As I said on Sunday (19/8/14) I thought it would be extremely unlikely for Israel and the Palestinian factions to negotiate an extension to the existing cease-fire. However on Monday (20/8/14) evening all parties did manage to cobble together a 24 hour extension to allow for further work on the existing proposal for a more long term cease-fire.
Although it was never officially declared I suspect the proposal on the table was the latest compromise suggested by the Egyptian mediators which involves Israeli restrictions on Gaza being gradually lifted in return for an absence of rocket fire and tunnel attacks from Gaza. While I've never been comfortable with the idea of Gaza becoming simply another Israeli suburb I thought this was generally quite a sensible proposal. The reintroduction of the normal flow of Israeli goods into Gaza would of course provide immediate relief to the people of Gaza but would have stopped short of providing Hamas with a clear victory by rewarding them for starting a war with Israel. The denial of such a victory is something that I consider very important both for the region as a whole and the Israeli government which has come under a lot of internal pressure - some justified, some less so - over its desire to seek a cease-fire in Gaza.
However in the meantime Hamas' failure to deliver a clear victory from this war has led to people in Gaza including the various factions to question whether Hamas can continue as the Gazan government. As a result one of the Palestinian factions decided to break the cease-fire by launching rockets into southern Israel at around 13:00 (16:00 local). I think the situation regarding the different Palestinian factions is rather well summed up by this clip from the Monty Python film "The Life of Brian"; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iS-0Az7dgRY
After all it is based on the different Palestinian factions in the 1970's. That all obviously raises questions within Israel about whether the complete demilitarisation of Hamas is in fact a sensible idea.
In the meantime though the firing of rockets into Israel left no option other then for the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) to conduct air-strikes against the rocket launch sites. Those Israeli air-strikes have in turn provoked a certain type of unity amongst the Palestinian factions prompting them all to start firing rockets into Israel. The IDF will of course continue to respond to these rocket launches in line with their standing Rules of Engagement (RoE).
On the diplomatic front the resumption of rocket fire has caused Israel to withdraw their negotiators from Egypt and the Egyptians to suspend their role as mediator. Hopefully though following a night of violence diplomatic efforts can resume tomorrow. After all Israel certainly has the capacity for a long war of attrition.
20:45 on 19/8/14 (UK date).
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