Tuesday 23 May 2017

The Manchester Bombing.

No I'm not talking about the December 1992 bombing in Parsonage Gardens. Nor am I talking about the June 1996 bombing on Corporation Street.

Instead I'm talking about events last night (22/5/17) at the Manchester Evening News (MEN) Arena during a concert by US popstar Ariana Grande. At around 21:35 (22:35 local) an explosion occurred either in or directly outside the public foyer of the building. So far this has killed 22 civilians and wounded 59. Many of them young children.

Statistically when an explosion occurs at a music venue it is far more likely an accident caused by cooking/compressed gas cylinders in one of the venue's many refreshment stands. However police are currently working under the theory that this was a terrorist attack and that it was caused by a suicide bomber detonating an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) carried in a rucksack.

This appears to be similar to events of July 24th 2016 (24/7/16) in Ansbach, Bavaria, Germany. Here a 27 year old Syrian man carrying an IED in a rucksack attempted to enter the Ansbach Open Music Festival. Having been denied entry he detonated his device outside the near-by Eugene's Wine Bar wounding fifteen.

The Ansbach bombing was claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In the last few minutes last night's bombing in Manchester has also been claimed by ISIL.

As to why ISIL would want to carry out such an attack the answer is quite simple. They are currently under intense pressure both in Syria and Iraq.

What I would have liked to have spent today doing is giving you an update on just how close to defeat ISIL are in the Iraqi city of Mosul. They are currently restricted to just the Zanjili and Old City districts of the city.

On Saturday (20/5/17) the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) actually announced they'd ended their offensive operations within Mosul. Their mission is now complete and it falls to the combined Rapid Reaction Force and the Iraqi Federal Police to complete the liberation of the remaining two districts.

On May 10th (10/5/17) ISIL lost control of the Syrian town of Tabqa and the important Tabqa Dam to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). Last Thursday (18/5/17) ISIL launched a desperate offensive to capture towns and villages in Syria's Hama province from Syrian force. This was quickly repelled with ISIL being forced back the following day.

On May 3rd (3/5/17) and May 5th (5/5/17) the latest round of meetings in the Astana Process on Syria took place. Resulting the creation of deconfliction zones this is a complex issue I need to deal with separately. On May 16th (16/5/17) through to May 20th (20/5/17) the latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process on Syria took place. This made very little progress with many factions of the opposition to the Syrian government walking out.

May 7th (7/5/17) through to May 13th (13/5/17) of course saw what would normally be described as the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest. With just three notable exceptions this saw European nations line behind Russia in opposition to ISIL. A reversal of the tone of the previous several years.

The contest was actually very nearly won by Italy with their song in support of the SDF and the vast de facto Safe-Haven designated; "Shangri-La" that they've created within Syria. What stopped Italy winning seems to be a concern that such a clear signal would provoke a violent response. The 2016 Song Contest was marred by the suspected bombing on May 19th (19/5/16) of Egyptair flight MS804 from France to Egypt.

Faced with these mounting defeats and humiliations it has become very important for ISIL to put on a show of strength to demonstrate that they can still project their power.

There seem to be a number of reasons why Britain was chosen for this show of force.

Firstly Britain has quite a large Muslim population. These tend to be the children and grandchildren of immigrants primarily from Pakistan and Bangladesh. Many of them follow the Deobandi or Wahabbist form of Sunni Islam. This makes them particularly vulnerable to radicalisation by groups such as ISIL and Al Qeada.

May 22nd 2017 (22/5/17) actually marks the fourth anniversary of the May 22nd 2013 (22/5/13) murder of British Army Fusilier Lee Rigby in Woolwich, London. This is still celebrated by British Islamist extremists with plots to emulate it being foiled on a seemingly weekly basis.

Also Britain is currently in the grips of a campaign for a General Election on June 8th (8/5/17). In part this seems to have been scheduled for the Islamic holy month of Ramadan in reference to Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's decision to hold Turkey's April 16th (16/4/17) constitutional referendum on Easter Sunday - the Christian equivalent of Eid Mubarak - during Jewish Passover.

Within the British election campaign the only references to terrorism have been whether Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn was linked to the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) who carried out the 1992 and 1996 Manchester bombings. This lack of attention has clearly hurt ISIL's feelings.

The fact that it was a concert venue that was attacked seems a clear and threatening reference to the Eurovision Song Contest. The fact it was an Ariana Grande concert may merely reflect the fact she had the misfortune to be playing at the venue on the Lee Rigby anniversary.

However Ariana Grande is a popstar that has always troubled me. Despite being 23 years old she has the same pubescent body of the 12/13 year old girls who make up much of her fanbase. This type of stunted growth is often an indicator of childhood malnourishment. As we know Ariana Grande didn't grow up in extreme poverty that would suggest some form of mental illness/eating disorder such as Anorexia.

Due to my work in mental health rehabilitation this is a topic I am all too familiar with. In fact through the Duke of Cambridge/Prince William's "Heads Together" campaign the UK seem to be boasting that my experience will make them World leaders on mental health issues.

I was forced to discuss this following the airing of the third episode of the fourth season - "The Final Problem" - of the UK TV show "Sherlock." ISIL responded to the first episode of that season -"The Six Thatchers" - by conducting terror attacks against the Iraqi cities of Baghdad and Samarra. The episode referenced the short-story on the power of fate; "Appointment in Samarra."

ISIL's interest seemed particularly piqued by the fact this season of Sherlock was being broadcast in Russia at exactly the same time it was being first broadcast in the UK. Apart from teaching Twitter users the Russian spelling of Sherlock this certainly hinted at a warming of the relationship between the UK and Russia.

The Russians seemed to respond by leaking the Final Problem episode on the Internet the day before its scheduled broadcast. In yet another "Russian Hacking Scandal."

The tour in which Ariana Grande was performing as part of is called the; "Dangerous Woman Tour." I don't think anyone is going to dispute that description of Ariana Grande today.

Not only does it share the promoter - Live Nation - but Ariana Grande's DWT also shares an acronym with Rihanna's 2013 Diamonds World Tour (DWT). That sucked up almost an entire year of my life so involved many things. For example the April 15th 2013 (15/4/13) Boston Marathon bombings and their implicit threat to Russia.

However the main objective of the tour was to drive Rihanna into some sort of psychotic breakdown/mental health emergency while in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE) on October 19th 2013 (19/10/13).

This was supposed to serve as a US apology to the Gulf Monarchies for causing the Arab Spring. Apparently the Arab Spring was not caused by a young, educated population yearning for secular democracy or demographic pressures such as high unemployment. Instead it was all the result of Rihanna appearing alongside Jay Z and Kanye West in the 2009 song; "Run This Town."

I don't remember saying that the Diamonds World Tour made much sense. Particularly the bit where the Americans thought it would befuddle the European nations who compete in the Eurovision Song Contest every damn year.

Finally the city of Manchester is home to Manchester United football club. If not their fans.

Tomorrow (24/5/17) Manchester Utd will play the Dutch side Ajax in the Europa League cup final. This match will be played in Stockholm, Sweden.

A few hours before the Manchester explosion Swedish authorities were forced to shutdown Landvetter airport near Gothenburg. They'd discovered a suspicious bag that tested positive for explosive residue. Fortunately that bag has since been found not to contain a bomb.

The US has recently introduced a ban on laptop computers being carried in cabin luggage on civilian flights. This is because the explosive residue tests applied to cabin luggage are significantly less accurate than the explosive residue tests applied to hold luggage.

This Saturday (27/5/17) sees the Scottish and English FA Cup Finals being played at Glasgow's Hampden Park and London's Wembley Stadium respectively. This marks the end of the domestic league season.

Next Saturday (3/6/17) sees the Champions League Final being played at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff, Wales. This marks the end of the European football season.

So aside from the immediate damage and loss of life last night's Manchester bombing does seem intend to give the British Establishment a lot of headaches.

09:30 on 23/5/17 (UK date).

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