Province’s
jury vote actually gave maximum points to Minsk. However if the last two years of Eurovision has taught us anything it's that Shamali Province just doesn't think that the rule which apply to everyone else also apply to them.
In order to
achieve either of those things President Trump needs to be freed of the
restrictions placed on him by the Democrats wild and unsubstantiated
accusations.
So this week the
big step in defeating ISIL and restoring a peaceful Ukraine has been the firing
of FBI Director James Comey.
He is of course
the man who inexplicably declined to seek charges against Hillary Clinton over
110 charges of espionage. The specific offences that Comey found that Clinton
had committed
relate to
sub-section 793(f) of Title 18 of the US Criminal Code. This is sometimes
referred to as the 1917 Espionage Act.
These offences
are offences to negligence. Therefore the person’s motive is not a factor in
determining their guilt. Any reasonable prosecutor merely needs to demonstrate
that classified documents under that person’s control were improperly stored.
In Hillary Clinton’s this has already been done.
Next week's big
step in defeating ISIL and restoring a peaceful Ukraine will likely be the
firing of Acting Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe.
He of course led
the counter-espionage investigation into Hillary Clinton. However neither
McCabe nor Comey so any reason why this meant his wife should not stand for
election as candidate for the Democrats or why he shouldn't take close to
USD1million payments from the Democrats during the investigation.
Spain: This year
they were represented by Manel Navarro. A boy with a guitar he is very much an
Ed Sheeran/Brendan Murray clone.
However rather
than rising to fame in a boyband Manel Navarro rose to fame by singing cover
versions of other artist’s famous songs. From; “The A-Team” to “Galway Girl” I
think Ed Sheeran should be very concerned about my health. If I were to die suddenly
he’d clearly be out of material.
As I may have
mentioned Frank Ryan and other members of the Irish Republican Army (IRA)
showed the Spanish people a lot of love during their 1936-1939 civil war.
Through this year’s song; “Do It For Your Lover” Spain seems to be genuinely trying
to repay the favour by urging Northern Ireland to press ahead with the dream
of a united Ireland.
Spain also seems
aware of the fact that the Scots have a tendency to appropriate parts of Irish culture
for their own ends. As such by calling for Northern Ireland to rejoin the
Republic of Ireland they also seem to be calling for Scotland to vote to leave
the UK.
Just so Spain
can then slap the Scottish National Party (SNP) hard in the face by vetoing
their membership of the EU.
Romania: This
year they were represented by Ilinca featuring Florea with the song; “Yodel It.”
Brexit obviously
affects of 28 members of the EU. However Romania seems to have a particular
stake in it.
One of the main
drivers that led British voters to support Brexit was immigration.
As the one
of the newer members of the EU Romanians were only free to live and work in the
UK since January 2014. With anti-immigrant feeling already beginning to grow at that point the first Romanian immigrants were greeted at their port of entry by British MP’s
and an army of the British media.
Since then many
Romanians have come to live and work in the UK. Obviously what happens to them
post Brexit will not only affect the UK but also Romania.
At the 2015 Song
Contest Romania were represented by Voltag with the song; “De La Capat/All Over
Again.” This was part of the band’s and the Romanian government’s campaign to
deter Romanian parents from abandoning their children while they went to work
in richer EU member states such as Britain.
Apart from a
minor controversy over an overtly political statement right at the end of
Voltag’s video this promoted a lot of discussion about how mass migration is
not only damaging rich EU nations but also the poorer EU nations the migrants
are flooding out of.
So if Britain
were to pursue a new relationship with the EU that saw a
government-to-government levy paid in return for immigration controls it may
well find an ally in Romania.
Romania’s song
starts with the marching drums. These will no doubt become familiar as
the UK’s upcoming General Election is quickly replaced by the Northern Irish
marching season.
The song also in
moments bears a passing resemblance to the song; “Hall of Fame” by Dublin based
Irish band The Script. It also features yodelling which is the sort of novelty
that Song Contest audiences appreciate.
So although
potentially a British ally I think it’s quite clear Romania would’ve liked the
honour of hosting the 2018 Song Contest as Brexit negotiations are getting
underway.
18:20 on 14/5/17 (UK date).
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