At 16:00 (19:00 local) yesterday both Israel and the Palestinian factions declared an open ended cease-fire bringing to an end the latest round of fighting in Gaza. As is sort of the form the start of the cease-fire was proceeded by a massive increase in rockets and mortars being fired from Gaza into Israel which brought the total for the day to 182.
However rather then being made up of almost constant fire this concentrated on intense barrages of mortar fire - often 20+ at a time - on civilian areas directly on the border. This was quite clearly an attempt by Hamas to kill as many Israelis as possible before the cease-fire came into effect. Hamas were partially successful when a barrage of fire minutes before the start of the cease-fire killed two men aged 43 and 55 on the Nirim Kibbutz in Eshkol. As such this seems like an appropriate moment for all the left-wingers who have been rounding on Israel during this conflict to go and find out what a kibbutz is.
Despite these two late deaths Israel did not retaliate and allowed the cease-fire to come into effect. In Gaza this was marked by a Hamas spokesman who declared it to be a victory for Hamas who had done what no Arab army have been able to do by defeating the Israeli army. Considering the death and destruction that Hamas brought on the people of Gaza over the past 50 days by starting this war I found his next claim that Hamas "had been the defenders of the Palestinian people and will now become the servants of the people" even harder to believe. However it did provide an insight into why Hamas chose to start this war with Israel.
Certainly since the end of the Cold War Hamas has been reliant on the support of Iran and Syria. They have also benefited from an Egyptian government that has been happy to turn a blind eye to their activities. This all changed in 2012 when Mohamed Morsi of Hamas' parent organisation the Muslim Brotherhood was elected President of Egypt and the Gulf Monarchies decided that Syria would be the next country to be overthrown as part of the so-called Arab Spring. The ensuing war meant that Syria was no longer in a position to support anyone and instead had to rely on support from Iran and Hamas' long term ally Hezbollah. Hamas however decided to throw their lot in entirely with Morsi and declared their support for groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) who were fighting the Syria government. This completely isolated Hamas from Iran and Hezbollah who continue to fight and die at the hands of ISIL in Syria.
Within a year the Egyptian people decided that they'd had enough of Morsi and he was ousted from power. This prompted Hamas to send fighters and weapons into Egypt to fight on behalf of the Muslim Brotherhood. In response Egypt closed the Rafah crossing removing a legal route for goods to flow in and out of Gaza. They also destroyed many of the smuggling tunnels into Gaza which not only provided Hamas with a steady flow of weapons but also a vital revenue stream from taxes levied on the smuggled goods. Added to the fact that Hamas was also clashing with the Fatah dominated Palestinian Authority (PA) who cut off funding to Gaza this crippled Hamas financially to the point that they were unable to pay salaries to any public sector workers in Gaza.
Needless to say this made Hamas spectacularly unpopular with the people of Gaza so they decided to start this war in a effort to convince Gaza that Israel was the bigger enemy then Hamas so they would start supporting Hamas as the people who were bravely protecting them from Israeli aggression.
With over 85% of their weapons stores destroyed and at least 800 of their fighters including at least 4 senior commanders killed it is easy to see what Hamas has lost during this war. It is much more difficult though to tell what they have won to back up their claim of victory not least because the exact details of the cease-fire agreement have yet to be made public. In fact I'm getting the distinct impression that the only thing firmly agreed in the cease-fire declaration is that the shooting will stop and all parties will meet up again in 30 days to start working out the details.
However it is clear that at the core of the agreement is the third compromise presented by Egypt. This will see Hamas drop their demands for air and sea ports in Gaza in return for fishermen being allowed to set sail up to 20 nautical miles off the coast. Israel will then discuss increasing the type and volume of goods flowing into Gaza and the number of visas issued to Gazans to travel into Israel in return for a cessation of violence on the part of Hamas. This essentially leaves Hamas where they were at the start of the conflict because it is a myth that Gaza has been under siege by Israel.
Since 2009 around 200 trucks loaded with goods including food, medical supplies and building materials along with hundreds of thousands of litres of cooking gas and gasoline pass through each of the five border crossings from Israel into Gaza every single day. This has continued throughout the war and is why Hamas were able to seriously injure several people at the Erez border crossing on Sunday (24/8/14). While Israel - like any other country - does technically restrict the flow of goods in and out of its borders the main cause of shortages in Gaza these days is that having not been paid for months people simply can't afford anything. The other major problem has been the stopping of the flow of cheaper goods from Egypt due to the closing of the Rafah crossing with Egypt which was done by Egypt in response to Hamas' sending of weapons and fighters to attack Egyptian soldiers and civilians.
If they are able to negotiate an increase in the flow of goods into Gaza and I suspect that Israel will be more then helpful in that effort although Hamas will need customers that is likely to mean even worse news for Hamas. The collection of excise duty (tax) on border crossings between Israel and Gaza is wholly the responsibility of Israel. Once they have removed their share the Palestinians share is handed over to the PA who then decide what money to send to Gaza. However Israel has frequently been known to withhold the Palestinian share from the PA who have also frequently been known to withhold funds from Gaza due to a split between Hamas and Fatah who dominate the PA. So unless Hamas can dramatically improve their relationship with Fatah and ideally with Egypt an increase in the flow of goods from Israel into Gaza could well end up making life there even more miserable rather then improving it.
Through its public statement since the cease-fire though Hamas seems extremely confident that its budget problems are about to be magically solved and all their employees will be paid all the money they're owed. This suggests to me that rather then securing any concession from Israel Hamas actually signed up to the cease-fire because Qatar offered them a huge bribe under the banner of "reconstruction efforts." This means that Hamas are fast on course for becoming just as corrupt and ineffective as Fatah and the burgeoning Palestinian state is set to be spilt apart as the West Bank becomes Saudi Arabia's Embassy in Israel and Gaza becomes Qatar's. After all if the Israel/Palestine conflict was resolved how would these Gulf Monarchs be able to show Zakat towards the Arab peoples?
So in summary even by the standards of wars between Israel and Palestine I think that this one has been particularly pointless meaning that there really has been no winners. However if I was forced to chose I would say that Israel has won although if someone launches an unprovoked attack on you stopping them is really the only victory you can achieve.
20:20 on 27/8/14 (UK date).
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