Operation Featherweight: Month 8, Week 4, Day 3.

On June 7th Turkey will hold its General Election. For the first time Turkey's Kurdish parties will compete as part of a joint list that requires them to meet a threshold of 10% of all votes cast in order to win any seats in Parliament.

If they fail to reach that threshold there will be no Kurdish representation in the Turkish Parliament whatsoever. However if they do achieve this the Kurdish parties will likely be the main power broker as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attempts to alter the nation's constitution to massively increase his power.

In order to justify relying on the Kurds for support in preparation for the election Erdogan is trying to rush through a peace agreement with the militant Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) that would see the PKK disarm. With the PKK playing a strong role supporting the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria it is really not the time for the Kurds to be handing over their weapons. The entire peace process very nearly collapsed towards the end of 2014 when Turkey seemed to side with ISIL in their attempts to over-run the Kurdish city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab.

Also this past weekend has seen the spring equinox which is considered the start of the new year (Nowruz) by the Kurds and other ethnic groups such as the Pashtuns and Turkics (including Chinese Uighers) who were part of the ancient Persian Empire.

As a result of everyone being busy celebrating or being too afraid to rock the boat politically information about how the YPG's fight against ISIL is progressing has all but dried up. I am particularly concerned about what is happening in the Cizire Canton which sits in the north-east of Syria because the last I heard the town of Serekanyie/Ras al-Ayn at the north-west of the canton and the village of Tell Tamr at the south of the canton were both being subjected to a sustained and co-ordinated ISIL offensive. I hope though the fact that I am not hearing bad news means that the YPG have been able to withstand this offensive.

Nowruz celebrations in Hasakah City which sits at the very south of the Cizire Canton were spoiled somewhat on Friday (20/3/15) by twin car bombs that targeted revellers killing 35 and wounding 150. Although they inflicted a significant death toll these bombings weren't particularly alarming because control of Hasakah City has long been disputed between the YPG and ISIL.

Therefore the fact that ISIL were able to carry out twin attacks within the YPG controlled area of the city doesn't indicate that they have been able to gain territory. It does though highlight that Hasakah is a combat zone and therefore not really an appropriate place for civilians or civilian celebrations to be held.

On Sunday (22/3/15) the Turkish government went public with the case of 11 medical students which it allowed to travel into Syria to join up with ISIL. Seven of the 11 are British nationals while two are Sundanese, one is American and the other is Canadian. The Turks believe the group are providing medical services in Tel Abayd which is the last ISIL controlled town between the Cizire and Kobane Cantons in northern Syria.

This announcement seems to be the Turks latest play in the unseemly politicisation of the case of three British teenage girls who travelled to join ISIL at the end of February. The nationalities of these individuals that Turkey has decided to highlight puts them in close discussion with the British, US and Canadian governments along with - to a lesser extent - the Sudanese government.

The fact that they appear to be providing medical services to ISIL rather then performing a combat role is intended to allow the Turks to put forward an argument that it should be allowed to facilitate the transit of ISIL recruits under certain circumstances. Legally this is a nonsense because if they are providing support to ISIL in any form they are responsible for ISIL's crimes and should be treated as such. However the US and the UK have been very sloppy on this point continuing to allow ISIL to be supported under the guise of "humanitarian efforts."

The rumour that the group are located in Tel Abayd is very specific because it is very hard for the US-led coalition to explain why ISIL are continued to be allowed to remain in control of the town not least because it is being used as a base to attack Serekanyie which is a major border crossing between Turkey and Syria. That is of course a border that Turkey does not seem capable of securing.

At around 18:00 on 23/3/15 (UK date).

Edited at around 19:35 on 23/3/15 (UK date) to add;

Within Iraq the operation to liberate Tikrit has been suspended. Far from being a failure of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) this strikes me as being a sensible tactical decision because it would possible for the ISF to quickly capture the city's presidential compound where the remaining ISIL fighters are holed up by attacking with air-strikes and artillery. However this will likely completely destroy that section of the city and endanger the lives of ISF fighters.

Therefore it makes much sense to wait and map out the area because while the ISIL fighters may have been very highly motivated to fight and die for their cause when the operation that morale is likely to fade as they realise they're cornered with dwindling supplies.

ISIL's original plan for the defence of Tikrit seemed focused on withdrawing the majority of their forces to the al-Hawaija district to the north-east of the city. Fortunately ISIL's plan to counter-attack Tikrit from the al-Hawaija district was thwarted when the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga launched an offensive to clear out the area at the same time the Tikrit operation began. Having established a solid front-line some 18km (11 miles) from the town of al-Hawaija the Peshmerga have continued to clear ISIL fighters from the rural villages in the area.

Up in Iraq's Kurdish region in the north of the country it has really settled into a waiting game with the Peshmerga holding their positions until forces can become available to allow ISIL to be driven back further. However ISIL have continued to launch harassment type raids on the Peshmerga front-lines. Although these are frequently and quickly repelled especially when coalition air-strikes are provided they are using up Peshmerga resources and Peshmergas are being killed and injured.

In fact yesterday it was confirmed that since fighting began in August 2014 over 1,150 Peshmerga have been killed and over 5,600 have been wounded. Obviously these fighters will have to be replaced which is a task that becomes more difficult at the number of casualties increases as a result of ISIL harassment raids. Therefore it further highlights that this waiting game cannot go on indefinitely and the coalition needs to start taking decisive action against ISIL.

On Thursday (19/3/15) ISIL released a video showing the beheading three Peshmerga that it had been holding hostage in Mosul. This was followed up by another video today showing another hostage Peshmerga being beheaded. I think ISIL's main motivation behind this latest wave of beheadings is that they are aware that it is Nowruz and are trying to ruin the celebration for the Kurds in an effort to demoralise and intimidate them.

However the four hostage executed were part of a group of 21 that ISIL paraded in cages back in February. At the time I felt this was being done in an effort to force the coalition - the Peshmerga in particular - into agreeing to stop its offensives in the Mosul area in return for the release of the hostages. Although it's not been confirmed rumours have begun to emerge that ISIL have begun to pull back from al-Hawaija to Mosul and from the outskirts of Mosul into the city centre in order to consolidate their grip on the city. Under those circumstances it seems that ISIL would be desperate to re-start negotiations over the fate of their Peshmerga hostages by showing that they are prepared to kill them.

While I don't see it as hugely relevant I should mention that on Tuesday (17/3/15) the Syrian government shot down a US Predator drone over the coastal Latakia province. What I suspect happened is that the drone had been involved in operations above Syria's northern provinces that are held by ISIL and was crossing Latakia province which is firmly under Syrian government control in order to loop out over the Mediterranean sea in order to return to its base in Jordan without flying over the southern area of the country where the majority of Syrian government positions are located.

One thing that may have made the Syrian government extra sensitive about the US flying armed drones over it positions is that the noises coming out of the US recently seem to indicate that the US is still not convinced it's mission is to defeat ISIL rather then ally with it to attack the Syrian government. For example despite the use of chemical weapons by ISIL being widespread in both Iraq and Syria the US only seems to have been interested in a single use of chlorine gas in Syria presumably because that is the only one they can attempt to blame on the Syrian government.

Mainly though I think the drone incident further highlights just how difficult Turkey is making this operation. After all if NATO countries are flying missions over northern Syria the most obvious place for them to be based is the NATO member that sits on Syria's northern border.

20:30 on 23/3/15 (UK date).