Operation Featherweight: Month 2, Week 3, Day 3.

Overnight the US along with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Jordan and Bahrain have launched a large air campaign in northern Syria. This campaign has used dozens of attack aircraft alongside Cruise missiles and according to some reports is still ongoing. As a result it is quite difficult to assess what exactly has happened meaning that this post should be considered a work in progress.

What is immediately obvious though it despite their claim that these strikes have been carried out against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) they have actually been focused on another group known as the Khorasan Group who are a declared enemy of ISIL. The Khorasan Group are also not members of Al Nusra Front (ANF) and as such are not covered by United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution  2170 (2014). As such there appears to be absolutely no legal basis for this action. The involvement of Saudi Arabia and Qatar who have been engaged in a completely illegal war against Syria for the past three and a half years is also deeply problematic.

We are currently at the start of the opening of the annual session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). US President Obama has already made it perfectly clear that he intends to use this two week meeting to produce another UNSC resolution on the use of force on Syria that goes far beyond 2170. As such the primary purpose of these strikes appears to be to bully the UNSC into passing a resolution that will allow Saudi Arabia and Qatar to bomb Syria at will.

You will of course note that the US is still refusing to use this level of force against ISIL within Iraq. Therefore the intention appears to be to force ISIL into a safe haven on the Syria/Iraq border from where they can be used as an excuse to attack Syria whilst still destabilising Iraq.

As such unless any proposed resolution strictly defines the groups that can be attacked in Syria and excludes Saudi Arabia and Qatar from any attacks I think I can hear Russia and China's veto pencils being sharpened as I write.


10:35 on 23/9/14 (UK date).

Edited at around 12:15 on 23/9/14 (UK date) to add; 

Very little is known about the Khorasan Group because they are so new that US intelligence only acknowledged their existence five days ago on September 18th (18/9/14). However it seems that the Khorasan Group aren't in fact a terrorist group in their own right. Instead they appear to be a number of almost special forces trainers that Al Qaeda have sent to Syria to strengthen groups fighting ISIL. As such attacking them obviously strengthens ISIL.

To say that attacking the Khorasan Group is a legal grey area is a massive understatement. They are most certainly not covered by UNSC 2170(2014) meaning that the Arab states involved in the operation have no legal basis to do so. The US however will attempt to argue that because they are associated with Al Qaeda (ANF are a separate, allied group) it has the authority to attack them under its 2001 Authorisation of Military Force Against Terrorists. As that formed the basis for the 2002 Iraq resolution which was rejected by the UNSC this pretty much puts international law back to the arguments that were being had at the time of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

The name "Khorasan Group" also seems an extremely strange one for a predominately Sunni group like Al Qaeda to be using because it actually a Persian word meaning; "The place where the sun rises." As the main Persian speaking country is Iran Khorasan is also the name of several provinces in north-eastern Iran which until 2004 were known simply as "Khorasan Province." As such the name appears to have been assigned to the terror group by US or more likely Gulf intelligence in an effort to strengthen ISIL by portraying them as the true Sunnis and anyone fighting against them as Shia infidels because the majority of Persians are Shia. By attacking them Saudi Arabia and Qatar in particular seem to be attempting to use them as a metaphor for Syria's Shia dominated government which it has long considered "Terrorists" because they simply refuse to bow to Saudi Arabia or Qatar's dominance of the region.

Also I should point out that today's strikes have in no way been carried out in response to ISIL's recent offensive against Syria Kurds. If that was the case the attacks would have focused on frontline positions such as artillery positions and armed columns. While this attack on ISIL's rear echelon command and control structures is going to disrupt their operations it is unlikely that effect will be felt on the frontlines for days if not weeks.

Finally I have to say that what I wanted to be doing now was talking about the Climate 2014 meeting on Climate Change that is taking place today as part of the UNGA. I think it is fair to say that the attacks by the oil producing nations on Syria are likely to disrupt this meeting somewhat to the point that Obama may actually use them as an excuse not to turn up to a meeting which he is supposed to be headlining.