Operation Featherweight: Month 31, Week 2, Day 7.

On November 8th 2016 (8/11/16) Donald Trump was elected President of the United States.

On January 20th 2017 (20/1/17) Donald Trump was inaugurated as President of the United States.

On the weekend of January 28th 2017 (28/1/17) Donald Trump really arrived as President of the United States.

Beyond his much talked about executive orders on immigration President Trump also met with UK Prime Minister Theresa May and held telephone calls with a host of foreign leaders. He also saw the first of his cabinet picks confirmed by Congress and start work. Most notably Nikki Hayley as the US' Ambassador to the United Nations (UN).

As a result things have been relatively quiet in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups as everybody tries to take it all in.

In terms of that fight President Trump's most significant act so far was the memorandum he signed on January 28th (28/1/17) instructing twelve branches of the US government to draw up a new plan to defeat ISIL. 

Although that memorandum is merely an instruction for those departments to report back to the President within 30 days it is widely believed that President Trump favours the creation of safe-havens - as defined by international law - to protect civilians within Syria.

Obviously I can't speak for the President. Also it is likely to be some time before a new plan goes into effect. After all Rex Tillerson only took up his post as Secretary of State/Foreign Minister yesterday (2/1/17) - some 5 days after the memo had been sent to his office. 

However it is my opinion that if you wish to defeat ISIL the only way to do so is to empower the Syrian Democrat Forces (SDF/QSD) to create these safe-havens. As such I think it is important to consider the history of the SDF.

On March 24th 2004 (24/3/04) a Syrian Sunni-Arab football team from Deir-ez-Zour played a Kurdish team in the city of Qamishlo/Qamishli. 

During the match the Arab fans held up pictures of Iraqi Sunni-Arab dictator Saddam Hussein. This was done in reference to Saddam's Arabization campaigns in Iraqi Kurdistan. These were carried out to change the demographic make-up of the area by expelling and murdering Kurdish civilians in order to move in Sunni-Arab civilians in their place. 

Probably the most well known incident of what was a near 30 year campaign was the March 16th 1988 (16/3/88) Chemical Weapons attack on the Kurdish city of Halabja which killed some 5,000 Kurdish civilians.

Obviously the Kurdish fans did not react well to this and responded by flying the flag of Kurdistan within the stadium. A riot ensued which saw the Qamishlo/Qamishli offices of the Ba'ath Party burned down and a statue of Syria's former President Hafez al-Assad toppled.

The Syrian government responded by sending troops to the city killing around 100 and forcing thousands to flee to Iraqi Kurdistan as refugees. In order to resist the crackdown a Kurdish militia called the People's Protection Units (YPG) was formed. However the unrest quickly ended and the YPG was disbanded.

In 2011 Syria was torn apart as fighting raged between the Syrian government and what became the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF). In response to the spiralling violence the YPG was re-formed on July 19th 2011 (19/7/11).

As their name suggests the newly formed YPG was tasked with protecting civilians in three areas known as; "Cantons" along Syria's border with Turkey. Together these Cantons known from west to east as; "Afrin," "Kobane" and "Cizre" covered approximately 2,330kmsq (1,400milesq).

For the next three years the YPG largely stayed out of the fighting in the rest of Syria. Instead sticking to their mission of protecting the people within the three Cantons.

In July 2012 the Syrian government did attempt to seize the city of Kobane - the capital of the Kobane Canton - from the YPG. However after a stand-off the YPG negotiated a Syrian withdrawal from the area. It was under Hafez al-Assad's own Arabization campaign that Kobane was renamed; "Ayn al-Arab" or literally; "Spring of Arabs."

In November 2012 Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) who are now one of the largest factions in the Army of Conquest attacked the YPG at Serekaniye. This led to a nine month battle for the city on the western border of the Cizre Canton which was eventually won by the YPG in July 2013. It was under Hafez al-Assad's Arabization campaign that Serekaniye was renamed; "Ras al-Ayn."

In 2013 the Syrian government began focusing all its efforts on defeating ISIL. By December 2013 ISIL were very much on the backfoot. So in order to live up to their motto of; "Maintain and Expand" they decided to invade Iraq's predominately Sunni-Arab Anbar province which directly neighbours Syria.

By the summer of 2014 the Syrian government had all but defeated ISIL in Syria. So again in an effort to live up to their motto ISIL decided to invade Iraq's northern Nineveh Province which again neighbours Syria. They did this by fighting their way up through the eastern side of the YPG's Cizre Canton which borders Iraq.

One of ISIL's first acts in Iraq's Nineveh Province was to capture the town of Shingal. After kidnapping and murdering thousands of Yezidis they forced the remaining 60,000 residents of the town up Shingal Mountain where they were left to die. It was as part of Saddam Hussein's Arabization campaign that Shingal was renamed; "Sinjar."

It was the fate of the 60,000 atop of Mount Shingal/Sinjar that finally shamed then US President Barack Obama into action. However it was the YPG that crossed from Syria to climb Mount Shingal/Sinjar to rescue those civilians. They then helped organise Iraq's  Yezidis into the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) self-defence militia.

At the same time that they invaded northern Iraq ISIL also focused their attentions of capturing the YPG controlled Cantons. Specifically the Kobane Canton and the Cizre Canton both along its eastern border with Iraq and from the west at Serekaniye. It was this ISIL attack on the Kobane Canton which led to the truly epic Battle of Kobane city in the winter of 2014/15. 

The second anniversary of the end of that battle came up recently and I must confess that I'd forgotten all about it. I do though still have extremely vivid memories of going out to the supermarket one October day convinced that when I returned some two hours later I would be returning to confirmation that ISIL had overrun the city.

However the YPG did not allow the city to be overrun on that day or any other. On January 26th 2015 (26/1/15) they finally claimed victory after 134 days of intense urban warfare.

On February 21st 2015 (21/2/15) the YPG combined with the Iraqi Peshmerga to conduct an operation to force ISIL from the border between Iraq and the Cizre Canton. This was completed with the liberation of the town of Tel Brak on April 5th 2015 (5/4/15).

Having re-secured both Kobane and Cizre Cantons the YPG launched an operation in May 2015 to join the two Cantons eliminating the ISIL threat to both. This operation was completed on July 10th 2015 (10/7/15) with the liberation of the town of Tel Abyad which sits midway between the two Cantons. At the same time the YPG expanded the southern border of the Kobane Canton with the liberation of the town of Ayn Issa. 

It is this new, expanded area of YPG control that has been designated; "Shangri-La." 

In retaliation for the Tel Abyad operation on June 23rd (23/6/15) ISIL launched a sustained attack on the city of Hasakah which sits just south of what was the Cizre Canton. The objective was to fully capture a city control of which had long been divided between ISIL, the Syrian government and the YPG.

This badly back fired on ISIL. By August 1st 2015 (1/8/15) they'd been routed in the city. In the process of defeating ISIL the YPG had also able to reduce Syrian government control leaving the YPG in control of 75% of Hasakah. Thus expanding the southern boundary of Shangri-La even further.

On June 18th 2015 (18/6/15) the YPG launched an operation to expand the boundary of Shangri-La further westwards from what was the Kobane Canton to the Euphrates River. This was completed on July 27th (27/7/15) with the liberation of the town of Sarrin on the eastern bank of the Euphrates.

In all of these campaigns the YPG have fought so efficiently and heroically against ISIL that it almost brings a tear to my eye just thinking about it. However the true key to the YPG's success has been their skill for negotiation and diplomacy. 

Everywhere they have advanced the YPG have done so by brokering alliances with fragments of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Assyrian Christian and Yezidi militias and local Sunni-Arab tribal forces. This began with two FSA fragments - the Euphrates Volcano/Burkan al-Furat and the Front of Raqqa Revolutionaries/Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa - joining ISIL during the Battle of Kobane. 

As the YPG cleared ISIL from the Cizre Canton in May/June 2015 they were joined by the forces of the al-Sanadid, al-Baggra and Sharabiyya tribes along with the Liberation Brigade/Liwa al-Tahrir FSA fragment.

During the Tel Abyad and Ayn Issa operations the YPG were joined by the Army of Revolutionaries/Jaish al-Thuwar and the Army of Peace/Jaish al-Salam FSA fragments. During the Sarrin operation the Dawn of Freedom/Liwa Fajr al-Hurriya, The Army of al-Qassas/Jaish al-Qassas, Jarablus Brigade/Saraya Jarablus and the Raqqa Front/Jabhat al-Raqqa also joined with the YPG. 

At this point it was decided that there were now so many FSA fragments fighting under the YPG they joined together under Euphrates Volcano to form the Volcano Operations Room.

On October 10th 2015 (10/10/15) the YPG, the Volcano Operations Room and the tribal forces along with the Syriac Military Council (SMC) formed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

Throughout the now nearly 6 years of conflict in Syria former US President Barack Obama's focus has always been on using extreme Islamist forces such as ISIL and the Army of Conquest to overthrow the Syrian government. 

As a result the YPG's diplomacy leading to the formation of the SDF has gone almost unnoticed. In fact I think the YPG's biggest achievement has been keeping it all under the radar. I've certainly avoided calling attention to it in case on being made aware of it Obama would act to sabotage it.

In December 2015 the newly formed SDF launched an operation to liberate the Tishrin Dam from across the Euphrates from ISIL. 

This was successfully completed on December 30th (30/12/15) giving the SDF access to the area between Azaz and the Euphrates know as; "Garvaghy Road." In the process the Northern Sun Brigade/Kata'eb Shams ash-Shamal‎ fragment of the FSA joined the SDF.

13:05 on 3/2/17 (UK date) - More to follow.

Edited around 16:35 on 3/2/17 (UK date) to add; 

On May 31st 2016 (31/5/16) the SDF finally crossed the Euphrates River into the Garvaghy Road area. Their objective was to liberate the town of Manbij on the western bank of the Euphrates from ISIL.

Throughout this operation the SDF were systematically starved of ammunition and support by Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - the US-led coalition. However on August 13th 2016 (13/8/16) the SDF did finally succeed in liberating Manbij.

In the liberation of Manbij the SDF again absorbed a number of fragments of the FSA. These include the Union of Euphrates Jarablus Brigades/Tajamu Kata'ib Furat Jarablus, the Jarablus Hawks Brigade/Suquor al-Jarablus, the Manbij Revolutionary Brigades/Liwa al-Thuwar al-Manbij and the Euphrates Liberation Brigade, Liwa al-Tahrir al-Manbij. 

Crucially the SDF were also joined by the Seljuk Brigade/Selçuklular Tugayı and the Manbij Turkmen Brigade/ Manbij Türkmen Tugayları. These are two Turkmen brigades who had previously fought as part of the Army of Conquest within the United Turkmen Army (UTA) coalition.

Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not like the SDF's liberation of Manbij from ISIL one little bit. 

On August 25th 2016 (25/8/16) Erdogan launched a formal Turkish military invasion of the Garvaghy Road area. This was done specifically to prevent any further SDF advance cutting ISIL's supply lines with Turkey. 

Initially this invasion focused on the Jarablus and from there Erdogan's forces did attempt to attack the SDF at Manbij. However he was diverted first to Azaz at the other side of Garvaghy Road and is currently focused on al-Bab. Erdogan has made it repeatedly clear that from al-Bab he again intends to instruct his forces to attack the SDF at Manbij.

Within Jarablus and other areas of Garvaghy Road Erdogan has embarked on a campaign of what I suppose you would term; "Turkicization." 

As with Hafez al-Assad and Saddam Hussein's campaigns of Arabization this has focused heavily on language. Within Jarablus healthcare and educational services are now only available in the Turkish language. It seems almost inevitable that the name of the town will soon be changed from Jarablus to Cereblus.

Former US President Obama's decision to allow Erdogan's formal invasion and occupation of Garvaghy Road was purely the result of cowardice. 

Erdogan had been lobbying for such an invasion throughout 2015 and preparations had reached such an advanced stage that a prospective D-Day -  December 16th 2015 (16/12/15) - had been set. However under intense international pressure led by Russia Erdogan was forced to back down.

In allowing the August 25th 2016 (25/8/16) invasion Obama did so on the understanding that it would end and all Turkish forces would be withdrawn by September 7th 2016 (7/9/16). However in a second act of cowardice Obama backed down and gave Erdogan permission to keep his forces in Garvaghy Road running guns to ISIL for as long as he liked.

Following this second act of cowardice Obama then went into a sort of blind panic almost randomly showering weapons on any Sunni-Arab element of the SDF he could think of. This included a handful of advanced Mine Resistant, Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles that each cost around USD500,000. 

After about a month US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) who are embedded with the SDF including at Manbij told Obama that they wouldn't be handing out any more weapons. SOCOM then advised Obama to go off and have a long hard think about the program.

Unfortunately the day after his designated successor Hillary Clinton was defeated by President Trump on November 8th 2016 (8/11/16) Obama decided that his panicked plan was a good one. So he announced his intention to press ahead with it by requesting an extra USD500million from Congress to fund it.

The central element of Obama's lame-duck plan is to gather the Sunni-Arab elements of the SDF into a new command structure known as the Syrian Arab Council (SAC). This creates a rival command structure within the SDF which like all military command structures starts with Sipan Herno and then rolls downhill. Obama then planned to arm only this rival structure. 

We saw the first stage of this on last Thursday (27/1/17) with the delivery of around four armed pick-up trucks (Technicals) to the SAC. The SDF was not consulted about this arms shipment.

The other element of Obama's lame-duck plan has been to train a force of around 10,000 Syrian Kurds in Iraq. 

Known as the; "Roj Peshmerga" these are essentially the Syrian Kurds that ran away from ISIL rather than fighting with the YPG. They are formed out of the Kurdish National Council (ENKS) which is the Syrian wing of the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) which currently runs Iraqi Kurdistan under President Masoud Barzani.

The Iraqi Peshmerga who are also under the command or Barzani's KDP are currently still engaged in the operation to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul that has been underway since October 2016. The reason why this operation is taking so long is that the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) who are leading the operation are trying to make the best of a terrible plan that was put into action at completely the wrong time.

The Mosul operation of course began with Turkish troops stationed at the Bashiqa base opening fire on Mosul on the night of Saturday October 15th 2016 (15/10/16). Being more concerned with his gas pipeline into Turkey on Sunday October 16th (16/10/16) Barzani then sided with Erdogan and declared the Mosul operation underway. 

This was while Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi was pleading with the US to delay the operation until the spring of 2017 when it would have been much easier.

So at the moment any member of any organisation under the command of Barzani is going to reasonably face a high degree of suspicion and struggle to prove their worth.

This increase in factionalism is obviously placing the SDF under a high degree of pressure.

The most obvious example of this to me is that the people I've built relationships with over the course of two and a half years are now no longer able to talk to me as freely as they once did. In part this is due to SOCOM's obsession with secrecy. However it's clear that the YPG in particular are struggling to find the words that won't set off some faction or another.

On the ground within Shangri-La there is also clear evidence of this increased tension. For example the SDF are currently - and I would say reasonably - refusing to allow the Roj Peshmerga to re-enter Shangri-La. The Asayish who are the policing arm of the SDF have also increased the detention of people and closure of offices of groups working with the ENKS.

Alongside this creation of a rival command structure within the SDF and the creation of a rival force within Iraq on November 6th 2016 (6/11/16) Obama also ordered the SDF to attack Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.

The first stage of the SDF's operation has been focused on liberating the villages and open farmland around Raqqa. 

This has been hugely successful with the area of Shangri-La under SDF control increasing from 12,000kmsq (7,200 milesq) to 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq). However the SDF wildly under-equipped to liberate the city of Raqqa itself. Any attempt to do so will likely result in them being massacred.

As such it seems that the true objective of Obama's lame-duck plan is to allow ISIL to destroy the SDF. Then the alternative command structures Obama has attempted to create within the SDF such as the SAC along with brigades such as Manbij Turkmen Brigade and the Seljuk Brigade will defect back to the Army of Conquest under the control of Erdogan.

Therefore Obama's lame-duck plan must be abandoned immediately and we must wait for the damage it has done to repair itself. 

Although the January 21st (21/1/17) push towards the Tabqa Dam was a great statement of intent against an achievable target it is not a viable strategic plan in itself.

At around 18:30 on 3/2/17 (UK date) I have a little more to add along with solving some spelling formatting issues.

Spellchecked and formatted at 16:25 on 4/2/17 (UK date).