Yesterday the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) held an emergency meeting to discuss member state Turkey's air-strikes against its neighbours in Syria and Iraq. Despite being possibly one of the most important diplomatic meetings of the year alongside the Iran talks and the upcoming climate change talks in France this meeting received scant media coverage. However it appears that Turkey's ambush tactics paid off.
As he has been since he made the phonecall that set this chain of events in motion US President Barack Obama has been preoccupied with a vanity tour of Africa. Addressing the African Union (AU) summit yesterday Obama raised his hands to the air as if in Muslim prayer and decried those leaders that try to cling to power beyond the end of their term limits. This seemed to be a deliberate snub to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
You may remember that Erdogan's term limit as Prime Minister expired in 2014. So since moving to the ceremonial office of President Erdogan needed his Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) to do well in Turkey's June 7th (7/6/15) General Election in order to allow them to grant executive power to the President's office circumventing Erdogan's term limit.
The people of Turkey saw things differently and the AKP were denied the majority they need to change the constitution. Erdogan's sudden war against "terrorists" seems designed to overturn the result of the election. Today he has introduced legislation that would see the Kurdish backed People's Democratic Party (HDP) banned from Parliament as terrorist sympathisers.
The removal of these 80 MP's would reduce the number of MP's needed to secure a majority from 275 to 235 - giving the AKP a majority of 25. If they succeed in forming a coalition with the extreme nationalist/fascist Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) the AKP will have the two thirds majority required to prevent any constitutional changes being submitted to public referendum. After all it is likely that the MHP will be so blinded by their hatred of the Kurds they will forget to demand that a bar on constitutional changes and MHP control of any security ministries are the foundation of any coalition agreement.
Unfortunately because he was so busy playing to the cameras in Ethiopia Obama was unable to call all the other NATO members to inform them that he had made a terrible mistake in backing Erdogan and plead with them to help block Turkey's aggression before the highly dangerous situation got any further out of control. I get the impression that the European Union (EU) members of NATO simply needed assurance that the US wouldn't suddenly turn around and stab them in the back as it has done numerous times over Ukraine and Iran.
This total absence of US leadership meant that the meeting was a short and panicked affair. Essentially Turkey laid out its plans and then without any questioning or examination the other delegates nodded in vague agreement before heading for the nearest exit. As a result it is quite hard to gauge what was agreed upon and what Turkey has been given permission to do. It is though beyond NATO's remit to allow Turkey to attack it's neighbours. That requires a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution.
However it immediately became quite clear what Turkey thinks it has been given permission to do.
Since starting it's air campaign on late on Thursday (23/7/15) Turkey has bombed Kurdish positions on a daily basis. However on Tuesday (28/7/15) they took a short break for the duration of the NATO meeting. Within 45 minutes of that meeting ending though Turkey began conducting air-strikes in the Duhok region of Iraq. This marked the start of the most intense wave of Turkish strikes to date with wave after wave of strikes continuing for the next 10 hours.
Duhok sits just 65km (39 miles) north of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) held city of Mosul. It is also around 85km (50 miles) to the north-west to the strategically important town on Tel Afar which is vital in cutting off ISIL's supply lines between Mosul and the positions in Syria. The area is central to the humanitarian safe zone that was established to protect - predominately Yezidi - refugees who were forced from their homes on Sinjar/Shingal mountains and the surrounding Nineveh plains. The Turkish strikes were directed against civilian areas destroying numerous homes and orchards which are essential both for food and to the area's economy.
These strikes were immediately condemned by Iraq's Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari who made clear that in the absence of a Chapter 7 UNSC resolution in order to conduct any military operation in Iraq Turkey must first secure the permission and co-operation of the Iraqi government.
Despite conducting air-strikes against ISIL positions in Syria in the first wave of strikes on Thursday (23/7/14) Turkey did not conduct any further anti-ISIL strikes on Friday (24/7/15), Saturday (25/7/15), Sunday (26/7/15) or Monday (27/7/15). Turkey has claimed that it following the NATO meeting it did conduct strikes against ISIL positions in Syria on Tuesday (28/7/15) afternoon. However with Turkey not operating under the command and control structure of the US-led coalition I am unable to tell where or what type of targets were engaged. In fact from my sources on the ground I cannot even confirm that any such strikes took place.
What Turkey has certainly been doing since Thursday is continually shelling positions inside Syria from its side of the border. These positions are held by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) who are supported by the Euphrates Volcano unit of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). One of the most surreal demands that Erdogan has made of the YPG is that they agree to work more closely with the FSA. The only functioning unit of the FSA left in Syria is the Euphrates Volcano who are attached to the YPG.
The focus of Tuesday's Turkish shelling was YPG/FSA positions in the town of Tel Abyad/Gire Spi. I have talked about this border town a lot because it is of massive strategic importance in the fight against ISIL. It's liberation from ISIL on June 16th (16/6/15) cut off ISIL's last supply route with Turkey in the east and allowed the establishment of a 33,000km^2 (20,000mile^2) buffer zone between ISIL and Turkey that stretches all the way from the Euphrates River to Iraq's border with Iran. The nearest ISIL positions to Tel Abyad sit more then 40km (25 miles) to the south beyond the village of Ain Issa.
Therefore the only explanation for Turkey shelling Tel Abyad is that they are trying to dislodge the YPG/FSA in order to break apart the buffer zone and allow ISIL to re-establish this vital supply line between Turkey and their de facto capital of Raqqa.
Along with the air-strikes against Duhok in the eastern part of the buffer zone the artillery strikes on Tel Abyad present a very serious problem for US President Obama. On August 7th 2014 (7/8/14) Obama addressed the nation to announce that he was sending the US military to attack ISIL in Iraq. This designated ISIL as an enemy of the US - a designation that was rapidly supported by a UNSC resolution. By giving Turkey permission to attack anti-ISIL forces in both Syria and Iraq Obama is clearly giving aid and comfort to ISIL.
Under title 18 section 2381 of the US federal code anyone who gives aid or comfort to an enemy of the US either within the US or abroad has committed an act of treason against the US. The minimum punishment is five years in prison while the maximum punishment is death. Anyone who has committed such an act is automatically rendered incapable of holding any office in the US - particularly the office of President.
However I'm sure that as with the Chattanooga shooting Obama will rely on his ally Donald Trump to put on another song and dance number to distract the public and give CNN an excuse not to report on it.
15:35 on 29/7/15 (UK date).
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