Well That Wasn't Very Nice.

As they do every year the people of France yesterday (16/7/16) celebrated Bastille Day.

This marks the anniversary of the July 14th 1789 storming of the Bastille prison in Paris. Although the Bastille only contained 7 prisoners at the time its storming by the people was a great symbol of the popular resistance against the corrupt and cruel French Monarchy. It marked the start of the French Revolution.

As such Bastille Day is very much the French equivalent of America's Independence Day. It is celebrated in much the same way with it being a public holiday on which people gather with family and friends and attend large public firework displays.

Last night one such celebration on the Promenade de Anglais in the southern port city of Nice ended in tragedy when a man drove a 25 tonne truck through the gathered crowds. So far 84 people have been confirmed to have been killed. Although hopefully it will not come to pass that number could rise as high as 134 with at least 50 people remaining in critical condition in hospital.

The driver of the truck who was killed bringing the attack to an end has been identified as Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel a 31 year old French/Tunisian dual national of Muslim heritage.

Although he is known to the French police for a range of criminal activity including armed robbery Bouhlel had not previously been linked to radical Islamist terrorism. There is certainly no indication that he had travelled to Syria or Iraq to train with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or an associated group.

As such unlike the November 30th (30/11/15) Paris Massacres or the March 22nd (22/3/16) Brussels attacks this seems to have been the work of a homegrown terrorist rather than a cell that had been trained in Syria or Iraq and then dispatched to Europe to commit acts of terror. Obviously the extent to which Bouhlel had been inspired and/or directed by ISIL is still something that needs to be very carefully investigated.

After all the fact that I am about to say it demonstrates that what I am about to say should be widely known by any ISIL supporter or anyone who has been following the war against them in any level of detail. I am even worried that I myself may have inadvertently been the online intermediary in this attack.

Although it has been some two months since I've covered the war against ISIL directly those two months have seen significant defeats handed to ISIL.

On June 26th (26/6/16) the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) finally liberated the city of Fallujah from ISIL.

The liberation of Fallujah effectively ended ISIL's presence in the vast Anbar province that makes up roughly a third of Iraq's territory. It also reduces the threat to the Iraqi capital Baghdad which sits around 50km (30 miles) to the east. Crucially it also freed a population of around 270,000 from ISIL taxation significantly denting the group's finances.

The big problem with the ISF's Anbar operation is that it began before the operation to liberate the city of Tikrit and the surrounding Saladin province had been fully completed. As such a significant ISIL presence remains in that area. However in comparison to liberating Ramadi and Fallujah clearing ISIL from the areas between Baghdad and Kirkuk should be relatively easy.

This will allow for an operation to liberate Mosul - ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq. Once that is complete all of Iraq will have effectively been liberated from ISIL with the group being forced back into Syria.

Following the liberation of Fallujah the ISIL leadership itself seems to know that the end is coming for them.

There have been numerous rumours that ISIL's senior leaders are being instructed to prepare their fighters to leave both Iraq and Syria and reassemble in Libya. This means that the US-led Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) continued failure to close the supply/escape route known as "Erdogan's Pocket" or "Garvaghy Road" is becoming an ever more critical issue.

However while ISIL's leadership are preparing for the group's evacuation from Iraq and then Syria for the morale of their supporters it has become increasingly important for ISIL to show that they remain a potent force.

So following the liberation of Fallujah ISIL have carried out a series of brutal attacks on Baghdad.

The most significant of these occurred on July 3rd (3/7/16) in the predominately Shia Muslim Karrada district of the city where families had gathered to celebrate the end of Ramadan. Although the majority of the deaths were caused by the ensuing fire rather than the attack itself this killed 275 people making it the worst terror attack in Iraq's history. Take a moment to think about what that means.

While the Anbar operation was underway and prior to the liberations of Ramadi and then Fallujah ISIL extensively targeted Baghdad's Shia districts. Then the objective was to increase tension between Shias and Sunnis in order to prevent Shia militia's collectively known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) from operating in the predominately Sunni Anbar province thus slowing down the operation.

At the time the point was made that the successful completion of the Anbar operation would reduce the threat to Baghdad. Therefore ISIL's renewed attacks on Baghdad are intended to undermine those claims.

Also while the Anbar operation has been underway protests against Iraq's Shia dominated government have taken place under the leadership of prominent Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

As such ISIL's latest attacks on Baghdad's Shia neighbourhoods seem intended to further undermine confidence in the Iraqi government in order to force more of the Shia population to join the protests. Judging by the way that today's protests have brought tens of thousands to the streets of Baghdad's Tahrir square prompting the Internet to be shut down across the city ISIL's plan seems to be working.

Obviously ISIL's ultimate aspiration in supporting al-Sadr's protest movement is to bring down the Iraq government meaning that there is no Iraqi military to fight them. Failing that though ISIL seem intent on tricking the people of Baghdad into demanding the government deploys more forces to protect Baghdad. Those forces of course then can't be deployed to the areas surrounding Tikrit and Mosul further delaying the complete liberation of Iraq.

The other big recent humiliation for ISIL has been the recent Euro 2016 football tournament held in France. In the weeks running up to this tournament ISIL repeatedly threatened that they would launch a horrific terror attack against it on the scale of the Paris Massacres. With ISIL being unable to deliver on that promise the group and its supporters have got to be feeling like complete failures.

In terms of finding local recruits to avenge ISIL's recent failures in Europe France was always going to be at most risk. That is because simply it has the largest Muslim population of any European nation. Also as was discussed extensively at the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest France has a longstanding problem with integration which helps fuel radicalisation.

In terms of why Nice was the scene of last night's attack it might be something as simple as the fact that is where Bouhlel lived and is therefore the area that he is most familiar with and comfortable in.

However even if he wasn't specifically directed by ISIL there are a number of factors which could have caused him to decide that there and then was the time to make his stand for the group;

Refugees and the Front National: I once again have to start by saying that the overwhelming majority of those fleeing Syria and Iraq are not terrorists and pose no threat to Europeans. In fact by definition a person cannot be considered a refugee if they support a group like ISIL or in any way pose a terror threat.

However the problem is that we are certainly not doing a satisfactory job of screening irregular migrants to determine whether they are refugees or terrorists.

So while you have people like US President Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau shouting; "Refugees Welcome" to convince us of how much they care the German intelligence services have been quietly whispering phrases like; "Identified and Liquidated." It turns out the most recent season of "Homeland" was extremely accurate in certain respects.

With CJTFOIR continuing to refuse to block ISIL's escape route to Libya up Garvaghy Road the Mediterranean migrant route is becoming a particular area of concern. Both at Eurovision and just the other day (12/7/17) the Italian's have been complaining about how a certain someone's out of control ego is holding their feet to the fire. Nice sits on the Mediterranean coast right next to Italy.

It is a long standing part of Al Qaeda strategy that within global society there is a distinct area where Muslims exist. There is another distinct area where non-Muslims exist. However in societies such as France there is a third space where Muslims and non-Muslims exist alongside each other. There are very fancy Arabic names for these three spaces which for the life of me at this point I just cannot remember.

Al Qaeda's strategy is focused on using terrorism to destroy this third space forcing Muslims and non-Muslims apart as a precursor to a war that will see the Muslims wipe out the non-Muslims. In this version of reality even Shia Muslims are considered non-Muslims.

In France you have the fascist Front National (FN) party led by Marie Le Pen. They seem to share Al Qaeda's desire to destroy this third space driving Muslims and non-Muslims apart. Of course though the Front National believe it is the non-Muslims who will win this war to end all wars.

In April 2017 France will hold its Presidential election. Playing on fears of immigration and terrorism the Front National is hoping to do extremely well in this election. There is even talk of Le Pen becoming France's next President.

By conducting a terror attack in an area close to an area heavily associated with the Mediterranean migrant route it is entirely possible that Bouhlel was trying to campaign for Le Pen in the hope the Front National will ally with ISIL in destroying that third space.

The English Way: The Promenade des Anglais where last night's attack to place translates as; "The English Walkway" or simply; "The English Way." It was built by British MP Lewis Way in 1820 as a way to help an influx of beggars who'd flocked to his favourite holiday resort.

Although it made many grievous mistakes in the early days of the war in Syria recently the UK has been very vocal about the need to defeat ISIL and associated groups and end the war once and for all. This included the liquidation of British MP Jo Cox on June 16th (16/6/16).

This of course was intended to end the EU referendum campaign a week early.

However it looked to do that by promoting discussion about the radical Islamist groups that Jo Cox supported in her role as the founder and chair of the perversely named "Friends of Syria" Parliamentary group. These are groups her husband Brendan Cox continues to support through the 'charitable' foundation he has set up in her name. This has prompted quite a lot of discussion between nations.

Clearly at least one of ISIL's supporters view Jo Cox and the groups she supported as vital allies in ISIL's war.

Tonight sees the start of Britain's "The Henry Wood Promenade Concerts presented by the BBC" (The Proms) classical music festival. Taking its name from the way that people would promenade or stroll around public spaces such as the Promenade des Anglais this is considered one of the World famous highpoints of the British social calendar.

As such it is entirely possible that Bouhlel was trying to threaten The Proms as a way to frighten Britain into changing its position and intimidate others from following "the English way."

The poor darling of course failed to realise that these days The Proms are held almost exclusively at the Royal Albert Hall. From a security perspective that single venue is extremely easy to protect.

Plus not even the Nazi Blitzkrieg and the destruction of the Queen's Hall venue in 1941 was enough to stop The Proms dear.

As seems to be my catch phrase these days at around 16:40 on 17/7/16 (UK date) I have a tiny bit to add after dinner.

Edited at around 22:45 on 17/7/16 (UK date) to try and work out why my blog is having a weird allergic reaction to the word "Mediterranean" and add;

Rihanna: I personally do not think this is a significant factor in the attack. However it has been talked about and will certainly be talked about now. Therefore I really have to discuss it if only to help rule it out.

As I've previously mentioned Rihanna on her "ANTI" tour of Europe and the US. Today she was supposed to be playing at the Allianz Stadium in Nice. Therefore she was in Nice last night during the terror attack. Although I can't say that I've looked at her travel plans in enough detail to confirm this it is certainly possible that Rihanna was staying in one of the hotels along the route of the attack.

On June 27th (27/6/16) Rihanna released the single "Sledgehammer" taken from the movie "Star Trek Beyond." This was an extremely bad move on Rihanna's part because "Sledgehammer" could be interpreted as a reference to the 2003 Sledgehammer conspiracy in Turkey. 

In this long running story Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recept Tayyip Erdogan claimed that the "Parallel/Deep State" which is sworn to uphold Turkey's secular constitution and values established by the nation's founder Mustfa Kemal Ataturk were plotting to overthrow him in a military coup. 

However the evidence in support of Erdogan's claim such as documents produced on Microsoft Office 2007 were found to be distinctly lacking in credibility. As such Sledgehammer is widely viewed as a complete fabrication by Erdogan in order to justify the jailing of hundreds of secular civil servants/military leaders so they could be replaced by Islamists loyal to Erdogan's own Justice & Development Party (AKP).

At the time I said that it was extremely unwise for Rihanna and her CIA handlers to bring this topic up at such a sensitive time. That was the abridged version. What I would have liked to have said is;

As a valued NATO member the Turkish Establishment has a long and proud history of defending the values of secularism and democracy against dark forces. Erdogan once described democracy as being like a train. It is something that you ride on until you reach your destination. Then you get off and forget about it. 

Since arriving at his destination of power Erdogan has persued an extremely aggressive Islamist policy both at home and abroad. 

It is on the foreign policy front where his behaviour has been most destablising as a full supporter of ISIL. It is due to Erdogan that CJTFOIR was prevented for a long time from using USAF base Incirilk to defeat ISIL. It is also due to Erdogan that CJTFOIR remains banned from closing ISIL's main supply route - "Erdogan's Pocket/Garvaghy Road."

On the democratic front Erdogan hit a big of a snag in January 2015 when his term limit as Prime Minister expired forcing him to take up the ceremonial role of President. In the June 2015 Parliamentary election Erdogan hoped that this AKP would secure a qualified majority allowing him to make the office of the President an Executive role from which he could rule for all eternity. 

Unfortunately the Turkish people disagreed with him and the AKP not only fell short of a qualified majority they fell short of an absolute majority.

Then suddenly on July 20th (20/7/16) an ISIL suicide bombing took place in the Turkish city of Suruc killing 33. With the full support of then US President Barack Obama Erdogan then declared war on Turkey's Kurdish population. Presumably because Kurds in Syria and Iraq had the cheek to fight ISIL.

Wrapped in the flag of nationalism Erdogan then decided to hold another Parlimentary election in November 2015. Again the AKP fell short of the qualified majority it craved. Erdogan is currently in the process to expelling Kurdish MP's from Parliament reducing the number of MP's needed for a qualified majority.

So what I would have liked to have said is;

"The Turkish Establishment and the Turkish people have had enough of Erdogan and his extremism. They will soon remove him from power. Incirilk will be fully opened, Garvaghy Road will be sealed and the ISIL Consulate in Ankara will be closed.

STOP TRYING TO PROTECT HIM!"

In response to the Sledgehammer single there was an ISIL terror attack on Istanbul's Ataturk airport in which 141 people were murder. Even though they were responsible for the attack domestically it was used by Erdogan and the AKP to prepare the Turkish population for the coup attempt the US had warned him to guard against.

Like I said though I don't think Rihanna's involvement in the Nice terror attack was planned or a trigger for anything. 

Depending on how widely it was advertised locally it may have been a contributing factor to Bouhlel's individual motive. However I essentially functioned as Rihanna's social worker throughout 2013. The fact that she recently performed concerts in my native London still came as a surprise to me.

So along with the Nice Jazz Festival which was also cancelled I suspect that Rihanna's presence was entirely secondary to the fact that Bastille Day was the one day of the year that the Promenade des Anglais was packed with people making it the perfect target.  

00:05 on 18/7/16 (UK date).