On February 17th (17/2/15) three British schoolgirls aged 15 and 16 left the UK for Turkey where they crossed into Syria to join the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The resulting media frenzy and the UK Parliament's Home Affairs Select Committee's love affair with the TV cameras, any TV camera set in motion an unfortunate series of events between the UK and Turkey.
For example on March 12th (12/3/15) - two days after the Select Committee hearing - Turkey arrested a Syrian man who had been providing information to an unnamed nation about the ISIL smuggling routes that exist in Turkey. Also I really wish I was joking when I say that this saga probably played a role in Zayn Malik's decision to quit the British boyband "One Direction." Perhaps more importantly though it was today announced that the saga seems to have forced the UK to send up to 75 military personnel to Turkey to train Syrian Jihadists as part of US President Obama's harebrained scheme which is apparently still going ahead.
Obviously the UK can't be seen to train Jihadists in Turkey whilst at the same time highlighting Turkey's role in supplying Jihadist fighters to ISIL. So today also saw the sudden and surprising not guilty verdict in the case of Erol Incedal - a Turkish national being tried on unspecified Islamic terrorism charges. Held in unprecedented secrecy which prevent even the charges being known the Incedal trial has been a coded way for the UK to discuss Turkey's role in exporting quasi-Islamic terrorism to Egypt, Libya and Syria.
For their part the Turks prepared for the UK announcement by last night bombing the Ankara offices of the ISIL supporting magazine "Adimlar." Although one person was killed in this bombing for an operation carried out by military intelligence it was little more then a glancing blow. The purpose was to send the message internationally that Turkey is prepared to take action against ISIL supporters within Turkey. Domestically though it was intended to energise Turkish President Erdogan's increasingly Salafi base by allow him to highlight the way the evil west is prepared to get so outraged by the Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris, France but seems to celebrate a similar attack against Muslims.
As a bit of random information that doesn't seem to fit anywhere else I should point out that on Tuesday (24/3/15) Canada announced its intention to expand its role in the anti-ISIL coalition to include targets in Syria. Due to the ruling majority in the Canadian Parliament this measure is extremely likely to pass although they've have not stated whether it will cover all of Syria or just certain areas of Syria where ISIL are know to be operating.
The big development in the last couple of days though is that on Saturday (21/3/15) the US-led coalition - and specifically the US - started carrying out surveillance flights in aid of the Iraqi Security Force (ISF) operation to liberate Tikrit. This was done at the request of the Iraqi government and last night the US began conducting air-strikes on ISIL positions in and around the city which is located around 150km (90 miles) north of the Iraqi capital Baghdad.
Since the ISF operation began on March 2nd (2/3/15) it has been notoriously difficult to get accurate information about how it has been progressing. In part this is because in the absence of an ISF spokesman controlling the flow of information various leaders of all the different groups involved such as the Iraqi Army, Iraqi Special Forces, the Iraqi police and the Popular Mobilisation Front (PMF) have been giving different, off-the-record, accounts of how their particular part of the operation is going. Also with the operation taking place without the permission of the US-led coalition many western news agencies have at best been boycotting it completely and some have even gone so far as to brief against it.
The best assessment of how the operation has been going I heard is that it was completed two weeks ago and the city had been totally liberated. Obviously this is not the case and the second best assessment it that a small group of ISIL fighters are pinned down in the presidential palace compound. The BBC however indicate that some 1000+ ISIL fighters not only hold the palace compound and the city centre but also the western al-Zuhur neighbourhood and the northern Qadisiya neighbourhood although that strikes me more as a map off anywhere fighting has taken place in the city in the last month.
At around 18:00 on 26/3/15 (UK date) I seem to have completely forgotten the point I was trying to make. Hopefully I'll recover it and return after dinner.
Edited at around 19:35 on 26/3/15 (UK date) to add;
Regardless of what the real situation on the ground in Tikrit the involvement of the coalition will bring with it precision air-strikes including from helicopter gunships capable of destroying ISIL defensive positions and deny them the right to movement.
The US' belated decision to join the liberation of Tikrit is particularly embarrassing for them because they have played a leading role in trying to brief against the operation labelling it as Iranian invasion of Iraq. For example at a recent press conference a journalist asked how the operation was progressing only for the Pentagon spokesman to tersely reply; "Ask Tehran."
It is though entirely a problem of the US' own making.
For reasons that are too numerous to list here US President Obama seems utterly terrified of the notion that ISIL may be defeated. As a result the US' main role in the coalition has been to delay and sabotage any ISF effort to liberate any part of Iraq from ISIL. For example in September 2014 the ISF launched an operation to liberate Fallujah and Ramadi on the expectation they would receive coalition air-support. Obama however decided to completely abandon them and start randomly bombing Syria instead.
Then of course there was the recent scandal of the US attempting to tip off ISIL by publicly announcing their plans to liberate Mosul. This is something the US have since been forced to apologise for.
Obviously the Iraqis have not been prepared to wait for Obama's term to end before liberating their country so have been forced to rely on people who are prepared to take action. With the US dominating the coalition this has meant Iraq's neighbour Iran who are not part of the coalition.
The main problem that this has produced is that with the coalition taking responsibility for Iraq's formal security forces (army, police etc) Iran has only been able to provide support to Iraq's Shia militias (PMF is the umbrella term). Although I've yet to achieve Obama levels of anti-Iranian psychosis I have never been a fan of militias because they lack the discipline of professional soldiers that is needed to carry out an effective battle plan. So while I think the criticism of the Tikrit operation have been overstated it could have been better organsied and carried out a lot faster and more decisively.
The other big problem I have with militias is that this lack of discipline often translates into human rights abuses against the civilian population. Although it's hardly comparable to ISIL or even the other rebel groups in Syria there have been very concerning stories emerging about the PMF's behaviour in villages such as Amerli. If events hadn't overtaken me I would have liked to have spent today focusing on that in detail because it is simply not acceptable for a host of tactical reasons if nothing else.
I have also been very concerned that the PMF are all Shias. In itself I don't see this is as a problem but ISIL's entire ideology is that they are fulfilling a prophecy that by capturing the Levant they will bring about God's arrival on earth to lead them in an apocalyptic battle against an army of Shia unbelievers. That Shia army will be raised in what is now approximately modern day Iran. Therefore I think that anything which will allow ISIL to claim that their prophecy is coming true should be avoided at all costs.
In response to the US' joining of the Tikrit operation the PMF have withdrawn in protest. Hopefully then this will mark the moment that Obama accepts that ISIL need to be defeated and the operation can continue in the professional manner that we all know the US military are capable of.
20:25 on 26/3/15 (UK date).
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment