Operation Featherweight: Week 5, Day 2.

It turns out that the US has carried out further air-strikes in Iraq following the killing of US journalist Steven Sotloff on Tuesday (2/9/14). Between Wednesday (3/9/14) and Thursday (4/9/14) they carried out three air-strikes in the Mosul Dam area that destroyed two "technical" armed trucks and an observation post belonging to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Unfortunately the US has not been prepared to confirm whether those strikes took place on Wednesday or Thursday.

Between Thursday and Friday (5/9/14) the US carried out four air-strikes again all in the vicinity of the Mosul Dam. These strikes were more destructive destroying 1 observation post, 3 mortar positions, 1 Humvee, 1 technical and 1 support truck. Again though the US is not confirming the exact date of the strikes so there could be a degree of overlap with certain targets being counted twice. Between Friday and today the US carried out two air-strikes close to Arbil. These strikes destroyed 4 Humvees, 1 Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC), 1 technical and 1 support truck. The strikes also damaged a further Humvee and a support truck.

On the ground far away from the US air-strikes the Iraqi forces backed by the Kurdish Peshmerga and Shia militias from Baghdad have continued to mop up the villages close to the town of Amerli that was liberated from ISIL on Sunday (31/9/14). The main focus has been towards the north of Amerli towards the city of Hawija which is roughly 150km (90miles) south of Arbil and 75km (45miles) west of Kirkuk. On Thursday they entered the town of Tuz Khurma amid heavy fighting which saw five Iraq/Kurdish troops and at least 13 ISIL fighters killed. However they were able to liberate the town forcing ISIL to flee into Hawija itself. It seems that today Iraqi/Kurdish forces have either begun or are preparing for an assault on Hawija with reports of Iraqi air-strikes in the city. Unfortunately because the Iraq Air Force are not as well equipped as the US Navy there are reports that one air-strike has struck a hospital killing 7. This is unlikely to make the task of retaking Hawija any easier because it is a majority Sunni town meaning that no-one is in any rush to send poorly trained Shia militiamen charging in.

Iraqi/Kurdish forces have also been fighting for control of the main highway between Samarra which is under government control and Tikrit which is under ISIL control. This is obviously a precursor to government forces launching an offensive to liberated Tikrit itself. It has been reported that Abu Hajar al-Suri - senior member of ISIL and close aide to its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - was killed in a reported Iraqi air-strike close to Tikrit.

On the international front both the US President Barack Obama and the Secretary of State John Kerry have been attending the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Summit in the UK. Amongst other things they were attempting to form a coalition to join in with military action against ISIL. Essentially other NATO members bit their hands off at the offer with the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Poland, Denmark all signing up alongside Turkey which is NATO's only majority Muslim member. They are also joined by Australia which although not technically a NATO member is a very close military ally of both the UK and Canada.

Unfortunately though a 10 nation coalition is apparently not broad enough for the US to start drawing up a plan to take on ISIL so Kerry is still scheduled to undertake a tour of the middle-east to drum up more support. However as Kerry has yet to confirm when this tour will begin let alone which nations it will include this still feels very much like a delaying tactic on the part of the US.

I suppose though it does give me an opportunity to discuss this claim that any coalition will need to be made up of Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar and the operation may take anything up to three years because ISIL enjoy such deep support amongst Muslims in the region. In short these claims are nonsense dreamt up by Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar in order to discourage western nations from taking action. They are then repeated by western politicians who are either too naive to realise that they are being lied to or are themselves simply looking for an excuse to avoid taking action. In reality the situation in Syria/Iraq is very similar to the situation faced in Mali towards the end of 2012 and the beginning of 2013.

The situation in Mali arose from militant Islamists being armed and trained in combat - particularly the use of technicals in fast moving columns - to overthrow the Libyan government. Once that had been achieved these fighters formed two main Islamist groups - Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MOJWA) - took their weapons and travelled south to northern Mali. Their aim was to set up an Islamic State in an area of northern Mali that is roughly the same size as France or Texas and roughly five times larger than the area currently held by ISIL in Syria and Iraq.

At the time this area of northern Mali was already in dispute between the Malian government and the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA). As ethnic Tuareg's the MNLA saw themselves as being oppressed by a national government that didn't represent them and wished to set up an independent homeland known as Azawad. They saw the advance of the Islamists as an opportunity to bolster their numbers and finally force the hated government out of their territory so joined an alliance with AQIM and MOJWA.

Within southern Mali a young army Captain by the name of Amadou Sanogo also saw an opportunity to promote himself from a lowly Captain to President of the entire nation. So he mounted a Coup d'etat and overthrew the government of Amadou Tomani Toure. Unfortunately this led to the government of Mali totally collapsing which was rapidly followed by the collapse of the Malian army. With no opposition the AQIM, MOJWA, MNLA coalition rapidly advanced eventually taking the southern town of Douentza some 725km (435miles) from the capital Bamako in September 2012.

Eventually in Januray 2013 France intervened to fight AQIM and MOJWA - by that point the MNLA had broken off their links - and despite effectively having to rebuild both the Malian government and the Malian army from the ground up were able to defeat the Islamists in just three and a half weeks. Although they lacked the US' substantial air power the French troops were very much helped by the fact that in every town they entered they were celebrated by the local residents as liberators. That is because despite being Muslims themselves the residents of northern Mali very rapidly learnt that the ideology of AQIM and MOJWA had very little to do with Islam. Compared to ISIL AQIM and MOJWA are very much considered moderates.

While I don't want to get into specifics simply to prove my point there is growing evidence that the residents of Syria and Iraq feel the same way about ISIL as Malians felt about AQIM and MOJWA. For example in Syria's neighbour Lebanon the latest craze is for people to burn the ISIL flag and then post pictures/video on the Internet. The reaction from Muslim members of Lebanon's government has been to express anger that ISIL have used the Shahada ("There is no god but Allah, Muhammed is his prophet") in their flag in an effort to disguise their acts as the acts of all Muslims.

So I actually think the NATO estimates of the operation against ISIL taking up to three years include the two years it will take for Obama's Presidency to expire followed by about a month of actual fighting.


21:20 on 6/9/14 (UK date).