Operation Featherweight: Month 31, Week 4, Day 3.

I've not sure if I've mentioned this before.

Key to the defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria and beyond is a roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of Syria's northern border with Turkey. Known as; "Garvaghy Road" this spans between the Euphrates River to the east and the towns of Azaz/Kilis to the west.

On December 30th 2015 (30/12/15) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) liberated the Tishrin Dam from ISIL. This allowed them to cross the Euphrates into the Garvaghy Road area. On August 27th 2016 (27/8/16) the SDF were finally able to liberate the town of Manbij from ISIL. This sits roughly 30km (18 miles) west of the Euphrates within the Garvaghy Road area.

On the night of August 23rd (23/8/16) into August 24th (24/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan dispatched the Turkish military to formally invade and occupy Syria within the Garvaghy Road area. The objective of this wholly illegal invasion was to prevent the SDF advancing further across the Garvaghy Road cutting ISIL's supply lines with Turkey.

On the first day of this invasion Erdogan's forces focused their attentions on the town of Jarablus. This sits right on the western bank of the Euphrates some 35km (21 miles) north of Manbij and directly on the border with Syria.

Once Jarablus had been seized Erdogan initially then planned for his forces to attack the SDF at Manbij. However under international pressure he was forced to divert his attentions westwards first to the town of al-Rai followed by Azaz on the western border of Garvaghy Road and then finally onto Marea which is around 20km (12 miles) south-east of Azaz.

Following the capture of of Marea in mid-to-late October Erdogan turned his forces attentions to the town of al-Bab in mid-to-late November. Located roughly 30km (18 miles) north-east of Aleppo City and 55km (33 miles) south-east of Manbij and sitting at the intersection of the M4 Motorway and the H212 Highway al-Bab is the key supply node within Garvaghy Road.

Al-Bab is a town of just 20kmsq (12 milesq). However some nearly three months after starting their operation Erdogan's forces have still not managed to capture al-Bab. The reason for this is that they haven't really been trying.

As within the rest of Garvaghy Road Erdogan's objective in al-Bab has not been defeat ISIL. Instead it has been to re-brand ISIL by absorbing ISIL members into the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who fight as an irregular and therefore illegal division of the Turkish military within Syria.

When Erdogan tried this trick in Jarablus he was widely mocked for the fact that this absorption of ISIL fighters into the UTA took less then 12 hours. Therefore within subsequent operations including particularly al-Bab Erdogan has gone to great lengths to make it seem more convincing. You would think that nothing would be more convincing than a long and arduous battle.

However if you look closely at the supposed battle for al-Bab while it has been long it has been far from arduous.

For example on January 31st (31/1/17) Erdogan's forces carried out 207 strikes against ISIL positions. However they only succeeded on hitting 30 targets. On February 1st (1/2/17) Turkey carried out 143 strikes but hit 14 targets. This gives them a success rate of 14% and 9% respectively. That is significantly lower then the near 100% success rate Erdogan's forces achieve when striking anti-ISIL forces both in Syria and Iraq.

During the 12 hour 'battle' for Jarablus Erdogan was also mocked for the spectacularly low casualty rate suffered by his forces. It was so low in fact it was precisely zero. Therefore in subsequent operations - particularly al-Bab - Erdogan's forces have suffered higher casualties.

However to put that in context you must remember that on July 15th 2016 (15/7/16) members of the Turkish military rose up to protect Turkish democracy from Erdogan's creeping dictatorship. During that night around 170 people were killed. 105 of them were members of the Turkish military who were killed by Erdogan supporters who either beat them to death with their barehands, beheaded them in the street or lynched them from the Bosporus Bridge.

Therefore I think it is fair to assume that Erdogan does not value the lives of Turkish soldiers in the same way that other nations value their soldiers.

Apart from the need to make it seem convincing Erdogan also hasn't been in a rush to capture al-Bab because victory there presents something of a poisoned chalice for him.

Erdogan has repeatedly told the Turkish people that his invasion is needed to eliminate what he describes as the terror threat the SDF presents to Turkey. In launching the operation Erdogan told the Turkish people that after Jarablus he would capture Manbij. Erdogan then told the Turkish people that after capturing al-Rai, Azaz, Marea and al-Bab he would then capture Manbij for the SDF.

The problem with this is that the SDF are backed by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). Particularly now that former US President Obama has been replaced by current President Trump it seems extremely unlikely that CJTFOIR will tolerate Erdogan launching an assault against the SDF.

Therefore the moment that al-Bab is declared captured Erdogan faces a tough choice. He can either drag Turkey into a military confrontation with CJTFOIR or admit that he's lied to the Turkish people by acknowledging that his forces won't be attacking the SDF.

An ongoing battle for al-Bab has also allowed Erdogan to place himself in a strong position diplomatically. He has used to this in an attempt to play CJTFOIR and Russia off against each other.

Initially CJTFOIR refused to support Erdogan's operations in al-Bab. However then in late December Erdogan got Russia to support his operations in al-Bab. Fearing that Erdogan would take NATO member Turkey into a military alliance with Russia this prompted CJTFOIR to start supporting Erdogan's operations in al-Bab.

It is through this type of gamesmanship that Erdogan was able to force Russia into inviting the US to the Astana process talks held in Astana, Kazakhstan on January 23rd (23/1/17) and 24th (24/1/17).

However while the al-Bab operation has been dragging on Erdogan's wider plan has hit a bit of a snag.

Initially Erdogan intended to occupy Garvaghy Road - and particularly al-Bab - in order to supply ISIL to the south-east in Raqqa and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition the south-west in Aleppo City. The UTA fight as part of the wider Army of Conquest coalition.

However on December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) the Syrians succeeded in liberating all of Aleppo City from the Army of Conquest. Since then the Syrians have been slowly advancing out of Aleppo City up the H212 road to al-Bab.

By January 28th (28/1/17) Syrian forces had advanced to within 7km (4 miles) of al-Bab. By February 7th (7/2/17) Syrian forces had encircled the south of al-Bab including liberating the M4 Motorway as it runs south to Raqqa - ISIL de facto capital in Syria.

On Thursday (9/2/17) the close proximity between Erdogan's forces and Syrian forces led to Erdogan's forces opening fire on the Syrian troops. This triggered a stand-off which it fell to Russia to defuse. Also on Thursday (9/2/17) Russia conducted an airstrike close to al-Bab which killed three regular members of Erdogan's forces.

Amid this growing pressure of the Syrian advance from Aleppo City Erdogan was forced to relent. On approximately January 31st (31/1/17) Erdogan announced that as soon as al-Bab had been secured he would withdraw his forces from the Garvaghy Road area ending the illegal occupation.

Erdogan also massively sped up efforts to end the battle of al-Bab. On February 2nd (2/2/17) Erdogan's forces carried out 244 strikes hitting 51 targets. That saw their success rate jump from 9% the previous day to 21% and it has been increasing daily. On February 8th (8/2/17) Erdogan declared that his forces had finally entered al-Bab from the south west.

However Erdogan's position changed dramatically on Friday (10/2/17). He has now reversed his pledge to withdraw his forces from Syria and is instead now pledging to advance a further 500km (300 miles) deep into Syrian territory in order to capture not only Manbij but also the cities of Raqqa and Palmyra.

What appears to have driven Erdogan's dramatic change of heart is the actions of three Judges sitting on the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in the US city of San Francisco, California.

On Thursday (9/2/17) they dismissed an application by the US government to overturn a Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) that had been imposed on President Trump's executive actions on immigration. I covered this extensively in posts entitled; "Washington v Justice" and "Washington v Justice: The Do Over."

As I explained in both of those posts the TRO hearing did not address the substance of the initial application. However the three San Francisco Judges did invoke a rarely used part of the US Constitution to apply a series of lower legal tests to the application. The implication being that the application would not pass the standard higher test.

In deciding whether to leave the TRO in place the San Francisco three had to weigh the possibility of financial or emotional harm caused by the executive orders against the actuality of physical harm caused by imposing the TRO. Under what is known as Tort law US Judges are obligated by around 300 years of precedent to give more weight to physical harm than financial or emotional harm.

In short by allowing the TRO to stand the San Francisco 3 have acted wholly unlawfully. They have done this in an effort to block the appointment of Judge Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS).

Under the US Constitution one of the main jobs of SCOTUS is to oversee the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. Although I don't have the exact figures in front of me I gather SCOTUS find that the 9th Circuit have failed to implement the law properly roughly 80% of the time.

As a result it is the job of the President with the backing of Congress to make appointments to SCOTUS. The 9th Circuit most certainly don't get to choose who oversees their work.

Therefore the San Francisco 3's actions are not only unlawful they border on a coup attempt. Not against President Trump but against SCOTUS and the US Constitution itself.

Erdogan has clearly looked at this attempted insurrection and the hole in the wall it has created and seen an opportunity.

Erdogan has calculated that if Trump were to exert pressure on him to end his meddling in Syria he can retaliate by sending terrorists disguised as Syrian refugees from camps in Turkey to carry out attacks against US civilians whilst this TRO is in place.

Just the same as he did on November 13th 2015 (13/1/15) in Paris France. Just the same as he did on March 22nd (22/3/16) in Brussels, Belgium. Just the same as he did on December 19th 2016 (19/12/16) in Berlin, Germany and as he attempted to do August 21st 2015 (21/8/15) aboard a train between Amsterdam, the Netherlands and Paris, France.

The US' vetting of refugees from camps inside Turkey relies heavily an organisation called the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) in conjunction with the Turkish Red Crescent. Both of these organisations affiliation with the International Committee of the Red Cross/Crescent (ICRC) is currently highly controversial at the moment to say the least.

On February 2nd (2/2/17)  the headquarters of the SARC in Idlib City was partially destroyed in an airstrikes. The head of the Turkish Red Crescent immediately condemned this as another example of the Syrian government's crimes against its people claiming that 10 members of SARC's staff had been killed.

However that airstrike has since been claimed by the US. Far from being an accident this strike was a carefully planned, intelligence led strike against an meeting of Al Qaeda leaders. It killed 10. It was followed up by another strike on the same location on February 4th (4/2/17) which succeeded in killing Abu Hani al-Masri.

Abu Hani Al-Masri has been on the US' wanted list since 1998 when he masterminded an attack against the US Embassy in Tirana., Albania. He is reported to a close confident of Osama bin Laden and and a key envoy of current Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.

So a senior Al Qaeda figure infiltrating - at the highest level - an organisation responsible for vetting Syrian refugees directly before they travel to the US. That's certainly something that's changed since Obama's 2015 vetting review and the San Francisco 3's February 9th (9/2/17) ruling.

It almost goes without saying then that the San Francisco 3's - what can't legally be described as a - ruling has been vigorously mocked by the US' allies within CJTFOIR.

Almost immediately as the ruling was made public British police arrested a 44 year old man under the Terrorism Act  as he stepped off a flight from Iraq and London's Gatwick airport. Immediately destroying the San Francisco 3's claim that people don't travel from Iraq for the purposes of terrorism.

The early hours of Friday (10/2/17) separate arrests were made in France and Denmark over plans to use the explosive TATP in separate suicide bomb attacks. Since the Paris Massacres TATP has become known as; "The Flower of Turkey." Clearly there's three people in San Francisco who want to see it boom in the hearts of all Americans.

On Sunday (12/2/17) Germany's Hamburg airport had to be evacuated after a toxic substance was released into the air conditioning system. Erdogan barely ever stops boasting about how effective his Sarin gas was at killing close to around a thousand people in the Damascus suburb of East Ghouta in August 2013.

The Hamburg incident actually seemed to be inspired by an episode of the US TV show; "NCIS: Los Angeles" entitled; "Greed." This centres around a Sudanese government sponsored Al Qaeda cell's attempts to release highly toxic Uranium into the air conditioning system of the Los Angles, California convention centre. As practice which is apparently known as; "Real Estating."

Even Poland who have a deep hatred of Russia started rounding on the San Francisco 3. On Friday (10/2/17) afternoon their Prime Minister Beata Szydlo suffered physical harm in a car accident.

When it comes to stage political coups against constitutions and Supreme Courts Ms Szydlo's Justice & Law Party (PiS) are something of the experts.

Since winning power in 2015 PiS having been trying to oust five Supreme Court Judges who were appointed by their rival Civic Platform (PO) Party. In their place PiS want to appoint Judges who will interpret Poland's constitution in the way the PiS want them to. As a consequence Poland has been sanctioned by the European Union (EU's) rule of law committee.

In making their - I'm going to go with - rant the San Francisco 3 are trying to block the appointment of Gorsuch because he is a textualist which is a traditional Republican approach to constitutional law. Instead the San Francisco 3 are trying to have an adjucant appointed. That is a traditionally Democrat approach to constitutional law.

So when even Poland are telling the San Francisco 3 that they've gone too far in trying to provoke a constitutional crisis it's a fair bet that the San Francisco 3 have gone far too far.

I gather even the California state capital Sacramento has started warning San Francisco and other cities in the state that 200,000 Americans are at great risk of physical injury and death so need to be evacuated.

At around 18:20 on 13/2/17 (UK date) I will pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 19:50 on 13/2/17 (UK date) to add above.

21:15 on 13/2/17 (Uk date).