Operation Featherweight: Week 4, Day 2.

If the situation in Iraq over the last couple of days could be summed up in a single word it would be "Stasis." It is almost as if everybody is waiting to see what will happen next.

The town of Amerli remains under siege from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). There continues to be no large scale plan to deliver urgent supplies to its 26,000 residents and there continues to be no plan to evacuate them. However the Iraqi military has managed to mount a small relief effort similar to the one seen on Mount Sinjar with helicopters delivering small amounts of aid and ammunition and evacuating small numbers of residents. As a result ISIL fighters remain unable to seize the town but Iraqi and Kurdish Peshmerga forces continue to lack the strength to break the siege and save the town. Today there are reports that the Peshmerga backed by Iraqi forces have launched a fresh attempt to break the siege with an assault on four sides. One thing that could aid Amerli is that ISIL fighters seem to be concentrating their forces elsewhere.

ISIL's main focus seems to be continuing their efforts to encircle the capital Baghdad in order to lay siege to it and cut it off from the countries main oilfields in the south east. To this end there was intense fighting in Mahmoudiya which is just 29km (17.5miles) south of Baghdad. As far as I can tell Mahmoudiya has not yet fallen to ISIL who are being held off by the Iraqi army and Shia militiamen who are also participating in the effort to re-take Amerli. Although it is a good thing that ISIL are being prevented from gaining more territory the involvement of militia's could present its own set of problems. Firstly militias are not trained to the standard of the regular army and are therefore more prone to carrying out human rights abuses. Secondly if they are successful these militias will likely expect some sort of reward either in terms of money or preferential treatment from the Iraqi government. This risks deepening secular tensions within Iraq which ISIL is already exploiting to its advantage.

One thing that may have helped to slow ISIL advance is that the Peshmerga have launched an offensive in Nineveh province to seize control of a strategically important road between the border with Syria and Mosul. This was making steady progress with the Peshmerga taking control off the Ain Zalah oil fields close to the road on Thursday (28/8/14). However since then ISIL have set fire to at least three oil wells creating an intense fire that has covered the area in thick black smoke which is delaying the Peshmerga's advance.

The US response to all this has been nominal at best. Since my previous post on the subject on Monday (25/8/14) the US has carried out just 14 air-strikes which succeeded in destroying 13 armed "technical" trucks, 2 Humvees, 1 tank and 5 supply/construction trucks. They also succeeded in damaging 2 technicals and 2 ISIL buildings/checkpoints. 12 of these strikes took place close to the Mosul Dam and 2 took place close to Arbil neither of which are within 200km (120miles) of the main combat areas. The cost of flying US aircraft over Iraq to effectively watch the fighting as it is taking place has been put at around USD7.5million per day meaning that so far the operation has cost USD173million.

Despite this large financial and humanitarian cost US President Obama's main priority seems to be slowing down the operation as much as possible. On Tuesday (26/8/14) it was announced that the US had expanded its operation to include reconnaissance flights over ISIL positions in Syria. Although this makes some sense because the more information you have about your enemy the better able you are to prioritise targets in order to do the maximum damage at the minimum risk it seems more like Obama trying to put up further barriers to taking effective action in Iraq. 

If the US wants to carry out airstrikes against ISIL positions in Syria they will have to seek the permission of the Syrian government if for no other reason then the Syrian government has modern air defence systems. This will involve the US having to recognise the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria which is something it has refused to do over the past three and a half years as it has attempted to help ISIL topple the Syrian government. Therefore Obama seems to be hoping that people in the US will baulk at this idea providing him with an excuse not to take effective action in Iraq.

Obama also appears to using the issue of Syria in an effort to reduce the international pressure on him to take action in Iraq. Having been shocked by the sheer brutality of ISIL's behaviour both the UK and Australia have been very vocal in their calls for military action to be taken to stop them with the UK even moving aircraft to Cyprus in preparation for that action only to be stood down at the US' request. On Wednesday (27/8/14) the US unofficially let it be known that it had contacted both the UK and Australia to ask them to take part in a military coalition against ISIL in Syria although both Britain and Australia deny that the US has made such a request.  

Obama's hope here seemed to be that because the UK in particular has been a very vocal supporter of the attempts to overthrow the Syrian government the prospect of having to acknowledge its legitimacy would cause them to back down. After all it would be very difficult for the UK to continue pursuing ruinous EU sanctions against Russia whilst at the same time admitting that Russia was in the right while they were in the wrong. Due to the Commonwealth link if the UK declined to join a military operation under such circumstances it is extremely unlikely that Australia would go it alone.

The UK's decision to raise the terror threat level on Friday (29/8/14) in response to ISIL and Australia's offer to aid the United Nations with intelligence gathering in Syria today both seem intended to indicate that the prospect of taking action in Syria frightens neither the UK nor Australia. However I think both nations are still waiting for the US to formally make the request.

Beyond putting around the rumour that it had asked the UK and Australia Obama on Thursday (28/8/14) announced that he would be sending Secretary of State John Kerry to the middle-east to build a coalition for action against ISIL. I think the hope here was that this would be viewed by US voters as Obama showing that he is different from George W Bush by seeking international agreement rather then taking unilateral military action. 

The problem for Obama is that this international coalition already exists and has already given permission for military action. On August 15th (15/8/14) the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) met and passed resolution 2170(2014) on both ISIL and Al-Nusra Front (ANF). This resolution called on nations to do everything in their power to stop both organisations and is a Chapter 7 resolution that authorises the use of military force. No member of the UN has challenged the passing of this resolution meaning that a global consensus on the issue has already been reached and the legal basis for action is in place.

As such the true purpose to Kerry's tour is to provide Obama with yet another delay. For example the tour isn't even scheduled to begin until the end of the NATO Summit on September 5th (5/9/14). Also while Obama thinks that it is important for this tour to take place he is as yet unable to actually name any of the nations it is important to consult with. As a result this tour has no agenda and therefore no predicted end date.

Sadly we are already seeing the effects of Obama's procrastination on the ground in Syria. When ISIL carried out their big June offensive they seized huge amounts of heavy weaponry and armoured vehicles from the Iraqi military. As Obama refused to intervene at the time ISIL have been able to transport large amounts of that weaponry into Syria. There they have used it attack and expel ANF from the north of Syria. 

In response the Al Qaeda linked ANF have regrouped in the small area of territory held by the US backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) close to the Israeli occupied Golan Heights. Over the past week ANF have attacked and defeated the FSA seizing control of the Quneitra border crossing. In the process they have kidnapped some 120 troops attached to the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). This has led to rumours that the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) has been forced to move up to take the positions that were lost by the UNDOF troops and today engaged in a battle with ANF to rescue 75 of those troops.

So we are now in a position where the moderate opposition in Syria is Al Qaeda and those forces are now face to face with the IDF on Israel's border. If ANF attack Israel they will have no option other then to fight back. This means that any future military action will be viewed as being in support of the hated 'Zionists' which will further inflame an already complex and dangerous situation. In short there is simply no more time left to waste.

21:20 on 30/8/14 (UK date).