In recent days the Iraqi Security Force's (ISF) Anbar offensive has been making slow and steady progress in dislodging the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) for Iraq's south-western province. For example just yesterday the ISF secured Anbar University which is a vast, sprawling complex on the south-western outskirts of the city of Ramadi. Obviously I would like to be covering those gains in more detail.
However it appears that once again US President Barack Obama has completely lost his sh*t and decided to plunge the entire war into chaos.
Throughout the fight against ISIL and over the years in which the group grew to the point they could no longer be ignored one of the main problems has been Turkish Prime Minister/President/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Since taking up office in 2003 Erdogan's mission has been to turn Turkey from a modern, western-style secular democracy into a Sunni Islamic State. Not only that but he wants Turkey to lead a group of Sunni Islamic States that stretches down through Syria and Israel and across through Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. In short Erdogan wants to re-establish the Ottoman Empire with himself as Emperor.
There is an absolute mountain of evidence showing both Erdogan's intent and his action. For example ISIL have been given permission to operate what is in effect a diplomatic consulate within the Turkish city of Istanbul. Then there is Erdogan's desire to have ancient (Ottoman) Turkish taught as a compulsory subject in schools and his campaign to have a Mosque built on every Turkish university campus in violation of the secular separation of Church /Mosque and State that has existed in Turkey since the fall of the Ottoman Empire.
That is before even making mention of the tens if not hundreds of thousands of ISIL recruits that have travelled to Syria through Turkey on what has become dubbed "Glasgow bin Lorry's Garbage Truck Express." So vast and open has this practice been that if they were to think about it many of my British readers could probably name several dozen high profile cases without me having to prompt them.
Erdogan's support for ISIL though was probably at it's most naked and spiteful during the Battle of Kobane. As you may remember in September 2014 ISIL began their advance on the city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab which sits directly on the border with Turkey roughly in the centre of Syria's north. ISIL's objectives for the operation were to exterminate the Kurdish ethnic group - the majority of whom are Sunni Muslims - and establish yet another supply route from Turkey linking their de facto capital of Raqqa - some 120km (72 miles) to the south-east - with the contested city of Aleppo - some 145km (85 miles) to the south-west.
Throughout the early stages of the battle Erdogan became ISIL's main cheerleader providing daily updates reassuring his supporters that ISIL would be victorious and Kobane would fall within hours or days. Erdogan then defied Turkey's obligations as a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) by refusing to allow Turkish territory to be used to re-supply the defenders of Kobane. In the end the coalition was forced to rely on air supply drops which are always the second choice.
With the battle turning against ISIL towards the end of November Turkey allowed it's territory - specifically an industrial site owned and operated by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) - to be used by ISIL to launch an attack on Kobane from the north. Even as recently as June 25th 2015 (25/6/15) Turkey was again allowing ISIL to use its territory to mount attacks on Kobane. This time in the form of Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's) and disguised fighters crossing in through the Mursitpinar border crossing.
As we approach the first anniversary of the start of the war against ISIL you would think that the US-led coalition would have dedicated a lot of its efforts towards making sure that Turkey ends its support for ISIL and fulfils its obligations as both a member of NATO and of the United Nations (UN). After all with support for ISIL being strictly forbidden by a Chapter 7 UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution there is certainly a lot that can be done on the diplomatic front.
Obviously the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) who defended Kobane haven't had the luxury of waiting for that diplomatic work to be completed if in fact it was even undertaken. So over the past seven months they've set to work establishing a buffer-zone across northern Syria. Once this zone has become secured it can be used as both a humanitarian safe zone for refugees and a staging area to take the fight to ISIL within Syria. However its main purpose is to cut off ISIL positions in places like Raqqa from the group's main supply routes in Turkey.
Having won the 134 day Battle of Kobane on January 26th 2015 (26/1/15) the YPG have pushed out to secure the wider Kobane Canton while resisting continuous ISIL attacks on the eastern Cizire Canton. The big breakthrough came on June 16th (16/6/15) when the YPG succeeded in liberating the border town Tel Abyad/Gire Spi. This closed the last supply route between Raqqa and Turkey and linked up the Kobane and Cizire Cantons. Along with the territory held by the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga in Iraq's northern Kurdish region this has created a 33,000km^2 (20,000mile^2) buffer zone between ISIL and Turkey.
You may remember that the YPG's advance on Tel Abyad was proceeded by Erdogan repeating entirely false claims by the Al Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF) led Islamist Army of Conquest (JAF) coalition that the YPG were engaging in the ethnic cleansing of Arabs and Turkmen. This was a transparent effort to get Tel Abyad's Arab and Turkmen population to side with ISIL against the YPG. Fortunately it failed and the Arabs and Turkmen were quickly able to return to their homes in the newly liberated city.
Since liberating Tel Abyad the YPG have been slowly and methodically working to isolate and then eradicate ISIL positions within the city of Hasakah which effectively marks the southern border of the buffer-zone. They have also been moving to strengthen the western border of the buffer-zone where it meets the Euphrates. Today the YPG have managed to secure the town of Sarrin which controls the river crossing on the M4 highway which is the main supply road between Raqqa and ISIL positions in Aleppo. I gather that at least one former US Navy SEAL has played a key role in this effort.
Obama's response to all this has been completely unfathomable. On Wednesday (22/7/15) Obama broke with all diplomatic protocol and the result of Turkey's recent General Election to telephone Erdogan to discuss Turkey's role in the conflict. As always when an administration cannot justify it's actions to the public the White House is remaining tight-lipped about what exactly what was said. However from events it is clear that in return for Turkey finally fulfilling it's NATO obligation to make Incirlik air-base available for use the US has given Turkey permission to conduct air-strikes against Kurdish positions in both Iraq and Syria.
Since late on Thursday (23/7/15) Turkish strikes against northern Iraq have become a daily event killing and injuring both fighters and civilians. On Friday (24/7/14) YPG positions on the west of the Kobane Canton came under Turkish artillery fire in what appears to have been an attempt to stop the YPG securing Sarrin from ISIL.
Turkey has also claimed and the US has confirmed that the two nations are at an advanced stage of negotiations to allow Turkey to invade and occupy the northern buffer-zone. This will eradicate the only non-government anti-ISIL force in Syria - despite Turkish and US backing JAF have shown no interest fighting them. It will also not only re-establish ISIL's supply routes with Turkey but also substantially shorten them.
On Sunday (26/7/15) Germany urged Turkey to re-commit to its ceasefire with the Kurds which is a diplomatic way of pointing out that Turkey does not currently enjoy Germany's support. Having spent much of the previous week using the Cyprus issue to warn about Turkey on Saturday (25/7/15) the European Union (EU) which represents 20 of NATO's 28 members also urged Turkey to recommit to its ceasefire.
On Sunday evening Turkey called an emergency meeting of NATO to be held tomorrow (28/7/15). This strikes me as an attempt by Turkey to pre-empt a NATO meeting that would have been called to condemn Turkey's actions. It seems to be scheduled to coincide with Obama's African tour in order to prevent other NATO members advising him of both the severity of the situation and the stupidity of his actions prior to that meeting.
15:45 on 27/7/15 (UK date).
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