The State of the Union 2015.

Last night US President Barack Obama gave the annual State of the Union (SOTU) address to Congress. Of the 68 SOTU's that have been televised this one was delivered to the most overwhelmingly Republican controlled Congress. As such in the face of such a comprehensive rejection by the electorate of both his policies and his party you would have expected Obama as a Democrat President to be contrite as he attempted to re-launch the lamest of lame duck Presidencies.

Unfortunately Obama has always had significant problems accepting facts that he disagrees with so seemed to be painfully unaware of his surroundings. At one point he even claimed that he had no more election campaigns to fight because he had won them all. This comment was met with a stony silence by 70-75% of the chamber although obviously the footage being circulated by the White House itself ignored that by disregarding any wide shots in favour of a tight focus on the President and the small group of his supporters seated to the right of the podium.

In the speech itself Obama again repeated the mistakes of the mid-term election campaign by focusing almost exclusively on the economy at the expense of almost every other issue. The economy took up around 60% of the speech which is unusual when the Union is in a state of war as it currently is. Fortunately there was a small sign of progress from the mid-terms with Obama seeming to acknowledge that although the global economy has begun to emerge from one of the worst recessions in history many everyday Americans are not feeling the effects. Unfortunately rather then offering a solution Obama tried to exploit these concerns to force through a range of policies that would make the American public more dependent on the Federal government and therefore Obama's Democrat Party.

For example there were plans to introduce Child care tax credits. This is a policy that has been lifted from the UK Labour Party who introduced them in 2003. Central to Labour's 2010 General Election campaign was a thinly veiled threat that if the electorate dared to vote against Labour they would be stripped of tax credits. Needless to say this strategy failed and Labour were kicked out of power. There was also Obama's plan for two years of free - at the point of use - community college. Again this is simply a rehash of a UK Labour Party policy that was introduced way back in 1998. Over the past 17 years this change has done little to close the skills gap in the UK but because if 18-20 year olds are in full time education they're not classed as unemployed the policy should make Obama's economic miracle seem even more miraculous

Obama's plan of how to fund these new welfare programs is quite simple - he intends to increases taxes across the board. The main tax increase will be the closing of the so-called trust fund loophole that allows the very rich to avoid paying inheritance tax. This is actually a very sensible policy and one that the Republicans would be very unwise the block because although unpopular inheritance tax is essential to prevent a society from turning into a patrimony where all the wealth rapidly ends up in the hands of a few very rich people. However with Obama estimating that closing this loophole will raise around USD210bn you can't help be feel that rather then spending it all on more welfare he could also cut taxes on the lowest earners by raising the income tax threshold to prevent his proposed increase in the minimum wage turning into a tax on job creation.

Long after most people had dozed off Obama finally changed the subject and dedicated roughly 10% of his speech to foreign policy. Here Obama told possibly the most whopping lie that has ever been uttered in a SOTU by claiming that he had ended America's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Although it was kept quiet by Obama the US' mission in Afghanistan most certainly did not end in 2014 as he had planned. Instead some 50% of US troops deployed to Afghanistan are still there and will remain there for the foreseeable future. The reason for Obama's dramatic U-turn in Afghanistan has been the spectacular failure of Obama's premature withdrawal from Iraq where US troops left only to be sent back in again as part of a whole new war.

On that current war in Iraq Obama did acknowledge that it is taking place but claimed that it will take a long time and that it will eventually be won. However he offered no explanation of why a war that should have lasted for little more then a month has now dragged on for more then five. Nor did Obama acknowledge the delays he is imposing are allowing the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to move resources out of Iraq and Syria and start to blend into the background reducing the likelihood that they will ever be defeated.

While he went to great lengths to avoid directly linking the two Obama also made reference to the increased threat to global security that his painfully slow war against ISIL has produced by finally acknowledging that a series of terror attacks took place in Paris, France between January 8th and 11th. Sadly this only seems to have been the product of a plan by members of Congress to show their support for the victims of those attacks by waving pencils during Obama's speech. When details of this plan began to emerge yesterday the White Houses' response was extremely bitchy to say the least with them demanding the names of any member of Congress that was planning to participate. Therefore I can't help but feel that without the protest Obama would have continued to try and pretend that no attacks had taken place and everything he is doing is just wonderful.

Being forced to acknowledge the Paris attacks was particularly embarrassing for Obama because he then went on to cite the sanctions against Russia as an example of his leadership on the world stage. This was an odd example for Obama to use because it's accepted by all concerned that Obama has only imposed sanctions on Russia because he has been ordered by Saudi Arabia to punish Russia for its opposition to Saudi backed Islamic terrorism including ISIL. Plus when you factor in the damage done to the Eurozone economy (including France) by the sanctions the US ecomonic recovery suddenly doesn't look so great.

It also seems strange that Obama decided to cite sanctions against Iran as another shining example of his global leadership. While there are many to choose from the Iran sanctions represent one of the biggest failures of Obama's foreign policy from a time when his expected Democrat successor Hilary Clinton was Secretary of State. In fact most of the international work being done regarding Iran at the moment is trying to unpick the damage done by Obama's intervention in an issue he clearly hasn't understood in the slightest.

Reflecting the spectacular lack of detail Obama gave to foreign policy compared to the economy he also found time to squeeze Cuba into those 10 minutes. I'm not even sure if Cuba really counts as foreign policy because much like the Superbowl internationally sanctions on Cuba are considered a weird thing from the 1960's that only Americans do. As such Obama's attempts to end the embargo will have little to no impact internationally. They will though have a huge impact on domestic politics with the Hispanics who will be disproportionally benefit from Obama's immigration actions also gaining the most from open travel with Cuba. Therefore I think that rather then being a foreign policy issue Obama's campaign to end the embargo is more about importing a fresh wave of Democrat voters further increasing the tension with a Republican Congress.

Obama also used a short period of the speech to raise the issue of climate change and re-affirm his commitment to see a global deal on the issue signed in Paris, France at the end of 2015. This is an issue that I have been working on and the majority of my work involves allaying the twin fears that Obama will not be able to get such a deal through Congress and that the Gulf States will use Islamic terrorism to intimidate nations into not signing up to a deal. Nigeria who are currently dealing with Boko Haram are a prime example of a developing nation that has a lot to gain by signing up to the new deal.

If Obama is going to persist with immigration action which he himself admits is un-Constitutional and undermines the values of democracy which Obama claims to support by referencing the Voting Rights Act then Congress are going to have to block it and possibly even impeach him. If the threat of Islamic terrorism is going to be reduced then Congress will also have to block Obama's plans to fight ISIL because they are not fit for purpose. Faced with all that aggression and confrontation from Obama it is unlikely that Congress will be in any mood to do him any favours by ratifying a climate change deal.

As such is no deal is signed at the end of 2015 a significant part, if not all, of the blame will rest very firmly on Obama's shoulders.

The remaining 15 minutes of the speech was really just Obama waffling platitudes. As part of that he re-affirmed his commitment to close Guantanamo Bay which he claims is helping to fuel Islamic extremism. To me this further served to underline the fact that Obama really doesn't understand  the current terrorist threat. In the past some Muslims may have been radicalised by the US' mis-treatment of prisoners but this new wave of terrorism is being fuelled by a sectarian spilt within Islam that Obama himself is helping to fuel by continuing to make up lies about Shia governments in Iraq, Iran, Syria and Yemen. Faced with this new threat there may actually be a need to keep Guantanamo Bay open and rushing to close it by sending Sunni Jihadist prisoners back to places like Qatar and Yemen is certainly not helping.

Obama's main message though was of the need for bipartisanship and co-operation. This seems to be a clear indication that rather then attempting to govern Obama intends to spend much of this year doing stupid things that Congress is forced block so the Democrats can bitch about obstructionist Republicans and their do nothing Congress. This is obviously sad news for anyone who was hoping for an end to posionous partisan politics.

17:30 on 21/1/15 (UK date).