With the existing cease-fire between Israel and the Palestinian factions in Gaza due to expire at mid-night on Monday 18/8/14 (21:00/17/8/14 GMT) negotiators in Egypt are working hard to find a permanent solution or failing that a temporary extension to the existing cease-fire. Unfortunately all the indications at the moment is that neither of those is particularly likely and it must be said that once again the main sticking point has been Hamas.
Israel's initial offer that would see the lifting of restrictions on the flow of goods into Gaza, the release of Hamas prisoners detained on the West Bank and permission being granted for Gaza fishermen to set sail up to 20 nautical miles was rejected by Hamas. They of course were holding out for all that plus the opening of air and sea ports in Gaza along with the end to restrictions on people travelling from Gaza into Israel. As Hamas has made it very clear over the last couple of months that it intends to continue attacking Israel and Israeli civilians in particular there is no way that Israel can agree to a deal that makes it easier for Hamas to supply itself with weapons and launch attacks.
The gridlock over this offer led to Egypt to suggest a compromise deal. This would have seen Hamas defer the issue of the sea and air ports. It would also have seen the complex discussions about opening Gaza's border with Israel dropped in favour of opening Gaza's border with Egypt under the supervision of the Palestinian Authority rather then the Israeli government. This would have ended the blockade without threatening Israel's security while helping Hamas to establish an important stream of tax revenue. Unfortunately it seems that work on this compromise has also ground to a halt.
As a result in the past few days a new compromise has been suggested that would see a gradual loosening of the blockade by allowing an increasing variety and volume of goods into Gaza from Israel and an increasing number of people into Israel from Gaza providing Hamas refrains from using that increased freedom to attack Israel. If you want to continue the metaphor that the people of Gaza are being held in a large prison by Israel this compromise deal would represent them being moved to a lower security prison before being granted occasional day release and the finally paroled provided they could demonstrate they're no longer a threat to (Israeli) society.
Sadly progress on this compromise is also proving hard to find. If I'm being totally honest I think that Hamas are finding themselves somewhat overwhelmed by the technical complexity of a deal that sees you trying to weight tonnes of grain delivered against number of days without rocket fire and number of trips for dialysis treatment in Israel hospitals. The main problem though is Hamas' attitude which seems very much focused on getting some big announcement, any big announcement such as the lifting of the blockade that they can take back to the people of Gaza to show that this war has been worth it. I for one would be very hesitant to give Hamas any type of propaganda victory because if the situation is going to move forward they really need to get out of this mindset that picking fights with Israel leads to success when in fact it very often leads to failure
Complicating matters further Thursday (14/8/14) saw the first anniversary of the clearance of the protest camp at the Rabaa al-Adawiya Mosque in Cairo. This really marked the end of the Muslim Brotherhood government of Mohamed Morsi but also marked the start of a low intensity war between Hamas who are an off-shoot of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian government. This is a confrontation that somehow neither Hamas nor Egypt are winning because it has weakened Hamas by cutting off its supply lines in to Egypt while the constant violence and terrorist attacks by Hamas linked militants is derailing the Egyptian revolution by increasing public calls for better security.
No doubt irritated by Human Rights Watch (HRW) downright hysterical report on the Rabaa al-Adawiya clearance along with Hamas' continued intransigence Egypt are starting to show signs that they're losing patience in their role as mediator. In fact they've indicated that if progress isn't made on this latest compromise deal they won't be thinking up another one and will stop trying to find a negotiated solution. Such a decision of course will have little impact on either Egypt or Israel but does rather leave Hamas out of options.
If no extension of the cease-fire is agreed this really leaves Israel with two options of what to do next. Firstly they can conduct a long war of attrition with Hamas in which they respond with air-strikes to each rocket Hamas fires. Alternatively they can mount a short, sharp war that includes ground troops to clear out Hamas weapons stores and command centres in the sections of Gaza that were left untouched during the last incursion.
Although Israel certainly has the resources to win a long war of attrition I can't help but feel that the short, sharp war would be the better option because it certainly feels to me as though this situation has already dragged on for far too long.
15:20 on 17/8/14 (UK date).
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