Saturday 26 September 2015

Operation Featherweight: Month 14, Week 5, Day 2.

Last Friday (18/9/15) night through to Saturday (19/9/15) 70 insurgents who had been trained by the US in Turkey entered Syria in 12 armed pick-up trucks (Technicals) laden with weapons, ammunition and other equipment. The plan was for them to meet up with the other 5 US trained insurgents that are already in Syria.

This was confirmed by the US on Tuesday (22/9/15) giving the group the new collective name of "New Syrian Forces (NSF)" presumably because their actual names - "Division 30 (D30)" and "Falcons of the Mountains/Suqur al-Jabal" - had already been tarnished by links to Islamist groups.

However even before the US had confirmed that the operation had taken place reports began to emerge that the US trained fighters had immediately defected to Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF) who make up the largest section of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. These reports gained credibility on Monday (21/9/15) when ANF published pictures online showing them in possession of these US supplied vehicles, weapons, ammunition and other equipment.

The US immediately denied that any of the so called NSF insurgents had defected to ANF and all their weapons, equipment and personnel were accounted for. The US repeated this denial on Wednesday (23/9/15) and again on Thursday (24/9/15).

On Friday (25/9/15) afternoon Colonel Pat Ryder gave a rare US Central Command (CENTCOM) press conference in which he again denied the reports going so far as to claim that ANF had deliberately used old photographs in an attempt to fake reports of any defection.

During the press conference Colonel Ryder also confirmed that the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) attempts to liberate the city of Ramadi from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has not made any significant progress. As usual the US tried to blame this entirely on the Iraq's rather then the US' lack of support for the Iraqis.

On Friday (25/9/15) evening CENTCOM confirmed that within 24 hours of entering Syria the NSF had handed 6 of their technicals and all the weapons, ammunition and equipment they held over to ANF. CENTCOM went on to claim that this represented around 25% of the equipment they had been issued with. However in my understanding of maths 6 out of 12 is 50% not 25%. Given the frequent, inaccurate denials and the discrepancy over numbers I've got a nasty feeling that there is more of this story to come.

Regardless of the exact numbers this latest development makes it undeniable that the US is now in the business of supplying weapons to Al Qaeda - a declared enemy of the US. In short CENTCOM has just committed treason.

Rather then being used to fight (ISIL) we know that these weapons supplied to ANF will now go to support the JAF's efforts to dislodge the Syrian government from Aleppo and Idlib provinces with the ultimate goal of capturing Latakia province. Although logistics mean that those specific weapons won't be used in the battle JAF are also trying to capture the town of Zabadani in the Bekaa Valley on the border with Lebanon with a view to capturing the Syrian capital of Damascus itself.

On Thursday (24/9/15) a United Nations (UN) brokered ceasefire was agreed that will see fighters from the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (FML/Ahrar ash-Sham) who are the second largest group within JAF alongside ANF withdraw from Zabadani.

In addition JAF will allow 10,000 civilian refugees to flee from the villages of Fuaa and Kafraya on the Idlib/Latakia front-line where they've effectively been held hostage to safety in Syrian government held territory.

This cease-fire is intended to last for six months but previous ceasefire agreements have struggled to make it to six days.

This brings me onto an issue that has been bugging me for quite some time - the normally reliable "Economist" magazine's coverage of the conflict. Falling far short of the expected editorial standard the Economist have long been cheerleaders for the overthrow of the Syrian government just as they were cheerleaders for the overthrow of the Libyan government.

This support has involved twisting facts to the point that they bear no resemblance to reality. For example the Economist have been one of the lead people trying to convince us that ISIL stands for "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria."

As the refugee crisis caused by the Syria and Iraq conflicts has worsened the Economist has also attempted to hijack this issue in order to further it's cause of regime change in Syria. In all their coverage of the issue - including this week's leader - they claim that the majority of the refugees are fleeing "Mr Assad's barrel bombs."

However if you get into the articles supporting this conclusion they speak to a woman who has fled to Germany following JAF's advances in Aleppo and a man who has fled to Lebanon following JAF's advances in the Bekaa valley. They also concede that the vast majority - around 75% - of Syrians want to live in areas under government control and those who are outside of government control want to live in Turkey, Lebanon or Europe.

However the Economists editorial line remains adamantly that overthrowing the Syrian government is the solution to the refugee crisis. Presumably they're in the process of applying for a job proof-reading CENTCOM intelligence reports.

So great have concerns about US President Barack Obama's handling of the fight against ISIL - which at best can be described as dangerously shambolic - become that Russia has been forced to increase its military deployment in the Syrian province of Latakia. With this highlighting America's failure the US response to this Russian build-up has been distinctly childish with the US trying everything in it's power to make Russia's moves seem as sinister as possible.

The main part of this effort has been the selective release of information about what types of equipment Russia has deployed. Roughly two weeks ago the US announced that Russia had deployed S-300 anti-aircraft missiles. Last week the US announced that Russia had deployed 4 Su-30 "Flanker" aircraft which although multi-role are primarily used as an air-superiority fighter designed to shoot-down enemy aircraft.

The obvious sub-text to this trickle of information was that Russia was intending to attack and shoot-down aircraft from the US-led, anti-ISIL coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

In the past week the US has been forced to come clean and admit that the bulk of the Russia force is made up of helicopter gunships such as the Mi-28 "Havoc" and the KA-52 "Alligator" alongside 12 Su-25 "Frogfoot" ground attack jets. All of these aircraft are designed to provide tactical close air support to ground troops. Although none of these aircraft appear to have been deployed yet it is likely that they will be used to replace barrel bombs in future Syrian government operations reducing the impact on the civilian population.

When a military deploys a force like this its biggest worry is that it will simply be destroyed on the ground. To prevent this they also deploy what is known as force protection which is made up of troops, tanks, anti-aircraft systems and air-superiority fighters.

Obviously with neither JAF nor ISIL having an air-force air attacks are not a major concern but militaries tend to plan the same support operations including force protection for every deployment in order to speed up their ability to deploy. Plus Russia has recently significantly upgraded its military and hasn't fought a war since the 1980's so are probably looking for an opportunity for a real world test.

On Tuesday (22/9/15) US Secretary of State John Kerry finally admitted that the Russian deployment was nothing more then a standard force protection deployment.

Amid all these glaring errors and forced admissions the US appears to have become extremely jittery. For example in the UK last Sunday (20/9/15) there was a natural gas explosion at a house in Ridings, Derbyshire in which a husband and wife were killed. Police are working on the theory that the husband stabbed the wife to death and then committed suicide by setting the explosion. With no other indicators I think this was nothing more then a tragic example of civilian crime.

However the US seem to have become utterly fixated on it. For example the following day (21/9/15) two homes were destroyed in a natural gas explosion on Arabian Road in Waxahachie, Texas, US. Then on Wednesday (23/9/15) six houses were destroyed in a large natural gas explosion in Columbia a suburb of the infamous city of Baltimore, Maryland, US.

It is in this context I'm looking at the fire at one of Europe's largest Mosques - the Baitul Futuh Mosque - which is currently underway very close to where I live in Croydon. Obviously it is still very early days and it could just be a coincidence but it could also be the UK underlining the need for the US to sort out its ISIL policy by twisting the knife in over the US' misplaced concern over the Ridings gas explosion.

I should also point out though that we are at the start of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) and the UK is currently hosting the 2015 Rugby World Cup. As such the UK is likely to be at its most obnoxious and attention seeking.

For example the French World Cup team are based in Croydon. This made national news recently when one of my traffic warden brethren issued the French team bus with a parking ticket. With Croydon being the main port of call for asylum seekers I suppose we're meant to view this a revenge for the summer's disruption at Calais.

Tonight will see what some are calling the most important rugby game to be played in the UK for 25 years take place between England and Wales at Twickenham. For reasons I don't understand the Notting Hill Housing Trust that played such a big role in my Welsh grandmother's unfortunate demise are known by the codeword "The Mosque."

I suspect this has something to do with the 2010 film "Four Lions" in which idiotic Islamist terrorists plot to start a holy war by carrying out a flase flag bombing of a Mosque in the hope of provoking Muslims into violence. However I think the point of a codeword is that it doesn't make much sense.

17:15 on 26/9/15 (UK date).

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