Monday, 8 September 2014

Operation Featherweight: Month 2, Week 1, Day 2.

Iraqi and Kurdish Peshmerga forces backed by Shia militia's from Baghdad have continued to mop up towns and villages such as Tuz Khurma in the Kirkuk and Saladin provinces after liberating the town of Amerli on August 31st (31/8/14) from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

This is always a slow process because after liberating an area the incoming forces need to dismantle any defences and booby traps that have been left behind. They then need to gather local intelligence before going house to house to recover any remaining fighters or weapons that have been left behind. Until this process has been completed an area can't properly be considered secure allowing troops to move onto the next area. As a result Iraqi forces have not yet begun to move into positions to retake the city of Hawija if indeed that is there next objective.

Over the weekend Kurdish Peshmerga forces continued their advances across the mountains and plains stretching across the northern Dahuk and Ninevah provinces. ISIL have now been cleared well away from the Sinjar mountains and on Sunday (7/9/14) the Peshmerga took control over Mount Zartak and the surrounding plains. This leaves the Peshmerga in complete control over all the high ground overlooking the city of Mosul which puts them in a very strong position should they move in to liberate Mosul itself.

Despite the advances of Iraqi government forces in recent days it seems ISIL still have some fight left in them. Today they pushed back against the advances made in Saladin province with a fresh attempt to seize the town of Dhuluiya which is around 70km (42miles) north of Baghdad and 125km (75miles) south east of Tikrit. The assault began shortly before dawn with twin suicide bombers detonating Humvees packed with explosives at a tribal gathering inside the town. This was followed up by a traditional ground assault both by land and by river backed by battlefield weapons such as mortars and heavy machine guns. After two hours of intense fighting the assault was broken and ISIL were forced back.

Dhuluiya actually provides quite an interesting example of what is happening on the ground in Iraq because it is a Sunni dominated town. However contrary the intelligence assessments that US President Obama appears to be working from the residents of Dhuluiya have not welcomed ISIL with open arms. Instead they have spent the last two or so months fighting hard to resist ISIL and have formed strong alliances with neighbouring Shia dominated towns in their fight. They are though getting increasingly frustrated with the lack of support they are being given in their fight complaining that much like Amerli not enough is being done to keep them supplied with food, medical supplies and ammunition.

The US is still very much debating whether and how much support to provide in the fight against ISIL. On Sunday they carried out an as yet undisclosed number of air-strikes against undisclosed targets close to the Haditha Dam in Anbar province. Essentially what has been going on there is that Iraqi forces as still very much in control of Haditha Dam. However since the fall of Anbar province back in January 2014 ISIL have been constantly threatening to seize the dam - which is the second largest in Iraq - and it has come under intermittent attack by heavy weapons and mortars. Sunday's air-strikes represent the US' first strikes in the predominately Sunni Anbar province. They are also very far away from the US' stated area of operations close to Arbil leading the US to declare that the strikes were necessary to protect US citizens in Iraq who would be endangered if Haditha Dam was captured or destroyed. As with Mosul Dam this is perfectly valid reasoning.

As such the main target of Sunday's strikes seems to have been the US public. The intention being to test out whether they would tolerate the US expanding its operations to defeat ISIL rather then simply protecting US citizens. As the US is already spending the money and putting its people at - an albeit tiny - risk by flying combat operations over Iraq I'm struggling to think of a reason why the US shouldn't also carry out an effective operation against ISIL. However I'm sure that quite a few Democrat members of Congress who are hoping to campaign in the November elections on how successful Obama was at ending the war in Iraq will probably see that differently.

On the diplomatic front the US State Department is rather childishly refusing to publicly comment on whether John Kerry has started his tour of the middle-east or what nations he will be visiting. However you may be able to glean some clues from the fact that Arab League held an extraordinary session in Cairo, Egypt over the weekend. At that meeting the Arab League declared ISIL to be a "threat to the existence to all Arab states" and authorised the use of "all political and military solutions" against them. Added to the agreement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) on Friday (5/9/14) that brings the total number of nations in the coalition against ISIL to 32 made up primarily of Arab nations.

With it being made abundantly clear that the US is really the only holdout in the fight against ISIL Obama's hand has been forced so he has promised to make an announcement of how he intends to fight ISIL on Wednesday (10/9/14). Based on the way that Obama has conducted himself so far in the conflict and his Presidency in general this is unlikely to be a precursor to the necessary intensification of the US' operation. Instead it is likely to simply be an announcement that that US will expand its Rules of Engagement (RoE) beyond merely protecting US citizens. However the operation itself is likely to continue at its current low intensity level of pin-prick strikes only against a wider range of targets.

After all Obama's main objective here seems to be to protect ISIL at all costs while making the conflict last for as long as possible.

16:25 on 8/9/14 (UK date).


No comments: