Friday 24 February 2017

Operation Featherweight: Month 32, Week 1, Day 5.

Last Sunday (19/2/17) the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias launched an operation to liberate the western half of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

This operation is being supported by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) and the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga who continue to provide perimeter security to the eastern half of the city which was liberated on January 25th (25/2/17).

Yesterday (23/2/17) the ISF launched the most complex manoeuvre of possibly the entire operation. This involved them simultaneously liberating Mosul airport and the Ghazlani military base which sit side-by-side at the southern most tip of Mosul.

By the day's end the ISF had succeeded in liberating 85% of the Ghazlani base and 50% of the airport. This led to some concern that ISF forces would sustain a high number of casualties both from ISIL fighters remaining in the base and the airport and from a possible ISIL counter-offensive on both locations.

Today I am happy to report that no such counter-offensive occurred. In fact at around 09:00 (GMT) this morning the ISF were able to declare Mosul airport to be completely, 100% liberated from ISIL. At around 10:00 (GMT) the ISF were able to declare that the Ghazlani base is also now completely, 100% liberated from ISIL.

Since then the ISF have begun to advance into the Hay al-Tayaran neighbourhood. This sits directly directly to the north of Mosul airport. They also continue to hold the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood to the north-west of Ghazlani base which was liberated yesterday and have advanced into the Hay al-Mamun neighbourhood which sits north-east of Tal al-Rayyan and directly north of the Ghazlani base.

To the west of the city the PMF have continued their advance around the town of Tal Afar. Today they have announced the liberation of the villages of Tal Zalat, Um Musaid and al-Zaytun. Assuming the liberation of al-Zaytun has come from the north-west this almost completely cuts ISIL positions in western Mosul off from ISIL positions in Tal Afar. It also places the PMF around 25km (15 miles) west of Mosul itself.

Also today Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced that he has given the Iraqi Air Force permission to conduct airstrikes against ISIL positions within Syria. This announcement was immediately followed by Iraqi airstrikes against ISIL positions in and around Deir-ez-Zour in Syria. These strikes were carried out in response to the three ISIL bomb attacks conducted against the Bayaa and Sadr City districts of Baghdad last week.

This expansion of Iraqi operations into Syria serves to underline that the ISIL threat to Iraq will not end with the liberation of Mosul. Nor will it end with the liberation of Hawija. Instead it will only end when ISIL have been completely defeated in both Iraq and Syria.

Although former US President Barack Obama seemed to do everything in his power to block it the original plan was that the ISF would defeat ISIL in Iraq sweeping them back into Syria. The ISF would then chase ISIL into Syria and defeat them there too. The expansion of Iraqi strikes into Syria shows that Iraq is still committed to that plan.

Deir-ez-Zour is where the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) are currently focusing their efforts to expand their de facto safe-haven and prepare for the liberation of Raqqa. I think it is fair to assume then that they enjoy Iraqi support even if Iraq's Kurdistan Region is still trying to undermine them.

Also today there has been an ISIL suicide attack on the Turkish occupied Syrian town of al-Bab. This has killed in excess of 50 people - predominately Sunni-Arab civilians. ISIL have also mounted an attack on a Jordanian border post which has killed 15 Jordanian border guards.

Both of these attacks appear to be ISIL's contribution to the Geneva process talks which formally resumed today.

However with those talks taking place I can't go into much detail beyond saying that now the pressure is mounting ISIL seem desperate for the United Turkmen Army (UTA) and the Southern Front to swoop in to their rescue.

18:10 on 24/2/17 (UK date).

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