Operation Featherweight: Month 14, Week 4, Day 2.

Throughout the 13 months on this conflict I've said time and time again that the fundamental problem is that US President Barack Obama as Commander-in-Chief of Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - as the US-led coalition is formally known - has absolutely no strategy to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

As such it should come as little surprise that in the 10 days since my last post on the subject very little has happened on the ground.

On Monday (14/9/15) twin ISIL suicide bombings struck positions of the Kurdish People's Protection Forces (YPG) in the north-eastern Syrian city of Hasakah killing 26 and wounding 70. You may remember that the capital of Syria's Hasakah province also marks the southern boundary of the 33,000km^2 (20,000mile^2) buffer-zone that Kurdish forces have established across northern Syria and Iraq. On Thursday (17/9/15) twin ISIL suicide bombings struck markets in the Iraqi capital Baghdad killing 23 and wounding 60.

Once you've accepted that both Iraq and Syria are war zones where bombs will go off and people will be killed these bombings are actually something of a good sign. Back in mid June ISIL launched an offensive to ultimately capture Hasakah from the YPG and then advance further into the buffer zone. By August 1st (1/8/15) the YPG had succeeded in repelling this attack and ISIL were stopped. 

Likewise back in mid May ISIL had just forced the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) from the city of Ramadi in Anbar province and were threatening to advance on Baghdad around 100km (60 miles) to the east. Since then the ISF have launched a huge operation to liberate all of Anbar province. Although this is yet to produce any big break-through it has succeeded in containing ISIL and halting their advance.

Therefore the fact that ISIL have been reduced to threatening local civilians by carrying out these terrorist attacks far behind the front-line is a sign of how much their ability to advance and move forward those front-lines has been reduced.

In what was one of the last acts of Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott before he was replaced Australia announced on September 9th (9/9/15) that it was to expand it's role within CJTFOIR to include air-strikes in Syria. On September 12th (12/9/15) Australia conducted it's first mission in Syria but this was only a surveillance flight in which no targets were engaged. However on Wednesday (16/9/16) Australia did conduct it's first air-strikes in Syria hitting an oil collection point, an ISIL ground unit and an Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC).

Although CJTFOIR are still very opposed to me reading their press releases and quite reasonably don't provide information about which specific nation has carried out which specific air-strikes I think it is fair to assume that Australian aircraft are continuing to participate in operations in Syria. 

However despite this increased capacity the frequency of air-strikes against ISIL positions in Syria remains extremely low with a total of between 3 and 6 individual bombs being dropped each day. In fact Australia's first strikes were they only strikes carried out that day highlighting just how much excess capacity CJTFOIR has.

On September 7th (7/9/15) two days prior to the Australian announcement France announced that it will begin surveillance flights over Syria bringing it a step closer to conducting air-strikes. The first of those surveillance flights was conducted within 24 hours on September 8th (8/9/15). On Tuesday (15/9/15) France indicated that it was keen to start conducting air-strikes in Syria in response to ISIL advances in the town of Marea.

Marea sits in the Syrian province of Aleppo some 30km (18 miles) north of Aleppo City and some 20km (12 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey. ISIL actually began their advance on the town on August 27th (27/8/15). This advance which has involved the use of chemical weapons - believed to be Sulphur Mustard Gas - is the direct result of a decision Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF) - as part of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition - to withdraw from the area on August 9th (9/8/15).

This decision was made at Turkey's instruction and was communicated by Turkey to ANF via Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (FML) who are the second largest faction in JAF behind ANF.

Turkey's motive behind instructing ANF to withdraw was to speed up it's own plans to launch an invasion of Syria in order to shorten its supply lines to both JAF and ISIL who have become separated from Turkey by the YPG buffer zone. In the first instance this was to get around the fact that no member of the international community can provide support to JAF because ANF are listed alongside ISIL on United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 2170 (2015) meaning that the World is at war with them.

In the second instance it was to allow ISIL to advance into the area allowing Turkey to better supply them and create panic amongst CJTFOIR members who would then demand that something, anything must be done. Sadly France seems to have been taken in by the second part of this plan but then they do sell large amounts of military equipment to Turkey every year.

For their part Turkey has continued with it's attacks against Kurdish positions in northern Iraq - particularly in the Dohuk region. Turkish shelling has now become an almost daily event and on Friday (18/9/15) Turkey carried out another wave of air-strikes that it claims killed 55 Kurdish fighters.

Despite being designated as the moderate opposition in Syria JAF are still displaying absolutely no interest in fighting ISIL. Instead they remain focused on ousting forces Syrian government from Aleppo and Idlib provinces with a view to advancing into the strategically important Latakia province which borders Lebanon.

They have made no significant progress since capturing the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib province on September 9th (9/9/15). However over the last few days - exact dates are hard to establish - JAF have conducted a massacre of at least 55 people they captured during the operation.

It is against this backdrop that Russia is suspected on increasing it's long-standing military presence in Latakia including at least 4 advanced strike aircraft believed to be Su-33's. Russia is also said to be supplying advanced weapons to the Syrian government which seem intended to reduce their reliance on unsophisticated barrel bombs and artillery. This has prompted something of a frantic diplomatic stand-off between Russia and the US which I am in no rush to go trampling all over.

Then of course there is still the issue of the refugee crisis that this conflict has caused. Today the body of an unidentified 5 year girl washed up on the Aegean beaches of the Greek island of Lesbos with 13 others feared drowned. The current death toll from migrant drownings on the Aegean is averaging around 8 per day.

However to cover the European Union's (EU) continuingly chaotic response to the crisis I think I first need to brush up on EU constitutional law particularly as it relates to international humanitarian law. As such I will endeavour to cover it in a separate update, ideally tomorrow.

21:40 on 19/9/15 (UK date).